The turnaround by the Chicago Cubs' offense this season has been so unusual, so remarkable, that for a time, even the executives who shaped the team weren't wholly sure whether the explosive run production was real or a temporary aberration. But on July 26, Jed Hoyer, the Cubs' head of baseball operations and general manager Carter Hawkins, watched the team from seats on the first-base side at Guaranteed Rate Field and saw a comeback that swayed them.
With the front office sitting on the fence about its direction before the trade deadline, the Cubs trailed the White Sox 7-2 at the outset of the fifth inning. Then, with a series of intense plate appearances and two exclamation-point home runs from Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger, the Cubs won 10-7, and Hoyer and Hawkins agreed, yeah, this lineup has the look of a contender.
Into mid-June, the Cubs fielded one of the worst offenses in the majors; on June 12, they ranked 22nd among the 30 teams in runs scored. Since then, only one team has scored more runs than the Cubs.
Total runs, since June 13:
1. Braves, 513
2. Cubs, 463
3. Astros, 460
4. Dodgers, 453
5. Phillies, 430
The Cubs have scored 10 or more runs 14 times in that span. Don't assume this is because of the wind gusting off Lake Michigan, driving the ball out of Wrigley Field. The Cubs lead the majors in runs generated this season without the home run, as researcher Paul Hembekides notes:
1. Cubs, 477
2. Rangers, 473
3. Rays, 463
4. Orioles, 462
5. Dodgers, 457
Here are six reasons the Cubs' offense has evolved so dramatically during the year.
Cody Bellinger is back to MVP form
Bellinger won the MVP award for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2019 by mashing 47 homers and scoring 121 runs, but his production collapsed over the past three seasons, with his strikeout percentage rocketing to a career-worst 27.3% in 2022. Last offseason, the Dodgers -- who had patiently waited for a turnaround -- decided to let Bellinger go, lacking confidence he'd be able to solve his problems.
Bellinger worked diligently on his swing in the offseason, slashing his strikeout rate to a career-low 16.1%, ferociously making adjustments during at-bats and competing pitch to pitch. "His bat-to-ball skills are incredible," Cubs manager David Ross said in a recent phone conversation.
Interestingly, Bellinger's rate of hard-hit balls has plummeted, to a career-low 28.8%. But putting the ball in play more often has led to more hits, and his batting average has almost doubled from 2021, a season in which he was still recovering from a shoulder injury suffered the prior postseason. His OPS has climbed from .542 in 2021 to .903 this season, and he's been the Cubs' best hitter.
Seiya Suzuki has become the player the Cubs hoped he would
Signed to a five-year, $85 million deal before the 2022 season, Suzuki was hitting just .249 with a .717 OPS in early August this season. Ross benched the corner outfielder because he thought Suzuki was overwhelming himself with pressure and hoped he'd benefit from a few days off. Maybe it was in that time, Ross says, that Suzuki was reminded of how much fun it is to play and that he didn't have to beat himself up emotionally.
Since those days off, Suzuki has become one of the hottest hitters in the majors. Over his past 33 games, Suzuki is batting .358, with a .400 on-base percentage and a .699 slugging percentage.
Productive peer pressure
Every team has a distinct personality, and the Cubs are a serious and intense group. If you were a little haphazard and slopped your way through a plate appearance, you'd be an outlier among these guys. Dustin Kelly and Johnny Washington, the team's hitting coaches, have reputations for being steady workers, which seems to match well with Happ, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, et al., who will grind through at-bats.
The Cubs don't have a lot of dynamic All-Star sluggers like the Braves or Dodgers do, but the group tends to string together competitive at-bats, perhaps feeding off each other. Since June 13, the Cubs' hitters have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate and the sixth-best on-base percentage. Hoerner has the fourth-highest contact rate among all hitters this season, and no Cub is among the top 35 in the majors in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone.
They run the bases with high efficiency
FanGraphs' baserunning metric, BsR, measures a combination of factors, from stolen bases to extra bases taken, and since June 13, the Cubs lead the majors in this category by far. The Cubs have been to baserunning what the Braves have been to home runs.
BsR team leaders:
1. Cubs, 13.9
2. Guardians, 8.3
3. Orioles, 7.0
4. Reds, 6.8
5. Diamondbacks, 5.7
When the Cubs face the Arizona Diamondbacks this weekend ("Sunday Night Baseball," 7 p.m. ET on ESPN), they'll be up against a fellow wild-card contender. Arizona has quickly earned a reputation as an incredibly athletic group that flies around the bases. Yet the Cubs have just 22 fewer stolen bases than the D-backs this season. "I do think we have a very attentive group," Hoyer said, "and [a group] a little more athletic than people realize." Swanson, Hoyer notes, doesn't rack up big stolen base totals -- he's got seven this year -- but he will consistently get good secondary leads and take extra bases.
Cubs first base coach Mike Napoli was known as an excellent baserunner during his playing career, despite the fact that he had average or below-average speed. Napoli played with high awareness, anticipating pitches in the dirt and recognizing where opposing outfielders were positioned, and this habit helped him consistently take extra bases. Now it seems to be rubbing off on his new team.
Some unexpected players are having career years
In his 12th major league season, 36-year-old catcher Yan Gomes is having one of his best offensive performances, batting a very respectable .274. Mike Tauchman, a Chicago-area product who had bounced around pro ball in recent seasons, landed a minor league deal after connecting with director of hitting Justin Stone. Since being promoted to the majors in mid-May, he has enhanced the top of the Cubs' lineup with his .359 on-base percentage. Christopher Morel was called up to the majors May 9, hit a home run in his first game and has 22 homers with a 112 OPS+.
Smart roster design
As the Cubs went from rebuilding to attempting to contend again, they took a measured approach in finding the right fits for their lineup, rather than throwing the most money at the biggest free agents. When free agency began last fall, the Cubs focused on Swanson over some of the other premier shortstops because they felt he most embodied what they were looking for -- someone who was very serious about his work. Bellinger was known among the Dodgers organization for being professional even when caught in the deepest valleys of his slumps. Manager Dave Roberts would often talk about how Bellinger always played high-end defense, even when he wasn't hitting. Before the trade deadline, the Cubs dealt for Jeimer Candelario, a former Chicago prospect who had developed into a steady veteran with the Washington Nationals. Candelario is on the injured list now, but the quality of his plate appearances fits the team's style.
The Cubs don't have anyone with 30 homers, and Hoerner is the player with a shot to score 100 runs. They aren't nearly as prolific as the Braves. But for more than half of the season, this team that survived early on because of good pitching and defense has become one of MLB's highest-scoring squads.