In life, "E" sometimes is the symbol for effort. In the MLB standings, an "E" stands for something you don't want, that you don't brag about and in which you get no solace: elimination. When the 2021 regular season ended on Sunday, 20 of the 30 teams across the majors donned that "E" on their standings line, and they've headed home to watch the postseason with the rest of us.
When the World Series is over, questions about the expiring collective bargaining agreement will loom over teams, players, fans and reporters alike. They will loom over any of the fun baseball stuff that we usually love to track over the hot stove season. This year's hot stove might heat up like normal, or it may be slow to reach a serviceable temperature, or it may end up on the fritz. We just don't know.
Eventually, we hope, all of that will get settled and there will be a 2022 season, and teams will have to prepare for it. For the clubs that missed the playoffs, those preparations will begin this week, if they haven't already. At the center of each team's scheme will be a plan, a list of objectives, and atop of all those lists will be an item No. 1 -- the most important question that will chart the offseason course for that team.
For the teams sporting the dreaded "E," here's a glimpse at how those top-line questions might read.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Should we tear this thing down to the studs?
Given that the Diamondbacks' preseason forecast was middling at best, it's quite a thing that no team fell further off the forecast pace than Arizona. Over the past couple of years, the Diamondbacks have hung around the middle, with lead exec Mike Hazen choosing to straddle the line between now and the future. Given this season's total collapse, can Arizona continue to follow that path, or is a youth movement the best way back to contention?
Baltimore Orioles: When do we start trying?
With Chris Davis' retirement, the Orioles don't have a single remaining player on the roster with a guaranteed contract for next season, per Cot's Contracts. That's some serious flexibility for an organization that typically has payroll levels in the top half of the majors when it is contending. But after another season with more than 100 losses, it's not like the Orioles are ready to start adding finishing pieces. Baltimore set a franchise mark with 115 losses in 2018 and, three years later, it isn't faring much better. When do we start getting some idea of what the next decent Orioles team is going to look like?
Chicago Cubs: What's the turnaround time for this version of our rebuild?
The answer to this question ought to be directly related to an organization's status on the revenue hierarchy. That is, the Cubs wanted to turn the page on their championship core. Fine. But the Cubs aren't a team that should skirt by on payrolls ranking in the bottom third, as they likely will next season unless some money is spent over the winter. The problem: Is there enough talent to justify even targeted free-agent spending? The Cubs' organizational record ranked in the bottom third this season, as did their mark just for minor league affiliates. They rank in the bottom third in consensus in-season prospect ranking updates, and in forecast performance from the players on hand in the majors. The organization picked a clear direction with its midseason teardown. This winter will offer a glimpse on how long the Cubs see themselves taking to build back up.
Cincinnati Reds: What is the right mix of position players to complement the pitching?
While Great American Ballpark is not as extreme as Coors Field when it comes to skewing results, the Reds face the same, if smaller-scale, challenge as the Rockies do when it comes to evaluating what they have and what they need. This season, Reds hitters ranked safely in the top 10 in raw measures like runs and OPS, but rate between middling to bad in contextualized metrics, depending on where you look. The pitchers don't look great by box score stats but are much better once the ballpark is factored in, possibly even elite. The bottom line is mediocrity: After six seasons of 86 or more losses, Cincinnati has eked out a couple of winning seasons. That is not why the Reds went into a prolonged rebuild, and to get from the middle to the top, they are going to have to figure out where they need to improve. When you play in an extreme run environment, sometimes that's easier said than done. It starts with figuring out just how good their hitters really are.
Cleveland Indians: Should we trade Jose Ramirez?
Cleveland is a frustrating franchise. In many ways, it's very well run and the organization's ability to consistently produce impact pitchers -- 2021's injury-induced depth shortage aside -- is particularly admirable. Yet Cleveland entered the season with clear roster holes that could have been shored up by targeted payroll increases and, given the club's bottom-basement salary outlook, we're not talking about trading for Mike Trout here. But the soon-to-be Guardians stick to their plan, which often feels like a variation of Branch Rickey's old "trade 'em a year too early" dictum. Ramirez has been playing at a superstar level for a half-decade, but he'll be reaching his age-29 season in 2022. With two team-friendly club options on his contract remaining after this season, his trade value is strong but will only decrease going forward. Dealing Ramirez is the kind of move the Indians would have made ... but will the Guardians?
Colorado Rockies: Who is going to set the course for the organization?
As dire as the forecasts for the Rockies were in 2021, and as bad as the start of the season turned out to be, and as tumultuous as those early weeks were given the departure of lead exec Jeff Bridich, one could argue Colorado overachieved. And if you buy that premise, it's hard not to feel like manager Bud Black had a lot to do with that, taking a team in baseball's most extreme hitting environment and fashioning a functional speed, pitching and defense outfit out of it, because that's what he had to work with. But in 2021, the most crucial position in a baseball operations department is the guy who is accountable for moves, payroll, scouting, development, analytics -- basically the whole shebang. That guy was Bridich, and perhaps going forward it will be Bill Schmidt, who held down the gig on an interim basis after Bridich's departure. Either way, this is a decision to be made at the ownership level, and it's a doozy: Does this franchise need a new voice and a fresh vision?
Detroit Tigers: Which star shortstop should we woo in free agency?
Tigers GM Al Avila has already hinted at the plan to pursue impact free agents in an effort to flip from rebuilding mode to contention. This year's club was better on the pitching side than the hitting side, and with so many high-ceiling young pitchers in hand, you figure the foundation for that sector of the roster is strong. The position array has several red flags, but also can look forward to the ascension of elite hitting prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. Neither plays shortstop, which was a yawning chasm on the 2021 Detroit roster. Big coincidence: The 2021-22 free agent class is rich in star-level shortstops. In his top tier of free agents, ESPN's Jeff Passan lists Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Marcus Semien and Trevor Story. We can't say the Tigers will end up with any of those players, but you had better believe they are going to try.
Kansas City Royals: What is the ideal alignment of our future infield?
Some of the questions on this list have a dire tone. This one does not. Happily for the Royals, there may not be a wrong answer. That doesn't mean the problem isn't a complex one. This issue was pushed to the forefront by the great minor league season put together by top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. in his first full pro campaign. He is a shortstop. Meanwhile, the highest-ceiling position player on the club may well be Adalberto Mondesi, also a shortstop, though he tends to spend more time as an injured shortstop than an active one. And Nicky Lopez put it all together at the plate in 2021 and has a shot at winning a Gold Glove -- at shortstop. And let's not forget Whit Merrifield, not a shortstop, but an upper-echelon second baseman. He can play other positions of course, but his value is undermined at the offense-first end of the position spectrum as he does not have elite power. Really, it comes down to this: Who is the best defender at the position? The secondary question is just as important: Will Mondesi ever enjoy an injury-free campaign?
Los Angeles Angels: Can we buy a pennant?
Some of the Angels' stars have been making some media-filtered grumbles about the need to for their club to bolster its roster. This is absolutely true. In particular, the Angels' repeated fumbling at putting together anything like a cohesive, first-division rotation have got to end. The intersection of these factors seems to land in the zone of Artie Moreno opening up his pocketbook, as Angels owners have tended to do over the decades in pursuit of titles. It's rarely worked. But, really, do the Halos have a choice? Given lowly prospect rankings and subpar aggregate minor league success in 2021, it may be the only way. But if it doesn't work and they spend handsomely and futilely, it'll look like many a bloated, aged Angels roster from seasons past.
Miami Marlins: Will our pitching be contention-ready in 2022?
There's no doubting the depth and the collective talent of the young pitching on the Marlins, both at the big league level and in the upper minors. Some of that has already turned into MLB-caliber production. But, other than Sandy Alcantara, the 2021 season offered little in the way of pitchers who combined quality with quantity. The position side is murkier than that, with some under-25 talents already on the roster, like Jazz Chisholm and emergent masher Jesus Sanchez, but not enough of them. What GM Kim Ng and her staff have to determine is how far the pitching could take them next season if bolstered by a stronger position group. Given an almost complete lack of salary obligation, Miami could pursue one or two impact free agents. The Marlins took shortstop Khalil Watson in the draft, but that shouldn't preclude interest in any of the top pending free-agent shortstops. Could such a splurge signify that, finally, the Marlins are ready to turn the corner -- and turn the page on perennial rebuilding?
Minnesota Twins: What happened?
Coming off two straight division titles, the Twins made some targeted signings of free agents last winter, adding Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Alex Colome and Hansel Robles. None of them really worked out, and that was only a partial reason Minnesota completed a stunning tumble from first to last in baseball's softest division. Whatever the usual factors that arise on an underachieving team might be, they were present on the Twins. Injuries. Disappointing performance. You name it. The end result was not just the poor record, but a spate of trades that sent away core veterans like Jose Berrios and Nelson Cruz. There's still significant talent on hand in the majors, and more on the way from the minors. But rotation stalwart Kenta Maeda may not be available at all in 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. While a full rebuild seems inappropriate, it also feels like another aggressive offseason might not be well timed for the Twins, at least until they come up with some kind of answer to our initial question: What exactly happened in 2021?
New York Mets: How should we evaluate our hitters going forward?
One of two things has to be true. Either the Mets' offense was one of the most disappointing units in the major leagues or the expectations for New York's hitters were falsely inflated. The answer is almost certainly more the former than the latter, especially if you start to catalog the shortfalls in performance. That list begins with Francisco Lindor, but he's joined by Michael Conforto, Dom Smith, Jeff McNeil and James McCann. Was this a collective fluke, subject to the happy sort of regression? Or was this all process related? Solving that puzzle will be a new lead baseball executive, and putting that together will go a long way toward determining how that person is viewed a year from now.
Oakland Athletics: How uncertain is the future, and is the end really near?
Talk about a franchise in flux. Both members of the Athletics' brain trust -- Billy Beane and Bob Melvin -- have both been floated as solutions for the Mets. Those are just rumors, but there is the fact that Oakland missed the playoffs after a short window of contending which, in this century, has usually been reason enough to expect another rebuild. Also, most of the contributing veterans on the roster are either hitting free agency or are in the latter part of their arbitration years. Also, one other small thing: The A's don't know where their long-term home is going to be. Oakland's to-do list is as long as anyone's, but of course it all begins with figuring out who will be setting the direction, whether it's Beane or a successor.
Philadelphia Phillies: How can we get more efficient?
The Phillies have already started rearranging their front office under GM Dave Dombrowski. Farm director. Assistant general manager. Perhaps a slight lean away from analytics. All of this is a prelude to some much-needed work on an ill-fitting roster. The payroll is high, as you'd expect with big-money contracts on the books like those of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Zack Wheeler. The rotation looks to be in decent shape, with Wheeler joined by Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, the emergent Ranger Suarez and some back-end younger options like Hans Crouse and Bailey Falter for depth. But the bullpen has been a major problem for multiple seasons. So, too, has been the team defense. The areas to target for improvement are glaringly obvious. Philadelphia missed the playoffs this year with a top-five payroll, and that's pretty much the baseball definition of inefficiency. Dombrowski's history suggests he knows how to spend it, but the challenge now is to spend wisely on a roster that complements a core that has some high-caliber strong points.
Pittsburgh Pirates: How do we prepare for when the first wave hits?
The Pirates just completed their third full season of a complete rebuild, a project that included a turnover of leadership. While the big league club continues to flounder in the standings and at the gate, there are signs of better days coming down the pike. First, the minor league system is rated in the top five by most outlets. And that rating is backed up by a collective winning percentage of .586 by Pittsburgh affiliates, the fifth-best mark of any organization. Until some of those players follow Ke'Bryan Hayes' path to Pittsburgh, the transaction log is likely to remain sparse. A lot of the players who have the Pirates' system ranked so high are still in the lower minors, so it may be some time before we see them at PNC Park. However, finding undervalued impact players, and perfecting processes, are worthy tasks to undertake while the Pirates bide their time. They are also hallmarks of sustainably good organizations.
San Diego Padres: Why is our total less than the sum of our parts?
The Padres have been shuffling the organizational deck over the month or so. Not the top-level jobs, like the ones held by lead exec A.J. Preller or manager Jayce Tingler, but plenty of other crucial roles have changed hands. That's what happens when you de-evolve from one of the sport's most-hyped teams -- the future of baseball! -- to one of the most problematic. It doesn't help that the Padres, before they had actually won anything, were already one of the more expensive clubs in baseball. Still, we know injuries played a role in the disappointment, especially on the pitching side. We know this is an organization that is bursting with both high-level talent and depth. The project is to figure out why it didn't come together this season and to figure out how to make it happen in 2022. The problem is especially urgent because -- given the rise of the Giants and the fact that the Dodgers aren't going anywhere -- the NL West is going to be a rough road for the foreseeable future.
Seattle Mariners: Just what is our actual talent level?
The 2021 season was a glorious affair for the fans in Seattle, despite the last-day disappointment of coming up just short of snapping the Mariners' two-decade postseason drought. Still, the excitement the stretch run generated in Seattle just tells you how much fans there are ready for the playoffs, World Series and all sorts of October activities that baseball fans in the Pacific Northwest have so seldom been able to experience. To get them what they want and deserve, it's crucial that Jerry DiPoto and his staff take an accurate accounting of what they have, what they can expect going forward from it, and what's coming down the pike. The last one of those considerations is easy: Seattle has one of baseball's best minor league systems, perhaps the very best, and as the likes of Julio Rodriguez and Emerson Hancock begin to graduate to the majors, the question now centers around what kind of club they will be joining. The M's won 90 games for the first time since 2003, but we know the caveats that come with that. We know they were actually outscored on the season. We know about the extreme performance in one-run and extra-inning games. We know that it's a transitional time, with so many young players on the way, while stalwarts like Kyle Seager, whose last-game tears illustrated this transition so well, might move on. This season felt like a move to the precipice of contention. But how much of that was reality, and how much of it was a mirage?
Texas Rangers: What does getting better look like?
During their short life as the Washington Senators, the franchise lost 100 or more games four times in 11 years. In Texas, it only happened in the first two seasons, in 1972 and 1973. In the latter season, the Rangers dropped 105 games despite being led by one Hall of Fame manager, Whitey Herzog, who was fired, and then by another manager, Billy Martin, who arguably should be in the Hall. Then came 2021, when 48 years later, the Rangers again hit the century loss mark. First-year GM Chris Young has declared in recent interviews that this is the nadir for the rebuild, and that with a wide-open payroll, Texas will be aggressive over the winter. With a solid minor league system that ranked fourth among all systems in winning percentage this season, it's time for the Rangers to start their move up the standings. How aggressive should those first steps be?
Toronto Blue Jays: What are the finishing pieces?
They didn't get into the playoffs, but this Blue Jays team is awfully good and so much of the core of this club is only at the beginning of the adventure. A big question that must be answered is how aggressively the Jays want to pursue free agent Marcus Semien, whose 45 homers established a new mark for primary second basemen. As good as Semien was, it's fair to wonder how repeatable that performance is. And it's fair to ask how necessary it is for an attack that was so potent up and down the lineup in 2021 and figures to just keep getting better. The Semien question aside, it's apparent that Toronto needs to build depth and dynamism in its pitching staff if it wants to continue to go toe to toe with the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees. There's no reason the Blue Jays can't do it. It is on the Toronto front office to identify the right players to maximize one of baseball's most exciting high-ceiling rosters.
Washington Nationals: When should we lock up Juan Soto?
The answer, obviously, is as soon as possible. Less certain is how quickly the Nationals can return to contention, but long term, the stability of franchise, and perhaps its identity, hinges on making Soto a very wealthy young man. Few players are sure things, and every mega-contract carries with it a large element of risk, but Soto is a generational talent, fiercely driven to self-improvement. If anyone is worth giving $400 million, $450 million or $500 million in a sports context, it's Soto. So do it now, lock in that element of production and payroll certainty, and build from there. The situation is complicated by the identity of Soto's agent -- one Scott Boras -- but that's all the more reason to secure him ASAP. And if they can't, that suggests a clear course of action as well. Today, we're trying more to pose questions than answer them, but in Washington's case, the response is too obvious to ignore.