There are only two weeks left in the 2023 MLB season, and that means it's time to expect the unexpected in a chaotic race to the finish.
For instance, the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins met for a three-game series of contenders and, not surprisingly, one of the teams blistered the ball all weekend long, scoring nine, 11 and 16 runs to sweep the series. Except it was the Marlins who did this -- the same team that had scored just five runs in its previous four games and still ranks next to last in the National League in runs scored even after hitting .387 and belting 10 home runs in the three games.
The Braves may have been suffering from a division-clinching hangover, so call it fortuitous timing for the Marlins. The sweep moved the Marlins into a tie with the Chicago Cubs for the third and final wild-card spot.
Speaking of the Cubs ... wait, let's just check in on this whole NL wild-card picture.
We're going to put the Philadelphia Phillies in the postseason (along with three division winners: the Braves, Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers). Philly seems fairly entrenched in the top spot -- not because it's ripping the cover off the ball or anything, as it's just 4-6 in the past 10 games, but because none of the teams below the Phillies have made a run to chase them down.
That leaves five teams battling for two spots. Let's take a look at where each club stands.
Arizona Diamondbacks (79-72)
Remaining schedule: vs. Giants (2 games), at Yankees (3), at White Sox (3), vs. Astros (3)
Season series tiebreakers: 6-1 vs. Cubs, 2-4 vs. Marlins, 3-4 vs. Reds, 5-6 vs. Giants (two games left)
The Diamondbacks pulled off their own impressive sweep over the weekend, beating the Cubs all three games, including an exciting 13-inning game Saturday in which both clubs scored in the 10th and 11th innings, the Cubs scored once in the top of the 13th and then Arizona scored twice to walk it off. The tying run reached home when Emmanuel Rivera lined a ball off the back of Cubs pitcher Hayden Wesneski, with the ball dropping in front of shortstop Dansby Swanson for an infield single. Gabriel Moreno then singled in Evan Longoria, who lumbered home from second base (an on-target throw from Seiya Suzuki would have gotten him). This series came a week after Arizona had taken three of four at Wrigley as the Diamondbacks have gone 8-4 over their past 12 games.
Unfortunately, the five NL wild-card contenders have just one head-to-head matchup remaining, the two-game set between the Diamondbacks and Giants at Chase Field tonight and Wednesday. The Diamondbacks can just about knock out the Giants if they take both games (and it would give Arizona the season series edge in a tiebreaker scenario) and they have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, their two best starters, lined up to pitch. That also means Gallen and Kelly are lined up to start six of Arizona's final 11 games, which is big considering the shaky stature of the rest of the rotation. Gallen, however, has had three bad starts out of his past four, sandwiched around a three-hit shutout of the Cubs.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been the hottest hitter in September while Tommy Pham has proven to be a key addition at the trade deadline. Likely Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll is still slugging .501 on the season but has just three home runs in his past 181 at-bats. Maybe the key is to bring in good luck charm Kevin Ginkel whenever the game is on the line. He's 9-0 out of the bullpen.
Chicago Cubs (78-72)
Remaining schedule: vs. Pirates (3), vs. Rockies (3), at Braves (3), at Brewers (3)
Season series tiebreakers: 1-6 vs. Diamondbacks, 2-4 vs. Marlins, 6-7 vs. Reds, 5-1 vs. Giants
One of these numbers is not like the others:
Diamondbacks: minus-26
Cubs: plus-86
Marlins: minus-37
Reds: minus-42
Giants: minus-14
Via run differential, the Cubs should not only be running away with this wild-card race but they should also be neck-and-neck with the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. It's not that they've been particularly bad in one-run games -- they're 20-21 -- but they've had 30 wins by five or more runs. That's only one less than the Braves, for example. So when the Cubs are clicking, they're really clicking. Trouble is, they're 2-8 in their past 10 games.
They did get Marcus Stroman back over the weekend, but he's going to pitch out of the bullpen. Looking for lightning in a bottle, they called up Pete Crow-Armstrong, but the highly touted prospect went 0-for-8. The offense has become too reliant on Cody Bellinger, Christopher Morel and Suzuki for power as Nick Madrigal, Nico Hoerner, Yan Gomes and Mike Tauchman are all homerless in September in a combined 207 at-bats (and Swanson has one home run in 68 at-bats).
Given the season-ending road trip to Atlanta and Milwaukee, the Cubs need to right the ship against the Pirates and Rockies at home -- especially factoring in that they lose three of the four tiebreakers. It will be interesting to see how managers line up their rotations here since all five teams will have at least two off days coming off the weekend (the Cubs were off Monday and are off against next Monday). Will they skip a fifth starter? Cy Young contender Justin Steele, for example, started Friday, so if he started on four days of rest he could go Wednesday-Tuesday-Sunday, squeezing in a third start on the final day of the season. The Tuesday start would be on five days of rest since they don't play Monday. Steele has made 14 starts on four days of rest with a 2.91 ERA, so while his last outing was his first poor one in a while, it makes sense for manager David Ross to ensure Steele is lined up for three starts.
Cincinnati Reds (79-73)
Remaining schedule: vs. Twins (2), vs. Pirates (3), at Guardians (2), at Cardinals (3)
Season-series tiebreakers: 4-3 vs. Diamondbacks, 7-6 vs. Cubs, 3-3 vs. Marlins, 3-4 vs. Giants
I keep expecting the Reds to collapse or at least slowly fall off the pace, but they keep hanging in there and have won three of their past four series (against the Mariners, Tigers and Mets). They've had to use eight different starting pitchers in their 17 games in September, with rookies starting in 11 of those and openers in two. Now, this hasn't really worked - the rotation has a 6.11 ERA this month, third-worst in the majors - and yet here they are. Let me dig into some numbers and ... why, yes, the bullpen has nine of their 10 wins in September. The starters hadn't won a game until Monday night, when Connor Phillips earned his first major league with seven superb innings against the Twins.
How? Let me dig into some numbers ... why, yes, the bullpen has all nine wins in September. Pretty incredible. With an off day Thursday and then two next week, David Bell will continue to ride his bullpen. Even though Cincinnati finishes on the road, it gets to play two teams in Cleveland and St. Louis who will be playing out the string.
Look, the Reds are the one team nobody expected to be here. They're very early in the rebuilding process and sometimes a young team like this can play loose without the burden of expectations. They have some young hitters who are playing well right now -- Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer, in particular. Frankly, I hate to say this, but the Reds may want to consider sitting Elly De La Cruz, who has a .501 OPS in September. I guess it's valuable experience for him, but he's not helping right now.
Miami Marlins (78-73)
Remaining schedule: vs. Mets (2), vs. Brewers (3), at Mets (3), at Pirates (3)
Season-series tiebreakers: 4-2 vs. Diamondbacks, 4-2 vs. Cubs, 3-3 vs. Reds, 3-3 vs. Giants
That schedule isn't quite as easy as it looks as the Mets and Pirates have both played well in September. The Marlins feel like the most unpredictable team out of the five: Blowing out the Braves was impressive, but I'm not sure momentum is a word that exists for the Marlins. They could just as easily get shut out three times this week. Still, they've turned it around this month after going 19-32 in July and August -- and they've done it the past two-plus weeks without Sandy Alcantara. The key pitcher has been reliever Tanner Scott, who hadn't allowed an earned run since July until he served up the game-losing home run on Monday. David Robertson continues to get high-leverage innings even though he's allowed 33 baserunners in 16.1 innings since coming over to the Marlins. Starter Jesus Luzardo is also back on track with four excellent outings out of his past five starts, including three scoreless starts.
It's easy to point to the offense and say that will be the key, but the rotation could use a few quality starts from somebody besides Luzardo or Braxton Garrett. Johnny Cueto hasn't been effective, and they've filled Alcantara's slot with openers and then Bryan Hoenig over the weekend. That doesn't feel like the path to a wild card -- but it's not like the other teams are without their flaws.
Does institutional history factor in here? After all, the Marlins haven't had a winning record in a full season since 2009 or made the playoffs in a full season since 2003. As fans, this probably weighs more on us than the players, especially since some of these Marlins were around in 2020, when the club made the expanded COVID-season postseason.
San Francisco Giants (76-74)
Remaining schedule: at Diamondbacks (2), at Dodgers (4), vs. Padres (3), vs. Dodgers (3)
Season-series tiebreakers: 6-5 vs. Diamondbacks (two games left), 1-5 vs. Cubs, 3-3 vs. Marlins, 4-3 vs. Reds
It feels like the Giants have to win both Arizona games. If they fall to 76-76, I don't see a path to the playoffs -- especially given those final 10 games against the Dodgers and Padres. The Giants are 6-10 in September after going 12-15 in August and 12-13 in July. The second half slow fade and possibility of missing the playoffs led to some speculation that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler were in jeopardy of losing their jobs, but chairman Greg Johnson told the San Francisco Chronicle that both will return in 2024.
The Giants' two biggest moves in the offseason -- once their Carlos Correa megadeal fell apart -- were signing outfielders Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger. The two have combined for 0.7 WAR. Haniger has played just 56 games and hit .163 since returning in August. Conforto just returned after missing nearly a month. Those two will have to step up if the Giants make a late run here.
Who will get in?
So, you want some predictions?
Against our better judgment, we'll give you some predictions. First, we can throw the playoff odds out the door. Any of these teams can get just hot enough -- and given those run differentials any of them can certainly get cold enough. Here's how I'll rank them:
1. Phillies. The Phillies really should have pulled away from this group by now, but they've left it close enough that two bad weeks could leave them out of the postseason. Monday's win over the Braves is a good sign that won't happen.
2. Diamondbacks. As mentioned, I like that Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly will start more than half of their remaining games. They're playing well and the bullpen, after inconsistent results all season, has stepped up in September.
3. Cubs. I'll be stubborn and stick to the run differential numbers that suggest the Cubs are the best of the non-Phillies contenders. The Brewers will probably have locked up the division title by that final series, which means the Cubs are likely to miss Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, or at least two of three. They could go 6-0 against the Pirates and Rockies this week.
4. Marlins. Momentum? The Marlins came off that rollicking sweep of the Braves and promptly lost a 2-1 stinker when Jeff McNeil homered off Tanner Scott in the ninth - just the third home run Scott had allowed all season (and lefties had been hitting .163 off him). Get out those fingernail files, wild-card fans.
5. Reds. Monday's 7-3 win over the Twins was a good sign and it was great to see Joey Votto single twice and drive in two runs. It would be fun to see them get in given their 100 losses last season, but I still can't get behind the pitching.
6. Giants. Too much has to go right for them to get in - they have to get hot and hope at least three of the teams ahead of them fade and they just haven't been that good for over two months now.