While Shohei Ohtani continues his historic season for the ages -- he could miss the remainder of the season and probably still be the unanimous MVP winner in the American League -- the National League MVP race and the two Cy Young races aren't over yet.
Yes, Ronald Acuna Jr. remains the MVP favorite in the NL as he puts up historic power/speed numbers, but he'll need to finish strong to hold off some strong competition. And the Cy Young races? Let's just say they're still wide, wide open -- especially in the NL.
Let's break down all four races, including the top 10 in each category from Bradford Doolittle's AXE rankings.
NL MVP
Award Index (AXE) Leaders
1. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves (147.1)
2. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (145.7)
3. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (143.9)
4. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (133.9)
5. Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres (133.8)
6. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (131.1)
7. Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (128.4)
8. Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks (128.3)
9. Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs (128.3)
10. Juan Soto, San Diego Padres (127.9)
The favorite
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Why he's the current front-runner: Acuna raced out to the lead in this category early in the season and has been the king of the NL hill ever since. At the end of April, he was hitting .352/.440/.546 with 23 runs and 13 steals. By the end of the day July 4, the NL AXE leaderboard had Acuna first (151) and Betts second (137), while Freeman was sixth (131).
As you can see, things have tightened considerably over the past few weeks, but this remains Acuna's race to lose, even if Freeman and/or Betts manages to overtake him in the value metrics. The traditional categories don't hold as much sway as they used to, but they matter when they get into rarefied territory and the race is otherwise close.
For Acuna, if he picks up his homer pace just a tad, he has a good shot to join Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano in the 40/40 club. He's already over 50 steals, so he would become the inaugural member of the 40/50, 40/60 and maybe even the 40/70 club. All this while hitting over .330, which has been the overlooked aspect of his season. He's on pace to score 147 runs, which would be the most since Jeff Bagwell scored 152 in 2000.
Yes, the race has tightened and it's not over. But if Acuna stays healthy and keeps doing what he's been doing, he stands a great shot at his first MVP award. That his top competitors play for the Dodgers -- whom the Braves currently lead in the race for the NL's best record -- and have both already won MVP awards are two soft factors that could work in Acuna's favor, as well.
The challengers
Mookie Betts
His MVP case: Betts has already drawn almost even with Acuna by bWAR and is in a virtual dead heat with him (and Freeman) in fWAR. When there is separation in those metrics, it's hard to overcome in the eyes of many contemporary voters. Right now, there is no separation.
Betts' arguments would probably rely on the areas of all-around play and versatility. His fielding metrics, as always, are strong, and he has had more positional value than Acuna or Freeman because of his ability to flex into an infield role when called for. This is an all-time great player, six-time top-10 finisher in MVP balloting and six-time Gold Glover as one of the game's greatest-ever right fielders. And this season, because of rare shortfalls on the Dodgers' roster, Betts has played 56 games in the middle infield, including 16 at shortstop, a spot he'd never played in the big leagues.
Of all the amazing things Betts has done, this season more than any other has demonstrated that he can probably do just about anything his team asks him to do.
What Betts needs to do down the stretch to pass Acuna: Keep his torrid August going to the end of the season, thus creating separation in WAR while putting his counting numbers into eye-popping territory. In August, Betts has hit .410/.471/.705, and if he maintains something close to that pace, he could end up with a coveted .300/.400/.600 season, 110-plus RBIs and 130-plus runs scored, all while providing that aforementioned defensive value.
It's a big ask, but the bar has to be set high, as this is one epic MVP chase.
Freddie Freeman
His MVP case: Consistency. You just can't get the guy out. Freeman's metronome-like approach to batting practice has carried over into games to the extent that you can hardly tell the difference whether it's a middle-aged BP hurler on the mound or a triple-digit fireballer -- such as Milwaukee's Abner Uribe, whose 101.6 mph heater Freeman mashed at 107 mph right into that left-center alley he seems to aim for with every swing. (The drive was dropped at the fence by Joey Wiemer and wound up as an error after initially being scored a double.) Freeman somehow makes the stick look larger than it is, as if he's wielding a cricket bat up there.
Freeman put himself in the conversation with a monthlong stretch in which he hit .439/.504/.814. Now he has drawn even with Betts and Acuna (roughly, by fWAR), has an outside shot at chasing down Luis Arraez in the batting title chase and is on pace for 61 doubles, which would be the most by an NL hitter since Joe Medwick in 1936. (That scoring change didn't help.)
What Freeman needs to do down the stretch to pass Acuna: It's going to be tough for Freeman to nudge Acuna or Betts if neither drops off. He just needs to put up numbers, and even then it might not be enough. He might top 20 steals, but that number looks meager next to Acuna's. He also can't match their fielding/positional value. Right now, Freeman also trails Betts and Acuna in the contextual win probability added metric. So he needs big numbers and a cluster of highlight-grabbing clutch hits.
Matt Olson
His MVP case: Olson hits the ball far. He might push 60 homers and drive in 130-140 runs for the NL's best team. He leads the NL in OPS and total bases. In many or even most years, these things would be pretty strong starting points for an MVP argument. Just not this one.
What Olson needs to do down the stretch to pass Acuna: Hit the ball far, which Olson has been doing with increasing frequency. He slugged a healthy .569 before the All-Star break, but since the second half began, that number has soared to .762.
Olson faces a sizable deficit in win probability to all three of the other leading contenders, which is a problem. He needs some of his remaining dingers to be in game-winning situations. Even then, and even if Olson cracks the 60-homer club, he's looking at an uphill battle.
Dave's pick to win NL MVP: I'll stick with Acuna as his combination of power, stolen bases and batting average will be too flashy to ignore -- although I'll be curious to see what happens if Olson really explodes down the stretch and finishes with 60 home runs and 140-plus RBIs. Would those numbers be too big to ignore?
Brad's pick to win NL MVP: Acuna. For me, he's got to provide voters a reason to pick someone ahead of him, and I doubt that's going to happen. Also, while it's possible voters might have a hard time picking between Betts and Freeman as the Dodgers' top candidate, there isn't likely to be a similar uncertainty around Acuna and Olson. Whatever happens, though: What a great MVP chase this is.
AL MVP
Award Index (AXE) Leaders
1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (168.1)
2. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (139.1)
3. Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers (136.9)
4. Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros (134.9)
5. Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox (134.0)
6. Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays (131.0)
7. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130.5)
8. Chas McCormick, Houston Astros (128.7)
9. Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers (127.0)
10. Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays (125.4)
The lock
Shohei Ohtani
Why he's a lock: As mentioned, Ohtani could miss the rest of the season and still win MVP honors -- and perhaps in unanimous fashion. That's how the voting went when he won in 2021, and a second unanimous victory would make him the first player to do so twice (there have been just 19 unanimous winners). Here's how good he has been: He might be the MVP favorite just for his hitting -- even though no full-time DH has ever won the MVP award (Don Baylor was a part-time DH for the Angels in 1979). Ohtani's 1.072 OPS towers over the No. 2 qualified hitter in the AL, Diaz at .907. Using just his bWAR as a position player, Ohtani is tied with Semien at 5.6, and because a large percentage of Semien's value comes from his defense, and MVP voters tend to favor offensive production, Ohtani very well could win. Alas, he also does a little pitching on the side and has racked up another 3.7 bWAR there -- which ranks fourth in the AL. Therefore, he's also a Cy Young contender (although he skipped his latest start because of arm fatigue).
The runners-up
Corey Seager: In a non-Ohtani world, it would be fascinating to see if Seager would rate as the favorite. He's actually tied with Ohtani with a 1.072 OPS but hasn't played enough to qualify for the rate leaderboards, as he has missed 49 games with two separate stints on the injured list. But when he has played, he has hit .348/.411/.661 and racked up more than 5 WAR. If he stays injury-free the rest of the season, he should get to the minimum 502 plate appearances to qualify, and if he maintains a 1.072 OPS, that would be the second-highest ever for a shortstop (Hall of Famer Arky Vaughan had a 1.098 OPS in 1935).
Marcus Semien: Semien is a different type of MVP candidate from his teammate: steady and durable. His rate stats don't blow you away, but he has played every game, will probably win a Gold Glove at an up-the-middle position and leads the AL in runs scored and plate appearances while likely on his way to a 25-homer, 100-RBI season. He has two third-place MVP finishes in his career (2019 with the A's and 2021 with the Blue Jays) and could be headed for another one.
NL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) Leaders
1. Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (137.7)
2. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (136.2)
3. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (134.9)
4. Blake Snell, San Diego Padres (131.6)
5. Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs (129.6)
6. Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (129.5)
7. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (126.2)
8. Alexis Diaz, Cincinnati Reds (125.1)
9. Kodai Senga, New York Mets (124.7)
10. Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers (121.1)
The Favorite
Zac Gallen
Why he's the current front-runner: We're calling Gallen the favorite because he's the leader in AXE. In reality, this race is a muddle, and not in a fun sort of way. Of the top six listed here, Gallen has the third-best ERA and ERA+, but it's fairly close and he has the second-most innings. Of those ahead of him in ERA (Snell and Steele) and innings (Webb), Gallen has the best fielding-independent ERA (3.06).
While bWAR likes Webb pretty strongly, fWAR likes Wheeler, with Gallen a close second. Among the listed starters, Gallen leads in championship probability added, but Diaz trumps all of them in the contextual categories. So, yeah, it's a muddle.
The Challengers
Logan Webb
His Cy Young case: Webb has as good a combination of volume (he leads the NL in innings pitched) and run prevention as Gallen. His fielding-independent numbers are a little worse, but he does lead the NL in walks per 9 and strikeout to walks ratio. He may need to swamp the other in the value metrics (which don't really agree on much on the pitching side of things) as his W-L record might hurt him. (It's 9-9.) I know we're not supposed to look at that, but if all the other categories are close are we not supposed to notice that Webb is 9-9 on a team likely headed for the playoffs? Maybe. Kind of a hard thing to overlook, though, and it's not the lack of wins but the propensity of losses, which suggests that too often Webb has gotten off to slow starts in games. (A theory that is underscored in his splits.)
What Webb needs to do down the stretch to pass Gallen: Not lose any more games, for one. But if Webb can get to 12-13 wins while topping 200 innings with a 3.10-ish ERA, he'll be in the mix.
Zack Wheeler / Blake Snell / Justin Steele / Spencer Strider
Their Cy Young cases: There isn't much separating the pitchers in this group from the top two, and certainly not from each other. Snell has the best ERA but the worst FIP among the top six. Strider has the worst ERA but the best FIP. Wheeler leads in fWAR but has the worst ERA+. Steele has the best W-L record but the fewest innings. This is what we're dealing with here.
What they need to do down the stretch to pass Gallen: Any of the starters listed above can possibly separate themselves by putting together a spree of five or six strong starts down the stretch, especially if they happen in the heat of high-stakes games.
And if no one does create that separation it could possibly open the door for a reliever like Diaz, who has led pitchers in win probability added for most of the season. Diaz has fallen off a bit of late and that has to stop now. But if he throws up zeroes the rest of the way and slams the door in a Reds wild-card clincher, you never know. And don't sleep on Williams, who has been more consistent than Diaz and might be the single biggest reason the Brewers end up in the playoffs.
Dave's pick to win NL Cy Young: This could be anybody -- maybe the weakest Cy Young race since reliever Steve Bedrosian won it in the NL in 1987. Snell has a low ERA but doesn't pitch deep into games and his walk rate is atrocious. Strider has the impressive strikeout rate and the wins (thank you, Atlanta offense), but his current ERA of 3.75 would be highest ever for a Cy Young winner. I'll go with Gallen, who is the best across the board -- for now.
Brad's pick to win NL Cy Young: I don't know! I'll go out of the box and pick Steele. He has been consistent, more so than any of these guys with the possible exception of Snell. And he has got a chance to shine in the spotlight of a Cubs push for a return to the playoffs and/or a division title.
AL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) Leaders
1. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (143.2)
2. Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins (137.1)
3. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (134.2)
4. George Kirby, Seattle Mariners (133.8)
5. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (131.0)
6. Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles (130.1)
7. Framber Valdez, Houston Astros (130.7)
8. Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (129.4)
9. Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins (129.2)
10. Aaron Civale, Guardians/Rays (125.9)
The Favorite
Gerrit Cole
Why he's the current front-runner: Cole is starting to pull away from what is otherwise kind of an uninspiring field of candidates. He's second in ERA behind Nathan Eovaldi, the only two starters in the AL with an ERA under 3.00, but Eovaldi is currently on the IL and about to fall under the minimum qualified innings. Otherwise, Cole leads in Baseball-Reference WAR at 5.1 (Eovaldi and Sonny Gray are tied for second at 3.8), innings pitched, is third in strikeouts, third in lowest batting average allowed (behind Ohtani and Eovaldi), sixth in lowest OBP allowed and first in lowest OPS. He has been effective even though he hasn't been quite as dominant, as his 26.7% strikeout rate would be his first time under 32% since he was with the Pirates in 2017.
The Challengers
Kevin Gausman
His Cy Young case: To show how differently Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs calculate pitching WAR, Gausman leads AL starters in fWAR at 4.3 -- but doesn't rank in the top 10 in bWAR at 2.1. For those who like FIP-based WAR, Gausman might be their guy. His 3.24 ERA does rank in the top 10, but what FanGraphs likes are his exceptional peripheral stats: He leads the AL in strikeouts and strikeout rate while doing a good job of limiting walks and home runs. Baseball-Reference is also dinging him because it believes he's getting a lot of help from his defense. The Blue Jays have also won just two of his past eight starts -- a combination of poor run support and some mediocre performances (including a seven-run outing Wednesday against the Phillies).
What Gausman needs to do down the stretch to pass Cole: Avoid the fatigue he suffered in both 2021 and 2022 when he was in the Cy Young discussion at this point. In 2021, he had a 1.73 ERA in the first half for the Giants, 4.42 in the second half. Last year, it was 2.87 and 3.90. So far this year, it's 3.03 and 4.08. He needs to lower that ERA a bit and probably needs Cole to falter. If the ERA gap is close, Gausman's strikeout advantage could be a deciding factor.
George Kirby
His Cy Young case: This could be Gray or Eovaldi or Ohtani, but Kirby is coming on strong of late, including nine shutout innings against the Orioles last week (when he picked up a no-decision). He's second to Cole in the AL in quality starts (18 to 17) and leads the majors in strikeout to walk ratio since he never walks anybody -- averaging well under one walk per start.
What Kirby needs to do down the stretch to pass Cole: Stay on course and rack up a few more starts where he pitches deep into the game. That will be the big question down the stretch, since Kirby is in his first full season in the majors and is already closing in on the 156 innings he pitched last season between the Mariners and the minors.
Dave's pick to win AL Cy Young: Cole. None of the other contenders has really separated themselves as the clear No. 2 in the race. Of note: Cole is second all-time in Cy Young Award shares among pitchers who have never won, trailing only Adam Wainwright, as he has five top-five finishes, including two runner-up finishes.
Brad's pick to win AL Cy Young: Cole. Dave's right. No one, as of yet, has emerged to challenge him. His biggest issue may simply be that no one wants to vote for one of the 2023 Yankees. The dark horse to me is Kirby, especially if he keeps throwing zeroes down the stretch, and is the biggest reason the Mariners end up in the playoffs.