Jose Quintana, Julio Teheran, Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Jesse Chavez, Tim Lincecum. That's a list of free-agent starting pitchers the Los Angeles Angels signed over the last six years, all in an effort to plug glaring holes on the cheap. They each obtained one-year contracts guaranteeing no more than $11 million, and combined for a -- gulp -- 6.62 ERA in Angels uniforms.
Angels starting pitchers produced the second fewest FanGraphs wins above replacement during that six-year window, topping only the group fielded by a Baltimore Orioles team that lost more than 100 games three times from 2016 to 2021. Homegrown pitchers didn't develop well enough and minor trades for arms nearing free agency only helped marginally. And so the Angels languished on, wasting away more of Mike Trout's prime without seemingly learning from their own miscalculations.
That brought us to Tuesday morning and a $21 million agreement with Noah Syndergaard, and this astute analysis from Trout himself:
🔥🔥🔥🔥
— Mike Trout (@MikeTrout) November 16, 2021
Syndergaard is still relatively fresh off Tommy John surgery, having made all of two appearances over the last two seasons. But he represents the first true high-upside gamble the Angels have made for their rotation in a long time, and he has the ability to become their first true ace since Jered Weaver, who essentially stopped being one nine years ago.
The Angels probably aren't -- and definitely shouldn't be -- done addressing their pitching staff. But this is the type of move they needed to make, coming off six consecutive losing seasons, the last of which ended with noticeable frustration from both Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Trout, who has famously not won a single postseason game in an otherwise brilliant 11-year career, is heading into his age-30 season and missed the last four months of 2021 with a nagging calf injury. Ohtani, 27, is on the books for only two more years, with no certainty that he can continue to be a two-way powerhouse. Anthony Rendon, signed to a seven-year, $265 million contract two offseasons ago, is now a 31-year-old coming off hip surgery.
Perry Minasian, now in his second year as a major league general manager, recently downplayed the popular narrative that surrounds the Angels, saying: "I know there's a lot made of, 'Is this a window?' 'Do we need to do something in the next year, two years?' Obviously we want to improve the team. We want to be competitive. That's a goal. But I'm of a different mindset. Long term, when you have special players -- Mike being one of them, Anthony being another -- I expect those guys to be productive more than just next year."
But the Syndergaard signing says a lot about the team's immediate urgency, the type Trout, Ohtani and Angels manager Joe Maddon clamored for through their public comments in September. Syndergaard comes with only a one-year commitment, but he will cost the Angels a second-round draft pick because he turned down the New York Mets' qualifying offer and will significantly clog up a payroll that has nearly $102 million committed to three players in 2022 (Trout, Rendon and Justin Upton, who may or may not be part of the team's plans next season).
Syndergaard joins Ohtani and a host of young pitchers, including Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez, both of whom made nice steps forward in 2021. Jaime Barria, Griffin Canning and Reid Detmers will also be part of the mix, but the Angels need more. They need another top-of-the-rotation arm to vault them into contention while their young pitching develops. (For evidence of the Angels' desperation for homegrown pitchers, look no further than a 2021 draft in which all 20 of their picks were starting pitchers, 19 of whom were plucked from the college ranks.)
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer would obviously be ideal but are also probably unlikely. A trade for a younger, more controllable arm is probably the more practical route.
Syndergaard was a dynamo early on, with a 2.93 ERA and 573 strikeouts in 518 1/3 innings from 2015 to 2018 despite missing significant time with a torn lat muscle. In 2019, which amounted to his last full season, he posted a 4.28 ERA and a 3.60 fielding independent pitching in 197 2/3 innings, striking out 202 batters and walking 50. His four-seam and two-seam fastballs still clocked in the upper-90s, but he didn't miss nearly as many bats as he should have.
Then came Tommy John surgery in March of 2020, then a setback stemming from elbow inflammation in May of 2021, then a return in late September. It amounted to two one-inning stints, where his fastballs navigated in the mid-90s. But it's probably best not to draw anything from that, which means who Syndergaard is moving forward -- and specifically, what he can be for the Angels in 2022 -- is a mystery. It also means there's no telling whether this deal will finally help the pitching-deprived Angels get over the top or whether it will leave them near the middle of the pack.
But it's the type of move they needed to make.