People love to complain about baseball. We get it. Postseason games are long. Managers churn through often anonymous relievers. And whatever happened to starters pitching all nine innings?
Yes, postseason baseball might be different from the style you grew up watching and learned to love. Or maybe you're falling in love with it now and don't understand laments about the past. It has changed through the years -- and ESPN baseball writers Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield show you how -- but different doesn't mean worse.
October baseball is arguably more exciting than ever. Here's why.
There are many more acts in the October drama
The trend:
Average number of postseason games per season
1960s: 6.6
1970s: 14.0
1980s: 17.6
1990s: 25.3
2000s: 32.2
2010s: 35.6
2020: 53
It's a straightforward proposition: The more teams you have in the postseason, the more postseason games you're going to get. There is a precious tradeoff to be maintained between giving us as much of that special October drama as possible, without selling out the six-month proof of concept that is the baseball regular season.
Last year's 16-team field might have messed with that balance, but the format in place for most of the past decade, and the one that's back this season, does a great job of rewarding both phases of the season.
How it adds drama: On one hand, more games means more drama. On the other, there are competitive ramifications. Teams can and do condense their rosters for the playoffs. There is no shuttling of relievers or a merry-go-round of waivers and claims like in the regular season. As ever, a hot player can carry you in a short series. And, yes, even a seven-game series is a short series given the protracted sorting-out process that is endemic to baseball.
Nevertheless, in a three-round setup (or four, if you're a wild-card team), depth matters more in Octobers today than it did in the misty past, when the Fall Classic was all the postseason we got. In 1965, Sandy Koufax carried the Dodgers to a championship by logging 40% of his team's innings. The top October innings-eater on last season's championship Dodgers squad was Clayton Kershaw, who accounted for 19% of L.A.'s total innings pitched.
The stars still matter in October. They matter a lot. But to survive a month-long playoff bracket, they can't do it alone.
What it means for 2021: The format favors the teams with the most roster depth. This season, that favors the Rays in the American League, and the Brewers, Dodgers and Giants in the National League.
The spotlight has never been brighter on the hitter-pitcher matchup
The trend:
Postseason three-true-outcome percentage
1960s: 29.2%
1970s: 24.1%
1980s: 27.3%
1990s: 31.5%
2000s: 31.3%
2010s: 38.8%
2020: 39.2%
The term "three true outcomes" has become mainstream in baseball circles but for the uninitiated, it simply means a plate appearance that ends in a walk, strikeout or home run. In other words, only the pitcher and the hitter are involved in the outcome. The trend toward more three-true-outcome results has accelerated in recent seasons, likely due to the growing influence of analytics-based strategies in the game.
How it adds drama: While this trend remains a growing concern in the regular season, during the playoffs, it does not have to be a problem. The essence of baseball is the matchup between the hitter and the pitcher, and these one-on-one contests are a bigger part of the game than in any other team sport.
In October, you've got the best hitters (for the most part) facing down the best pitchers (for the most part) again and again. The broadcast feeds us information to enhance our appreciation of these encounters. What does the pitcher throw? How does this hitter fare against that kind of arsenal? What is the history between these two players?
At the end of every matchup, someone wins and someone loses. But in a series, that matchup is going to come around again and we get to think along with the players about how what we've seen will inform what's going to happen.
What it means for 2021: Six of the top 10 teams in three-true-outcome percentage on offense made the playoffs: The Yankees, Rays, Giants, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers. On the pitching side, the Brewers, Dodgers, White Sox, Yankees, Red Sox and Rays landed in the top 10 in strikeouts. The Giants, Cardinals, Dodgers, Brewers, Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, Rays and Astros were in the top 10 of limiting homers. And the Giants, Rays, White Sox, Dodgers and Yankees were top 10 in limiting walks.
During the 2020 regular season, the three-true-outcome percentage was 36.1%, so that figure rose by more than 3% last October. The teams listed in the last paragraph are best built to play that style. And the Rays and the Dodgers are the only two clubs to show up on all of them.
Home runs turn the scoreboard
The trend:
Percentage of postseason runs scoring via the home run
1960s: 43.7%
1970s: 26.1%
1980s: 37.2%
1990s: 40.5%
2000s: 35.4%
2010s: 46.6%
2020: 51.3%
With the most vicious and deepest pitching staffs populating the October bracket, and the need to manage pitchers' exertion pushed to the side, putting the ball in play is harder than ever. Thus, so too is stringing together hits to mount a rally. Which explains why an increasingly large portion of October scoring comes from the long ball.
How it adds drama: The batter-pitcher matchup wouldn't have much drama to them if the pitchers always won. But they don't, and it's often one mistake that ends up over the fence that decides a playoff game. From the advent of the divisional era (1969) through 2016, there had never been a postseason in which half the runs scored via the homer. Since then, there have been two -- 2017 and last season, when a record 53 playoff games were played.
Again, you want more than homers to hold your interest during a long regular season. But during the playoffs, when each matchup carries such high stakes, and every run means so much, and you know what will happen if the pitcher leaves the wrong pitch in the wrong quadrant to a locked-in, postseason-caliber hitter, this is a drama that builds and builds.
And when that one crack of the bat comes, the buildup is worth it.
What it means for 2021: Seven of the 10 playoff teams ranked in the top 10 in homers: Giants, Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Yankees, Astros and Red Sox. Of those, one stands out: The Giants got nearly half their runs this season (49.5%) via the long ball, the highest figure in the majors. San Francisco's pitchers allowed the fewest homers as a staff. One way or another, the home run ball is likely to be a bigger story for the team that led the major leagues with 107 wins than all these other homer-dominated clubs.
Aces aren't throwing complete games anymore but can define the postseason like never before
The trend:
Percentage of complete games in the postseason
1960s: 36.4%
1970s: 18.2%
1980s: 14.5%
1990s: 6.6%
2000s: 3.3%
2010s: 2.2%
2020: 0.0%
Old-timers love to point out that Bob Gibson completed eight of his nine career World Series starts or that Sandy Koufax threw a shutout in Game 7 of the 1965 World Series on two days' rest or that Jack Morris pitched all 10 innings in his legendary 1-0 victory in Game 7 in 1991. Even in Morris' time, however, complete games had grown rare. For three postseasons now, we've had none (the last one was Justin Verlander in Game 2 of the ALCS in 2017 and the last complete-game shutout was Madison Bumgarner in the 2016 NL Wild Card Game).
This decline in complete games mirrors what has happened in the regular season. Consider, however, that Gibson and Koufax had to gear up for, at max, only three starts in the World Series. Today's starters have to anticipate an entire month of high-leverage, high-intensity baseball, perhaps making up to as many as six starts.
How it adds drama: A great starter can still dominate the postseason -- he just now has to do it over an entire month, the storyline and anticipation building from start to start. Can he do it again? Consider some of the heroic performances from starting pitchers over the past decade:
Chris Carpenter for the Cardinals in 2011 (4-0, 3.25 ERA in six starts, including 1-0 shutout over Roy Halladay in Game 5 of the NLDS and a win in Game 7 of the World Series on short rest)
Jon Lester for the Red Sox in 2013 (4-1, 1.56 in five starts, the one defeat a 1-0 loss) and then the Cubs in 2016 (3-1, 2.02 ERA over six appearances)
Bumgarner's all-time postseason for the Giants in 2014 (pitching 52 innings over a span of 29 days with a 1.03 ERA, including two shutouts and five scoreless innings in relief in Game 7 of the World Series)
Stephen Strasburg for the Nationals in 2019 (4-0, 1.98 ERA over six appearances, including two World Series wins over the 107-win Astros)
These more recent achievements are every bit as impressive as the ones we still remember from decades ago.
What it means for 2021: We're already missing a couple big-name starters with Clayton Kershaw getting injured in his final regular-season start and Gerrit Cole going down in the wild-card game, but there are no shortage of candidates to go all Bumgarner on us. Corbin Burnes, like Bumgarner in 2014, has the ability to carry an undermanned offensive lineup on his shoulder. So might his teammate Brandon Woodruff. Burnes led the NL in strikeouts per nine innings and fewest home runs per nine (and nearly in fewest walks as alone). That's the perfect formula for postseason dominance.
Nathan Eovaldi is another one to watch, especially because he already has a win in the wild-card game under his belt. If you want sleeper candidates, let's nominate Framber Valdez of the Astros. He's another pitcher who is stingy in allowing the home run and he had an excellent postseason run last year, with a 1.88 ERA over 24 innings. Maybe he can help to finally deliver a World Series title to Dusty Baker.
The chess game begins the third time through the order
The trend:
Average additional batters faced in starts of at least 18 batters
1960s: 11.9
1970s: 10.5
1980s: 9.6
1990s: 9.0
2000s: 7.5
2010s: 6.0
2020: 4.2
This means in the 1960s, excluding outings in which the starter got knocked out early, the pitcher faced an additional 11.9 batters -- or 29.9 per game. That number has continued to drop through the years and has really dropped in recent seasons as managers become more aware that most pitchers start getting hit harder the third time through the batting order. Those numbers across the majors in 2021:
First time: .707 OPS allowed
Second time: .746
Third time: .778
No, great pitchers aren't necessarily excluded from this. Even Gibson wasn't immune. Check his record in the World Series:
First time: .389 OPS allowed
Second time: .474
Third time: .660
Fourth time: .568
How it adds drama: Just look back to last year's controversial Blake Snell decision, when he had handcuffed the Dodgers into the sixth inning of World Series Game 6 with a 1-0 lead. He gave up a one-out single, and Kevin Cash took him out -- three batters later and the Dodgers were up 2-1, en route to a series-clinching 3-1 victory.
Cash went with the analytics instead of his gut -- or what Tony La Russa might call the eye test. When it didn't work out, Cash got vilified and his own pitcher questioned him. Did he make the wrong move? These are decisions managers will have to make throughout the postseason. Ride the starter or go to the bullpen: It's not always an easy decision.
What it means for 2021: If the AL Wild Card Game was an indication, the quick hook will continue. Eovaldi was sailing along with a 3-0 lead in the sixth inning. With one out, he gave up a cheap Pesky Pole home run to Anthony Rizzo and an infield single. Eovaldi's 2021 numbers:
First time: .648 OPS allowed
Second time: .670
Third time: .780
Alex Cora pulled him. Unlike Cash's decision, this one worked out (with a little help from Yankees third-base coach Phil Nevin).
Among this year's postseason starters, Valdez faced the most batters on average per game at 26.4, while teammate Lance McCullers Jr. ranked fourth (with Adam Wainwright second and Walker Buehler third). Will Baker continue to ride those two or will he trust a bullpen that was shaky at times during the regular season? The obvious shortest-hook candidates go to all the young Tampa Bay starters, especially Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen. Cash isn't about to deviate from his plan. He'll once again hope to get five innings from his starters and turn the game over to his bullpen. Freddy Peralta is another quick hook (21⅓ batters faced on average), as is Chris Sale, who also faced 21.1 per game in his nine starts in returning from Tommy John surgery.
Ultimate October arms are the new difference-makers
The trend:
Average number of pitchers who appeared as both starter and reliever in the postseason
1995-1999: 5.8
2000s: 4.3
2010-2016: 4.6
2017-2020: 11.3
We're going back to just 1995 for this one, with the advent of the expanded playoffs. As recently as 2006, no pitchers appeared in both roles. In 2008, it was just one. In 2015 and 2016, it was four each season.
This strategy has really picked up in recent years, though -- especially with the eventual World Series champion. The Astros kind of fell into it in 2017 when closer Ken Giles struggled and manager A.J. Hinch ended up using Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock and McCullers in both roles -- with McCullers closing out Game 7 of the ALCS with four scoreless innings and Morton pitching the final four innings in the World Series. All five of Cora's starting pitchers appeared in both roles for the Red Sox in 2018, with Sale getting the final outs of the World Series. The Nationals had a thin bullpen in 2019, so Dave Martinez used Patrick Corbin for three starts and five relief appearances, while Strasburg and Max Scherzer also made relief appearances. The Dodgers did a little bit of everything in 2020, with starter Julio Urias closing out both the NLCS and the World Series.
Just a few years ago the perfect October blueprint appeared to be building a dominant bullpen, as the Royals had done in reaching back-to-back World Series in 2014 and 2015. Apparently, it's not quite so easy to find three or four dominant relievers who can carry you game after game. In October, as we've seen with Giles, or Craig Kimbrel in 2018 or Jansen in 2020, there is no time for a struggling closer to work through his problems. The best postseason managers have to adjust on the fly.
How it adds drama: Who doesn't remember Randy Johnson coming in for the Mariners in 1995 or the Diamondbacks in 2001? Or Bumgarner coming on for the Giants in 2014 for those five innings? Those were do-or-die, emergency situations, and there's nothing more dramatic than an ace coming on in relief in a deciding game.
But based on the past few seasons, however, that strategy is no longer only for clinching games, and it is no longer just for aces. In both 2019 and 2020, 12 pitchers appeared in both roles. Managing a pitcher is no longer as simple as hoping your starter goes seven or eight and can hand the ball off to Mariano Rivera. So this adds to the chess match and adds intrigue -- and the possibility of second guessing -- as managers put pitchers in roles they didn't have in the regular season.
What it means for 2021: Perhaps the most interesting team to watch here is the Brewers. They have the best closer in the game in Josh Hader, but lost top setup man Devin Williams for the postseason after he broke his hand punching a wall. Given how good Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta were, Craig Counsell will certainly be tempted to use those three for a few outs in a big situation, especially because he also has two other solid starters in Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer. We know Cash will use any pitcher in any situation, although asking rookies Shane McClanahan, Baz and Luis Patino, plus first-time starter Rasmussen, to perform both tasks is a big request (and the Rays have plenty of bullpen depth anyway).
Because Cora did this in 2018, don't be surprised if he considers it again. The Red Sox's bullpen did the job in the wild-card round, but it has been shaky in the second half. Cora used Tanner Houck for an inning against the Yankees, and Houck could also end up starting in the later rounds. And don't be surprised if Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez or Nick Pivetta also appear in relief at some point.