The stretch run is here, and the MLB playoff field is slowly narrowing (good night, Red Sox). The National League wild-card race remains a free for all for the final spot, and the American League West and wild-card races are suddenly dealing with dueling slumps from the Rangers and Mariners -- but at least one of them will make it in.
So, which teams are the real World Series contenders?
This is admittedly a snapshot in time, and sometimes we can overrate how well a team is playing in the moment and miss the big picture. For the most part, however, teams that reach the World Series do play well the final month -- although, not always. Since 2016, three of the 16 World Series participants had a losing record the final month (the 2022 Phillies were 14-17, the 2017 Dodgers were 13-17 and the 2015 Royals were 15-17). The other 13 teams were an average of eight games over .500 the final month.
All in all, playing well right now is an important consideration. Let's take a look at every postseason contender and rate them on their World Series potential.
Tier 1: The favorites
Atlanta Braves
Why they can win the World Series: You know why. Power and more power and a little more power after that. The Braves already have four players with at least 33 home runs, including Matt Olson with 48, and Ozzie Albies is one away from making it five. Two others also have at least 20, and that doesn't even include Michael Harris II, who is hitting .291 (and .325 over his past 90 games after a very slow start). The rotation features the most dynamic starter of 2023 in Spencer Strider plus Max Fried, who is 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his 12 starts. Charlie Morton is still striking out 10 batters per nine innings, and Bryce Elder was an All-Star. The bullpen is fifth in the majors in win probability. It's a team without any weaknesses. Oh, we just wrote all that and didn't even mention Ronald Acuna Jr.
Why they won't: October. Stuff happens.
Verdict: The Braves are everyone's team to beat.
Baltimore Orioles
Why they can win the World Series: The Orioles are on their way to 100 wins. Why are you still doubting them? The Orioles are impressive in kind of a subtle way, in part because they don't have the guys with the big numbers: Nobody has 30 home runs, nobody is hitting .300, only part-timer Ryan O'Hearn is slugging .500, the rotation is a little thin, the bullpen is now without Felix Bautista. They just win baseball games, which is obvious, but it's the all-around excellence in how they do it that I've learned to appreciate.
They hit enough home runs (especially when adjusting for the home park), but they don't rely just on the home run. They give good at-bats with runners in scoring position. They don't steal a lot of bases, other than backup shortstop Jorge Mateo, but they run the bases extremely well. They're average or better defensively at every position. They don't blow leads. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are stars -- and don't sleep on Kyle Bradish as their underrated No. 1 starter.
Why they won't: Losing Bautista was a big blow, although everyone got excited when he played catch Friday. But manager Brandon Hyde said he "wouldn't put any stock into it." As for the rotation, yes, it doesn't scream "dominance," but Bradish has now gone 16 starts in a row without allowing more than three runs (2.52 ERA and .586 OPS allowed over that span). Rookie Grayson Rodriguez has put it together since returning from the minors -- he has a 2.40 ERA over his past eight starts heading into his Sunday outing against the Red Sox. After that? Yes, some questions, especially because trade acquisition Jack Flaherty hasn't been an answer. But I think the biggest question here is whether they can win it all without Bautista.
Verdict: Real. Absolutely. The Orioles have been the most consistent team in the AL all season. Maybe they lack that Yordan Alvarez-type slugger to anchor the middle of the lineup, but consider: The Braves have averaged around 5.75 runs per game on the road; the Orioles aren't far behind hovering around 5.50. This is a deep, well-rounded team.
Houston Astros
Why they can win the World Series: Yeah, it kind of seems like the Astros were sleepwalking a bit through the first few months, but now that the pennant drive is in full force, they've moved into first place and are the healthiest they've been all season -- not to mention that Justin Verlander gave them a much-needed addition to the rotation. As they showed in their recent three-game demolition of the Rangers, with Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, the meat of their order remains difficult to navigate.
Why they won't: The rotation is hardly a sure thing, as even Framber Valdez had a rough stretch there -- and don't forget that right before that Texas series, the Yankees swept Houston. The biggest issue might be manager Dusty Baker and his penchant for relying too much on his favorite veterans.
Michael Brantley's return suddenly pushes Chas McCormick's playing time into jeopardy (even though he has been terrific at the plate), as Baker also increasingly prefers Mauricio Dubon's defense in center field. Granted, Brantley's first week has been outstanding. Will Baker play Martin Maldonado over Yainer Diaz at catcher, even though Diaz is the far better hitter, has the better arm (much higher caught stealing percentage) and even has better framing metrics? Will Baker be slow to remove Verlander from games, as was the case a couple times last October?
Verdict: Real. Those are small nitpicks, of course. The Astros know how to show up in October, having reached six consecutive ALCS (and four World Series). Bet against them at your own peril. But also bet on them at your own peril: No team has repeated since the 2000 Yankees.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why they can win the World Series: Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the dynamic duo. The offense doesn't stop there, though, with the likes of Will Smith, Max Muncy, J.D. Martinez and even solid contributors like Chris Taylor, Jason Heyward and James Outman. Only the Braves have scored more runs.
Why they won't: The rotation is, umm, a bit of a mess. Julio Urias is on administrative leave after his arrest on felony domestic violence charges. The Dodgers haven't been able to fix Lance Lynn. Walker Buehler will not return this season. The rotation now includes rookies Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan alongside Clayton Kershaw and Lynn.
Verdict: Real. Here's the thing: Don't overlook the Dodgers (not that anyone is overlooking the Dodgers). Kershaw is still great (2.61 ERA), Miller is reliable and potentially dominant at times with his 99 mph fastball, and Pepiot had made two starts and not allowed a run. And did we mention Betts and Freeman?
Tampa Bay Rays
Why they can win the World Series: The Rays excel at hitting home runs and striking out opposing batters -- although that strikeout rate for the starters is a little misleading with Shane McClanahan out for the season. Still, a playoff rotation with Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale is solid enough. If Zack Littell is the fourth starter, that's a group that won't beat themselves: Glasnow actually has the worst strikeout-to-walk ratio of the group at 4.79, and he's the best overall starter of the group.
Why they won't: Can they really overcome all those injuries to the rotation (McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen) plus the loss of Wander Franco, their best player? That's asking a lot. They've also received good production from hitters Josh Lowe, Luke Raley and Jose Siri, who have poor strikeout-to-walk ratios, and they're scrambling to fill shortstop (Taylor Walls has started the past few games, but he hasn't hit since a hot April).
Verdict: Real. They have the best run differential in the AL. Yes, they built that up with a monster April when they were plus-99 runs, but they're still nearly plus-100 since then. They can beat teams in a lot of ways -- power, speed, defense, starting pitching, bullpen -- and they're playoff tested, heading to their fifth straight postseason.
Tier 2: Have a chance to win it all
Chicago Cubs
Why they can win the World Series: The Cubs are sneaky good, as evidenced by that plus-98 run differential -- better than the Brewers, Phillies or Blue Jays. They're third in the majors in runs since the All-Star break as Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ lead the way -- with Bellinger among the best hitters in the majors in the second half. They have the possible NL Cy Young winner in Justin Steele. They're superb defensively up the middle with Bellinger in center and the possible Gold Glove combo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner in the infield. Adbert Alzolay has solidified the ninth inning, going 22-for-25 in save chances.
Why they won't: The rest of the starting rotation is iffy, especially with Marcus Stroman out because of a rib cage cartilage fracture -- although reports over the weekend indicated he could potentially return later this week in a relief role. We'll see about that, but maybe he can be ready to start in October. As good as Bellinger has been this season, he has struggled in the postseason in his career (.211/.285/.376 in 69 games). It's the Cubs. Two World Series titles in seven years? Unthinkable.
Verdict: Real. Iit would be a tough road. If the Cubs are the fifth seed, they would have to beat the Phillies in the wild-card series. Then the Braves. Then the Dodgers or Brewers. Then the AL champion. But keep an eye on rookie lefty Jordan Wicks, who has won his first three major league starts in impressive fashion. And Kyle Hendricks has been solid enough. Maybe the rotation is sneaky good as well.
Texas Rangers
Why they can win the World Series: Yes, the Rangers have played themselves out of a wild-card position with their recent slump, but this is still a talented team that has proven it can bash with the best of them when it's on a roll. Corey Seager, who now has enough plate appearances to qualify for the leaderboards and is second to Shohei Ohtani in OPS, leads the way and has been a clutch playoff performer in the past. The Rangers will also get Josh Jung back before the end of the season. And I'll take my chances with Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery and Jon Gray. Put it this way: The Rangers are feeling the pressure of a potential collapse, no doubt, but that all goes away if they just get in.
Why they won't: Bottom line: They peaked in April and May. They're under .500 since June, and that sweep by the Astros last week -- Houston destroyed them 39 to 10 over three games -- showed they're hardly ready for prime time. They even had their rotation lined up with Eovaldi (just off the injured list), Scherzer and Montgomery and they still allowed 16 runs in 10 innings. The bullpen has struggled of late as well. Just bad vibes all around from a team that was so good most of the season.
Verdict: Real. Again, they have to get in, and that's no guarantee, although Texas has seven games left against the Mariners and could easily chase Seattle down. Manager Bruce Bochy has obviously had success in October, if you want to put any weight into that. While Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith haven't been great the past few weeks, Chapman has 41 K's in 22⅔ innings with the Rangers, and remember that Smith had an immaculate run as the Atlanta closer in the 2021 postseason (no runs in 11 innings). It's all about getting hot at the right time, and this team has that capability.
Seattle Mariners
Why they can win the World Series: The Mariners won a franchise-record 21 games in August, temporarily moving into sole possession of first place in the AL West after sitting 10 games back in July, and they look like series contenders behind a strong rotation trio of Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. The offense has been much better in the second half, with Julio Rodriguez finally breaking out and turning into a top-five MVP candidate. Cal Raleigh has matched Rodriguez with 16 home runs since the break, and J.P. Crawford has an on-base percentage over .400 in the second half. Plus ... they're due, right? They're the only franchise never to even appear in a World Series.
Why they won't: The good vibes of that hot streak were lost in a dispiriting 10-game road trip against the Mets, Reds and Rays. With the bullpen running on fumes, manager Scott Servais had Kirby start the seventh inning against the Rays on Friday, and he allowed a tying two-run home run on his 102nd pitch. After the game, Kirby said, "I wish I wasn't out there for the seventh, to be honest." And can the Mariners really hit good pitching? They're 16 games over .500 against the A's, Royals and Rockies ... which means they're just .500 against everyone else.
Verdict: Not real. They have dominated the Astros (8-2, plus-26 run differential), providing some hope, but it does appear the bullpen, which has overachieved all season with waiver-wire pickups like Gabe Speier and Tayler Saucedo, is running out of gas (as are rookie starters Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo). Watching closer Andres Munoz's high-wire act the past month makes it impossible to believe he's going to close out leads in October -- if they even get there. Their final 10 games are against the Rangers and Astros.
Toronto Blue Jays
Why they can win the World Series: It has been a grind, no doubt, but there's also no questioning the talent here. The Blue Jays have five quality starters, and I'd put Kevin Gausman up against anybody else's No. 1. Jordan Romano is a reliable closer, and the Blue Jays have gotten out-of-nowhere production from rookie infielder Davis Schneider, who has a 1.342 OPS and a ridiculous 17 extra-base hits in his first 22 games. They'll get Matt Chapman back, solidifying what has been the best defensive team in the majors via defensive runs saved.
Why they won't: The offense is still "meh," ranking in the bottom half of the AL in runs scored. The bullpen depth behind closer Jordan Romano is a little shaky, although Tim Mayza has pitched well and the Blue Jays should get Erik Swanson back this week. And while Gausman's last start was a good one, he might once again be fading in the second half -- and his playoff starts for the Giants in 2021 and for the Jays last year weren't great (four runs in less than six innings in both outings).
Verdict: Real. They have to get in, of course, and you have to expect Schneider to cool down at some point, but the Jays have the pitching to win it all. It does seem like Gausman is one of the key players of October. If he pitches like an ace, the Jays could surprise (not that they would be a big surprise).
Philadelphia Phillies
Why they can win the World Series: We saw what happened last year. Just get in, baby. Bryce Harper has thrived in the October spotlight (.273/.358/.604 in his career, including .349 with six home runs last postseason). Trea Turner has finally found his hitting groove, and watch out if Kyle Schwarber goes on one of his patented tears at the right time. The pitching staff is solid, if unspectacular -- although Aaron Nola's gopherball issues are a concern -- but I'd argue it has more depth than last season's group.
Why they won't: Who starts the second game of a playoff series? Nola and his 4.64 ERA? Michael Lorenzen really hasn't been good since the no-hitter. Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker are good but don't exactly seem like No. 2 starters on a World Series team. Closer Craig Kimbrel is always an adventure and has served up eight home runs. The Phillies are still one of the worst defensive teams in the majors.
Verdict: Real. They have seven games left against Atlanta. I'm curious to see how those go and if they'll provide some insight into whether the Phillies can beat the Braves in October -- like they did last season.
Minnesota Twins
Why they can win the World Series: How do you win in October? You hit home runs and strike out opposing batters. The Twins' rotation has one of the highest strikeout rates in the majors, and they're in the top third in the majors in home runs (and near the top among the AL playoff contenders). And that rotation is even better if you focus on the top guys -- Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda. Oh, they also have a closer in Jhoan Duran who throws 103 mph. They'll get to host the wild-card series and are 42-30 at home.
Why they won't: There's the little stigma of 18 consecutive playoff losses that the Twins have to overcome. They've mostly beat up on a weak division (although they're only four games over .500 against AL Central opponents). The starters can strike guys out, but other than Gray, the other three (especially Ryan and Maeda) are prone to home runs. The bullpen depth is unreliable, and even Duran has five blown saves and six losses.
Verdict: Not real. If the Twins can get those elephants off their backs and win that first game, you never know, and the offense has an OPS 100 points higher in the second half. Still, it's hard to envision them getting past the Astros and the Orioles or Rays just to get to the World Series.
Milwaukee Brewers
Why they can win the World Series: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta are three right-handers with strikeout stuff, and Woodruff's return after missing most of the season gives them legitimate hopes as an underdog special. The Brewers have an elite closer in Devin Williams, and they've gone 27-15 in one-run games. Maybe it's a cliché to say the Brewers do all the little things well, but that has certainly been their history under manager Craig Counsell.
Why they won't: You have to score runs, and that has been a struggle at times for the Brewers. Christian Yelich and William Contreras are the only regulars with an OPS+ over 100 (rookie Sal Frelick is over in his month-plus with the team, and Mark Canha has hit well since coming over from the Mets). They're 1-5 against the Braves and 1-5 against the Dodgers.
Verdict: Real. Long shot contenders, for sure, but I'd match up their top three starters against anybody, and the bullpen has been super clutch all season. They'll have to scrape together enough runs, but as the No. 3 seed, they'll also get to avoid the Braves until the NLCS -- and maybe the Braves get upset before then.
Tier 3: Just hoping to get in
San Francisco Giants
Why they can win the World Series: A hot bullpen can go a long way in the postseason, and no team has relied more on its pen than the Giants, who lead the majors in relief innings. The Giants have a history of their bullpen coming up big in the playoffs: When they won three World Series from 2010 to 2014, the bullpen was really the star of the team in October, posting a 2.42 ERA with a sub-1.00 WHIP over those three postseasons (the unheralded Jeremy Affeldt allowed just two runs in 26 innings, including 2⅓ scoreless innings in Game 7 in 2014).
Why they won't win: The offense has gone down the tank the past two-plus months, with a .632 OPS in June and .646 in August. The Giants also got shut out in back-to-back games early in September (although, they just had a good weekend against the Rockies). Manager Gabe Kapler can mix and match all he wants, but there just aren't enough sticks here to win 13 games in October.
Verdict: Not real. Since a seven-game winning streak in mid-July, the Giants are 19-29 -- and the bullpen isn't really all that special anyway, ranking in the middle of the pack in the majors in ERA and strikeout rate.
Cincinnati Reds
Why they can win the World Series: Youthful enthusiasm, perhaps? The Reds would be the youngest team to win a World Series since the 1969 Mets. Those Mets also had a losing record the season before, just like the Reds did last season, when they finished 62-100. The 2014 Giants won the World Series coming off a losing season, as did the 2013 Red Sox. None of those teams were as bad as the Reds were, although the 2008 Rays reached the World Series after going 66-96 in 2007. It's possible. Just not very likely.
Why they won't: Only six teams have reached a World Series with a rotation ERA over 4.50 -- and five of those came in the high-scoring era between 1996 and 2007 (the 1996 Yankees had a 4.96 rotation ERA, the highest ever for a team that won the World Series). The Reds are at 5.40, bottom five in the majors. It hasn't been any better over the past 30 days, with a 5.47 ERA. Graham Ashcraft, the team's best starter the past two months, is out because of a toe injury and a COVID-19 outbreak forced the team to call up Connor Phillips for his major league debut and Lyon Richardson and Carson Spiers for emergency starts.
Verdict: Not real. They do have an easy schedule the rest of the way, with only one of their six series against a winning team, but given the state of the rotation, just getting in would be a minor miracle.
Miami Marlins
Why they can win the World Series: In a perfect world, the Marlins roll out Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett as starters in a playoff series -- a rotation potentially good enough to carry a bad offense (the Marlins are last in the NL in runs scored, although September has been their best month) and a mediocre bullpen (although it's top 10 in the majors in strikeout rate). The 20-year-old Perez is a reminder of the Marlins' two World Series titles in 1997 and 2003, when young starters Livan Hernandez and Josh Beckett played postseason heroes.
Why they won't: Alcantara landed on the IL last week because of a right forearm flexor strain that will sideline him for the rest of the regular season and probably into October. Not to mention he just hadn't dominated like last season anyway. But even if the Marlins do get in and the starting pitching without Alcantara is good enough, it's hard to imagine the offense scoring enough runs throughout a playoff run or the bullpen locking down late-game leads.
Verdict: Not real. The Marlins have a minus-46 run differential, not exactly the number of a team that is going to roll through October. They are playing better in September after struggling in July and August, so I'm not ruling out the possibility that they make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2003.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why they can win the World Series: Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly give the D-backs two frontline starting pitchers who can match up with any other duo in the majors. OK, maybe they're not quite Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, but Gallen can certainly get on a roll. He tossed four straight scoreless starts in April, had a five-start stretch in August when he had a 2.01 ERA and just threw a three-hit shutout to beat the Cubs 1-0. Kelly is one of the more underrated starters and has five games with double-digit strikeouts. Only Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman, Freddy Peralta and Shohei Ohtani have more.
Why they won't: The rest of the pitching staff. Who starts the third and fourth games of a series? They're trying to make the playoffs and are still starting Zach Davies (6.81 ERA) and rookie Brandon Pfaadt (6.27 ERA). The bullpen is shaky as well, as even new closer Paul Sewald has allowed 23 baserunners and two home runs in 13 innings since coming over at the trade deadline.
Verdict: Not real. I wouldn't want to play them in a wild-card series, where you would face Gallen and Kelly, but there's not enough pitching here to reach the World Series.