The 2021 MLB playoffs are down to the final four.
The Boston Red Sox battle the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series, while the Atlanta Braves meet the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.
So who has the edge?
Alden Gonzalez breaks down each team's strengths, weaknesses and keys to winning a pennant, while David Schoenfield takes a closer look at the storylines to watch with a trip to the World Series hanging in the balance.
LCS Power Rankings
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Bradford Doolittle's updated World Series odds: 44.3%
How they got here: The Dodgers won the World Series during the shortened 2020 season, finally breaking through after nearly a decade's worth of dominance that had ended in disappointment. Trevor Bauer, their big offseason acquisition, has been away from the team since early July because of sexual assault allegations. But the Dodgers, already supremely talented in all facets, elevated themselves to another level by acquiring Max Scherzer and Trea Turner before the trade deadline. Turner joined a dynamic lineup featuring Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Justin Turner and Will Smith. Scherzer joined Walker Buehler and Julio Urias at the top of the rotation. The Dodgers missed out on their ninth consecutive NL West title by one game, but they led the majors in run differential, walked off against the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card Game and got past the division rival Giants in the NLDS.
Their biggest strength: Their lineup can be fierce, but it has also been prone to precipitous highs and lows. The hallmark of the Dodgers is their pitching. The staff led the majors in ERA during the regular season and its top three starters -- Scherzer, Buehler and Urias -- combined to go 51-11 with a 2.62 ERA, recording more than five times as many strikeouts as walks. But the bullpen should not be overlooked. Blake Treinen can go multiple innings and has proven adept at escaping tough jams, Kenley Jansen has turned in another elite season as the closer, Alex Vesia has emerged as a go-to left-hander and Joe Kelly has been very effective, too. Add Corey Knebel and Brusdar Graterol and you have one of the deepest, most overpowering groups in recent memory.
Their biggest weakness: The final weekend of the regular season was quite unkind to the Dodgers. First, Clayton Kershaw exited his final start with a recurrence of the elbow/forearm inflammation that kept him out for more than two months earlier this season. Then Max Muncy dislocated his elbow on a close play at first base. Kershaw has been ruled out for the rest of the season and Muncy seems unlikely to contribute in the foreseeable future. The Dodgers will spend what remains of their season scrambling to replace them. They don't have a clear fourth starter, as evidenced by Buehler pitching on short rest for the first time in his career in NLDS Game 4. And there is a major void in their lineup with Muncy -- an elite power hitter who's also among the game's most patient at the plate -- not occupying the middle of it.
What they need to do to reach the World Series: The Dodgers will need production from Cody Bellinger, whose defense in center field and at first base will have him in the lineup on most nights, especially against an opposing right-hander. Bellinger slashed just .165/.248/.302 during the regular season, but he has had some encouraging moments in the postseason: his ninth-inning walk in the NL Wild Card Game, his two-run double in NLDS Game 2, his two-hit night in NLDS Game 4 and, of course, his game-winning single in the ninth inning of NLDS Game 5. Not surprisingly, all four of those games were Dodgers victories. -- Gonzalez
Dodgers must-read: Inside Albert Pujols' third act (ESPN+)
2. Houston Astros
Doolittle's World Series odds: 27.9%
How they got here: Mostly, by rising above the hate. More tangibly, by pulverizing the baseball, being elite on defense and getting just enough pitching. The Astros' high-powered offense slogged through most of the 2020 season, but that was not the case in 2021. Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez all bounced back, while Kyle Tucker emerged as one of the game's best hitters and Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley provided the type of production one would expect from them when healthy. Zack Greinke fell off and Jake Odorizzi didn't contribute the way the Astros would have hoped, but Lance McCullers Jr. emerged as an ace, and young pitchers such as Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Framber Valdez continued to develop. The Astros stormed to the top of the AL West, rolled past the Chicago White Sox in the first round and now enter their fifth consecutive ALCS.
Their biggest strength: The Astros led the majors in runs and trailed only the Toronto Blue Jays in OPS during the regular season, then batted .288/.371/.432 while overwhelming the White Sox in the ALDS. When they're going well offensively, the Astros are simply devastating. Eighteen of the Astros' 31 runs in that series came with two outs, and that is no coincidence. This is an experienced group accustomed to the tension of October that can manufacture runs in different ways. Here's all you need to know about Houston's lineup: Gurriel, who won the AL batting title, hit seventh in Game 3 of the ALDS, and Tucker, who ranked fourth in the league in weighted runs created plus, batted seventh in Game 4.
Their biggest weakness: The Astros' bullpen got better with the late-July arrival of Kendall Graveman, who slid into the setup role and made a nice backend combination with Ryan Pressly, a dominant closer in 2021. But Graveman hasn't been as dominant as he was with the Seattle Mariners earlier this season, and outside of that there are questions. Ryne Stanek has been solid of late, but Brooks Raley, Cristian Javier, Yimi Garcia and Phil Maton have combined for a 5.01 ERA since the start of August.
What they need to do to reach the World Series: The Astros were dealt a devastating blow on Friday, with McCullers left off the ALCS roster because of the forearm discomfort that caused him to exit his previous start early. So what the Astros need to advance into the final round is clear: Valdez, Garcia and Urquidy need to step up, as do Greinke and Odorizzi, who will undoubtedly play a bigger role moving forward. -- Gonzalez
Astros must-read: Can MLB's villains win back baseball's respect? (ESPN+)
3. Boston Red Sox
Doolittle's World Series odds: 13.6%
How they got here: The Red Sox are the closest equivalent of the now-departed San Francisco Giants -- residing in a dominant division, expected to tread water, then blowing past projections while on their way to a potential World Series run. The big question around the Red Sox revolved around their starting rotation, but Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Pivetta each made 30 starts in support of a potent offense, and Chris Sale provided a nice boost for most of September. The Red Sox led the AL East by 2 1/2 games on the morning of July 29, but had fallen five games back by the night of Aug. 10. The second half of September began with a seven-game winning streak and ended with losses in five of their last six. But they swept the Washington Nationals in their final regular-season series, defeated the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game and beat the AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays in a tight division series.
Their biggest strength: Their offense, particularly lately. The Red Sox scored the fifth-most runs and boasted the second-highest slugging percentage during the regular season, and Enrique Hernandez, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez, Kyle Schwarber, Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo all produced in the ALDS. Sometimes teams that have to surge just to get into the postseason ride that momentum through October (see: Colorado Rockies, 2007). The Red Sox might be that team this year.
Their biggest weakness: Boston's bullpen struggled through a 4.42 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in the second half, with Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino serving as the major culprits. But Garrett Whitlock, a Rule 5 pick plucked from the Yankees' system, stepped up. And in the postseason, Red Sox manager Alex Cora has done a good job utilizing Pivetta and Tanner Houck for high-quality bulk innings, a strategy akin to the one he used in the team's championship run of 2018. That option is available to Cora in the ALCS, at least in the first couple of games.
What they need to do to reach the World Series: Sale and Devers, arguably Boston's two best players, need to be healthy and right. Sale, who made his return from Tommy John surgery in the middle of August, had a 4.97 ERA over his last three regular-season starts, then allowed five first-inning runs in Game 2 of the ALDS. Devers is nursing discomfort in his right forearm that seems to show up when swinging at pitches at the top of the zone. Devers has whiffed on all four of the high pitches he has seen in the playoffs. -- Gonzalez
Red Sox must-read: Fenway magic is in the air again
4. Atlanta Braves
Doolittle's World Series odds: 14.2%
How they got here: They got here, largely, because their GM, Alex Anthopoulos, refused to quit on this season. The Braves were up 3-1 on the Dodgers in last year's NLCS and looked even better heading into 2021. But they lost Ronald Acuna Jr. to a torn ACL and Mike Soroka to a re-torn Achilles. The Braves were a below-.500 team heading into the All-Star break, but the NL East had proven to be underwhelming, so Anthopoulos engineered trades for four outfielders -- Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario -- and the Braves surged shortly thereafter. They went 36-19 after the start of August, ran away with the division, then won three close games over the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS.
Their biggest strength: Their rotation trio of Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Ian Anderson is about as good as one can ask for at this time of year. Fried had a 1.74 ERA after the All-Star break, then pitched six scoreless innings against the Brewers in NLDS Game 2. Morton has established himself as one of the sport's most successful postseason pitchers, with a 2.53 ERA in his last 57 innings. And Anderson has been even more impressive, allowing only two runs over the course of five starts.
Their biggest weakness: The Braves don't generate much offense outside of Freddie Freeman and Austin Riley, which might not be all that surprising considering they're without Acuna and Marcell Ozuna, the latter of whom is on administrative leave since being arrested on assault charges after allegedly assaulting his wife. The Braves' seven other contributors -- their three other starting infielders and their four new outfielders -- combined for a .241/.305/.451 slash line this season. None of them reached an .800 OPS.
What they need to do to reach the World Series: The Braves' rotation trio is elite. Their bullpen is highly capable. Their defense has significantly improved. They just need a little more firepower, demonstrated further by their combined 12 runs in four NLDS games. Duvall, Rosario and Soler provided a major boost for this offense down the stretch, posting a combined .843 OPS after the start of August. But Soler could miss the NLCS after testing positive for COVID-19, so Duvall and Rosario -- and Pederson, the former Dodger -- will really need to step up. -- Gonzalez
Braves must-read: How the Braves rebuilt their outfield -- and saved their season (ESPN+)
Schoenfield's storylines to watch
Boston's pitching versus Houston's contact approach
Astros batters went in with a clear game plan in their ALDS against the White Sox: Put the ball in play, hit it up the middle, take some walks. That made a lot of sense against a White Sox power pitching staff that led the majors in strikeout rate. The Astros did strike out 16 times in Game 3, but they scored 31 runs in four games even though they hit just four home runs. It seemed an endless parade of base hits up the middle.
That's what Houston does so well. The Astros had the lowest strikeout rate in the regular season, even after removing pitcher hitting. This may surprise you, however, given the Red Sox pitching staff has been criticized throughout the season, and even right now Alex Cora continues to juggle roles and use starters in relief: Boston ranked fifth in the majors in strikeout rate during the regular season (after removing pitcher hitting) and had the fourth-highest fastball velocity. This, too, is a power staff.
A few keys to watch here:
-- Nathan Eovaldi. He averages 96.8 mph with his fastball and throws his four-seamer 43% of the time. But what has taken him to the next level is he pitches with a five-pitch arsenal, using all of his pitchers (four-seamer, curveball, slider, splitter and cutter) at least 12% of the time. He's really become the ace of the staff and the Astros will certainly remember him from the 2018 ALCS, when he won Game 3 with six innings of two-run baseball and then picked up a hold in Game 5 when he recorded four big outs.
-- Chris Sale. He gave up five runs in his one-inning start against the Rays in the ALDS. He averaged 93.6 mph his fastball in that one inning, same as during the regular season. That's down from pre-Tommy John surgery, so it appears that bad start was more an issue of location and command. Still, all those right-handed batters in the Houston lineup will present another tough matchup for Sale, who will start Game 1 with Eovaldi in Game 2.
-- Nick Pivetta. He was throwing gas during his four-inning relief stint in the 13-inning against the Rays. Will Cora just keep him in the bullpen or use him in dual role? Given that Cora was reluctant to use Adam Ottavino or Matt Barnes, it may make sense to just keep Pivetta in relief and go with Eovaldi, Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Tanner Houck as starters.
-- Astros hitters versus Red Sox fastballs. Houston hit .285/.370/.473 against fastballs, with Jake Meyers (.369, 1.017), Michael Brantley (.363, .991 OPS), Jose Altuve (.303, .939 OPS) and Kyle Tucker (.309, .937 OPS) doing the most damage.
Braves hitting versus Dodgers pitching
Yes, the bullpen has been an issue much of the season, but with Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa, there's a good chance the Atlanta pitching staff will hold its own. Can the Braves score enough runs though? Last year's lineup, with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna, had a little more firepower and 48.2% of its runs came via the home run. This year's lineup is still good and similarly relied on the home run (48.2% of its runs came via the home run once again), but last year's team just homered a little more often.
Also similar to last year: A key player is missing heading into the NLCS. Adam Duvall was injured last year, which forced rookie Cristian Pache into the lineup (he hit .182 in the series). This year, Jorge Soler is out after testing positive for COVID, so the Braves will once again have juggle their outfield. Soler had been a solid presence in the leadoff spot, coming pretty close to replacing Acuna's production, hitting .269/.358/.524 with 14 home runs in 55 games in the regular season (Acuna had hit .283/.394/.596 with 24 home runs in 82 games). No, not quite as good nor as dynamic in the field or on the bases, but that's a big bat to lose.
Some keys here:
Freddie Freeman versus Dodgers relievers: As he proved against Josh Hader in the NLDS, Freeman can certainly mash lefties. Still, he hit .317 with a .949 OPS against righties and .257 with a .760 OPS against lefties. Look for Dave Roberts to get that platoon advantage against Freeman if possible. Or maybe not. Switch-hitter Ozzie Albies hits third behind Freeman and he's much better against southpaws: .940 OPS versus .749 against righties, which follows his career norms. Then right-handed Austin Riley follows Albies, although Riley had a big reverse split (.941 OPS versus righties, .752 versus lefties). It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers navigate this part of the lineup in the middle innings.
Joctober: Joc Pederson has the pearl necklace and the dyed hair and he loves hitting in the postseason, with a career line of .278/.352/.538, including two pinch-hit home runs in the Brewers series. With Soler out, Pederson may now be in the starting lineup when a right-hander starts. You know he would love to inflict some damage against his old teammates.
Will they chase? The Braves are a high-slug, mediocre-OBP team. They ranked 17th in the majors in chase rate (excluding pitchers) and sixth in highest swing-and-miss rate. So they're so-so at controlling the strike zone and well below average in making contact. (Compare to the Dodgers: Los Angeles had the lowest chase rate in the majors.) Albies and Duvall were the worst chasers, both over 33%; Soler was the most disciplined hitter at 19.5% (Freeman was at 25%). It kind of feels like Albies and Duvall may be the key to the Atlanta offense: If they're more "all" instead of "nothing," they'll score some runs.
Five is the new seven
Look, stop wishing for complete games from starting pitchers. It's not going to happen; the last one in the postseason was by Justin Verlander in the 2017 ALCS. Heck, even seven-inning starts are a rarity -- there have been just two so far, out of 38 starts. Only two starters -- Max Scherzer and Lance McCullers Jr. -- topped 100 pitches and McCullers left his second start of the ALDS with forearm tightness. Relievers of starters pitching in relief have pitched 52% of postseason innings so far.
Needless to say, bullpen depth is more important than ever. The days of Andy Pettitte handing the ball off to Mariano Rivera for a two-inning save are long gone. Here is a key reliever for each team, especially one who might be used for more than three outs:
Garrett Whitlock, Red Sox: We mentioned Nick Pivetta, but the rookie Whitlock has become Cora's late-inning reliever of choice (along with the always shaky Hansel Robles). A former minor league starter, Whitlock averaged 1.6 innings per outing in the regular season and pitched at least two innings 19 times. He pitched two perfect innings to get the win in Game 4 against the Rays. Worth noting: Righties hit .199 with a .522 OPS against him while lefties hit .293 with an .823 OPS, so the inevitable showdowns against Tucker, Brantley and Yordan Alvarez will be vital.
Zack Greinke, Astros: Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia will probably start the first two games and it's possible Greinke ends up starting depending on McCullers' health. Or Jake Odorizzi becomes the fourth starter after Jose Urquidy with Greinke staying in the pen. The Astros carried just one lefty reliever against the White Sox (Brooks Raley), so Greinke could be the long man or used to face the top of the Boston order with Kyle Schwarber and Rafael Devers until Dusty Baker can get to his late-game relievers Kendall Graveman and Ryan Pressly.
Tyler Matzek, Braves: He was a one-inning guy in the regular season (69 appearances, 63 innings) and pitched 4.1 innings in four outings against the Brewers. Still, he went more than one inning in three of his seven appearances last postseason, including one of two innings, so he's capable of getting four to six outs. After scuffling in the first half, he has been dominant, getting scored upon in just three of his 38 appearances. He's the Braves' best reliever right now, so Brian Snitker should try to get as many outs as possible out of him.
Blake Treinen, Dodgers: Kenley Jansen is the closer, and while he used to be a guy you could trust for more than three outs, it's been several years since that was key. That role now belongs to setup man Treinen. He went two innings twice last postseason and got five outs in the wild-card game and four in Game 4 against the Giants.
Watch the center fielders
Given that infield shifts can help cover for a middle infielder with subpar range and that the running game is mostly a footnote in today's baseball, it often feels like center field is now the most important defensive position. We can debate that statement, but perhaps it's not a coincidence that the past six World Series champions have all featured good defenders in center field:
2020 Dodgers: Cody Bellinger (+5 defensive runs saved in just 38 games)
2019 Nationals: Victor Robles (+23 DRS)
2018 Red Sox: Jackie Bradley Jr. (+1 DRS)
2017 Astros: George Springer (+6 DRS)
2016 Cubs: Dexter Fowler (+0 DRS)
2015 Royals: Lorenzo Cain (+16 DRS)
Fowler was the weakest of the group, although he had his best defensive season in 2016 (and the Cubs were off the charts everywhere else).
Moving to 2021, there are some interesting situations to watch in center field -- not just on defense, but at the plate. Consider the four teams:
Red Sox: Enrique Hernandez. The star of Boston's division series win over Tampa Bay with a postseason record eight hits over two games plus the series-winning sacrifice fly, Hernandez is coming off his best all-around season after signing as a free agent. He was signed with the idea of playing second base, but ended up starting 81 games in center field and is now there on an everyday basis. By all accounts, he has played superbly in center (+14 DRS, 85th percentile in Statcast's outs above average). He's been a good postseason hitter throughout his career (.248/.341/.497) and is now hitting first or second. If he's getting on base in front of Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, good things are going to happen for the Red Sox.
Astros: Jake Meyers/Chas McCormick. Myles Straw -- a fast, very good defender, had been Houston's regular center fielder until he was surprisingly traded to Cleveland, so the Astros are using two rookies in a time share. Maybe the Astros aren't losing much on defense with either player. The sample sizes are small, but both have positive defensive metrics despite their lack of experience on the major league level, especially McCormick. Both hit right-handed so there isn't a platoon here. Meyers started three of the four games in the ALDS, but left Game 4 with a shoulder injury, so McCormick may get the bulk of the playing time.
Braves: Adam Duvall/Guillermo Heredia. In September, Duvall, Heredia and Joc Pederson all started in center field. Against the Brewers, Duvall started the first three games and then Heredia started Game 4 when Jorge Soler tested positive for COVID (he's unlikely to be on the NLCS roster). The Braves are a better defensive team with Heredia in center and Duvall in a corner, but if they want to get Pederson's bat in the lineup, especially against right-handers, that probably means Duvall in center. Duvall may actually be fine out there; he's Gold Glove-caliber in a corner, even though he rarely hear about his defense. Maybe Duvall's bat is the bigger key: Hey, he actually led the National League in RBIs, although it came with a .228 average and .281 OBP. Remember as well, that he got and missed last year's NLCS against the Dodgers. He can be pitched to with his approach, but he can also run into something.
Dodgers: Cody Bellinger/Chris Taylor/Gavin Lux. All three of these guys started in the NLDS against the Giants. Bellinger is the best of the three on defense, although Taylor seems to make all the plays he has to make. Lux has very little experience out there. Bellinger is also the team's best defensive first baseman and with Max Muncy out, he also started games there. Of course, his season-long struggles at the plate have also been well-documented. Dave Roberts will continue to play various matchups, so look for continued mixing-and-matching between center field and first base. Bellinger has had a couple big at-bats in the playoffs so far, including the game-winning hit in the Game 5 classic against the Giants, but the former MVP hit .165 in the regular season and his career postseason numbers are meager: .197/.271/.367. He'll play somewhere for his glove, but the Dodgers also need some hits off his bat.