The deal: Yankees acquire OFs Juan Soto and Trent Grisham from the Padres for RHPs Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and C Kyle Higashioka.
MLB's winter meetings have mostly dragged along, held back by the weight of a Shohei Ohtani-induced limbo. There have been a smattering of moves here and there, but mostly these meetings have been defined by inaction. That made Wednesday's news that the Yankees had landed the biggest name on this winter's trade market all the more startling, adding a touch of vibrancy to the false sky of the self-contained biosphere known as the Gaylord Opryland Resort in Nashville, Tennessee.
The deal between New York and San Diego is a significant exchange of present and future value and alters the payroll outlook of both franchises. The Yankees and Padres entered last season as hyped title contenders and exited as major disappointments. Now, by changing the uniform that will be worn by superstar Soto, the teams have altered the landscape of the pennant races in both leagues.
Let's grade this thing.
Yankees: After nearing finishing below the .500 mark for the first time in three decades, the Yankees seem intent on leaping back into title contention by following the route that has so often defined Bronx baseball during the division era. In a nutshell, this approach is simple: the bigger the name and higher the salary, the more likely it is that he will don pinstripes.
There are some nuances to GM Brian Cashman's current roster approach that might characterize this cannonball splash of a move a little differently than New York's usual penchant for collecting stars. Still, there is an uncomfortable element of overvaluing the short term over the long term, a tradeoff that could keep the Yankees spinning on the same sort of merry-go-round on which they have so often become stuck.
The first point is obvious but essential to emphasize: Juan Soto is a great, great player, one of the finest hitters of his generation. He has already been a superstar for so long that it's easy to forget that he just turned 25 years old. It's very possible that Soto has not yet had the three or four best seasons he's going to have. If one of those occurs next season while donning the NY cap, the New York offense could return to its once-potent ways.
Even if Soto has only a representative season, keep in mind that in his worst season to date -- 2022 -- he still hit 27 homers, led the National League in walks (which he has done for three straight seasons) and posted a .401 on-base percentage. That performance earned him a Silver Slugger Award and, again, it's the worst season he's had. His best seasons mark him as a front-running MVP candidate, which puts him on the same level as Yankees cornerstone Aaron Judge, at least when Judge stays healthy enough to play a full season.
How good could that twosome be together? Well, just take a glance at the Fangraphs projections, where Soto and Judge rank second and third behind Ronald Acuna Jr. in projected fWAR and weighted runs created. And those are just median projections. If Soto and Judge both stay healthy and post typical seasons, it's a one-two punch that no other team can match.
But let's consider the elements beyond the sheer star power of Soto and the Soto/Judge pairing. The Yankees entered the offseason needing a major overhaul, not just in terms of baseline talent but in some key categories that would balance the traits of that talent so that it all works together.
In adding Soto and Alex Verdugo (via trade with the Red Sox) over the past couple of days, the Yankees have gotten more left-handed at the dish (as they badly needed to do), more athletic and a little younger than they were last season. Soto is an average-to-below-average defender, but he's a good athlete and can hold down a position when he's engaged. When he's not, he can be laughably inept in the field, so it's on the Yankees to keep him on point when not at the plate.
Verdugo is an above-average defender, not elite, but good enough to be a Gold Glove finalist last season. Judge of course is outstanding, whether he's in center or right field. If the Yankees want to limit Verdugo's exposure to lefties, the defense could be an issue -- at least until Jasson Dominguez is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery -- on days their opponents start a southpaw, but that's not a huge deal.
The Yankees now have a potent, balanced outfield mix with Judge, Soto and Verdugo as the regulars, complemented by waiver pickup Oscar Gonzalez, whose free-swinging profile might actually play up on the Yankees' roster, the occasional Giancarlo Stanton-with-a-glove sighting and other utility options like Oswaldo Cabrera. While Gonzalez is intriguing, he might end up as organizational depth in the wake of Grisham being part of the trade.
The inclusion of Grisham as part of the deal is a bit of a head-scratcher, mostly because of his redundancy with Verdugo. They have different strengths, but they are still both lefty-swinging outfielders in an outfield rotation that now has Soto as well. Reports suggest that Grisham will be used as a backup/defensive replacement, though, and he might occupy a very similar role to that of former Yankee Harrison Bader. They are close matches in terms of productivity even if the shapes of their production are very different.
Grisham's offensive game these days is all walks and the occasional homer, but he has been a sub-.200 hitter for two seasons running and his whiff rates are terrifying. He's also a lefty swinger with a fairly stark and consistent reverse platoon tendency, so it's hard to see how he complements what the Yankees have in hand. Perhaps New York had to take on his money and will seek to flip him.
There's one concern that should be mentioned: a defensive alignment that would feature Judge in center most days. While he handles the position in fine fashion, a larger worry might be that the additional strain that goes with playing center as opposed to a corner might raise the injury risk of a player whose injury risk is already high. One of the Yankees' primary objectives for next season is keeping Judge on the field as much as possible -- so maybe they see Grisham as a luxury who can help them spell Judge in center.
Nevertheless, the Yankees are making a lot of tradeoffs with this deal by acquiring a player one year away from free agency, who could be looking at $30 million-plus in his last season of arbitration eligibility. The long-term marginal values of this deal, an outlook in which you cannot assume New York will ink Soto to an extension, favor the Padres. And even in the short term, the Yankees' rotation depth is impacted and now they might have to splurge even further to fill that void.
If the Yankees keep spending, such as on coveted free agent hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto, we're talking about a $300-plus million payroll. Sure, it's the Yankees and no one is going to pass around the hat on their behalf. But such a figure would pass the "Steve Cohen" tax threshold ($297 million), which among other things impacts the value of the draft pick the Yankees would get back if they lose Soto in free agency.
In sending away high-quality, team-controlled arms such as King and Thorpe, the Yankees have made it that much more likely that they'll have to spend, spend, spend to keep a contention-worthy rotation intact, especially since so many of the high-paid starters already on board have had injury problems. They also are losing Brito and Vasquez, two swing righties who made 18 big league starts between them in 2023, as well as three pitchers selected during Wednesday's Rule 5 draft, including Mitch Spence, a member of their 2023 Triple-A rotation.
The upside of a Soto-Judge pairing keeps this grade above the C-range, but the downside of this move comes in many shapes and forms, stirring anxieties over cautionary tales of the 2023 New York Mets and a number of former Yankees rosters that could not live up to their price tag and collective name recognition. But, at least for next season, it might just work.
Grade: B
Padres: On the flip side, the Padres came out well in executing a move they almost had to make. Everyone knew it, too, which limited their leverage. Given their long-term payroll commitments, which already have stretched the limits of their market, there was little chance they were going to be competitive in the eventual Soto free agency sweepstakes, or in reaching an extension with him before it got that far.
San Diego isn't looking to rebuild, so with only one season of value before his free agency, it was going to take deft work on the part of GM A.J. Preller to not only achieve the payroll savings that come with trading Soto but do so in a way that addresses needs in both the near term and beyond. This trade comes pretty close to threading that tiny needle. The return doesn't bring back any likely stars, but it's a quality haul that deepens the organization while adding the flexibility that comes from payroll breathing space.
King is a versatile righty who has filled a variety of roles for the Yankees. Over the past three seasons, he's posted a 2.88 ERA and 3.13 FIP while striking out 10.5 per nine innings. New York used him as a starter in nine games last season, during which he posted a 2.23 ERA with 11.4 K/9. Once he was stretched out, King pitched into the middle innings effectively. The Padres will almost certainly drop him into the middle of their rotation behind Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. King has one more season of arbitration eligibility left after this one and arbitration guru Matt Schwartz projects him at a reasonable $2.6 million price point for 2024.
Thorpe, a second-round pick in 2021, posted startling numbers last season. First, he went 10-2 with a 2.81 ERA, 11.4 K/9 and 4.18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the High-A Sally League. Then he really took off after being promoted to Double-A, allowing just five runs over five starts for a 1.48 ERA with a 13.1 K/9 and 8.8 K:BB ratio. That's how you like to see a player perform after promotion.
According to ESPN's Kiley McDaniel, Thorpe works in the 90 to 94 mph range with his fastball but leans on his advanced command and complementary pitches. The fastball is fringe average, but the command and his standout changeup are plus, if not plus-plus. McDaniel sums up Thorpe as at least a backend starter, and if his traits translate to the majors, he could end up as a midrotation performer. He was rated as a 40+ FV prospect before the season but has ticked up from that with his 2023 showing.
Meanwhile, Brito and Vasquez both rated as 40 FV prospects before the season and then posted above-average ERA+ results in 127-plus innings between them. They are versatile righties who can help the bullpen in multi-inning roles in addition to deepening the rotation.
As for Higashioka, he's a terrific defensive catcher, a veteran who ups the production of the staff with his framing ability even if he doesn't play full time. Last season, San Diego finished 21st in Fangraphs' framing metric.
All of this adds up to a much-needed booster shot to the Padres' organizational depth, stabilizing the rotation and short-term salary structure while even boosting the defense behind the plate. In offloading Soto, they should be able to stay under the tax line and do so with enough of a buffer to fill out the depth of their overall roster even more thoroughly over the rest of the winter. San Diego might have less star power than it did yesterday, but it also might be able to build a big league roster that will make more sense than last season's star-heavy disappointment.