We're on to Part 2 of The Big Offseason Key Number Extravaganza. Of course, the biggest number on the National League side of things is the $1.69 billion the Dodgers will spend on Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. Now that's an offseason. But what about the rest of the NL? Let's dig in.
Part 1: Key number for all 15 American League teams
Arizona Diamondbacks
The number: minus-3.3
That's the estimated wins below average the Diamondbacks pitching staff produced in 2023, according to Baseball-Reference.com. They're not the only World Series participant to have a below-average pitching staff -- of 238 World Series teams, 35 have hit that ignominious mark. The Diamondbacks weren't the worst of all time; that would be the 1913 Philadelphia A's at minus-8.2. The worst from the wild-card era? It's a tie between the 2006 Cardinals and 2012 Giants at minus-4.7. But if Arizona wants to play with the big boys over in Los Angeles -- at least in the regular season, to avoid the wild-card gauntlet again next year -- the pitching must improve.
To that end, they signed Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year, $80 million contract. I'm not completely convinced, though, that Rodriguez will give Arizona the strong No. 3 starter they are paying for. Rodriguez had an incredible six-start stretch in 2023 when he allowed two runs in 41.2 innings, but in 18 starts after that, his ERA was 4.19. His strikeout rate, while about league average, was more than 2 K's per nine innings lower than his peak in 2021. He also has qualified for the ERA title just once in his career. All that said, considering that Brandon Pfaadt teased a potential breakout season with his performance in October, Rodriguez might only have to be a reliable fourth starter.
Atlanta Braves
The number: .501
The Braves became the first team ever to slug .500 and they tied the 2019 Twins' all-time mark of 307 home runs -- doing it in a season in which home runs weren't nearly as plentiful as in 2019. It has been an interesting offseason so far for Alex Anthopoulos, as he essentially purchased outfielder Jarred Kelenic, hard-throwing lefty reliever Ray Kerr and utility infielder David Fletcher by taking on bad contracts (Marco Gonzales and Evan White, part of the Kelenic deal, were subsequently dealt while Matt Carpenter was released after being included in the Kerr trade). Now, the bullpen looks deep and I wonder if they'll simply wait to add to the rotation at the trade deadline if necessary.
What the Braves have is that offense. What can we expect in 2024? I looked at the top 15 offenses of the expansion era (since 1961), using the wRC+ total of the non-pitchers, and checked how each team did the following season. Those 15 teams declined an average of 75 runs. The biggest drop was the 1971-72 Orioles, who scored 223 fewer runs (trading Frank Robinson didn't help). The 2007-08 Yankees declined 179 runs. On the other hand, the 1975-76 Reds both cracked the list with the '76 club scoring 17 more runs. For the Braves, we should expect some regression from Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna and perhaps even Ronald Acuna Jr. (Although I wouldn't ever bet against him.). And don't overlook how durable the starting nine was in 2023: Everyone except catcher Sean Murphy played at least 138 games. It's not going out on a limb to predict the Braves won't score 947 runs again -- but it's also more than fair to expect they'll still lead the majors in runs.
Chicago Cubs
The number: 71
Cubs fans, starting to get frustrated with the lack of roster moves in an offseason that started by luring manager Craig Counsell across the NL Central, are now hoping for a reunion with Cody Bellinger. Maybe that happens, maybe not, but I think the Cubs can find a way to field a good offense even without Bellinger. There are plenty of 1B/DH options out there, and Chicago has Pete Crow-Armstrong ready to take over as a plus defender in center field. (Though his bat could take some more time to develop.) I'm more focused on starting pitching: The Cubs ranked fourth in the majors with 71 quality starts last season. Can they do that again -- or even improve?
Justin Steele led the way with 20 quality starts out of 30 outings in 2023. I'm buying his breakout, even as the rare starter who basically survives as a two-pitch guy. Some will say he tired in September when he had a 4.91 ERA, but he still had a 35/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Marcus Stroman is a free agent, so the Cubs have to fill his 15 quality starts out of 25 outings, perhaps with a new signing. But I can see potential gains made elsewhere. Jameson Taillon was just 9-for-29 and Drew Smyly 5-for-23 in quality starts; Taillon can do better while Jordan Wicks is a good bet to make the Opening Day rotation over Smyly. Javier Assad also showed positive signs when he started in the second half and Cade Horton has emerged as one of the top prospects in the minors, ready to make an impact in the second half. If they can sign somebody to replace Stroman, I think this should once again be a solid-to-strong rotation.
Cincinnati Reds
The number: 3.8
That's TJ Friedl's WAR in 2023 -- highest on the team. The Reds certainly are an exciting up-and-coming ballclub, but they need a couple of their promising young players to turn into stars -- in Elly De La Cruz's case, in terms of actual production and not just impossible highlight reels. Maybe it will be Matt McLain, who produced 3.7 WAR in 89 games. Maybe it's Spencer Steer, who led the team with 23 home runs and will move to left field. Maybe it's one of the young starters -- I still want to bet on Hunter Greene. De La Cruz will have to cut down on his strikeouts to make a bigger impact.
That's why the Reds' offseason has been mildly disappointing. Yes, they've finally spent a little money in free agency, which is a rare occurrence in Cincinnati, but Jeimer Candelario, Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan will make a combined $37 million in 2024 -- and what are they going to give you? Candelario was OK in 2023 (3.1 WAR) but not in 2022 (0.5). I do like Martinez as a swingman and wouldn't be surprised if he ends up making 20-plus starts, but Pagan is a flyball reliever heading to the wrong ballpark. Those three add depth, but $37 million can land a star player. I think that money could have been spent on a bigger impact player.
Colorado Rockies
The number: .29
On offense, only the White Sox had a worse walk-to-strikeout ratio than the Rockies' 0.29 walks for every strikeout. Colorado hitters ranked third in the majors in strikeouts and 26th in walks. The issue is apparent up and down the lineup. Brenton Doyle won a Gold Glove but hit just .203 with 151 strikeouts and 22 walks. Ryan McMahon struck out 198 times. Elehuris Montero had 111 whiffs and drew just 15 walks. Ezequiel Tovar had 166 strikeouts and 25 walks. Harold Castro, Michael Toglia, Brendan Rodgers, Kris Bryant ... it was a no-good, bad, terrible lineup. The Rockies were last in the majors in wRC+ and had the worst position player fWAR in franchise history. (Then there's the pitching, which had the third-worst fWAR in franchise history.)
The Rockies just aren't good at evaluating baseball players. Their young hitters haven't developed (a problem which extends down to the minors). Remember, they've been trying to win the past two seasons, increasing payroll from $105 million in 2021 to $172 million. They're going to have to score about 150 more runs and allow 100 fewer in 2024 just to get to .500. I'm not sure how that's going to happen.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The number: 200
The Dodgers won 100 games in 2023 even though they allowed 4.31 runs per game -- the most since 2007. The biggest issue with the pitching staff: Home runs. The Dodgers allowed 200 of them, their most since ... let's scroll through the years here ... since ever. More than the 185 allowed in the rabbit-ball season of 2019. More than the 192 allowed in 1999 during the peak of the steroid era. The starters were mostly to blame, giving up 132 home runs, 24th in the majors.
So welcome aboard Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow -- and welcome back, Walker Buehler. Shohei Ohtani -- we'll see you on board in 2025 (when Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin should also be recovered from injuries). For all of Yamamoto's accolades -- and at this point given the escalating hype and contract total, I envision a cross between Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez -- his greatest strength in Japan has been his ability to limit home runs: Just two allowed in 171 innings in 2023, six in 193 innings in 2022 and seven in 193 innings in 2021. It's clearly difficult to elevate the ball against him. To be clear, the home run environment in Japan is nothing like MLB. Indeed, the Japan Pacific League, where Yamamoto pitched, averaged just 3.45 runs per game in 2023. That's akin to the National League ... of 1968. Yamamoto should be great, but let's see how he transitions to a much different level of offense than he's used to in Japan.
Miami Marlins
The number: 666
Wipe that smirk off your face. That's referencing the runs the Marlins scored -- fewest in the National League. Look, the Marlins made the postseason -- although there's an easy case to be made that they were the worst playoff team of all time (minus-57 run differential). Still, they were in a spot that 18 other teams would have liked to be in last October. They went 33-14 in one-run games, one of the best records ever and a mark likely to regress in 2024. To make up for that, the Marlins will need to find more offense -- and Jorge Soler, their second-most productive hitter behind Luis Arraez, is a free agent.
To that end, the Marlins are reportedly shopping starter Jesus Luzardo for position player help. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix didn't exactly inherit a deep organization here, so finding offense won't be easy. The farm system is weak despite having a lot of high draft picks in recent seasons. In fact, their top two prospects are high school pitchers they just drafted (Noble Meyer and Thomas White), so they won't graduate hitters to the majors soon nor do they have many trade chips to land a needed bat. But trading Luzardo feels like filling one hole by creating another, especially with Sandy Alcantara out for the season. Maybe they get Max Meyer and Trevor Rogers back along with full seasons from Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera, but trading Luzardo would mean the Marlins need to replace 60 starts between him and Alcantara.
Milwaukee Brewers
The number: 11.73
The Milwaukee bullpen was second in the majors with a 3.36 ERA, but even that number undersells the clutch performance of the pen. The Brewers easily led the majors in relief win probability added, which factors in the game situation for each pitcher-batter result. Check out the top five teams:
1. Brewers: 11.73
2. Reds: 8.94
3. Blue Jays: 8.73
4. Dodgers: 6.66
5. Tigers: 6.37
That's the highest total by a bullpen since the 2015 Pirates, an impressive five wins better than the fourth- and fifth-ranked teams. The Brewers were 29-18 in one-run games and 10-5 in extra-innings games, finishing with 92 wins despite an average starting rotation and a below-average offense. Considering the Brewers haven't yet made any significant moves to upgrade that offense -- and I'm not sure 19-year-old top prospect Jackson Chourio is ready to make a major impact yet -- the bullpen once again looks like the key.
That's where we get to the departure of Craig Counsell, who had plenty of success managing a pen throughout his tenure -- and not just because he had elite closers in Josh Hader and now Devin Williams. The good news is pitching coach Chris Hook is still around to work with new skipper Pat Murphy. Can they extract the same great work from the likes of Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson, Hoby Milner and Elvis Peguero? The Brewers' 2024 hopes could depend on it.
New York Mets
The number: 125
That's how many more runs the Mets allowed in 2023 than in 2022. Broken down by role, the starters allowed 61 more runs while the relievers allowed 64 more runs. (It was a team effort!) The 2023 additions were mostly blameless: The Kodai Senga signing worked out and Justin Verlander was solid before he was traded while Jose Quintana made just 13 starts (and pitched well). The biggest culprits were actually the holdovers. Carlos Carrasco went from 3.97 ERA to 6.80; he allowed the same number of runs as in 2022 but in 62 fewer innings. Ouch. David Peterson went from a 3.83 ERA to 5.03, allowing 14 more runs while pitching just five more innings. Edwin Diaz's injury hurt New York's relievers, but the bullpen would have lacked depth even with a healthy Diaz.
The big offseason plan appeared to be "sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto," but now that he went to the Dodgers, the Mets will reportedly lay low -- more in retooling mode than all-in. This offseason, they've added Luis Severino and Adrian Houser for starting pitching depth. Severino is a complete wild card at this point while Houser is a solid back-of-the-rotation option. The pen still needs help.
But here's the other thing: The offense also declined, scoring 55 fewer runs, much of that total attributable to Jeff McNeil (27 runs worse) and Starling Marte (32 runs worse). McNeil's 2022 now stands out as a fluke when compared to 2021 and 2023. Marte's struggles were perhaps related to core surgery after the 2022 season, but he's now 35 so a comeback isn't guaranteed. In other words, even with Yamamoto, the Mets were hardly a sure thing for 2024.
Philadelphia Phillies
The number: .794
That was the Phillies' OPS in the second half -- good enough for fifth in the majors. In the first half, it was .742, 11th in the majors. Overall, the Phillies ranked sixth in OPS and eighth in runs scored. Make some park-factor adjustments and they ranked 10th in wRC+. In other words, a good offense -- but not elite, really, other than in August when the Phillies hit .287/.359/.548 and bashed 59 home runs. Maybe it wasn't a surprise then that the Phillies' offense stalled out at the wrong time in the NLCS. If the Phillies are going to compete with the Braves for a division title, they're going to need a more consistent attack.
That could happen. A full season from Bryce Harper will help. Trea Turner finally got it going in the second half, as did Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. On the other hand, all those guys plus Nick Castellanos will be 31 or older, so age is starting to be at least a little concern here. The Phillies' offseason focus so far has been on pitching -- re-signing Aaron Nola and pursuing Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- and there aren't many holes in the lineup, other than maybe left field, but I wonder if Dave Dombrowski will look to add another bat.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The number: 1
The Pirates return just one pitcher who threw at least 100 innings last season -- Mitch Keller, who ranked eighth in the majors with 194.1 innings pitched. Johan Oviedo was second on the team with 177.2 innings after making 32 starts, but he underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the season. Rich Hill, traded to the Padres at the trade deadline, was the only other pitcher to top 100 innings. This has been the ongoing theme for the Pirates since they last made the postseason in 2015. There have been seven full seasons since then and the Pirates have seen a starter make 25 starts just 15 times, barely two per year. Only Trevor Williams, from 2017 to 2019, has more than two such seasons.
They need to somehow stabilize the rotation. They acquired Marco Gonzales, a soft-tossing lefty coming off an arm injury who had FIPs over 5.00 in 2021 and 2022. Not exactly a move to inspire confidence. They signed Martin Perez, another lefty with below-average velocity. Perez's strong 2022 stands out as a fluke, but maybe he and Gonzales can each give 25 to 30 starts of non-horribleness? Still, the Pirates need to develop starters in house -- beginning with Paul Skenes, the 2023 No. 1 overall pick out of LSU who has the stuff to start the season in the rotation if the Pirates want to be aggressive. But who else is there? Quinn Priester wasn't ready for the majors. Luis Ortiz throws 96 mph, but batters hit .392 and slugged .722 against his fastball. Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, JT Brubaker? They need a couple of those guys to step up to stop the rotation churn.
St. Louis Cardinals
The number: 5.12
Last year, the Cardinals allowed more than five runs per game for the first time since 2007 -- not coincidentally, the last time they had finished with a losing record. The rotation ranked 26th in the majors in ERA (5.08), 29th in strikeout rate (17.4%) and 29th in batting average allowed (.289). The Cardinals don't like to play in free agency but were so desperate to add arms they went out of their comfort zone, signing Sonny Gray (3 years, $75 million), Kyle Gibson (1 year, $13 million) and Lance Lynn (1 year, $11 million). Let's just say they ended up playing it pretty safe here, even considering Gray's $75 million contract, the fifth-largest free agent deal in franchise history.
Will the rotation be better? Probably, but to be honest that's mostly due to the subtraction of the retired Adam Wainwright. Gray is coming off a great season in which he finished second in the AL Cy Young voting, but factoring in some regression he's essentially replacing Jordan Montgomery, just with two additional months. Lynn, coming off a 44-homer season, has to figure out what went wrong. Gibson has a 4.88 ERA over the past two seasons, but like Lynn has at least been durable. At 34, Gray is the youngest of the trio. I don't dislike the moves, but I'm not sure this will be the upgrade Cardinals fans wanted.
San Diego Padres
The number: .199
To state the obvious, the Padres are in a bit of disarray right now, after the death of owner Peter Seidler and with payroll being trimmed, Juan Soto and Trent Grisham on the Yankees, and Blake Snell and Josh Hader in free agency. Fernando Tatis Jr. looks to be a one-man outfield at the moment. There are a lot of issues for GM A.J. Preller to juggle here and not a lot of money to do it with. Still, here's a positive spin moving forward: Last year, the Padres had their share of ... let's just call it bad luck. They had the eighth-best run differential in the majors but went 2-12 in extra-inning games and underperformed their expected record by 10 wins. A big reason was the fact that they hit .199 in "late and close" situations -- the lowest average in the majors.
There was certainly a feeling that the players started pressing in these moments (or some might suggest a lack of chemistry and trust to pick each other up). Tatis hit .227 with one home run in 75 such at-bats. Manny Machado hit .153. Xander Bogaerts hit .244. Jake Cronenworth hit .157. Ha-Seong Kim hit .271 but was otherwise terrible with runners on base.
The Padres, in 2023, were as anti-clutch as you can get. If they normalize in that regard, they'll get some of those wins back. They still need outfielders -- they've lost wins with the departure of Soto, certainly -- and the depth is sorely lacking, but I'm not ready to write off the Padres just yet.
San Francisco Giants
The number: 19
Giants fans, I know you know this: It has now been 19 seasons since the Giants had a player hit 30 home runs -- Barry Bonds with 45 back in 2004. Yes, Oracle Park factors into this as it's one of the tougher home run parks with a three-year home run factor that puts it 27th among the 30 parks. And true, the Giants won World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014 without hitting a ton of home runs -- but that was a different era with fewer home runs overall. In fact, the 2010 club did rank sixth in the NL in home runs and the 2014 club ranked seventh. These days, wouldn't it be nice to have a slugger in the middle of the lineup? (Thus, the failed pursuit of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani the past two offseasons.)
After losing out on Ohtani, the Giants turned to Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, a left-handed batter who is not a power hitter. He does fill center field, however, and perhaps projects as a viable leadoff hitter who sprays the ball around and hits .300. Meanwhile, they'll hope for a rebound season from Mitch Haniger -- who once hit 39 home runs in Seattle -- but he's 33 and injury-prone. Michael Conforto had a 30-homer season, but that was now five years ago in the juiced-ball season of 2019 and he's 31. To make matters worse: The Giants were last in the NL in batting average (.235) in 2023. Lee looks like he'll help, but will there be enough internal improvement to get the Giants back into the playoff picture?
Washington Nationals
The number: 3.76
That's the average number of pitches per plate appearance for Nationals hitters -- the lowest figure in the majors. There are two main factors that affect that number. One, if you're making contact early in the count, your pitch count will remain low. That's not necessarily a bad thing; the Astros have a low figure because they have contact hitters who are aggressive at times on the first pitch. Two, you're being too aggressive and swinging at too many pitches out of the zone. Where did the Nationals fit in? They swung at the first pitch 31.2% of the time, right at the MLB average. Their chase rate on those pitches was also right in the middle. When they did connect, they were 17th in OPS, so their damage was also middle of the pack.
Yet only the Royals and White Sox drew fewer walks. It looks like the Nationals just weren't very good at working the count. Indeed, after the first pitch, they had the fourth-worst chase rate in the majors. Some of that might just be their lack of experience. The Nationals have to hope their young players -- CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, Keibert Ruiz -- will develop more consistent approaches throughout their at-bats. It's time for the young Nationals to grow up.