It was an impossible home run, saving a game and perhaps a season.
A noticeable percentage of the Dodger Stadium crowd had already departed to their cars in the vast parking lot at Chavez Ravine as Cody Bellinger came to the plate in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 3 of the NLCS. Trailing 5-2 after losing the first two games, the Dodgers needed something shocking to happen.
With two runners on, Braves right-hander Luke Jackson ran the count to 1-2. During the regular season with two strikes on the batter, Jackson threw his slider 63.7% of the time and his four-seam fastball 31.2%. Bellinger, however, had struggled all season against fastballs, hitting .177 against four-seamers and .119 against four-seamers in the upper third of the strike zone. It was the most well-known gospel in the sport: Bellinger, the 2019 National League MVP, can no longer hit velocity.
So Jackson threw a 95.6 mph four-seam fastball up in the strike zone -- and Bellinger crushed it 399 feet to right-center field for a game-tying three-run homer.
It wasn't a bad pitch from Jackson -- it wasn't even in the strike zone, a pitch Bellinger -- and many other batters -- often flail helplessly at. After the Dodgers went on to win the game, Jackson said he would throw the same pitch again.
"Yeah, it's not a hitter's pitch right there," Bellinger said after the game, "but in the moment, whatever happened, I saw it, and I just tried to put the barrel on it and continue to pass the baton."
The pitch was 4.12 feet above home plate -- not just the first home run Bellinger has hit all season on a pitch out of the strike zone, but the first postseason home run since at least 2008 hit on a 95 mph-plus fastball that was at least four feet above the plate. Somehow, it was possible.
The fastball has always been at the heart of the game. "Everybody likes fastballs, just like everybody likes ice cream," Reggie Jackson once said. "But you don't like fastballs when someone's stuffing it into you by the gallon." Back in the early days of baseball, the mound was moved back from 50 feet to 60 feet, 6 inches in 1893 in large part because Amos Rusie and Cy Young threw harder than anybody had seen before.
If Rusie and Young created the first fastball revolution, we've been in the midst of another one for the past half-decade or so: more velocity, more spin, more swings and misses, more unhittable high-octane heaters at the top of the strike zone.
As you watch the rest of the 2021 postseason, the ultimate winner may come down to who creates the most damage against those high fastballs -- or which pitchers can blow hitters away with them.
Kyle Schwarber's home run off Gerrit Cole in the AL Wild Card Game? A four-seam fastball at the top of the strike zone.
Joc Pederson's pinch-hit three-run home run for the Braves off the Brewers' Adrian Houser in the NLDS that broke open a 0-0 Game 3? A four-seamer at the top of the zone.
J.D. Martinez's grand slam off Luis Garcia in Game 2 of the ALCS? A four-seam fastball that Garcia didn't get up high enough.
Schwarber's grand slam in Game 3 off Jose Urquidy? A four-seam fastball on a 3-0 count.
We can go in the other direction as well. The biggest out of the postseason so far came in the top of the 13th inning in Game 3 of the ALDS between the Red Sox and Rays. Boston's Nick Pivetta struck out Tampa Bay's Mike Zunino with two runners on and two outs on a riding four-seamer above the strike zone. Christian Vazquez hit a walk-off home run two batters later.
One of the ongoing, shall we say, discussions this postseason has been the constant churn of pitchers. Starters don't pitch deep into a game like in the good old days, a certain subset of baseball fans will constantly remind you, and then we get reliever after reliever after reliever. The suggestion is that starting pitchers are soft compared with their counterparts in the past, or simply not as good. Whether this is the best possible form of baseball entertainment is certainly a worthy debate, but not as good? Just watch the games and see the quality of the stuff. The average fastball velocity this postseason is 94.9 mph -- compared with 93.4 mph in the regular season. Nearly 19% of all fastballs have been fired at 97 mph or faster and the rate is even higher for relievers. Amos Rusie -- The Hoosier Thunderbolt -- would be impressed.
What's happened in recent seasons, however, is not just increased velocity, but a change in fastball philosophy. Thanks to pitch-tracking technology, teams can monitor spin rate and movement. Biomechanical technology helps pitchers fine-tune their deliveries to find more speed. Spin is important because the more spin on a fastball, the longer it holds its plane and the harder it is to hit. Bill James once wrote, "Throwing a fastball is different from a throwing a curve, throwing a slider, or throwing a knuckleball in that it is not so much a skill as it is a talent." That is mostly true, but modern training methods and technology -- and shorter relief stints where pitchers can air it all out -- have helped many pitchers improve their velocity.
The philosophical change has come in the types of fastballs being thrown -- more four-seamers up in the zone and fewer two-seamers (or sinkers). Four-seamers tend be thrown a little harder and generate more swing-and-miss results while two-seamers generate more ground balls. We only have data going back so many years, but check the change in fastball percentages since 2011:
2011: 58.4% four-seamers, 41.6% two-seamers/sinkers
2021: 69.4% four-seamers, 30.6% two-seamers/sinkers
Pitchers are also throwing more four-seamers high in the strike zone:
2011: 55.8% in upper half of zone, 38.6% in upper third
2021: 61.3% in upper half of zone, 44.5% in upper third
Front-office analysts love those fastballs up in the zone because they create more swings and misses. In the regular season, batters hit .236/.322/.426 against four-seamers in the upper half of the strike zone (and .202/.283/.343 against four-seamers of 95-plus). Meanwhile, batters hit .281/.361/.432 against two-seamers and sinkers.
How important are results on high fastballs? The pitching staffs with the lowest OPS allowed on four-seam fastballs in the upper half of the strike zone were the Rays, Brewers, Giants and White Sox -- all playoff teams. The Dodgers and Cardinals also ranked in the top 10. On the offensive side of things, the Astros, Brewers, Braves, Giants and Dodgers all ranked in the top eight in OPS against four-seam fastballs in the upper half.
Now this is where things get really interesting: In the postseason, hitters are hammering four-seam fastballs. Through Tuesday's games, there had been 66 home runs hit. The breakdown by pitch:
Four-seam fastball: 31
Slider: 15
Curveball: 9
Changeup: 6
Two-seam fastball: 2
Cutter: 2
Splitter: 1
Focus on the two different types of fastballs: 31 to 2. Yes, pitchers throw more four-seam fastballs, so you would expect more home runs against them, but in the regular season the ratio was 3-to-1, not 15-to-1. Overall, batters are hitting .262/.347/.452 against four-seam fastballs -- and .276/.342/.326 against two-seamers. (Of the six home runs on Wednesday, four came on four-seam fastballs -- including all three the Braves hit off Julio Urias. One came off a sinker and one off a splitter.)
What's going on? I went through and logged and watched video of all 31 home runs against four-seam fastballs. It's not for want of velocity: The average pitch clocked 95.4 mph. The fastest pitch hit for a home run was Jose Altuve off Liam Hendriks' 98.7 mph heater in the ALDS. Kyle Tucker (off Michael Kopech) and Xander Bogaerts (off Shane Baz) also crushed pitches of 98 mph. Four pitchers have allowed two home runs off their four-seamers: Walker Buehler, Pivetta, Darwinzon Hernandez and Tanner Houck. Schwarber, Rafael Devers and Will Smith are the batters with two home runs.
Four of the home runs have come on pitches that were out of the strike zone -- Bellinger's blast (the pitch had a 0.0% strike probability if Bellinger had not swung), Schwarber off Cole (7.5% strike probability), Pederson off Houser (4.3%) and Jordan Luplow off Chris Sale (1.3%). Luplow's was the most remarkable of all, as he took a 94.2 mph fastball up and away and still pulled it out to left field.
Mostly though, the issue is twofold: Pitchers are missing their locations in the middle of the zone -- and major league hitters are really, really good. They don't miss those pitches in the middle of the plate too often, no matter the velocity. The home run Darin Ruf hit off Urias in Game 5 of the NLDS: catcher Will Smith set up inside, Urias left out in the middle of the plate. Austin Riley's home run off Tony Gonsolin earlier in the NLCS: Smith sets up and in, but Gonsolin leaves it middle in. The home run Smith hit off Max Fried in Game 1 was a poorly located 0-2 fastball that Fried didn't get far enough inside.
In Game 3 against the Dodgers, Charlie Morton -- a starter with a sterling postseason history who turned his career around by throwing more high fastballs -- walked four batters and allowed a two-run home run to Corey Seager. He settled down and pitched four scoreless innings after that. One thing he did was throw his four-seam fastball less often the rest of the way.
"I don't know if it was necessarily backing off," Morton said after the game. "I think it was just my changeup was there and my cutter was there. My curveball, I think my curveball was fine. Aside from the home run, I think I threw some pretty good breaking balls. It was just that the four-seamer, the command wasn't there early."
You do wonder how much playoff adrenaline comes into play, even for an experienced postseason pitcher like Morton. Pitchers are ramped up, they sometimes crank up the velocity a little bit, but maybe lose a little command in the process. Two-seamers are easier to command and pitchers aren't giving up home runs off those pitches. Maybe there's a lesson there.
Throwing high fastballs is hardly a reinvention of the game. "The good rising fastball is the best pitch in baseball," Tom Seaver said. Different terminology than is used today, but the same idea: A high-spin fastball used to be called a rising fastball.
Back in the 1978 World Series, young Dodgers fireballer Bob Welch struck out Reggie Jackson in an epic, nine-pitch confrontation to close out Game 2, throwing blistering 100-mph fastballs up in the zone. Reggie got his revenge in Game 6, however, with a titanic two-run home run off Welch to clinch the series.
Now this October's deciding moment could very well be whether a slugger connects with a triple-digit high heater -- or walks back to the dugout shaking his head after swinging and missing for a crucial out. But part me of wonders: Maybe a good sinker at the knees is just as effective.