Start spreading the bad news -- despite a roaring second-half comeback to make the playoffs as a wild card on the last game of the season, the New York Yankees will go a 12th straight season without a trip to the World Series.
Despite making the playoffs for the fifth straight year, it's hard to view this season as anything but a disappointment for the Bronx Bombers. David Schoenfield takes a look at where the Yankees stand and answers three key questions for the club moving forward to 2022 and beyond.
New York Yankees
Notable free agents: Anthony Rizzo, Corey Kluber, Lucas Luetge, Andrew Heaney
Brett Gardner has a weird contract. He has a $2.3 million player option, which turns into either a $7.15 club option or $1.15 million buyout if he declines. After a poor first half, he played much better in the second half (.250/.344/.418), but if he wants to play one more season with the Yankees, he'll probably have to exercise his player option.
Trade candidates: Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, Joey Gallo
They'd be looking to unload Torres; with two bad seasons at the plate, patience may be running out -- although they keep showing it with Sanchez. Gallo's performance with the Yankees was frustrating enough (.160/.303/.404, 88 strikeouts in 58 games) that they may consider a trade, but they do need a left-handed bat in the lineup.
Extension candidates: Aaron Judge is a free agent after 2022. He'll be entering his age-30 season and has been injury-prone -- but he's also coming off a season in which he played 148 games and hit .287 with 39 home runs. Good luck figuring what kind of extension to offer.
1. Who will be the shortstop?
Late in the season, the Yankees finally admitted what everyone else had recognized at least a year ago: Torres is not a shortstop. They moved him to second base, all but screaming that they would be digging into the talented free-agent group of shortstops hitting the market: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez and Trevor Story, plus Marcus Semien if you still want to view him as a shortstop. The betting favorite is Correa. He had a terrific season on defense via various metrics -- 96th percentile in Statcast's Outs Above Average and plus-20 Defensive Runs Saved (best among shortstops). There is some risk given his own injury history, but he's young, can hit and is a huge upgrade on defense.
2. Do they move on from Sanchez and/or Torres?
Once viewed as the centerpiece of the Yankees' future, Sanchez and Torres continue to struggle to reach their potential. Torres' power has disappeared after he hit 38 home runs as a 22-year-old in 2019. His hard-hit rate was in the 26th percentile, so there isn't consistent hard contact here that suggests big-time power. You hate to give up on somebody so young, so maybe the hope is he improves at the plate with a full-time move to second base. That means you have to decide what to do with DJ LeMahieu, who had his own disappointing season in 2021, dropping a whopping 300 points in OPS. The way he hit in 2021 is not up to the standards of a first baseman or third baseman.
Sanchez continues to be ... Gary Sanchez. Some home runs, a low average, shaky defense. The Yankees had the third-most wild pitches in the majors. He ranked near the bottom in Statcast's pitching-framing metrics (55th out of 59 catchers). Kyle Higashioka ranked 13th, but he hit .181 with a .246 OBP, so he's hardly the answer either. Johnny Bench isn't exactly available in free agency. It may be another year of Sanchez by default.
3. Who plays center field?
Aaron Hicks missed most of 2019 after Tommy John surgery and most of 2021 after a wrist injury. He's signed through 2025, but he'll be 32 and keeps getting injured. That's the age when most players move off center field anyway, but the Yankees have Judge in right and Gallo in left, with Giancarlo Stanton eating up the DH at-bats.
Starling Marte is the one option in free agency. He's also older (33), although coming off a terrific season. He's more of a solid-average defender, but he also would provide some much-needed speed on the basepaths. Otherwise, the Yankees would be looking to make a trade. The Rays would love to dump Kevin Kiermaier's salary, and he's an elite defender, but those intra-division trades are tricky. Could they pry Byron Buxton away from the Twins?
We didn't address pitching here -- the Yankees ranked fifth in the AL in runs allowed, although better defense will help. Getting Luis Severino back should provide a lift to the rotation and Nestor Cortes Jr. came out of nowhere the final two months to look like a back-end option (he finished with a 2.90 ERA and 3.78 FIP over 93 innings, so maybe he's even better than back end). Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon, Severino, Cortes and Domingo German is a solid starting six, with Michael King, Luis Gil and Deivi Garcia (a 6.85 ERA at Triple-A) in the hole. If the Yankees increase payroll like expected, they might be in the starting pitching market in free agency or trade as well (you have to think they would love to pair Robbie Ray with Cole, his early wild card exit aside).