EDITOR'S NOTE: This story was originally posted Dec. 6 and has been updated based on the Yankees acquiring Juan Soto in a trade with the Padres.
A season that began with hopes of a Subway World Series -- with Mike Piazza throwing out a first pitch at Citi Field and Roger Clemens throwing out a first bat at Yankee Stadium -- ended up as the most miserable baseball season in the Big Apple since the early 1990s.
The New York Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and finished with their worst winning percentage since 1992. The New York Mets, with the highest payroll in history, floundered to an 87-loss season and traded away Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
"It was awful. We accomplished nothing," Yankees managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner said at the team's end-of-season news conference. "It felt like a losing season," said general manager Brian Cashman, as the team barely kept alive its 30-year-streak of winning seasons with an 82-80 record. The Mets, meanwhile, fired manager Buck Showalter, hired former Brewers executive David Stearns to run baseball operations and owner Steve Cohen wrote an apology letter to season-ticket holders.
Both organizations are under pressure to do something big this offseason -- as in multiple noteworthy transactions. This is New York, where you're expected to win today and be better tomorrow. The first major move finally dropped, with the Yankees acquiring Juan Soto (and Trent Grisham) from the San Diego Padres in a blockbuster move that they needed to make. They also traded for Alex Verdugo. Let's dig into those moves and see what else the Yankees and Mets have to do.
Yankees: World Series or bust
OK, three issues on the state of the Yankees:
1. They needed offense, especially left-handed hitters
Of all the puzzling moves by the Yankees in recent years, the reliance on right-handed hitters has been a constant -- and understandable -- protest Yankees fans rain on GM Brian Cashman. The Yankees hit with the platoon advantage just 41.6% of the time in 2023, the second-lowest percentage in the majors. You can win that way -- the Houston Astros had the lowest percentage, but at least they had Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker from the left side -- but it didn't work for the Yankees as they finished 11th in the American League and 25th in the majors in runs. The Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals all scored more runs than the Yankees.
The too-many-right-handed hitters issue has particularly manifested itself in the playoffs. In 44 playoff games since 2017, the Yankees have hit .218/.295/.404 in right-on-right matchups. In 2022, when they lost to the Astros in four games in the ALCS, they hit just .175 in right-on-right matchups.
So they've added Soto, Grisham and Verdugo to give them the lefty-hitting outfielders they needed. Grisham has hit .184 and .198 the past two seasons -- although his .315 OBP was still higher than the Yankees got collectively from their outfielders -- but more importantly, he's an elite defender and two-time Gold Glove winner. If the Yankees wanted, they could play him in center, Judge in right and Verdugo in left for an elite defensive outfield -- with Soto DHing. Yes, I know, Giancarlo Stanton is still around, but it all adds up to five guys for four positions, which is fine, especially given the injury histories for Judge and Stanton.
Solution: Accomplished. Importantly, acquiring Grisham to play center field instead of signing free agent Cody Bellinger perhaps leaves room in the payroll to make another big move on the pitching front.
2. Get the rotation healthy ... and add a premium starter
To defend Cashman, the Yankees entered 2023 with a top four of Gerrit Cole, Rodon, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino, which looked as good as any quartet in the league. That group had combined for 639 innings and a 3.01 ERA in 2022. In 2023, despite Cole's Cy Young season, that foursome combined for 426 innings and a 4.46 ERA. Take out Cole and the other three went 12-18 with a 6.22 ERA in just 44 starts. Severino is gone -- he signed a one-year deal with the Mets -- but the Yankees need more certainty with Cole and Clark Schmidt the only returning starters who made 20 starts. Cortes has had just the one premium season while Rodon has also had just one season with 150 innings and an ERA under 3.00.
Solution: Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The best pitcher in Japan, Yamamoto will likely command what might now be something closer to $300 million than $200 million, but the 25-year-old right-hander looks like a potential No. 1 starter. It's pretty clear the Yankees want this guy. When Cashman talks about Yamamoto, you can see the heart emojis floating out of his mouth. The Yankees, like most teams, have scouted Yamamoto for years. Cashman went to Japan in September and saw him pitch a no-hitter. Now they just have to pony up the money. If Rodon and Cortes can bounce back to something close to their 2022 level, that's a scary rotation, with Clarke Schmidt as the fifth starter.
In the big picture, trading for Soto and signing Yamamoto gets the Yankees back to their roots: When they need a talent infusion, they bring in the stars. This goes all the way back to signing Reggie Jackson in the first free agent class after they lost the World Series in 1976. They went on to win the next two. From Dave Winfield to Rickey Henderson to Mike Mussina to Jason Giambi to Alex Rodriguez to CC Sabathia to Mark Teixeira to Giancarlo Stanton to Cole, the Yankees acquire franchise-type players.
Even when the Yankees developed the homegrown core of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada in the mid-1990s, they still added big names around them. They traded for David Cone and re-signed him (twice) as a free agent. They signed Wade Boggs. They traded for Tino Martinez. They signed David Wells and later included him in a trade for Roger Clemens. And so on. Trading for Soto is nice. Signing Yamamoto returns the Yankees to their Death Star history.
3. Cashman needs to break out of his slump
Here's another reason to do the Soto-Yamamoto daily double: Other than Cole, going back to the Stanton trade, Cashman's big moves haven't worked out. Stanton has been injury prone and expensive and worth minus-0.1 WAR over the past two seasons. The second DJ LeMahieu deal hasn't been a disaster, but he hasn't been a $90 million player either. The Josh Donaldson trade didn't work out, dealing Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader certainly didn't work out, and Rodon was obviously a mess in the first year of his six-year, $162 million contract.
So, in the most important Yankees' offseason since 2013-14, Cashman has to deliver and hope his luck -- if you want to call it that -- turns. Banking on one of the best hitters in the game and one of the best pitchers on the planet is a good way to turn your luck around.
Now ... will Steinbrenner support the payroll required to add Soto's estimated $33 million salary plus Yamamoto's projected $30-million-a-year salary?
Back in March he told reporters, "So I will say that you shouldn't have to have a $300 million payroll to win a world championship, because nobody has, including Houston." He reaffirmed that statement at the end of the season, citing the Texas Rangers as another example of a team that won without a $300 million payroll.
According to FanGraphs, the Yankees' current estimated payroll before acquiring Soto and Verdugo was $237 million (their luxury tax payroll was about $248 million). Add $33 million for Soto, about $9 million for Verdugo and $5 million for Grisham and you're up to $284 million -- which means signing Yamamoto pushes the payroll over Steinbrenner's theoretical threshold. They could possibly trade Gleyber Torres, projected to make $15 million, but that just weakens an offense you just improved with Soto and Verdugo.
We should note that the Yankees' historical pattern under Cashman is not to spend huge in consecutive years. Going back to the 2008-09 offseason, when the Yankees signed Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett and won the World Series that year, look at their total dollars committed in free agency in each year:
2009: $441 million
2010: $19.8M (Andy Pettitte)
2011: $130M (Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano)
2012: $16M (Hiroki Kuroda)
2013: $62M (Rivera, Pettitte, Kuroda, Ichiro Suzuki)
2014: $471M (Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran)
2015: $100.5M (Chase Headley, Andrew Miller)
2016: $0
2017: $102M (Aroldis Chapman)
2018: $14M (Sabathia)
2019: $140M (Zack Britton, JA Happ, DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino)
2020: $336.5M (Gerrit Cole)
2021: $101M (LeMahieu, Kluber)
2022: $38M (Anthony Rizzo)
2023: $573.5M (Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon, Rizzo)
Does that lead you to think the Yankees will sign Yamamoto and sign Soto to a monster extension? Seems like Cashman and ownership would be moving in a direction they might not be comfortable with. Then again: They need that bat in the lineup ... in 2024 and beyond.
Mets: Striving to avoid mediocrity
After matching the Atlanta Braves with 101 wins in 2022, the Mets went all-in in 2023. And saying "all-in" is an understatement. While they let Jacob deGrom walk as a free agent, they signed Verlander to replace him, re-signed Brandon Nimmo to the largest free agent contract in franchise history at $162 million, re-signed closer Edwin Diaz for $102 million, and added free agents Senga, Quintana, Adam Ottavino, Omar Narvaez, David Robertson, Tommy Pham and Tommy Hunter. They also gave Jeff McNeil a $50 million extension. Total commitments: more than $550 million.
Let's just say they hit the iceberg.
Here's the problem with the Mets: That 2022 season stands out as a fluke, surrounded by losing seasons in 2020, 2021 and 2023. In hiring Carlos Mendoza from the Yankees, they're on their fourth manager in seven seasons and Stearns is their sixth head of baseball operations/GM since 2018. There has been no plan here, no consistent vision, no strategy in the past couple of years other than to spend owner Steve Cohen's money.
The Mets can't really hit a reset button -- rebuilding is for small markets, plus they're stuck with too many high-paid players, with a payroll already at an estimated $276 million (including about $57 million in payments to the Rangers and Astros for Scherzer and Verlander). They've already made a couple of small moves, signing Severino to a one-year, $13 million deal and Joey Wendle to a one-year, $2 million deal. Those are indications of Stearns straddling that line of trying to build a playoff team without creating more tenuous long-term payroll issues.
A few more moves for the Mets:
1. Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yamamoto is the best fit for the Mets given his expected performance and his age. He's less risky than the inconsistent Blake Snell and younger and better than the next tier of starters like Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez. He was superior to Senga in Japan and Senga had an outstanding rookie season with the Mets, going 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts. Maybe Senga's success -- and Cohen's wallet -- can lure Yamamoto to Queens.
One reason Senga did well is the Mets handled him very carefully, as he started just three times on four days of rest. Pitchers in Japan generally start once a week, so the extra rest makes sense -- but it also means the Mets need to plan on a six-man rotation at times. A rotation with Yamamoto, Senga, Quintana, Severino, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi could work if Quintana and Severino bounce back, but it feels like the Mets need more of a sure thing from at least one more starter.
2. Sign Shota Imanaga
The 30-year-old left-hander has been one of the top pitchers in Japan and had a higher strikeout rate than Yamamoto in 2023, with 188 in 159 innings (and just 24 walks). He did allow 17 home runs -- more than Yamamoto has allowed over the past three seasons -- but he has great command of his offspeed stuff, and while he sits in the lower 90s, he can crank it up from time to time. He did have shoulder surgery in 2020 but has been healthy the past three seasons and posted sub-3.00 ERAs in 2022 and '23.
Scouts regard him somewhere between Yamamoto and Senga and he could get $17 million to $20 million per season for a four- or five-year contract. I'd rather go with Imanaga and his potential as a No. 2 or 3 starter than a third-tier starter like Mike Clevinger or Sean Manaea on a shorter deal. The key for the Mets is that Imanaga is still young enough to be viable well into the future without carrying the age risks and $43 million salaries that Scherzer and Verlander did.
3. Keep Pete Alonso
It's hard to envision the Mets making the playoffs without Alonso's power in the middle of the order -- plus teams really aren't going to give up a super lucrative prospect package for one year of a first baseman, even if he did hit 46 home runs. In the meantime, Stearns indicated the Mets will have talks with Alonso about an extension. An agreement might be difficult given Alonso hired Scott Boras in October, but let's use the Matt Olson extension as a guide. He signed an eight-year, $168 million deal with the Braves in 2022, with the final six seasons buying out his free agent years -- starting with his age-30 season in 2024. Alonso will also be entering his age-30 season when he's eligible for free agency in 2025. Olson's final six years pay him $22 million annually or $132 million. Olson probably took a little bit of a discount, so Alonso probably starts at six years and $150 million, which means it will take more to keep him from testing free agency. Is he worth eight years and $200 million? That's risky given the lack of big seasons from first basemen in their 30s in recent years outside of Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt. I think it's fine to just let this play out and see where things stand next offseason.
4. Find some bullpen help
Getting Diaz back from his knee injury will help, as the Mets finished 23rd in the majors in bullpen ERA at 4.45, with depth in middle relief a particular issue. Finding relievers was a Stearns specialty when he was with the Brewers. How about Robert Stephenson on a three-year, $30 million projected contract to set up Diaz? If we're adding two free agent starters on top of Severino, I like the idea of Megill as a potential late-innings guy as well. He allowed a .719 OPS the first time through the order in 2023 -- and 1.073 the third time. His fastball/slider combo should play better in short stints.
5. Sign Kevin Kiermaier
Stearns said Monday the team is looking to add an outfielder. I know they gave Nimmo $162 million to play center field and he's fine out there, but an outfield with Kiermaier in center and Nimmo in left would be outstanding defensively -- it's been a long time since outfield defense was a strength for the Mets. Plus, Kiermaier is more of a platoon bat anyway, so Nimmo would still see plenty of action in center. Kiermaier was on a one-year deal with Toronto last season and the Mets could probably get him a similar deal, say $12 million.
6. Play the kids
The Mets could add a veteran bat -- Jorge Soler to DH or trade for Randy Arozarena to play left field -- but they also don't want to block any of the youngsters and making a trade for Arozarena would deplete a farm system that is finally starting to show a little depth. At some point, the Mets need to get younger and get more payroll flexibility.
Brett Baty and Mark Vientos certainly didn't impress in their rookie seasons but we need more evidence than a few hundred plate appearances -- Stearns agrees, saying the team isn't looking for a third baseman. The Steamer projection system forecasts Baty to hit .248/.320/.419 and Vientos to hit .245/.311/.451, which would be acceptable production. Ronny Mauricio can play some outfield and some second base (McNeil will be the regular), but let's see what he can do. In the second half, Luisangel Acuna and Drew Gilbert, the pickups in the Scherzer and Verlander trades, could be ready for an opportunity. Not all of these youngsters will meet expectations, but they need to find out which ones will.
So, let's see ... we've added about $60 million to $62 million in payroll for Yamamoto, Imanaga and Kiermaier, plus another $15 million for a couple of decent relievers. That's another $350 million payroll, but the Mets haven't really left themselves with any other options. They'll need better seasons from McNeil and Starling Marte -- which is no sure thing -- and they'll need Baty and Vientos to hit. They're unlikely to challenge the Braves no matter what they do this offseason, but as we saw in 2023, the National League wild-card picture should once again be wide open.
Of course, there is another problem with this scenario: The Yankees and Mets can't both sign Yamamoto -- not to mention the Cubs, Boston Red Sox and others who are in on him. Which is why every front office needs a Plan B and a Plan C -- and a backup plan to those.