It's as if Carlos Correa is building a personal audition tape during these playoffs, showing the full landscape of his talents. There is Correa thumping fastballs aggressively, easily, like he's smashing a sluggish fly with a rolled-up magazine. There is Correa deftly fielding a grounder and confidently starting a double play, over and over. There is Correa, setting his feet and waiting a beat to show off his arm and zoom a throw to first. There is Correa going to the mound to settle a teammate, checking the "leadership" box. There is Correa ignoring pitches off the edges of the strike zone, apparent plate discipline in a month when some players lose their control.
The timing for Correa could not be better, because as the last surviving teams advance through the last two rounds of the postseason, evaluators with other teams are currently in meetings talking about possible acquisition targets -- and the position drawing the most attention is shortstop, given the remarkable class of free agents from that spot about to become available.
The contracts paid out to the quintet of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javier Baez and Correa may approach $1 billion, with the aggressiveness of bidders likely being shaped to some degree by how quickly Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association agree to the next collective bargaining agreement. (Francisco Lindor would've been a part of this group of free agents, but he signed with the Mets for $341 million last spring.)
In polling conducted in recent days, 11 evaluators ranked these five elite shortstops No. 1 through No. 5 -- including Semien, who switched to second base this year when he joined the Blue Jays after playing shortstop for Oakland for years. If he moves on from Toronto after one year, the wide presumption is he may return to shortstop. The results of the evaluator voting were applied in a simple system of points -- five points when ranked first among the five shortstops, four points for a second-place ranking, etc. -- and you'll see the results below.
Six evaluators ranked Corey Seager as the best shortstop, Correa received four first-place votes, and another evaluator has Semien at No. 1, in the belief that Semien represents the safest investment in the group partly because of his history of staying healthy.
As the evaluators talked through their votes, they presented some observations and speculation about the offseason bidding and movement, which likely won't reach full velocity until the next collective bargaining agreement between the players and owners is signed. Here's some of what they foresee:
• After a year of limiting their spending, the expectation is that the Yankees will land a shortstop, and that will likely be either Seager or Correa -- perhaps with the intention of eventually shifting that player to another spot. New York's top prospect, shortstop Anthony Volpe, is expected to graduate to the big leagues sometime in the next two seasons. There is a lot of sentiment that Seager will need to move to another spot sooner rather than later over the course of a long-term deal.
• The Tigers, who have minimal payroll commitments beyond the last two years of Miguel Cabrera's contract, will land one of the five elite shortstops -- perhaps Correa, who played for Detroit's A.J. Hinch in Hinch's years as manager of the Astros.
• The Rangers are expected to be aggressive, with a high focus on building a strong organizational culture. The decisions of the free agents will largely come down to dollars, but rival evaluators are keenly aware that Seager has a strong relationship with Texas manager Chris Woodward, and note that Story grew up in the Dallas/Arlington area. There is speculation among rival evaluators that the Rangers could double-dip among the elite shortstops, signing two and shifting one to another position.
• The Mariners could be a sneaky presence in the free-agent market this winter. Seattle has enormous payroll flexibility, given that it has only $60 million in future payroll obligations. (For context: the Padres have about $750 million in guaranteed contracts on the books.)
• The Phillies are viewed as an interesting wild card, given the team's obvious need for a shortstop -- and a growing connection with agent Scott Boras. For years, a lot of Boras' clients landed with the Nationals, like Max Scherzer. But Boras client Bryce Harper signed with Philadelphia, and so did Jake Arrieta. Now Harper's former hitting coach Kevin Long -- also represented by Boras -- has moved from Washington to Philadelphia, in spite of the fact that Long has not always seen eye-to-eye with Phillies manager Joe Girardi. Another Boras client is Seager.
• Anybody can see the Angels need a shortstop, but they have a major budget issue looming, given the high salaries of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon and the big dollars Los Angeles will inevitably pay to Shohei Ohtani. The front office might have to focus on pitching in allocating the remaining dollars. "It's going to be really hard for them to spend big on a shortstop," said one evaluator. "Just about impossible."
• Like the Phillies, the Cubs are seen as a wild card in the shortstop market, and some Chicago staffers have been cultivating information about the elite shortstops.
Because there appears to be more demand than supply, it should be a lucrative market for these five players, in spite of the concerns that hang over all of them. "You might have 13 or 14 teams bidding on shortstops this winter," said one evaluator.
1. Corey Seager (50 points)
Age at start of 2022 season: 27
wRC+: 147 (9th among 188 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances)
Outs Above Average: minus-6 (tied for 27th among shortstops)
What gives him an edge: He is the lone left-handed hitter in this group and is generally regarded as the best offensive player of the five.
The biggest concern: He's had a long list of injuries in his career, and the majority of the evaluators believe Seager is destined to be moved to another position sooner rather than later because of what they see as a diminished range at short.
What evaluators say: "He's perfect for the Yankees, in what they need right now. Left-handed hitter, big-market experience, a great hit tool." ... "I have the same concerns about him that I do about Correa, about the games he's missed. But with [him], it's a bunch of different injuries, and not one major problem." ... "He's going to need an almost near-immediate move to third base."
Possible landing spots: Yankees, Rangers, Mariners, or yes, the Dodgers -- although when the Dodgers traded for Trea Turner, they prepared a sturdy safety net in case Seager departs.
2. Carlos Correa (45 points)
Age at start of 2022 season: 27
wRC+: 134 (29th)
Outs Above Average: 12 (6th)
What gives him an edge: The talent he is demonstrating this fall has evaluators gushing, seemingly moving them well past any conversation about Correa's link to the Astros' cheating scandal. In fact, Correa's handling of that chapter in his career is increasingly seen as a selling point for him because he has answered any doubts about his toughness, constantly performing well under a rain of boos.
The biggest concern: Like Seager, Correa has missed a lot of games in his career, and given how large he is relative to other shortstops and his history of lower back issues, some evaluators fret about his durability. Teams want a look at his medical files to see what kind of daily treatment is required for him to stay on the field.
What evaluators say: "You can see him becoming a leader -- he wants to be a leader," said one AL evaluator. "You can't say that with all players." ... "That guy oozes talent." ... "There's still more upside to him -- you could see him getting better offensively." ... "He's the complete package, but as big as he is, you figure he's going to have to move to third eventually."
Possible landing spots: Tigers, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Yankees. The big X factor in this, of course, is whether the Yankees would consider signing Correa given the animus of their fan base to Houston players linked to the sign-stealing scandal, or whether that will be a disqualifier.
3. Marcus Semien (32 points)
Age at start of 2022 season: 31
wRC+: 131 (35th)
Outs Above Average: 7 at second base in 2021 (6th best at the position)
What gives him an edge: Evaluators have a deep and abiding respect for his personality and leadership, and for his ability to stay on the field. Semien has missed a total of 10 games in the past four seasons (including the 60-game COVID season of 2020), and in 2021, played every game, bashing a career-high 45 homers and scoring 115 runs.
The biggest concern: While he has a ton of experience at shortstop, there is a perception that he is a much better second baseman, reinforced by how well he played there for Toronto. One way or another, there is a belief among the evaluators polled that Semien, even if he begins at shortstop, will ultimately play second base for most of the time he plays under the long-term deal he'll sign this winter.
What evaluators say: Because of his age, one evaluator said, he will require fewer years in his contract -- and between that reality and his A-plus reputation as a person, he is "the safest investment. I would put my head on the pillow every night knowing that the money I spent to sign him is going to be worth it." ... "I know his power numbers jumped [in 2021], but I wouldn't expect that's going to continue. He's not really a home run hitter." ... "I don't buy into the power." ... "This guy is a winning player." ... "I'm really impressed by his growth as a player." ... "He's going to have a positive impact on teammates."
Possible landing spots: Blue Jays, Mariners, Rangers, Tigers, Giants. There are two distinct narratives developing about what Semien really wants in his free agency: Some of the evaluators report they hear he'd prefer to play closer to where he grew up, in the Bay Area -- and others say they hear he loved playing in Toronto. The uncertainty about that should work well for his agent.
4. Trevor Story (23 points)
Age at start of 2022 season: 29
WRC+: 100 (123rd)
Outs Above Average: minus-6 (tied with Seager at 27th)
What gives him an edge: He might be the best athlete in this group, bearing the fewest questions about whether he'll be able to continue playing shortstop, and when at his best, when he's been healthy, an evaluator noted, "he might have been one of the 10 best players in baseball." From 2017 to '19, Story averaged 32 homers, 74 extra-base hits and 19 steals a year.
The biggest concern: Every evaluator -- all of them -- noted how Story's throwing became an issue after he hurt his elbow in May, and some teams have already started a deep dive into the question of what happened. According to one Statcast metric dug out by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, Story's throwing capacity ranked among the top third of infielders through May 27, the day his elbow was injured. His high-end velocity dropped markedly after that date, and in mid-September, the metric reflects a strengthening in his throws, as if whatever ailed him was improving. You can bet that any interested teams will want more information on his offseason throwing as they assess risk and shape their offers to him. His throwing problem chased at least two teams away from pursuing him at the trade deadline.
What evaluators say: "Like with [Nolan] Arenado, I have questions about what kind of a hitter he'll be outside of Coors Field." ... "There's a chunk of swing-and-miss with him, more than some of the other guys on your list." ... "He's an explosive athlete, a strong desire to play, a great work ethic. I'd knock down my throwing grade on him by one notch, one-and-a-half, but I believe in the character. I think he would have a real positive effect on your clubhouse."
Possible landing spots: Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Yankees.
5. Javier Baez (15 points)
Age at start of 2022 season: 29
wRC+: 116 (65th)
Outs Above Average: 0 (17th)
What gives him an edge: There will be a lot of days in the summer in which he will dominate the stage, with monster homers, with brilliance and daring running around the bases, his signature no-look tags on defense. When at his best, Baez is enormously fun to watch, wildly entertaining. And, as one staffer who knows him well says, "He is completely fearless." The perception within the Cubs' organization of his role in the thumbs-down controversy with the Mets was that Baez was not bothered by the boos, but that he was sticking up for his friend and teammate, Lindor, who seemed unnerved by the negative feedback.
The biggest concern: In an industry that increasingly values control and predictability, Baez is among the least predictable players in the game, with the third-highest strikeout rate and a wide range in his results. Baez racked up 61 strikeouts in his last 43 games with the Cubs, with a .234/.287/.448 slash line, and then, in his last 36 games with the Mets, he batted .328/.401/.557, demonstrating more patience than at just about any other time in his career.
What evaluators say: More than half of the respondents started their rankings of these five players by indicating that in their eyes, Baez is last among the five. "He swings and misses way too much for me." ... "He's obviously an electric player, but the whole thing he did in New York [with the thumbs-down gestures] shows a lack of maturity. That bugged me. When you're buying into a free agent at that price, you need to be able to buy into the whole package, and I just couldn't with him." ... "A great guy, but a lot of the stuff he does suggests bad work habits -- all of the swing and miss, the deep slumps -- and bad fundamentals ... and as he gets older and begins to regress [physically], that's going to be an issue." ... "You'd spend a lot of money to get him, and what's the best place in a lineup for his skill set? The 6-hole? That's hard to reconcile."
Possible landing spots: Mets, Cubs.