As much as fans of all teams in the playoff chase expect their clubs to make a big splash at the trade deadline, that isn't really the way things work. Most of the big trades in recent seasons come from strong teams looking to get stronger -- think Yu Darvish going to the Dodgers and Justin Verlander (in August) to the Astros in 2017, Manny Machado going to the Dodgers and Nathan Eovaldi to the Red Sox in 2018, or Zack Greinke to the Astros in 2019.
If we do get some big stars dealt this year before the July 30 deadline, I would expect the major players to be the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, New York Mets and the conglomeration of teams battling in the NL West. We know the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees will try to add some minor pieces and the Tampa Bay Rays always seem to have something in the works. The more difficult decisions, however, belong to some of the other teams that are currently outside the playoff picture but still in the hunt. How are the Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners looking at things right now? Let's look at those five clubs.
Cincinnati Reds
Short history: After not making the playoffs since 2013 -- or even finishing above .500 -- the Reds dipped into free agency prior to the 2020 season for the first time in over a decade and signed Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Wade Miley (on top of trading for Trevor Bauer in 2019) to make a postseason push. They did squeeze into the expanded playoffs with a 31-29 record, but promptly scored zero runs in 22 innings in two losses to the Braves. After pushing all their chips forward in 2020, the Reds had a conservative offseason, losing Bauer in free agency and not making any big moves, instead hoping the offense would bounce from 2020's embarrassing .212 team batting average.
What's happened in 2021: They were five games under .500 after a 17-3 loss to the Phillies on June 1, but then won 11 of 13 to claw back into things, with Castellanos and Jesse Winker having All-Star seasons. They promptly lost four in a row in San Diego. They won three of four in Milwaukee right before the All-Star break, however, including handing Josh Hader losses in back-to-back games, to finish the first half four games behind the Brewers. They then lost their first four after the break, including three to the Brewers.
Biggest problem: The bullpen. At least the Reds have an easily identifiable issue. They're 29th in the majors in bullpen ERA, although a little better in win probability added at 19th. Still, they've shuffled through three closers, and the current guy, Heath Hembree, has allowed eight home runs in 32⅓ innings.
Thinking big: Craig Kimbrel has been lights out for the Cubs and even has a $16 million club option for 2022, which would help alleviate the closer problem next season (assuming Kimbrel doesn't fall back into his bad ways). That's a pretty steep price for the Reds, but they could give the Cubs a better prospect if the Cubs include cash to pay down the rest of his 2021 salary.
Thinking small: Add a generic veteran reliever or two.
What they should do: Those three losses to the Brewers were crushing, turning that four-game deficit back to seven, and their odds of winning the NL Central, according to FanGraphs, dipping from 14.6% to 5.9% after the sweep. They also have just one series left against Milwaukee, so there are few head-to-head games to make up ground. The bullpen is still a mess. Michael Lorenzen returned from the injured list on Saturday, pitched one inning, moved to the outfield, hurt his hamstring, and he is back on the IL. Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone are out until after the trade deadline. The Brewers appear slump-proof with Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta in the rotation. There are now rumors the Reds would consider trading Luis Castillo, who has a 1.76 ERA over his past nine starts. He's under team control through 2023.
Really, to catch the Brewers at this point will require more than adding a closer. They could trade for Kimbrel and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story and still be long shots, while hurting their farm system in the process. If the Milwaukee series had gone differently, the inclination to add would make a lot more sense. For an organization that needs to build from within -- don't expect owner Bob Castellini to dip back into free agency anytime soon -- trading prospects to improve your division odds from 5% to 7% or whatever probably isn't the route to go. Find some bullpen help, but don't but pay a steep price to do it, and definitely don't trade Castillo, as the Reds need him for 2022.
Atlanta Braves
Short history: Coming off three straight NL East titles and a tough loss in the NLCS in 2020 when they blew a 3-1 series lead, the Braves entered the season as favorites or co-favorites alongside the Mets to win another division title. They re-signed Marcell Ozuna as a free agent and signed Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly to bolster the rotation.
What's happened in 2021: They lost their first four games and haven't been over .500, getting there six times and then losing each time. There have been some injury issues -- Travis d'Arnaud has played just 23 games, Ozuna broke two fingers (and then was arrested on domestic violence charges), Mike Soroka re-tore his Achilles and will miss the entire season, and then came Ronald Acuna Jr.'s devastating season-ending torn ACL. There has also been some lack of production on offense after the Braves had a powerhouse lineup in 2020. Ozuna and d'Arnaud weren't hitting, Cristian Pache was expected to man center field and instead hit .111 to earn a trip back to the minors, Dansby Swanson is down from last year and reigning MVP Freddie Freeman got off to a slow start.
Biggest problem: The bullpen. Entering Tuesday, the Atlanta bullpen was 11-22 with a 4.64 ERA -- only the pitiful Diamondbacks had more bullpen losses. They're 2-7 in extra-inning games, so you know Brian Snitker is no fan of the ghost runner rule. After Sunday's 7-5 loss to the Rays, when the pen allowed four runs in the seventh, Snitker was at a loss for words on how to get the bullpen turned around. "I don't know. I don't know, honestly. It's just guys getting outs, honestly. I don't know. Guys we're using have been guys who've helped us to be where we are. I don't know. Honestly, I really don't know."
Honestly, that sounds like a manager who wants a couple of new relievers.
Acuna's injury obviously created a hole in the outfield and Alex Anthopoulos moved quickly to acquire Joc Pederson from the Cubs and catcher Stephen Vogt from the Diamondbacks. Still, without Acuna and Ozuna, an outfield of Pederson, Guillermo Heredia and former Brewers shortstop Orlando Arcia in left hardly feels like one that will lead you to a division title. On top of that, Ian Anderson is now out for at least the next week with right shoulder inflammation.
Thinking big: Obviously, improve the bullpen. Kimbrel could be the answer here, although Pittsburgh's Richard Rodriguez is more payroll-friendly with a $1.7 million salary. He'll also cost more than Kimbrel in prospect capital since he's under team control for two more seasons. Ian Kennedy is a possibility, as is Seattle's Kendall Graveman.
Winning the division is one thing, and that could happen with the current roster and an 85-win team. Building a team that can win the World Series is something else, and the Braves probably need another outfield bat to do that. Miami's Starling Marte is a perfect fit here and Kris Bryant could work, too.
Thinking small: They already made two deals, and that might be it.
What they should do: Look, the division is obviously winnable, and the Mets suddenly look more vulnerable with Jacob deGrom and Francisco Lindor both landing on the IL in recent days. I get that the Braves might justifiably view this as "just not their year" and if they fall another two or three games back by July 30 might actually end up trading players away -- Morton would be one of the most sought-after starting pitchers given his track record in the postseason, and they could also deal Pederson and Smyly. I'd play it down the middle and try to add a reliever like Rodriguez who can help you after 2021. If you're two or three games back, go all-in and see if you can get Marte. There is talent here to make a run in October, with a potential playoff rotation of Morton, Max Fried, a healthy Anderson and a healthy Huascar Ynoa, who was pitching well before breaking his hand punching a dugout bench in May.
Washington Nationals
Short history: The 2019 champs missed the playoffs in 2020 and entered 2021 banking on a healthy Stephen Strasburg, a better Victor Robles and a monster season from Juan Soto. They rolled the dice on power bats Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell, two sluggers who struggled in 2020.
What's happened in 2021: They stumbled early, clawed back to 40-38 by the end of June -- Schwarber hit 16 home runs in 18 games -- and were just two games out, but then went 2-11 to start July. Strasburg has missed most of the season, Robles hasn't hit, Soto is only finally looking like the Soto of 2020, and Patrick Corbin and Jon Lester are 9-12 with a combined ERA over 5.00.
Biggest problem: Outside of Max Scherzer, the rotation has been terrible. Joe Ross has the second-best ERA at 4.02 and he's out right now with elbow discomfort. The bullpen, as always, is thin. The team also needs a third baseman because of Starlin Castro being placed on administrative leave due to domestic violence allegations.
Thinking big: In this case, that might not be trading for a player, but instead trading away Scherzer, who would be the most impactful player to change teams if the Nationals do deal him. The complicating issue: Scherzer has 10-and-5 rights (10 years in the majors, five with his current team), so he can veto any trade.
"When players are traded, and you refer to contract amendments, it does not necessarily mean an extension," Scott Boras, Scherzer's agent, told The Washington Post in late June. "It could be any amendment that gives him a reason to exercise his rights. That's up to the player at the time. Max and I have never discussed the subject."
The Nationals could also look to trade Schwarber, but he has a mutual option for 2022 that both sides seem willing to pick up. If the Nationals do want to add a pitcher, a candidate is Jose Berrios of the Twins. He's under team control through 2022 and recently indicated that he prefers to hit free agency rather than sign an extension with Minnesota -- which perhaps could hasten his exit from the disappointing Twins. With a thin farm system, however, that might mean giving up top prospect Cade Cavalli, who has 106 strikeouts in 64⅓ innings at Double-A. For their third-base needs, Kris Bryant could be a good fit.
Thinking small: Stand pat, hope Strasburg does return in a couple weeks (as well as Schwarber, who is out with a hamstring injury) and hope to clean up in head-to-head play against division rivals. The Nationals still have 11 games against the Mets and Phillies and nine versus the Braves.
What they should do: I'd ride it out. Soto looks like he's primed for a two-month bender and if Strasburg comes back, you never say never. Berrios is probably a long shot, and as willing as Mike Rizzo has been to trade prospects, I'm not sure he wants to trade Cavalli when you still have to jump three teams to win the division. Zach Davies of the Cubs might work here as a less expensive rental.
Toronto Blue Jays
Short history: After three straight losing seasons, the Blue Jays made the playoffs in 2020 thanks to the expanded postseason. With youngsters Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette ready to hit their prime, the Jays sort of went all-in for 2021. They gave big money to George Springer and signed Marcus Semien to a one-year deal, but they really only went halfway on the pitching staff, re-signing Robbie Ray (coming off a bad year), trading for Ross Stripling and signing Tyler Chatwood. Still, the belief was the Blue Jays could be strong contenders in the AL East.
What's happened in 2021: Guerrero has exceeded expectations with a Triple Crown chase, Semien has had a huge season and the rotation has been pretty good (Ray is 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA). The bullpen gets a lot of blame, but it's middle of the pack in ERA in the majors (13th) and win probability added (15th). Not great, not horrible. They've underperformed their expected record by six wins (they're 6-10 in one-run games, but have more blowout wins than losses). A return to Toronto, after playing in Dunedin and Buffalo so far, could be an energizing boost.
Biggest problem: Everyone points to the bullpen and that's worth upgrading, but the offense does have some holes: their catchers are 23rd in the majors in OPS, their DHs 11th out of 15 AL teams, and Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. both sport sub-.300 OBPs. Adding another starter feels paramount.
Thinking big: OK, you're not going to upgrade catcher. Kyle Gibson just got shelled, but he's available, was great in the first half, has a reasonable salary and is signed through 2022. Nelson Cruz would be a nice fit at DH, although another lefty bat would be nice (Cavan Biggio is the only regular lefty in the lineup).
Thinking small: They already traded for relievers Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards, and since their chances of winning the division are small -- 8.8% entering Tuesday, via FanGraphs -- that may be as all-in as owner Rogers Communications desires to go.
What they should do: Yes, climbing past both the Rays and Red Sox will be difficult, but that still leaves the wild card in play. The Blue Jays do have a strong farm system to deal from and they can add around the edges without dealing any of their top prospects. Is adding around the edges enough? Note that the Blue Jays have a better run differential than the Red Sox or Rays, so I think it's reasonable to suggest they are as good as those two clubs, but just haven't had the ball bounce their way.
I really like the idea of trading for Cruz. He's owed about $4.5 million the rest of the season and the market for him won't be super robust since several of the AL contenders are already locked in at DH. Finally: Max Scherzer is a fit here. Even if you end up as a wild card, at least the Blue Jays could hand the ball to him and like their chances.
Seattle Mariners
Short history: The Mariners have the longest playoff drought of any team in the four major North American sports leagues, having last made the postseason in 2001. They've been rebuilding for a couple of years now and developed a strong farm system with several top-100 prospects entering the season, although it has yet to make a big impact at the major league level. Entering the season, the Mariners were clear that they viewed 2021 as the final stage of rebuilding before viewing themselves as strong contenders in 2022.
What's happened in 2021: The offense has been dreadful (a .219/.295/.380 line entering Tuesday), James Paxton went down for the season after one inning, Marco Gonzales is 1-5 with a 5.88 ERA, and Jarred Kelenic had to be sent back down, but the Mariners are somehow in the wild-card race, just three games behind Oakland entering Tuesday. An unsung bullpen has helped them to a 10-1 record in extra-inning games, which is why they are over .500 despite getting outscored by 51 runs so far.
Biggest problem: Offense and rotation depth.
Thinking big: "We'll do the right thing for the team, and we will always weigh the present with the future," general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters last week. "The present means something to us because the team is playing incredibly well, and if we have the ability to help the team in the short term, we'll do that." That doesn't sound like a GM intent on thinking big, but instead sticking to his plan -- which means 2022 and beyond takes precedent. Still, adding Nelson Cruz and Jonathan Schoop would add some much-needed right-handed sock.
Thinking small: The Mariners could even go in the opposite direction -- they could trade closer Kendall Graveman (a free agent after the season) and right fielder Mitch Haniger (under control for another season).
What they should do: Despite the long drought, the Mariners have been close before in recent years. They were just three games out of first place on July 30 in 2018 and in a wild card position before stumbling the final two months. They missed the wild card by three games in 2016 and one game in 2014. Look, are they as good as the Astros or A's? No. But they've put themselves in a position to be players and if the A's slump a little and the Blue Jays or Yankees don't catch fire, you never know.
Let's put it this way: I definitely do not trade Haniger. With Kelenic's struggles so far, Kyle Lewis' knee injury and Julio Rodriguez probably not ready until midseason next year, they need Haniger for next season. I keep Graveman as well. You can't sell out your players by trading away one of your most important players. They do have a lot of games left against the A's (13) and Astros (12), including the upcoming seven-game homestand against those two clubs. See where you are after those two series, which takes you up to July 28. If you're still close, go get Cruz and Schoop, hope Kelenic figures it out, and convince the baseball gods they owe you one.