The Tampa Bay Rays won't represent the Junior Circuit in the World Series this year: The team's defense of its 2020 American League championship is over. In the 2021 MLB playoffs, the Rays couldn't get past their division series showdown against the Boston Red Sox, an AL East rival they had managed to beat by eight games in the division standings during the regular season. No excuses losing to a wild-card team, although a particularly controversial call in Game 3 certainly didn't help Tampa Bay's cause before a tough Game 4 loss ended the series.
The Rays are one of the best-run franchises in the game -- on the field, at least -- regularly winning with a low payroll and a sometimes surprising or even confounding combination of under-the-radar players who combine to be more than the sum of their parts. But now, with some young budding stars such as Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena added to the mix, Tampa Bay could prove to be an even more formidable squad in the years to come. David Schoenfield takes a look at where the Rays stand and answers three key questions for the club moving forward to 2022 and beyond.
Tampa Bay Rays
Notable free agents: Nelson Cruz, Collin McHugh, Michael Wacha, David Robertson, Chris Archer, Chaz Roe, Mike Zunino ($7 million club option)
The Rays signed McHugh for $1.8 million after he sat out 2020, but he likely priced his way out of Tampa after posting a 1.55 ERA over 64 innings. After mashing 33 home runs, the Rays will certainly pick up Zunino's option.
Trade candidates: Tyler Glasnow, Kevin Kiermaier
Glasnow is arbitration-eligible with two years of team control remaining, but he is likely to miss most or all of 2022 after Tommy John surgery. That sets him as a trade candidate for a team looking to him for 2023. Kiermaier will make $12 million with a $13 million club option for 2023 (or a $2.5 million buyout). With Josh Lowe ready to take over in center after an outstanding season at Triple-A and Manuel Margot and Brett Phillips also capable defenders, the Rays would love to find a taker for Kiermaier's salary. He is still an elite defender and should have interest from somebody, and maybe the Rays would throw in a low-level prospect or two.
Extension candidates: Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Josh Lowe
The Rays extended Kiermaier with a $53.5 million deal back in 2017, and Brandon Lowe's $24 million extension (plus 2025 and 2026 club options) now looks like a bargain. They will look to strike similar deals with their young pitchers or one of the outfielders. Wander Franco? Don't count on that one happening.
1. The Rays used 41 pitchers in 2021, and their bullpen led the majors in innings pitched. Can that strategy really work again?
Hey, three of those pitchers were position-player cameos, so it was really only 38 pitchers. After losing Charlie Morton in free agency and trading Blake Snell, the Rays knew they would have to count on their bullpen, especially after Glasnow went down after 14 starts. But it's certainly a lot to ask that many innings and get so many positive results from that many different relievers year over year.
The good news is that they should be willing to push their young starters in the rotation a little harder than they did in 2021: McClanahan, Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Luis Patino, Ryan Yarbrough and Josh Fleming should all be capable of going well past 100 innings next season. This past season, the Rays also brought in some veterans in Wacha, Archer and Rich Hill to help chew up some innings, and they could go that route again for more depth. Still, Yarbrough led the team with 155 innings; the Rays had just one starter (Morton) top 141 innings in 2019; and only Snell and Yarbrough reached 100 innings in 2018. The Rays will still depend heavily on manager Kevin Cash and pitching coach Kyle Snyder working their magic with the revolving door of relievers.
2. Do they need a big bat?
Perhaps. The Rays traded for Cruz at the deadline, although he hit just .226/.283/.442 for them. While they ended up ranking second in the AL with 857 runs -- more than the Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays -- there was some timely hitting built into those numbers, as the Rays ranked sixth in OBP and fourth in slugging percentage. Their catchers hit 39 home runs, drove in 97 runs and scored 102 while posting the second-best OPS in the majors. You have to expect some regression there.
There also isn't an obvious hole to fill. If Kiermaier is traded, there is still plenty of outfield depth with Arozarena, Margot, Phillips and Josh Lowe, plus Vidal Brujan, all of which could allow Meadows to DH since he is the weakest defender of the group. Maybe first base, where the Rays' .726 OPS ranked 24th in the majors.
3. What do they need to get to the finish line?
After losing in the ALDS in 2019 to the Houston Astros, reaching the World Series in 2020 and leading the AL with 100 wins in 2021 before bowing out, the Rays are obviously close. How do they get over the top? Three things stand out. Call them sub-questions to the questions:
A. The offense remains extremely Three True Outcomes. They tied for the second-highest strikeout rate in the AL in 2021, and we saw what was really a mediocre Red Sox staff rack up the K's in the ALDS, including 20 in the 13-inning Game 3. Can the Rays improve contact without sacrificing the power?
B. Do they have a legit No. 1 in house? They thought it was going to be Glasnow. But remember: He wasn't good in the 2020 postseason (6.28 ERA, including 10 runs in 9⅓ innings in the World Series). McClanahan certainly has that kind of upside based on what we saw his rookie season. Having a starter who can rack up six or seven innings in postseason games would be a huge lift.
C. Maybe they just need a superstar. And maybe that will be Franco, as soon as 2022 -- even if he will be just 21 years old.