Every year, Major League Baseball has a slightly different flavor. The ingredients are always the same -- a ball, a bat, a glove, hitting, pitching, catching, etc. The portions in the recipe are ever-changing, but, weather aside, baseball still tastes more or less the same on the last day of the season as it did on Opening Day.
That's how it usually goes, anyway, but not in 2021. Thanks to baseball's unprecedented in-season initiative to crack down on foreign substances being applied to the ball, the flavor of this season has been radically altered. Someone has dumped a mysterious new ingredient into the mix and we know the updated concoction tastes different, but we just can't put our finger on exactly how.
Some hard facts:
MLB Aggregate Spin Rate by Month
April: 2,272 rpm
May: 2,282 rpm
June: 2,223 rpm
July: 2,197 rpm
The new guidelines went into effect in the middle of June, but I present these figures by month to make a point. Since we've tracked spin rate, whatever figures that blend together to create that metric don't tend to fluctuate much within a season. Last year, the aggregate spin rate varied by 11 rpm from the highest monthly figure to the lowest. In 2019, the spread from highest month to lowest month was just 12 rpm. So that 85 rpm difference between May and what we had in July before the All-Star break is immense.
This dramatic on-the-fly change to the way baseball is played during a season is both stark and unclear. It's stark in that we can see how dramatically spin rates have fallen. It's unclear because the impact of that change in terms of on-field results remains difficult to suss out from other factors that affect the flow of season results, the biggest of which is the weather.
Still, two assumptions seem pretty safe. One, the drop in overall spin has had and will have an impact of baseball's level of offense. And, two, that impact will not be uniformly divided among the 30 teams.
With that in mind, let's look at some early winners and losers from the spinning wheel of baseball's declining spin rates.
To determine how teams have been impacted, I've created the Crackdown Index, taking into account both change in spin rates among pitching staffs and how hitters perform against high-spin pitches (2,400 rpm) vs. other types of pitches. Though the official start of MLB's crackdown was June 20, our before-and-after cutoff date is June 16, when the daily aggregate spin rate became noticeably changed. To get the final number, pitching indexes are weighed three times more heavily than the hitter index. The average Crackdown Index is 100 -- anything more than that, your favorite team is being helped by the changes. Lower than 100, not so much -- though ranking poorly in the Crackdown Index is not, for example, going to suggest that the Dodgers' elite pitching staff is now going to struggle.
Teams helped by the crackdown
Crackdown Index: 110.9
You can draw your own conclusions about the Royals, but Kansas City's team spin rate is virtually unchanged from before the crackdown. Kansas City has struggled as a staff, particularly its starters, but the problems don't figure to get worse because of the change in sticky-stuff enforcement. The Royals rank 10th in four-seamer usage and third in sliders. Most of the Royals' primary pitchers have climbed in the spin rate pecking order since the change. Brad Keller, who is having a down season, climbed from the 57th percentile before the crackdown to the 79th percentile since it happened, for example.
Crackdown Index: 110.0
It's fair to be skeptical about the Rockies ranking this high by this methodology. As a staff that leads the majors in both four-seamer and slider usage, it would seem like Colorado would be highly impacted by the change. However, the Rockies' aggregate spin rate through June 16 was 2,294 rpm; since then it's 2,289 rpm.
Only Chi Chi Gonzalez has seen a significant drop in spin, while several Rox, including All-Star starter German Marquez, have actually seen an uptick. Marquez's spin rate has been higher in June and July than it was in April and May. We don't know who was using what, of course, but it sure doesn't seem like the Rockies have been leaning into the sticky stuff.
Crackdown Index: 108.7
The Blue Jays have had a lot of upheaval with their pitching staff this season, but at least spin-inspired anxiety doesn't look like it'll be added to the mix. As a staff, the Jays have lost only around 21 rpm, which isn't nothing but is the lowest decrease in the American League East. Three core rotation hurlers -- Hyun Jin Ryu, Steven Matz and Robbie Ray -- have seen slight upticks in spin. Rookie Alek Manoah has seen a drop, but his "before" sample was small, so you don't want to read much into that. The Jays also rank 10th in hitter impact. Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Cavan Biggio all figure to benefit from seeing fewer high-spin offerings.
Crackdown Index: 107.9
The Giants' staff mixes its pitches pretty well, but it does rank 10th in changeup usage and first in splitters, the latter largely because of ace Kevin Gausman. Gausman's splitter has evolved into one of the game's nastiest pitches, as hitters have just a .142 WOBA against him on the pitch this season. Best thing: Gausman averages just 1,584 rpm on the splitter, as it's a pitch on which you don't want a high spin rate.
Gausman's overall spin rate has been on the rise, as he has started to throw his four-seamer more often as opposed to the splitter. And, in case you're wondering, his four-seam spin rate hasn't been impacted at all by the policy change. In other words, Giants fans have every reason to believe Gausman's magical season will continue.
Crackdown Index: 107.8
The Twins' pitching has been awful this season, and it's important to remember that just because this method sees Minnesota's hurlers being somewhat immune to the enforcement changes, these numbers are all relative. The Twins may benefit from the problems of their opponents, but this fact by itself will not make what has been a bad pitching staff a good pitching staff.
Jose Berrios' overall spin rate has dropped, but he has a full arsenal that should allow him to adapt. Over his past couple of outings, Berrios has leaned more on his sinker and changeup, while cutting back somewhat on his four-seam fastball, which didn't have elite spin even before the change. Thus, Berrios' overall production doesn't project to change much, at least not from the sticky-stuff issue.
Likewise, the repertoire of Minnesota's No. 2 starter, Kenta Maeda, is heavy on sliders and splitters, mixed with a four-seamer of average spin that hasn't changed much with the policy evolution. The Twins need Maeda to pitch better overall, but if he doesn't, it isn't going to be because of the sticky stuff.
6. (tie) Houston Astros
Crackdown Index: 106.4
Aspersions about the Astros' elite spin levels in recent years have been cast a few times in recent years. But given the makeup of Houston's current staff and the fact that the team's elite hitters have hit high-spin pitching just fine over the years, the Astros don't figure to be impacted much by the new enforcement. Sorry, Astro haters.
6. (tie) New York Yankees
Crackdown Index: 106.4
One caveat to apply to these estimates is that this methodology very likely applies too much power to sheer spin rate, as there is no way to predict how players and teams will react. Pitch selections and sequences may change, with hurlers increasingly favoring less spin-dependent pitches like sinkers, splitters and changeups. And teams may start to target pitchers with repertoires heavy on those pitch types.
Most importantly, pitchers might well figure out methods to recover some of the spin rate that they've lost, or to adjust to the new reality in other ways. An example: After struggling during a couple of starts following the enforcement change, Yankees ace Gerrit Cole shut out the elite offense of the Astros on July 10, posting a 91 game score that was the ninth-best outing of any starter this season.
The team that jumps out in this entire analysis is obviously the Yankees, since Cole's spin rate turned into a headline story during the weeks leading up to the break. And it's true: Cole's overall average spin before June 17 (2,514 rpm) ranked in the 86th percentile of all pitchers, including relievers. Beginning with that date, his spin rate (2,354 rpm) ranks in the 74th percentile. Still really good, but a clear drop in both the raw total and in the ranking.
Nevertheless, New York is partially saved by having a few pitchers whose spin rates have actually not moved much, or even gotten better, such as Domingo German and Michael King. Also, don't forget the index includes hitters, and New York has several batsmen who figure to benefit more than the average hitter from seeing fewer high-spin pitches. That group is led by Gio Urshela and Rougned Odor, both of whom have had poor numbers against high-spin pitching.
Other teams helped but not as much
San Diego Padres (105.1), Washington Nationals (104.9), Chicago White Sox (104.5), Miami Marlins (103.9), Philadelphia Phillies (101.5), Oakland Athletics (100.6), Atlanta Braves (100.4), Pittsburgh Pirates (100.3), Milwaukee Brewers (100.1)
The first-place White Sox rank fourth in four-seam usage, but they also lead the majors in changeup usage and that combination should continue to serve them well without the sticky stuff. Like most teams, Chicago has lost about 42 rpm in spin at the team level but has risen from 18th to 11th in the pecking order. And that's what this piece is all about: impact relative to everyone else.
One pitcher of interest is Lucas Giolito because, first, he's an interesting guy and, second, he had that recent kerfuffle with Minnesota's Josh Donaldson. Well, Giolito's spin is down markedly on his four-seamer. Overall, however, his spin rate hasn't changed much because he leans so heavily on his changeup.
Teams hurt by the crackdown
Crackdown Index: 81.2
The Dodgers' staff spin since June 17 is 203 rpm lower than it was before, the biggest drop in the majors. Trevor Bauer and Walker Buehler in particular have both seen significant drop-offs. Bauer's near-term prospects are up in the air for reasons that have nothing to do with this piece, but as for Buehler, it's hard to see the Dodgers fretting about the spin. And as with the Dodgers, our constant harping about how it's all relative is especially important. You see, L.A. led the majors in team spin rate up to June 16, with a massive 211 rpm edge over the second-place Yankees. Since the crackdown, the Dodgers remain first, though their edge over the Yankees has dwindled to 55 rpm.
Crackdown Index: 85.5
The Tigers dropped from 25th in team spin rate before the crackdown to 30th since things started to evolve. As a staff that's heavy on sinkers, sliders, changeups and splitters, Detroit relies on high-spin offerings fewer than most teams. Still, Detroit ranks 29th in four-seamer spin rate since the crackdown. Casey Mize has dropped into the seventh percentile in overall spin rate.
Crackdown Index: 91.9
The Reds have a handful of hurlers in key roles who have had triple-digit declines in bottom-line spin rate since the crackdown. Two of those are starters: Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle, though Gray has been injured and his after-crackdown sample is small.
On the bright side, the Reds get some of the negative pitching impact back on the hitting side of the ball. It's not just him, but All-Star Nick Castellanos has had one of the more striking differentials in performance against high-spin and lower-spin pitches over the course of the study, with a WOBA (.418) that is 153 points lower against high-spin offerings. Alas, that doesn't necessarily mean Castellanos will get a boost from seeing less spin, because this year's version of Castellanos is different than the hitter who compiled those metrics. This season has featured a more level swing that resulted in a career-best .331 average coming out of the All-Star break.
Crackdown Index: 92.1
The Orioles' before/after drop in spin (152 rpm) is enough to drop them from 14th to 26th in the majors. But, really, this is a rebuilding team and the consequences of this aren't going to keep anyone up at night. On a happier note, Baltimore scored well in the hitting part of the metric, with a No. 4 ranking in possible benefit from the decline in high-spin pitches.
Crackdown Index: 94.2
The Red Sox have two key hurlers who have dropped a significant number of rpms: Garrett Richards (317) and Adam Ottavino (210). The thing is, they both had a lot of spin to lose. Richards ranked in the 98th percentile in rate during the before period -- he's still in the 89th percentile, which is also where Ottavino resides. Still, the Red Sox team spin rate has dropped from 14th to 21st between the two periods of our study. It's probably not a big thing, but if Boston ends up in a close division race, marginal differences can have big consequences.
Crackdown Index: 94.4
Let's face it, you really just want to know about Jacob deGrom, whose Mets fall into this last grouping. Well, his pre-crackdown spin rate was 2,388 rpm. Since then, it's 2,440. OK, then. Part of that is because deGrom has been throwing his slider more frequently in recent outings than he had been, while relying a little less on his dominant four-seamer. But, really, it's probably because he's just Jacob deGrom -- at least when he's able to take the mound.
The Mets' poor performance by this metric is in part attributable to a large drop in spin from starter Marcus Stroman. Stroman's average spin has gone from 2,401 to 2,175 rpm, dropping him from the 72nd percentile into the bottom half of qualifying pitchers. That said, some of this is pitch selection, as Stroman has ramped up his usage of a splitter in recent outings.
Other teams hurt but not as much
St. Louis Cardinals (95.5), Cleveland Indians (96.3), Arizona Diamondbacks (97.0), Seattle Mariners (97.7), Chicago Cubs (97.8), Los Angeles Angels (98.6), Texas Rangers (98.6), Tampa Bay Rays (99.9)
The benchmark of the Rays' pitching staff in recent years has been versatility. It comes at you with different pitchers with complementary repertoires and from every arm angle that exists. Only one team throws fewer four-seamers than the Rays, a dynamic that is starker with Tyler Glasnow on the injured list. However, the Rays lead the majors in cutters and are fourth in sliders, and both pitch types carry higher average spin rates than four-seamers. For Rich Hill, you can add a high reliance on curves to the mix. None of this is to say that this issue is going to derail the elite Rays pitching staff, and knowing this franchise, they've probably already figured out a workaround. However, it seems likely there will be at least some mild negative impact on the Rays' staff.