For most of new Tiger Eduardo Rodriguez's career, he has been known largely for his mound stoicism -- for the fact that his expression never seems to deviate on the field.
This is why the typically placid Rodriguez surprised some rival evaluators with his emotional slam-dunk of Houston's Carlos Correa in the American League Championship Series. After Correa celebrated a home run in Game 1 of that series by pointing at an imaginary wristwatch -- It's my time -- Rodriguez punctuated a strikeout of Correa in a key moment of Game 3 by mimicking the gesture.
Boston manager Alex Cora immediately rebuked Rodriguez, leaning into the pitcher as he walked off the field and telling him that's not how he wanted the Red Sox to respond.
But to some of the evaluators watching -- many of whom were preparing for the offseason bidding that would lead to Rodriguez's five-year, $77 million deal with the Detroit Tigers -- Rodriguez wasn't showing anyone up, just reacting to a moment. He was acting like someone devoted to taking down opponents. They loved it.
"He is really competitive," said Buck Showalter, who managed the Orioles as Rodriguez ascended in their farm system. "This is someone who is smart, and really wants to win."
He is also someone who has been steadily building toward this big payday -- and a pitcher who is actually a lot better than his 4.74 ERA in 2021 suggests. In a free-agent field graced by future Hall of Famers, Rodriguez might turn out to be one of the year's most undervalued players, even with his new eight-figure agreement.
Since being traded from Baltimore to Boston in 2014, Rodriguez has made 159 regular-season appearances for the Red Sox, generating a 4.16 ERA, and as Cora has acknowledged, he has had an issue with tipping his pitches, inadvertently moving his glove and pitching hand in ways that betray the identity of what he's about to throw. At times, his changeup has been inconsistent.
But Showalter, who managed the Orioles as the Venezuelan-born Rodriguez was coming up through their system, remembers that from an early age there was a lot to like. Brian Graham, the director of player development, would remark on how long Rodriguez's fingers were, and how this allowed the left-hander to grip that changeup deep in the palm of his hand and spin the ball more effectively. Once he mastered it, that would add deception and movement to a pitch that many others struggle to achieve.
Showalter can remember watching Rodriguez in meetings. "He was always looking right at you, listening," Showalter, who now works as an analyst for the MLB Network, said. "Whatever you were saying, he was locked in. A great face; he smiled really easily."
There was a lot to like for the Tigers, too -- that personality, as well as the competitive edge Rodriguez showed against the Astros. In a baseball context, in the Tigers' internal discussions, they talked about how Rodriguez is likely right in his prime. He is the youngest of the premier free-agent starters, and some front-office types have also noted that, because he missed significant time with a knee injury before missing all of 2020 with a COVID-related illness, he hasn't racked up a lot of innings, even for his age -- a factor that sources say Detroit discussed as it launched its pursuit of the left-hander.
They talked about how he has increased his strikeouts and decreased his walks -- his strikeout-to-walk rate last season was 3.94, the best of his career -- and they talked about the soft contact he generates because of his competence in throwing off-speed pitches, and of the numbers that reflect a heightened ability to put away hitters when he's ahead in the count. The Tigers talked internally about Rodriguez's pitch mix, and how it might be enhanced.
And the Tigers, like other teams, talked about the metrics that suggest that Rodriguez pitched better than his results indicate. The opponents' batting average on balls put in play against Rodriguez in 2021 was .363, by far the worst in the majors among pitchers throwing at least 150 innings. The next lowest: Boston's Nathan Eovaldi, at .326, reinforcing the industry perception that the defensively challenged Red Sox infield sometimes sabotaged the performance of the men on the mound. Last year, Rodriguez had the 25th highest ground ball rate among starting pitchers, and with an infield that struggled to turned ground balls into outs, that wasn't always a good thing.
As Paul Hembekides of ESPN notes, his FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching -- was 3.32, tied for 12th best in the majors among all starting pitchers with at least 150 innings. Other pitchers with a similar FIP? Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton and Aaron Nola.
As Sarah Langs of MLB.com posted on Twitter Monday morning, Rodriguez's ERA for 2021 was much worse than what the underlying metrics suggest would have been a more accurate reflection of his performance, based on his strikeout, walk and ground ball rates, among other factors. In fact, the difference between his actual ERA (4.74) and expected ERA (3.52) was the third highest in the majors:
Largest gap between actual & expected ERA, 2021 (min 350 batted balls):
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) November 15, 2021
Andrew Heaney: 1.85 (5.83 ERA, 3.98 xERA)
Aaron Nola: 1.26 (4.63 ERA, 3.37 xERA)
Eduardo Rodriguez: 1.22 (4.74 ERA, 3.52 xERA)
(xERA: Based on quality of contact + walks, strikeouts)
Despite those caveats, one longtime front-office staffer was underwhelmed by Rodriguez's performance with the Red Sox, suggesting last week that his assessment to his team was that the left-hander is more of a "No. 4 starter -- a good No. 4 starter on a good team, but not a frontline guy." His recommendation on contract terms for Rodriguez would've been more in the neighborhood of $10 million a year for three years.
But the Red Sox believed him to be better than that, extending him a qualifying offer of $18.4 million before engaging in what eventually proved to be failed talks on a multiyear deal. And with Detroit intent on augmenting its roster and getting back to contending with the White Sox and Guardians at the top of the AL Central, the Tigers moved aggressively on Rodriguez, inking the first big free-agent contract in a winter in which the market is expected to progress sluggishly.
"I think that when you look back at the signings of this winter," Showalter said, "you'll say, 'That was a pretty good signing.'"