In 1999, the St. Louis Cardinals in the 13th round drafted a slow junior college shortstop with, as one scout put it, a "heavy, bulky" body. Twenty-two years later, Albert Pujols is still playing in the major leagues, making him the player from the oldest draft still active. (Rich Hill also was drafted in 1999, although he didn't sign until drafted out of college in 2002.)
As much as scouts and teams will dream of landing a franchise player when the 2021 draft commences on July 11, star players are rare -- so rare, in fact, that for some organizations you have to go back more than a decade to find one they drafted.
With the 2021 draft just a couple of weeks away, I wanted to find the most recent star player each franchise has taken -- whether or not he became a star with that team. Original draft team is all we're considering (and we're focusing only on drafted players).
My definition of "star": Is this a player who could be the best player on a championship team? That's a little non-specific, more intuitive than anything, but I think it serves our purposes better than trying to define a hard criteria. In general, I would suggest this is a player who consistently earns at least a five WAR per season over a few seasons (eliminating the fluke star seasons).
In honor of Pujols, I will also include the best player each team has drafted since 1999. A designation of 1.3, for example, means the third pick in the first round. WAR totals from Baseball-Reference.
Below are three categories: the last star player selected, the best player over the past decades, and a next hope from recent drafts for all 30 teams.
Jump to a team:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN | NYY | OAK | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
NATIONAL LEAGUE
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL | LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
Arizona Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt
Drafted: 2009 (eighth round), reached majors in 2011
The Diamondbacks landed Goldschmidt out of Texas State, where he had set a school record with 36 home runs, and he's been the second-best player from that draft -- behind only Mike Trout. Arizona has made solid trades for bats (Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Carson Kelly) and found David Peralta as a minor league free agent, but the emphasis on first-round pitching left the system thin on high-end position players until recently. We could also include Trevor Bauer (drafted in 2011) here, who was great in 2018 and in 2020, but has a 3.80 career ERA that is a little short of consistent star status. It didn't help that the Diamondbacks traded him away after just four starts for them.
Best player drafted since 1999: Max Scherzer (2006, 1.11). Scherzer had a solid first full season in 2009, but then Arizona sent him to Detroit in a three-team trade that brought them Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson.
Next hope: Corbin Carroll. The 16th overall pick in 2019, the speedy center fielder excelled in his pro debut that summer and was off to a blistering start at high-A before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury while hitting a home run.
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman
Drafted: 2007 (second round), reached majors 2010
A two-way player in high school in California, Freeman wanted to hit and the Braves drafted him to do that despite a low-90s fastball that had some teams wanting him as a pitcher. He was also just 17 when drafted, rose quickly through the minors and reached the big leagues a few days before his 21s birthday. He's on his way to a potential Hall of Famer career, although he's a free agent after this season.
Best player drafted since 1999: Freeman. The Braves have actually done well in the second round, with Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar, Alex Wood and Nick Ahmed among their second-round picks.
Next hope: Ian Anderson is early in his big league career, but the Braves have a potential rotation anchor in first-round picks from 2016. Mike Soroka, taken the year before Anderson, is another possibility but the news that he tore his Achilles tendon again and will miss the remainder of the 2021 season makes his road back a long one.
Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado
Drafted: 2010 (1.3), reached majors 2012
Machado went third in the draft that the Nationals took Bryce Harper No. 1 and while Harper obviously worked out just fine, you can make a strong case that Machado has been a little better thanks to his terrific defense. Harper, Jameson Taillon and Machado were considered the clear top three players in the draft and the Orioles were happy enough to have Machado slide to them. It was the first time Baltimore took a shortstop in the first round since 1974.
Best player drafted since 1999: Machado. The Orioles have had just four winning seasons since 1999 (all between 2012 and 2016), so Machado hasn't had much competition for this honor. Adam Jones has the most WAR with the Orioles in that span, but he came in a trade with Seattle.
Next hope: Adley Rutschman. Now that the Rays have promoted Wander Franco, Rutschman takes over as the No. 1 prospect in the minors. The first overall pick in 2019, Rutschman is performing in Double-A exactly as scouts profiled him. He's a catcher who will hit for average and power with a high walk rate and excellent defense.
Boston Red Sox: Mookie Betts
Drafted: 2011 (fifth round), reached majors 2014
Maybe the first multisport athlete whose three sports were baseball, basketball and bowling, Betts wasn't included in Baseball America's top 200 draft prospects for 2011 but the Red Sox were high enough on him to give him an over-slot bonus of $750,000 as the 172nd pick to keep him from going to the University of Tennessee. After going homerless in his first full pro season in 2012, Betts still ranked behind somebody named Sean Coyle on the second-base prospect depth chart for the Red Sox before breaking out in 2013.
Best player drafted since 1999: Betts. Dustin Pedroia, a second-round pick in 2004, earned more career WAR with the Red Sox than Betts, but will fly past Pedroia in career value in a couple of years.
Next hope: First baseman Triston Casas is the top prospect in the minors, although with the fourth pick in the 2021 draft the Red Sox will have their highest pick since taking pitcher Mike Garman third overall in 1967.
Chicago Cubs: Kris Bryant
Drafted: 2013 (1.2), reached majors 2015
When the Astros took Mark Appel with the first pick in 2013, the Cubs eagerly jumped on Bryant, who had hit 31 home runs his junior season at the University of San Diego. He then bashed 43 home runs in the minors in 2014, won Rookie of the Year honors in 2015 and the MVP Award in 2016. Injuries have affected his consistency since then, but he's looking good again in 2021. Can he be the best player on a championship team? He was.
Best player drafted since 1999: Bryant or Josh Donaldson. Similar major league careers: Third basemen, good two-way players, MVP winners. Much different players coming out of college, as the Cubs drafted Donaldson as a catcher and it wasn't until the A's moved him to third base that his bat finally developed. Donaldson has more career WAR now, but Bryant has age in his favor.
Next hope: The combination of winning, trades, low picks and poor player development has left the Cubs with a weak farm system. Outfielder Brennen Davis, a second-round pick in 2018, grades well across the board and has reached Double-A.
Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson
Drafted: 2013 (1.17), reached majors 2016
The White Sox took a risk with Anderson in 2013, a toolsy player from a Mississippi junior college who had led his high school basketball team to a state title before deciding to focus on baseball. Anderson is a unique player since he never walks, but his level of play in 2019-2020 was extremely high (6.4 WAR over 172 games). He's a little below that in 2021 and can't quite carry a team, but he has turned into a championship-caliber shortstop.
Best player drafted since 1999: Chris Sale, 2010 (1.13). Sale reached the majors his draft year, spent a year in relief and then posted seven straight seasons in the top six of the Cy Young voting between the White Sox and Red Sox.
Next hope: Hey, maybe Carlos Rodon has reached a new level at the age 28 -- after the White Sox had non-tendered him in the offseason and then re-signed him to a one-year deal ... which makes him a free agent again after the season.
Cincinnati Reds: Justin Turner
Drafted: 2006 (seventh round), reached majors 2009
Turner had winding road to stardom after the Reds drafted him out Cal State Fullerton, traded from the Reds to Orioles (the Reds got Ramon Hernandez), waived by the Orioles, claimed by the Mets, released by the Mets, and then signing with the Dodgers in 2014. He famously tweaked his swing and from 2014 to 2019, he averaged 126 games and 4.5 WAR per season, hitting .302/.381/.506. More of a low-level star, but he had top-10 MVP finishes at his peak. Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier had some good years with the Reds, but they don't quite rise to the level of big star, nor does Yasmani Grandal, a first pick in 2010 who was traded to the Padres in the Mat Latos deal.
Best player drafted since 1999: Joey Votto, 2002 (second round). Votto had a tremendous pre-draft workout for the Reds in Cincinnati, launching home runs into the second deck at Cinergy Field, and they scooped up the Toronto native in the second round based on that power potential. To prove how hard it is to project players, however, a few picks earlier the Reds took a third baseman from Texas-San Antonio named Mark Schramek, and Baseball America called him the best pure hitter the Reds took in the draft. He hit .226 in the minors.
Next hope: Hunter Greene. He's throwing 100-plus again in the minors. If he does succeed in the majors, he'll break a long record of Reds' draft futility. They have had just six pitchers record at least 10 WAR with the team since 1999, none of whom were homegrown draft picks.
Cleveland Indians: Shane Bieber
Drafted: 2016 (fourth round), reached majors 2018. Despite leading UC Santa Barbara to its first College World Series, Bieber fell to the fourth round due to lack of an overpowering fastball. He added velocity as a pro without losing command and is now one of the best starters in the game. Worth noting: He struck out 109 batters in 134⅔ innings at UCSB his draft season. He has fanned 629 in 497 innings in the majors.
Best player drafted since 1999: Francisco Lindor, 2011 (1.8). The Mariners held the second pick in the 2011 draft and with the Pirates locked in on Gerrit Cole, the belief was the Mariners were certain to take Anthony Rendon out of Rice. Then they flew Lindor in for a pre-draft workout and he impressed all the important people, leading to speculation Seattle might change to Lindor at the last minute. So they took ... Danny Hultzen. Rendon fell to the Nationals at No. 6 and Lindor to Cleveland at No. 8.
Next hope: Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac look more like midrotation starters, although they fit the Bieber profile in overperforming their draft slot. So maybe shortstop Tyler Freeman, who is hitting over .300 in Double-A, and Cleveland can hope his power develops in the majors as with Lindor.
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story
Drafted: 2011 (1.45), reached majors 2016
A supplemental first-round pick acquired after losing Octavio Dotel in free agency (he had been acquired from the Dodgers for minor leaguer Anthony Jackson in September and pitched just eight games for the Rockies), so give credit to former GM Dan O'Dowd for the trade that eventually led to Story. In what has turned out be a pretty good draft, Story ranks fifth among the 60 first-rounders so far in career WAR.
Best player drafted since 1999: Nolan Arenado, 2009 (second round). After hitting .529 as a high school senior, the Rockies drafted Arenado for his bat and moved him from shortstop to third base. Early in his minor league career there was a belief he might have to move to first base, which doesn't add up given we're talking about one of the best defensive third basemen of all time with eight Gold Gloves his first eight seasons. No doubt he worked to improve, but that's still a heck of a leap. What could have been: Troy Tulowitzki.
Next hope: The Rockies have done better drafting hitters, so maybe that's a good sign for outfielder Zac Veen, the ninth overall pick in 2020, the top prospect in a thin system.
Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander
Drafted: 2004 (1.2), reached majors 2005
Have the Tigers really not drafted a star player since 2004? I think that's a fair assessment, which kind of explains why they've been in a playoff drought since 2014. The best player they drafted since Verlander is Rick Porcello, who won a Cy Young with the Red Sox in 2016 (controversially over Verlander, who actually received six more first-place votes) and has certainly had a very good career, although falls a little short of my standard. Any scouting director would be rightfully happy with landing a player of Porcello's caliber in the first round, however.
Best player drafted since 1999: Verlander. How did the Tigers land Verlander with the second pick? Simply: The Padres made one of the all-time draft blunders, going with local high school shortstop Matt Bush over Verlander, who was throwing 99 at Old Dominion with a knee-breaking curveball but had gone just 21-18 in his college career.
Next hope: Casey Mize struggled in his initial call-up in 2020 and then early this season, but has settled into a nice groove and showed why he was the No. 1 overall pick in 2018. Behind him in the minors are 2019 first-rounder Riley Greene and 2020 No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who should settle in as the Tigers' 2-3 or 3-4 hitters by 2023.
Houston Astros: Alex Bregman
Drafted: 2015 (1.2), reached majors 2016
The Astros drafted George Springer in 2011, Carlos Correa in 2012 then Bregman in 2015, and they joined Jose Altuve to form the core of one of the best offensive teams in recent decades. Any of the three would qualify here with Bregman getting most recent honors. Of note: He was a compensation pick for Houston's failure to sign Brady Aiken with the first overall choice in 2014.
Best player drafted since 1999: Bregman. There are five candidates here and in terms of career WAR -- it goes Ben Zobrist (who never played for the Astros), Springer, Correa, J.D. Martinez (a 20th-round pick who became a star after the Astros released him) and Bregman. Zobrist is retired with an impressive 44.3 WAR, Martinez and Springer are in their 30s, and Correa is a few months younger than Bregman. I'll go with Bregman over Correa, hedging on future production, but you could flip a coin between the two.
Next hope: Kyle Tucker. The Astros have done well on the international market (including Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier all having very good 2021 seasons), less so in the draft in recent years. Tucker was the team's second first-rounder after Bregman in 2015 and could make his first All-Star team this year. If he can boost that OBP, he has a chance to be an All-Star for the next decade.
Kansas City Royals: Alex Gordon
Drafted: 2005 (1.2), reached majors 2007
Royals fans might be quick to jump on the Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas bandwagon, pointing out the Royals won a World Series with those two leading the way. Except ... who really was the best player on the 2014-15 Royals? It wasn't Hosmer or Moustakas:
Lorenzo Cain: 11.4 WAR
Gordon: 8.7 WAR
Salvador Perez: 5.9 WAR
Eric Hosmer: 5.1 WAR
Moustakas: 4.2 WAR
Cain and Gordon were the best position players and the bullpen was obviously outstanding. Hosmer and Moustakas were nice complementary players, not stars. Gordon had a great four-year peak from 2011 to 2014, averaging 6.0 WAR per season.
Best player drafted since 1999: Zack Greinke, 2002 (1.6). He won a Cy Young for the Royals in 2009 and then brought in Cain and Alcides Escobar in a trade with the Brewers. Next stop ... well, he's a free agent after 2021. Next stop after that: Cooperstown.
Next hope: Bobby Witt Jr. It could be one of the young starting pitchers, but Witt is the choice here. The spring training hype might have been a little over the top, but he was a high pick and he's putting up good power numbers in Double-A at 21.
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout
Drafted: 2009 (1.25), reached majors 2011
Not bad for a kid committed to East Carolina before the Angels drafted him. Trout shot up draft boards his senior year as kids from the Northeast are often underexposed in high school. "He's the complete package," one scout told Baseball America. "He shows all five tools. He has plus makeup. And he has 70 speed." Still, some doubts, his Northeast pedigree and power potential allowed him to slide to the 25th pick -- taken with a pick acquired from the Yankees for losing Mark Teixeira in free agency.
Best player drafted since 1999: Trout. Honorable mention to Jered Weaver, a first-round pick in 2004 who was one of the best starters in the AL for several years.
Next hope: Jo Adell was one of the top prospects in the game entering 2020, but struggled mightily in 38 games with the Angels and hasn't alleviated fears about his swing-and-miss despite a big home run number for Triple-A Salt Lake.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler
Drafted: 2015 (1.24), reached majors 2017.
Despite not drafting in the top 20 since taking Corey Seager 18th overall in 2012, the Dodgers have drafted incredibly well, including Seager, Buehler, Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Will Smith and Dustin May. Buehler led Vanderbilt to the College World Series his draft season, but had pitched through a sore elbow, dropping him in the draft. Sure enough, he needed Tommy John surgery, but the Dodgers bet on the stuff and Buehler has rewarded them with an excellent start to his career and some big performances in the postseason (2.35 ERA in 11 starts).
Best player drafted since 1999: Clayton Kershaw, 2006 (1.7). The first high school player selected that year, although we can chuckle at a draft report from the Major League Scouting Bureau that said he had consistent above-average fastball velocity for a projectable future reliever. I guess the Dodgers thought he had a chance to start.
Next hope: Smith, May or Gavin Lux could all ascend, but here's my sleeper pick for the next great Dodgers starter: Ryan Pepiot, who was in the back end of the Dodgers' top-10 prospects entering the season but has dominated at Double-A in shorter stints. A third-round pick in 2019, if he can continue to pitch well as he gets stretched out to longer outings, he could be up some time in 2022.
Miami Marlins: Christian Yelich
Drafted: 2010 (1.23), reached majors 2013
A first baseman in high school, Yelich was a star on the showcase circuit with his sweet left-handed swing. He rose quickly through the minors and hit .290 in five seasons with the Marlins. Then his power really blossomed -- unfortunately for the Marlins, it came after he was traded to Milwaukee, an ill-advised deal that looks like it's not going to net the Marlins any significant value. RIP to Jose Fernandez, the team's first-round pick in 2011.
Best player drafted since 1999: Giancarlo Stanton, 2007 (second round). There are four candidates here, starting with Josh Beckett, the second pick in 1999 who was a World Series hero for the Marlins in 2003 and won 138 games in the majors. Then you have Adrian Gonzalez, the first pick in 2000, traded as a minor leaguer, plus Stanton and Yelich. Gonzalez has the most career WAR, but Stanton is about to pass him. Yelich is younger than Stanton, but Stanton has a 10-WAR lead and both have health questions. Yelich's 2018-19 peak was astounding, but let's see if he can get back to that level.
Next hope: Trevor Rogers is having an outstanding rookie season in the rotation and looks like a strong All-Star candidate. In the minors, you have the Marlins' recent first-round picks, JJ Bleday and Max Meyer.
Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff
Drafted: 2014 (11th round), reached majors 2017
Woodruff's hot start is confirmation, I believe, of what we've seen over the past two seasons, that Woodruff is ready to make the leap to stardom. He's 28, but that's less of an issue for a pitcher than a position player. I think he can have many seasons ahead of star-level pitching, making him the kind of ace who can lead a team to a World Series championship. He was a great find for the Brewers' scouting staff as he had a 6.75 ERA his draft season at Mississippi State, with 29 strikeouts and 25 walks in 37⅓ innings.
Best player drafted since 1999: Ryan Braun, 2005 (1.5). That loaded 2005 draft went Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement (oops), Ryan Zimmerman and then Braun to the Brewers. His first six seasons in the majors, Braun hit .313 and averaged 34 home runs, 107 RBIs and 21 steals and he finished with a .296 career average and 352 home runs. If you want to cross off Braun due to his PED suspension, you could go to Michael Brantley, also drafted in 2005, but traded to Cleveland in the CC Sabathia trade, or Lorenzo Cain, a 17th-round pick in 2004.
Next hope: Corbin Burnes has averaged a ridiculous 14.2 K's per nine this season as he joins Woodruff and Freddy Peralta for a terrific 1-2-3 in the rotation. We have to see if he can stay healthy and pitch at this level over a full season, but the stuff is nasty. A good find in the 2016 fourth round out of Saint Mary's.
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton
Drafted: 2012 (1.2), reached majors 2015
OK, this is a bit of stretch. Could Buxton be the best player on a championship team? He could, yes, and some of us thought that might be in 2021, especially after a sizzling start. Then he got injured again and the Twins have been a gigantic flop. The Twins' success in recent years is interesting, because the roster hasn't really produced much star power in the draft, even though they had five top-six picks between 2012 and 2017. Buxton has been the only one of the group to do anything -- Kohl Stewart is now with the Cubs, Nick Gordon just reached the majors this year, Tyler Jay got injured, and 2017 No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis is out for the season after ACL surgery.
Best player drafted since 1999: Joe Mauer, 2001 (1.2). Mauer was a bit of a controversial pick at the time, as many believed Mark Prior was the top talent in the draft. The Twins went with the hometown kid and it paid off as Mauer won three batting titles, an MVP Award and could make it to Cooperstown someday.
Next hope: Lewis had a potential breakout in the Arizona Fall League in 2019, but he will now miss two full seasons of action. He's still young, but that's a lot of missed development time to overcome.
New York Mets: Jacob deGrom
Drafted: 2010 (ninth round), reached majors 2014
The Mets have actually drafted pretty well over the past decade with their first-round picks since 2010, including Matt Harvey, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Fulmer (traded for Yoenis Cespedes), Dominic Smith and Michael Conforto. Jeff McNeil was a 12th-round pick in 2013 and Pete Alonso a second-rounder in 2016. Alonso was certainly a big star in 2019, but he hasn't been close to that level in 2020 and 2021, so we default to deGrom and his famous draft story: A shortstop at Stetson, moved to the mound as a pro, Tommy John surgery, reaching the majors at age 25, and now superstardom.
Best player drafted since 1999: David Wright, 2001 (1.38). Yes, deGrom will pass Wright in career WAR if he stays healthy, perhaps next season, but for now we give it to Wright, who was on a Hall of Fame trajectory until his back injuries. He had 46.5 WAR through his age-30 season, but just 2.7 after that.
Next hope: Well, it might be Jarred Kelenic, but he'll be doing it for the Mariners, not the Mets. Maybe it will be Alonso. In the minors, Francisco Alvarez is the top prospect, but he's an international signing. Perhaps third baseman Brett Baty, the first-round pick from 2019 who is off to a solid start at Class A.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge
Drafted: 2013 (1.32), reached majors 2016
Yes, he's a star, even if injuries have eaten away at his productivity in recent seasons. He's been healthy in 2021, however, and has averaged 7.4 WAR per 650 plate appearances in his career. I have no idea where his career will go from here and I might be wary about signing him to a long-term extension given his injury history and the fact that he's already 29, but I also can't imagine the Yankees without him.
Best player drafted since 1999: Brett Gardner, 2005 (third round). Gardner has been one of the most underrated players of the past decade, with 43 career WAR. He was never at the "best player on a championship team" level, but he's been a terrific defensive left fielder, although he won just one Gold Glove (Alex Gordon was winning them during Gardner's prime). The Yankees have not really drafted all that well the past two decades, with a high percentage of their top prospects coming through their Latin American pipeline.
Next hope: Austin Wells may not stay at catcher, but the 2020 first-round pick out of Arizona can hit and draw walks and his bat should get him quickly to the majors.
Oakland Athletics: Matt Chapman
Drafted: 2014 (1.25), reached majors 2017
Chapman wasn't viewed as a sure thing coming out of Cal State Fullerton, due to concerns about his bat. He had hit .312 his junior season, but with just six home runs in 54 games -- although he had plus power, which he learned to tap into as a pro. The defense, however, was always premium, with a strong arm that had some teams interested in him as a pitcher (he had touched 98 while pitching). He reached an extraordinarily high level of play in 2018-19 when he finished seventh and sixth in the MVP voting, but last year's shoulder injury and surgery might still be affecting him this year.
Best player drafted since 1999: It will probably end up being Chapman or Matt Olson (first round, 2012), but a long-gone shout-out to Barry Zito, the ninth overall pick in 1999 who won 165 games and the 2002 Cy Young Award.
Next hope: The 26th overall pick in 2020 out of a California high school, Tyler Soderstrom is crushing it in low-A. For now the A's are still keeping him behind the plate, but a move to first base or left field could be in his future, especially since the bat is so advanced.
Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels
Drafted: 2002 (1.17), reached majors 2006
Many considered Hamels the best pitcher in the 2002 draft, but a broken arm suffered as a high school sophomore scared off some teams and he fell to the Phillies. He also had several injuries in the minors, but was so polished he reached the majors after just 232 innings -- and then had a long, productive and healthy career until going down last season. With 58.1 career WAR, he's a little short of Hall of Fame status, although he's not officially retired and he won World Series MVP in 2008, so it's only right to consider him the best player on a championship team.
Best player drafted since 1999: Chase Utley, 2000 (1.15). Slight edge to Utley over Hamels. He leads in career WAR (64.5) and had an amazing peak from 2005 to 2010, when he averaged 7.6 WAR per season. Former scouting director/assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle drafted Utley in 2000, Ryan Howard in 2001 and Hamels in 2002 (plus Jimmy Rollins in 1996), but the Phillies have had about a 12-year drought in the draft since then. OK, that's not completely fair as Aaron Nola is a borderline star, but there's a reason the Phillies haven't made the playoffs since 2011.
Next hope: Shortstop Bryson Stott has already earned a promotion to Double-A and don't be surprised if the 2019 first-round pick out of UNLV challenges Didi Gregorius for a starting spot as soon as next season.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole
Drafted: 2011 (1.1), reached majors 2013
The Yankees drafted Cole in the first round out of high school, but he turned them down to attend UCLA, where he became the top pick in 2011. He finished fourth in the Cy Young voting for the Pirates in 2015, but two frustrating seasons followed and the Pirates traded him to Houston for four players.
Best player drafted since 1999: Andrew McCutchen, 2005 (1.11). Cole will likely surpass him, but for now McCutchen holds a 15-WAR lead with an MVP trophy to boot. Has any team done less with its top picks in the past two decades than the Pirates? They hit on Cole and McCutchen, but consider John Van Benschoten (1.8), Bryan Bullington (1.1), Brad Lincoln (1.4), Daniel Moskos (1.4), Pedro Alvarez (1.2), Tony Sanchez (1.4) and even Jameson Taillon (1.2).
Next hope: Ke'Bryan Hayes (2015, 1.32) can hit, he can field and if he hits for power he's going to make a lot of All-Star teams.
San Diego Padres: Trea Turner
Drafted: 2014 (1.13)
Turner would be a soft "best player" on a championship team, but he's been at a high level in 2020-21. Of course, he never played for the Padres. They took him out of North Carolina State, but a year later he went to the Nationals as part of a three-team trade that brought Wil Myers to San Diego. Turner has already produced more career WAR than any Padres first-rounder since Derrek Lee, taken in 1993.
Best player drafted since 1999: Jake Peavy (1999, 15th round) or Corey Kluber (2007, fourth round). It's one of these two and nobody else is close, at least until we check back on Turner in a few years. Peavy won 152 games, a Cy Young Award and has 37.2 WAR. Kluber has 102 wins, two Cy Youngs and 33.4 WAR. I'd lean to Kluber due to more prime seasons.
Next hope: CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore entered the season as consensus top-10 prospects, although neither are tearing it up. Gore has struggled with his command and mechanics at Triple-A, while Abrams has held his own in an aggressive promotion to Double-A at age 20. I lean toward Abrams.
San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey
Drafted: 2008 (1.5), reached majors 2009
Posey had one of the greatest seasons in college baseball history for Florida State in 2008 when he hit .463/.566/.879 with 26 home runs and 93 RBIs in 68 games. So how did he fall to the Giants at No. 5? The Rays considered Posey with the first pick but instead took high school shortstop Tim Beckham. The Pirates took Pedro Alvarez and the Royals went with Eric Hosmer. The Orioles, perhaps scared off by Posey's bonus demands, took Brian Matusz. Posey signed for a $6.2 million bonus, the largest upfront bonus in draft history at the time (and $3 million more than Matusz received).
Best player drafted since 1999: Posey or Madison Bumgarner (2007, 1.10). If you want to give Bumgarner extra credit for his postseason dominance, maybe he pushes past Posey (who hasn't been a good postseason hitter, with a .649 OPS). On the other hand, Posey's resurgence in 2021 might mean he has several good seasons left. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum also are worth noting, with Lincecum the team's first-round pick in 2006, giving the Giants an extraordinary three-year run with Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey.
Next hope: Joey Bart had big-time contact issues in his major league debut in 2020 (41 K's, 3 walks), but is hitting well at Triple-A and looks again like the Giants' catcher of the future -- assuming it won't be Posey.
Seattle Mariners: None
Drafted: Not applicable
What a sad story this is. Yes, by my criteria, the Mariners have not drafted a single star player since ... who, Alex Rodriguez in 1993? Their two big stars of the past 20 years were Ichiro Suzuki and Felix Hernandez, both international players. Their best homegrown drafted player has been Kyle Seager. With 35.9 career WAR, maybe I'm selling him short, and he did average 6.1 WAR per season from 2014 to 2016 with help from some excellent defensive metrics (via Baseball-Reference). FanGraphs doesn't value his defense at the same level and has him averaging 4.7 WAR those three seasons.
Best player drafted since 1999: Seager (2009, third round). The interesting thing about the Seager pick is that the Mariners had the second pick that year and took Dustin Ackley, his North Carolina teammate, who was regarded was one of the best pure college hitters of all time after hitting .400 all three seasons at UNC. Ackley's bat never translated to the majors. The other option here would be Adam Jones (2003, 1.37), who certainly had a long and excellent career with 32.6 WAR, but his mediocre OBP (.317) keeps him below the "best player on a championship team" level. Jones went to Baltimore (with Chris Tillman) in the ill-fated Erik Bedard trade.
Next hope: Remember, Jarred Kelenic goes under the Mets here even if he'll make his mark for the Mariners. Logan Gilbert has arrived in the bigs and looks solid, although his stuff suggests more of a future No. 2 or 3 starter than a staff ace. Maybe Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 overall pick last year out of Georgia, gets to that level and don't sleep on catcher Cal Raleigh, who has an OPS over 1.000 at Triple-A.
St. Louis Cardinals: Jack Flaherty
Drafted: 2014 (1.34), reached majors 2017
Yeah, this might be a little premature, but Flaherty was excellent in 2019, especially in the second half, when he finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. He was 8-1 with a 2.90 ERA this season before he went down with an oblique injury. Still, he's just 25, he's already performed at a high level and I believe there's more to come for many more years. If not Flaherty, we probably have to go back to Yadier Molina, a fourth-round pick in 2000 -- although the Cardinals have made many good picks along the way (Dan Haren, Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter).
Best player drafted since 1999: Albert Pujols (1999, 13th round). Depending on how you evaluate such things, Pujols is certainly one of the great draft discoveries of all time (Mike Piazza was a 62nd-round pick). Pujols was a junior college shortstop and when you read the scouting reports from 1999, scouts just had a hard time reconciling the body and lack of speed with his hit tool and baseball instincts. Pujols is ninth on the all-time WAR list by drafted players:
1. Barry Bonds, 162.7 (first round, 1985)
2. Roger Clemens, 139.2 (first round, 1984)
3. Alex Rodriguez, 117.5 (first round, 1993)
4. Rickey Henderson, 111.2 (fourth round, 1976)
5. Tom Seaver, 109.9 (first round, secondary phase, 1966)
6. Mike Schmidt, 106.8 (second round, 1971)
7. Greg Maddux, 106.6 (second round, 1984)
8. Randy Johnson, 101.1 (second round, 1985)
9. Albert Pujols, 99.4 (13th round, 1999)
10. Cal Ripken, 95.9 (second round, 1978)
Next hope: It's a small sample of about 100 at-bats, but power-hitting third baseman Jordan Walker is off to a great start at low Class A in his professional debut, hitting around .350 with power and an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Tampa Bay Rays: David Price
Drafted: 2007 (1.1), reached majors 2008
It feels surprising that we have to go all the back to Price to get a true homegrown franchise player for the Rays -- but that's kind of the way they've operated over the past decade-plus. Depth and more depth and then trade depth for even more depth. So many of their players end up coming from other organizations -- such as Ben Zobrist, who was acquired from the Astros as a minor leaguer. Blake Snell has had one superstar-level, Cy Young-winning season, but that's it. So it's Price, the top pick in 2007 out of Vanderbilt.
Best player drafted since 1999: Evan Longoria (2006, 1.3). In a sense, the Devil Rays turned into the Rays when they drafted Longoria out of Long Beach State. He reached the majors in 2008, the year the Rays went from worst to the World Series (literally ... they had the first pick in the draft that year). Price and Carl Crawford (1999, second round) would be next on the list and Josh Hamilton was The Man there for a couple years with the Rangers.
Next hope: Hmm, most their top prospects are either international signings (Wander Franco, Vidal Brujan) or came from other organizations (Xavier Edwards, Shane Baz, Cole Wilcox). Greg Jones is a speedster out of North Carolina-Wilmington (2019, 1.22) who is showing surprising pop at high A.
Texas Rangers: Ian Kinsler
Drafted: 2003 (17th round), reached majors 2006
Maybe he's a borderline franchise player -- Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre were the best players on the 2010-2012 teams -- but he averaged 4.9 WAR over a nine-year span, peaking at 7.0 in 2011. Maybe he's getting too much credit for his defense, I don't know, but he finished with 50 career WAR, fell one hit shy of 2,000 and scored 100 runs six different seasons.
Best player drafted since 1999: Mark Teixeira, 2001 (1.5). It's Teixeira or Kinsler. Teixeira was the best college bat in 2001 out of Georgia Tech and after Joe Mauer and Mark Prior went 1-2 to the Twins and Cubs, the Devil Rays and Phillies went with easier-to-sign Dewon Brazelton and Gavin Floyd, while the Rangers gave Teixeira a $9.5 million major league contract.
Next hope: Josh Jung? Cole Winn? Whomever the Rangers take with the second pick in the 2021 draft probably goes to the top of their prospect list.
Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette?
Drafted: 2016 (second round), reached majors 2019
And you thought this entire piece had been just one giant troll of the Mariners. But their 1977 expansion cousins have also failed to draft a franchise player since 1999. Bichette certainly has a chance to get there, even as a second fiddle to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but I'm not sure he's there quiet yet. The best Blue Jays of the past 20 years were either drafted before 1999 (Roy Halladay), came from other organizations (Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson) or don't quite fit the franchise tag (Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard). In fact, the drafted player to accumulate the most value while playing for the Blue Jays is Alex Rios, a first-round pick way back in ... 1999.
Best player drafted since 1999: It will almost certainly end up being Bichette. Rios has earned the most career WAR (27.3). Maybe Syndergaard comes back and Joe Musgrove seems to be on the brink of big things.
Next hope: Depending on what you do with Bichette, maybe it's Austin Martin, last year's fifth overall pick who started his pro career at Double-A.
Washington Nationals: Anthony Rendon
Drafted: 2011 (1.6), reached majors 2013
As mentioned in the Cleveland comment, Rendon appeared a lock to go to Seattle with the second pick but the Mariners instead surprised when they took Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen. Rendon had been the projected top pick entering the 2011 draft, but a shoulder injury limited him to DH duties at Rice. When the Royals took high school quarterback Bubba Starling with the fifth pick, the Nationals happily jumped on Rendon and gave him a major league contract. Eight years later, he helped them win the World Series.
Best player drafted since 1999: Bryce Harper (2010, 1.1). The Nationals have had four big first-round picks in their franchise history: Ryan Zimmerman (2005), Stephen Strasburg (2009), Harper and Rendon. Zimmerman is still playing and leads in career WAR, but the other three are all closing in. Given Strasburg's injury issues the past two seasons and Harper's age advantage of Rendon, Harper seems like the best bet now to have the best career. Honorable mention to Cliff Lee (fourth round, 2000, when the franchise was still in Montreal).
Next hope: Lucas Giolito, first-round pick in 2012, is close to a No. 1 with the White Sox, but Cade Cavalli is showing similar upside as he burns through Class A and Double-A and looks like he could be a steal as the 22nd pick in the 2020 draft.