There's a question that has been rooted deep in my brain for years, though I've always known it would take a Herculean effort to answer it: What was the greatest Major League Baseball season of all time?
I don't mean an individual player's historic year. I mean a season that has everything: star players putting up superstar seasons, exciting playoff races, surprising teams, a spectacular World Series. All of it.
It was sometime in June that I realized the 2023 season was shaping up to be something special. Shohei Ohtani was dominating at the plate and on the mound -- perhaps on his way to the most awe-inspiring individual season of all time, even better than his previous two awe-inspiring seasons. Ronald Acuna Jr. was hitting for average, hitting for power and running wild on the bases. Luis Arraez was chasing .400. The Atlanta Braves were on their way to record-setting power numbers. The Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers -- who all had losing records in 2022 -- were sitting in first place in their respective divisions.
Enter Elly De La Cruz. The 21-year-old, 6-foot-5 rookie joined the Reds in early June and became an immediate sensation with his breathtaking range of talents, from crushing a 458-foot home run for his first in the big leagues to recording the fastest home-to-third time in the majors this season.
Off the field, the new rules were a hit among fans, players and pundits. Attendance was up across the league. In late June, during the peak of the Elly frenzy, the Reds drew over 126,000 fans for a three-game series against the Braves, the highest-attended three-game series ever at Great American Ball Park. TV ratings were up. Social media engagements were up. The Atlantic ran a cover story titled: "How Baseball Saved Itself."
Yes, there's plenty of baseball to be played, but it feels safe to say 2023 will be a great season. Could it actually be the greatest season ever? Let's take a deeper look.
I came up with a method to evaluate a season (with the caveat that, of course, the best seasons are the ones when your team wins). My system is subjective, grading the season across various categories that make a season memorable, all weighted differently based on importance. They'll add up to 100 points, with the possibility of extra credit as well.
We won't rate every MLB season here, but we'll call out some particularly memorable ones -- and see how 2023 compares as we head into the September stretch drive.
1. Great individual seasons: 15-point scale
Stars don't sell tickets, at least not by themselves, but they do sell stories. Nobody buys a ticket to see five middle relievers. In your old age, you'll remember watching Ken Griffey Jr. more than Henry Cotto. The stars drive the discussion, particularly if those stars are having preeminent statistical, iconic or record-breaking seasons.
15-point example: 2001. Barry Bonds set the single-season home run record. Sammy Sosa hit 64 home runs and drove in 160 runs. Ichiro Suzuki won Rookie of the Year and MVP. Randy Johnson struck out 372 batters.
2023: Ohtani hurting his elbow and missing the rest of his pitching season certainly put a bit of a damper on his all-around brilliance, but this has already been his most valuable season via Baseball-Reference WAR, primarily because he has taken his hitting to a new level:
2023: 9.9 WAR
2022: 9.6 WAR
2021: 8.9 WAR
And if it it's Ohtani's best season, there is then the argument that this is the best season from any player we've seen -- because, no, what Babe Ruth did or what Bullet Joe Rogan did in the Negro Leagues doesn't compare to Ohtani playing both ways in 2023. It's worth nothing that even Ruth never did both over a full season. In 1918, he didn't start hitting on a full-time basis until a month into the season, and then basically stopped pitching for two months until the Red Sox needed him in the stretch drive. In 1919, he only made three pitching appearances in the final two months. Ohtani made it through nearly three full seasons as a two-way player -- starring on both sides. He's been the best hitter in the majors this season and was leading all starters in batting average allowed when he injured his elbow. Who can forget the doubleheader when he pitched a one-hit shutout in the first game and then hit two home runs in the second game?
Besides Ohtani, we watched Acuna become the first player with 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases in a season. Mookie Betts just had one of the greatest months of all time in August and might now be the National League MVP favorite. Freddie Freeman could become the first player to hit 60 doubles since 1936 (there have been more 60-homer seasons than 60-double seasons). Matt Olson might hit 50 home runs.
To do this more objectively, I took a look at the 10 best seasons in WAR in the seasons since 1950 and added them up. My intuition that the 2001 season would be high on this list was correct -- it ranks third with a total of 90.0 WAR, behind 1972 (91.6) and 1997 (90.2). I'll buy 1997, but I'm not completely buying 1972. Steve Carlton (12.5 WAR) did have a legendary season, winning 27 games for the last-place Phillies -- though that was an era when pitchers threw ungodly amounts of innings -- and Gaylord Perry (11.0 WAR) and Wilbur Wood (10.3) also had monster, if not iconic, seasons. And WAR can sometimes miss a season that is especially memorable: Ichiro's 2001 season, for example, doesn't even rate as one of the 10 best for that year.
As for 2023, if we prorate the current top 10 through the rest of the season, we get about 78 WAR. That's actually a little below the average of 80.1, I think in large part because the best pitchers haven't been as spectacular this season (although Spencer Strider's strikeout rate is impressive). But I think it also underestimates the iconic stature of what Ohtani, Acuna and Betts have accomplished this year.
12 points
2. Exciting playoff races: 15-point scale
It's hard to beat the day-to-day drama of a good race to the postseason -- although some will tell you the last great playoff race was the Braves and San Francisco Giants in 1993, before the wild-card era.
Indeed, I would argue that it's impossible to score 15 points with today's expanded playoffs. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Giants had that heroic NL West battle in 2021, but the Dodgers still had a back door into the postseason as a wild-card team. It's not quite the same as when first place meant everything.
15-point example: 1964 is probably the prime example, back when the pennant winner went straight to the World Series. The NL had four teams alive heading into the weekend and three teams alive entering the final day of the season. In the American League, three teams finished within two games of each other.
2023: This category looked a little more exciting a month ago, when five of the division races were still close. Since then, the Dodgers have pulled way ahead in the NL West -- we'll see if either of the two Central division races end up being close.
Still, we have a dramatic three-team fight in the AL West between the Rangers, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners, and the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays could both win 100 games in the AL East -- bonus points for two 100-win teams battling. Both wild-card races appear as if they'll go down to the wire, with four teams neck and neck for the final spot in the NL. All in all, the playoff races are OK but not great, and we'll need those wild-card races to go down to the final day (such as in 2021, when four AL teams were alive on the final day for two spots).
7 points
3. Exciting rookie class: 10-point scale
Rookies are fun!
10-point example: 2018. Ohtani came over from Japan and shocked everyone, at least until he blew out his elbow two months into the season. Acuna won NL Rookie of the Year as a 20-year-old phenom, and Juan Soto came up as a teenager and hit an incredible .292/.406/.517. Gleyber Torres looked like a future star, and Walker Buehler looked like a future Cy Young winner.
2023: This is another category that looked a little better a couple months ago. De La Cruz still is a phenomenon, but he has struggled to make consistent contact since his first month and hit just .198 in August. Back in June, Corbin Carroll was probably second in the MVP race to Acuna, but the home runs have dried up a bit since then. That said, he's still probably going to finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting, has an outside shot at 30 home runs alongside nearly 50 steals and looks like a generational-type star. Gunnar Henderson is 22 years old and a future MVP candidate as well. Kodai Senga isn't a traditional rookie but has been terrific for the New York Mets.
What makes this class strong, however, is the depth: Eury Perez and Bobby Miller could be staff aces. Josh Jung and Matt McLain should be stars. Triston Casas, Bryce Miller, Hunter Brown, Tanner Bibee, Sal Frelick and Patrick Bailey are some of my other favorites -- and there are also guys like Francisco Alvarez and Anthony Volpe who have shown loads of potential, with Volpe already reaching 20 home runs and 20 steals while playing a plus shortstop.
When Andrew Simon of MLB.com examined the best rookie classes going back to 1947 a few years ago, he found the 2015 rookie class, with a combined FanGraphs WAR of 129.9 (13% of the total WAR available), was the best over that span (2018 ranked 13th). Yep, that was a strong year: Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Noah Syndergaard, Lance McCullers Jr. and Michael Conforto, among others.
When I did the same for 2023 using Baseball-Reference WAR, the total through the end of August was 85.0, putting the class on pace for more than 100 combined WAR -- more than the 2018 total and in the top 10 since 1947.
All in all, it's an impressive group of rookies. One aspect that is especially exciting is the high number of fast players, with Carroll and De La Cruz leading the way (and Esteury Ruiz leads the AL in steals, although we'll see about his hitting), though you also have Frelick, Volpe, Brenton Doyle, Masyn Winn and others.
8 points
4. Great teams: 10-point scale
This applies only to the regular season, with 100 wins an appropriate benchmark.
Parity is boring (sorry, NFL). I want to see teams that win 100 games. Teams that fans of other teams learn to appreciate. Teams we'll tell stories about in future decades.
10-point example: Last year was an impressive example for this category. The Dodgers set an NL record with 111 wins, the Astros won 106 games and the Braves and Mets tied for the NL East title with 101 wins.
2023: I've referred to the past few years in baseball as the era of the super team. Ever since the Chicago Cubs won 104 games (and the World Series) in 2016, we've had anything but parity, with the Astros, Dodgers and now the Braves building their own little dynasties, along with the Boston Red Sox winning 108 games and the World Series in 2018. It's possible we get four 100-win teams for the second year in a row, although only the Braves are a lock to get there.
While they're not going to match the Dodgers' 111 wins, the Braves are certainly a team to remember. They have a chance to break the 2019 Minnesota Twins' record of 307 home runs. They are slugging .500 as a team -- something no team has ever done, not in the juiced-ball season of 1930 or the juiced-player era of the late 1990s.
And, no, a team doesn't have to win a World Series to be considered a great team. That's why I separated this category into regular-season results only. I enjoyed watching the Dodgers last season. I'm enjoying watching the Braves hammer home runs this season. The postseason should be viewed as an entirely different thing (and, yes, it will get its own category).
8 points
5. Surprise teams: 10-point scale
Surprise teams are entertaining and good for the sport.
OK, I just said I like great teams. This is true. But we also don't want complete predictability. If the same teams are always the best teams year after year, that can get tedious. We've had a lot of that in recent seasons -- see all those super teams -- but everyone loves a good underdog, too.
10-point example: 1991. The Twins and Braves both went from last place to first place in their divisions -- and then met in the World Series (and played perhaps the most exciting World Series of all time).
2023: This has been one of the strengths of the 2023 season. We've seen a lot of surprise teams in both directions, and it's what's made this regular season compelling. The Orioles, a consensus fifth-place pick in their division, are certainly the most notable -- FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN all projected them last, none with more than 75 wins -- but they're not alone. The Rangers, Reds, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins have all played better than expected, while the Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals have been much worse than we thought. The Yankees and Cardinals might both be headed towards losing seasons, which hasn't happened in the same year since 1990.
We're giving this a high point total for now, but it's definitely subject to change. To remain high, it would help if the Reds go from 100 losses to the playoffs or if the Marlins make it for the first time in a full season since 2003.
9 points
6. Memorable games/moments/streaks: 10-point scale
Here, we're talking no-hitters, perfect games, hitting streaks, team streaks, crazy games, highlight plays, hot stretches, great achievements, etc -- you know, all those things that make baseball so great. These are the unexpected joys that pop up at random times throughout the season. The more of these, the better.
10-point example: Further research required! On first thought, 2012 -- the year of the no-hitter, when there were seven no-hitters, including three perfect games.
2023: Let's start by just listing a few items here.
The Rays started 13-0 and 20-3 and 27-6.
Arraez was hitting .400 into late June.
Julio Rodriguez set a record with 17 hits over a four-game stretch -- and recorded five four-hit games in a 10-game stretch. Although, Julio's best highlight was maybe his Oscar-worthy performance when he robbed Fernando Tatis Jr. of a home run -- only to delay his reveal that he came up with the catch.
Adolis Garcia went 5-for-5 with three home runs, five runs and eight RBIs April 22. He's one of just 24 players with a five-hit, eight-RBI game; one of just 12 who added three home runs; and one of just four who scored five runs.
Luis Garcia of the Washington Nationals went 6-for-6 back in May, the first 6-for-6 game since 2019.
Baltimore's Ryan Mountcastle drove in nine runs April 11 to tie an Orioles franchise record.
Yankees starter Domingo German tossed the first perfect game since Felix Hernandez in 2012.
The Braves had that incredible month of June when they went 21-4 with a plus-71 run differential, and they also went 21-8 in August with a plus-88 differential. The Dodgers went 24-5 in August with a plus-81 margin. The Mariners, once down 10 games in July, took over first place in the AL West. For the first three months, it appeared as if the A's might challenge the 1962 Mets modern record of 120 losses.
We've had four walk-off grand slams, including Bobby Witt Jr.'s slam off Jhoan Duran, the only one of the four that happened when the team was losing.
How about the Padres going an unfathomable 0-11 in extra innings? They're 11 games worse than their Pythagorean record, which would make them one of the "unluckiest" teams in MLB history. If you want to call it luck.
We already have 11 players with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, the most since 12 did it in 2011. Several others are close to getting there, which could challenge the record of 19 20-20 players set in 1999. One of those is Ohtani, now a member of the 40-20 club for the second time. We could even match the record of four 30-30 players, done just four times previously. Acuna is already there, Witt is two home runs away, Rodriguez and Carroll both need six home runs, Kyle Tucker needs four of each and Lindor needs five of each.
Of note here is that Carroll and Volpe, one of the 11 players already at 20-20, are rookies; Witt and Rodriguez are sophomores. De La Cruz will get here in the future. Oneil Cruz, out most of the season with a broken ankle, could be a 20-20 or 30-30 candidate. CJ Abrams, another sophomore, has quietly compiled 38 steals and 15 home runs. Michael Harris II has two 20-steal seasons in his first two years and certainly has 20-homer potential (he hit 19 last season). The extraordinary number of these power-speed athletes reaching the majors in recent years tells us the game is in very good shape.
All this doesn't even get into the best games of the season. The Kansas City Royals, of all teams, had not only the Witt grand slam win but also rallied to beat the Angels 9-8 after trailing 8-2 in the seventh inning June 17. The Phillies trailed the Mets 6-3 in the bottom of the eighth June 25 only to score four runs that inning -- with the final two coming on bases-loaded hit batters. There was also an error and a bases-loaded walk, qualifying this as not only the saddest Mets loss of the season but possibly the worst any team has suffered.
Maybe the wildest game was the Rays-White Sox game April 30. The Rays trailed 5-2 before scoring seven runs in the eighth and ninth to take a 9-5 lead. But the White Sox scored seven in the bottom of the ninth, including Andrew Vaughn's three-run walk-off home run, to win 12-9. Unfortunately, the win did not turn Chicago's season around.
Anyway, it feels like a lot of fun and fascinating things have happened, certainly more so than the past few years, so I'm giving this a fairly high score while admitting it would take exhaustive research to compare to other seasons.
7 points
7. Award debates: 5-point scale
At times, the award debates feel like they consume too much oxygen. But in truth, that's OK and mostly fun -- we have to pass the dog days talking about something, right?
5-point example: 2012. This was the Miguel Cabrera versus Mike Trout MVP debate (the first one), when Cabrera won the Triple Crown but Trout had the significantly higher WAR. It was old school versus new school -- back when WAR just entering the public mainstream -- established star versus rookie. The heat was intense on this one.
2023: I bring you the NL MVP debate, which is now shaping up as a little supernova of an argument between Acuna and Betts. Acuna had led the odds all season, but then Betts hit .455 with 11 home runs and 30 RBIs in August to soar past Acuna in both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR. Then the Braves went out to Dodger Stadium this past weekend and won the first three games of a four-game series. Acuna hit a home run in each game -- including the hardest-hit home run of 2023, measured at 121.2 mph off the bat, just the fourth home run of the Statcast era clocked at 120 mph. Reminder: This is also the man who leads the major leagues in stolen bases.
Anyway, coming off the kind of weekend he had, it feels like Acuna has jumped back in front (even though Betts homered twice Thursday and went 3-for-4 in Sunday's victory for the Dodgers). The other debates aren't as interesting, though -- Ohtani long ago locked up the AL MVP and neither of the Cy Young races are all that compelling.
4 points
8. The postseason: 25-point scale
How exciting and memorable were the playoffs?
The moments and games from the postseason factor heavily into how a season is remembered. The extra rounds now complicate the evaluation of what makes a great postseason, but you want exciting and close games, unforgettable moments and as many series as possible to go the distance -- with the World Series obviously carrying more weight.
25-point example: 1986. There were just three series that year, but all three were all-time classics: the Mets beating the Astros in the NLCS, the Red Sox beating the Angels in the ALCS and then the Mets battling the Red Sox in an epic World Series.
2023: To be determined.
I will point out that the past two postseasons have been rather blah. Only two of 11 series in 2022 went the distance, although there were a couple memorable moments, such as Yordan Alvarez's walk-off home run for the Astros against the Mariners and Bryce Harper's home run in the NLCS. The 2021 postseason was even worse, with only one of seven series going the distance and few memorable games. The best recent postseason was probably 2017, with a great World Series between the Astros and Dodgers and a seven-game ALCS between the Astros and Yankees.
TBD points
9. Extra credit: Up to 10 points
Here, we're tallying up anything not covered above. The Cubs breaking the curse in 2016, for instance. The Miracle Mets of 1969. Big blockbuster in-season trades. Brawls. Controversies. The George Brett pine tar game. A great Home Run Derby. The introduction of the fried chicken donut at Citi Field. You name it.
Even if something sort of fits into one of the previous categories, we can still give it extra credit. For example, the 2016 World Series wasn't really a great World Series until the final game, but it certainly deserves extra credit for what it meant.
10-point example: 1998. We had the Mark McGwire-Sammy Sosa home run chase -- and, no, we won't go back and retroactively pretend it wasn't every bit as awesome as it was. We also had the Yankees winning 114 games and sweeping the World Series to go down as perhaps the greatest team of all time.
2023: This is where 2023 scores very well, starting with the new rules that have increased stolen bases and decreased the average game time, creating a better, more watchable product. Attendance is up over 2,500 fans per game over the same date from 2022, the largest year-over-year increase since 1998 (which was helped by new expansion franchises in Arizona and Tampa Bay). Twenty-five of the 30 teams have recorded attendance increases, with six showing increases of more than 5,000 fans per game.
Now, MLB would like you to believe that's directly attributable to the new rules. No doubt they have helped bring more fans back to the ballpark (or go more often), but that's only one of the reasons. Having more teams in playoff contention has helped -- the Reds, for example, are up more than 7,000 fans per game. The Phillies, riding their World Series appearance from last year, have the biggest increase at more than 9,000 fans. Only the Nationals and White Sox are down more than 400 fans per game. A return to normalcy post-COVID has certainly played a factor, too, with more people back attending sporting events (and concerts, movies and other public places). Still, the attendance numbers are insightful: Baseball is not dying.
Aside from that, I'm also awarding extra credit to the World Baseball Classic that kicked off the season, with Ohtani's memorable clinching strikeout of Angels teammate Mike Trout. If the Mariners do pull off one of the biggest division comebacks in MLB history, that's also worth a little extra credit. We had a good little brawl between Tim Anderson and Jose Ramirez, symbolic of the White Sox's downfall. We had what was viewed as one of the deepest draft classes in history, headlined by LSU stars Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews. We have all those goofy dugout home run celebrations. Ohtani wasn't traded, but the Mets did trade away two future Hall of Famers in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
9 points
The consensus
Add it all up and we have 64 out of a possible 75 points so far (including extra credit), with the postseason yet to come.
It feels like it's been a riveting season, with twists and turns and intriguing storylines. We need to finish strong to make it one of the greatest seasons ever (and to compare it to other great seasons like 1969, 1998, 2001, 2004 or 2016). Maybe the Braves steamroll through the playoffs and put their final exclamation point on 2023. But my gut tells me we're headed for a magnificent postseason, full of drama, comebacks and Game 7s with everything on the line -- and that will put this season right up with the best of them.