On April 9, in the 8,206th game in Padres history, Joe Musgrove threw the franchise's first no-hitter. He was nearly perfect against the Rangers, with a fourth-inning hit batter the only runner allowed.
Five days later Carlos Rodon -- a pitcher the White Sox non-tendered before re-signing this offseason -- was nearly perfect in the season's second no-hitter, hitting Cleveland's Roberto Perez on the back foot on an 0-2 pitch with one out in the ninth inning.
Last Wednesday John Means, who had never pitched more than seven innings in 43 career starts, was even closer to perfection for the Orioles in a dominant no-hitter against the Mariners. The only baserunner reached on a third-strike wild pitch, making Means the only pitcher in MLB history to lose a perfect game under that scenario. Means struck out 12 and didn't come close to allowing a hit -- the hardest-hit ball against him was an infield popup.
Two days later, the Reds' Wade Miley tossed 2021's fourth no-hitter -- and the second against Cleveland. He allowed just two runners, on a walk and an error. He credited his performance to a temporary tattoo of the Hulk that his 4-year-old son, Jeb, had convinced him to get. "I got no muscles at all," Miley joked after the game. "Maybe this gave me some strength."
The only flaw with that theory is Miley got the tattoo on his right arm. He pitches with his left. In what is quickly becoming the Year of the No-Hitter, however, anything is possible, every night seemingly featuring a no-hit watch. Even a journeyman southpaw who threw just six pitches of 90 mph can hold the opposition hitless.
We've had seasons like this before. There were seven no-hitters in 2015, two by Max Scherzer. In 2012, we saw six individual no-hitters -- three of which were perfect games. There were six in 2010, including Roy Halladay's perfect game and then his no-hitter in the playoffs. There were seven no-hitters in both 1990 and 1991, including Dave Stewart and Fernando Valenzuela on the same day on June 29, 1990.
The last time there were four no-hitters before the end of May was 1917, back in the Deadball Era when pitchers could legally scuff up the ball or apply substances including saliva, tobacco, mud, pine tar, petroleum jelly or good old-fashioned sweat. In 1968, the infamous Year of the Pitcher, there were five no-hitters all season. We might pass that before the All-Star break. I don't think we'll end up with 16 no-hitters by season's end, but with the leaguewide batting average at .234 and ever-escalating strikeouts, it seems unlikely we're going to stop at four.
It leaves this question to debate: Are no-hitters becoming too cheap?
The rise of no-hitters is real
I logged all 205 individual no-hitters since 1920 (sorry, Madison Bumgarner, we're only considering nine-inning no-hitters). Here is a decade-by-decade rundown with the number of no-hitters, average game score, the MLB batting average for the decade and the strikeout rate for the decade:
Not only are we seeing more no-hitters, even after adjusting for the number of teams, but the average game score is going up -- the no-hitters are becoming more dominant, with more strikeouts and fewer walks. We're two hit batters and one wild pitch away from three perfect games this season. While there is certainly a random element to no-hitters, it should not be surprising that more of them come against bad offensive teams than good ones, and more of them come in eras of low batting averages and high strikeout rates. The 205 teams to get no-hit have averaged a .255 team batting average while scoring 4.28 runs per game in the season they were no-hit, compared to the overall totals since 1920 of .262 and 4.46. The twice no-hit Indians are hitting .210. The Mariners team that Means shut down? They're also hitting .210.
So we're in the perfect storm for no-hitters. Some of the key factors in play:
1. Pitchers are better than ever. Pitcher velocity has gradually increased throughout major league history, but I do believe there are three significant inflection points.
(A) The 1960s, when a new generation of power pitchers like Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver and others reigned (in combination with a larger strike zone that existed from 1963 to 1968). Batting averages dropped while strikeouts and no-hitters went up. (B) The early 1990s, when pitchers had to combat increased offense brought on by a livelier ball and juiced hitters. Strikeouts went up and so did no-hitters. (C) The 2010s, as has been well-documented, with the thirst for velocity bumping the average fastball up from 92.3 mph in 2010 to 93.8 mph in 2021 (via FanGraphs). Look at the increase in no-hitters from the 2000s to the 2010s.
2. Pitchers are not only throwing harder, but pitching differently, throwing more offspeed pitches. In 2010, 58.6% of pitches were fastballs (four-seamers or sinkers), according to TruMedia data. In 2021, that percentage has dropped to 50.7. In 2010, 64.6% of pitches on a 3-2 count were fastballs; in 2021, just 55.2%. It's easier to hit fastballs, but it's harder than ever to sit on a fastball to hit.
3. The shift has cut into batting average on grounders, especially for left-handed batters. In 2010, left-handed batters hit .227 on ground balls. Over 2020-21, they're hitting .211.
4. The batters are to blame as well. Some of these no-hitters aren't just about velocity. As former Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd pointed out on MLB Network, Miley and Bumgarner aren't even hard throwers, while Means has average velocity. While commending each pitcher for his fastball command during their no-hitters, O'Dowd also suggested, "Hitters are going to the plate focusing on one thing and one thing only. I think they're having a very difficult time making adjustments during the game, so as the game creeps along and they're not getting any hits, the pressure becomes intense and they don't have the ability to make swing changes to affect trying to put the ball in play consistently."
5. Finally, in 2021, there is the ball itself. My colleague Bradford Doolittle will dig deep into what's behind the offensive woes across the league in an article later this week, but the changes to the ball are perhaps helping the pitchers add even more movement to their breaking stuff, making hitting even more difficult.
Add it up and it's a no-hitter bonanza.
Introducing No-Hitter Score
Means was in such complete control during his no-hitter that I texted my editor to be on alert in the sixth inning. It seemed clear that, barring a lucky blooper or well-placed infield dribbler, he was going to get it. He finished with a game score of 99, tied for 10th-highest among our 205 no-hitters. Means' 99 matches Lucas Giolito's 99 from last August in his 13-strikeout, one-walk no-no -- against a Pirates team that would end up batting .220 for the season. Alec Mills of the Cubs last season no-hit the Brewers, a team that hit .223. How do we weigh these performances against no-hitters from a different era with higher batting averages?
The highest game score for a no-hitter is Max Scherzer's 104, for his 17-strikeout, no-walk performance against the Mets on the next-to-last day of the 2015 season. The Mets made the playoffs, but finished next to last in the majors with a .244 team average and scored just 4.22 runs per game. Furthermore, three of the Mets' best hitters - Yoenis Cespedes, Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda -- did not start the game. Is it the best no-hitter ever?
With this run of no-hitters, I wanted to find a way to rank the no-hitters that is less agnostic than game score, which ignores the strength of the opposing team. I came up with a simple formula, creating what I'll call No-Hitter Score. I took the pitcher's game score, multiplied it by the opponent's season batting average and then added in the team's runs per game, the goal trying to find a happy medium between how dominant the performance and how good the opponent.
The formula isn't perfect and I'll probably tweak a little in No-Hitter Score 2.0, but I generally like the list it created. Don't take it too seriously, it's more of a starting point to debate that skews to the strength of opponent over the strength of the performance, but here you go, the 10 best no-hit games since 1920 as rated by No-Hitter Score:
10. Don Wilson, Astros, 5/1/1969 vs. Reds
No-hitter score: 30.94
Game score: 94
Opponent: .277 average, 4.90 runs per game
Wilson threw two no-hitters in his career and his first one registered a game score of 99, but this one came against a Reds lineup that included Pete Rose, Tony Perez and Johnny Bench. Wilson fanned 13 and walked six. The game was in Cincinnati, where the Reds were even better, hitting .286.
9. Jose Jimenez, Cardinals, 6/25/1999 vs. Diamondbacks
No-hitter score: 31.36
Game score: 93
Opponent: .277 average, 5.60 runs per game
Jimenez went 5-14 with a 5.85 ERA in 1999, his only season as a starter in the majors, making him one of the unlikeliest no-hit pitchers. The Arizona lineup featuring Luis Gonzalez, Matt Williams, Jay Bell and Steve Finley led the National League in runs scored. Jimenez struck out eight and walked two.
8. Monte Pearson, Yankees, 8/27/1938 vs. Indians
No-hitter score: 31.39
Game score: 92
Opponent: .281 average, 5.54 runs per game
Hall of Famer Earl Averill, Hal Trosky and Jeff Heath each hit at least .330 in 1938 to lead the Cleveland offense, but Pearson shut them all down in his seven-strikeout, two-walk gem.
7. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks, 5/18/2004 vs. Braves
No-hitter score: 31.96
Game score: 100
Opponent: .270 average, 4.96 runs per game
This was Johnson's 13-strikeout perfect game against a lineup with Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, J.D. Drew, Julio Franco and Johnny Estrada, who hit .314 that year. Two of the Braves' best hitters -- Marcus Giles (.311) and Rafael Furcal (.279) -- didn't play though.
6. Al Leiter, Marlins, 5/11/1996 vs. Rockies
No-hitter score: 32.05
Game score: 91
Opponent: .287 average, 5.93 runs per game
Subjectively, this game should not be anywhere near the top 10. Leiter's game score (six K's, two walks) wasn't particularly high and while the Rockies were a high-powered offense with the Blake Street Bombers (Dante Bichette, Andres Galarraga, Ellis Burks, Vinny Castilla and Larry Walker, although Walker didn't play in this game), they hit just .228 on the road compared to .343 at home. This game took place at Joe Robbie Stadium, most definitely not Coors Field.
5. Hideo Nomo, Dodgers, 9/17/1996 vs. Rockies
No-hitter score: 32.05
Game score: 91
Opponent: .287 average, 5.93 runs per game
On the other hand, this game probably deserves to rate even higher -- it remains the only no-hitter in Coors Field history. The Rockies averaged an incredible 8.12 runs per game at home, where they went 55-26 in 1996. All the big bats except Walker were in the lineup. Nomo walked four and fanned eight, striking out Burks to end his 110-pitch effort. After I came up with my No-Hitter Score formula, I found an article Bill James -- the inventor of game score -- had written in 2012. He created an adjusted game score, and listed his 10 best games of the past 60 years. Nomo's was No. 2, behind Kerry Wood's 20-strikeout one-hitter (at 105, the highest nine-inning game score in MLB history). If we adjusted Nomo's No-Hitter Score to use the Rockies' home offensive numbers, it jumps all the way to 39.33, easily No. 1 on the list.
4. Dazzy Vance, Dodgers, 9/13/1925 vs. Phillies
No-hitter score: 32.75
Game score: 93
Opponent: .295 average, 5.31 runs per game
Vance didn't win his first game in the majors until he was 31, but still won 197 games, led the National League in strikeouts each season from 1922 to 1928, and made the Hall of Fame. The Phillies did hit for a high average in 1925, which helped Vance's game rate this high, but the Phillies were kind of the Rockies of their day. They hit .318 with 73 home runs at the bandbox Baker Bowl and .271 with 27 home runs on the road. Vance also allowed an unearned run -- one of nine games on our list of 205 that wasn't a shutout. I'd probably boot this one out of the top 10.
3. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 6/18/2014 vs. Rockies
No-hitter score: 32.81
Game score: 102
Opponent: .276 average, 4.66 runs per game
Kershaw's 102 game score is second highest of all no-hitters as he struck out 15 -- the only baserunner reached on a throwing error. This game took place at Dodger Stadium and the Rockies hit .228 on the road that year (compared to .322 at home). The Rockies also ran out a suspect lineup, as Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Justin Morneau all sat, in favor of Kyle Parker, Josh Rutledge and Brandon Barnes, making this one a questionable top-10 selection, despite Kershaw's dominance.
If we kick Leiter, Vance and Kershaw out of the top 10, the next three additions would be:
Sean Manaea, for his 10-strikeout, two-walk no-no in 2018 against a powerful Red Sox lineup (.268 average, 5.41 runs per game).
Dwight Gooden's effort against the Mariners in 1996. Gooden's game score of 86 is one of the lowest on the list, but the Mariners hit .287 and averaged 6.17 runs per game, the most of any of the teams no-hit. Seattle's lineup that night included Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez and Alex Rodriguez. A little tougher trio than Tom Murphy, Evan White and Sam Haggerty.
Paul Dean, for a 1934 no-hitter for the Cardinals against a Brooklyn team that hit .281 and averaged 4.89 runs.
2. Carl Hubbell, Giants, 5/8/1929 vs. Pirates
No-hitter score: 33.14
Game score: 90
Opponent: .303 average, 5.87 runs per game
Hubbell fanned four and walked one in throwing the only no-hitter over the four-year span from 1927 to 1930 when the overall major league average was .287. The Hall of Fame lefty faced a lineup that included six players who hit .300 in 1929, including Hall of Famers Paul Waner, Lloyd Waner and Pie Traynor.
1. Charlie Robertson, White Sox, 4/30/1922 vs. Tigers
No-hitter score: 33.79
Game score: 93
Opponent: .306 average, 5.34 runs per game
Robertson was making just his fourth career start when he tossed a perfect game against a Detroit lineup featuring Ty Cobb, Harry Heilmann and Bobby Veach. Cobb hit .401, Heilmann .356 and Veach .327. Robertson fanned six and recorded 15 infield outs. In the fifth inning, Heilmann demanded the home-plate umpire inspect the ball, protesting that Robertson was doctoring the baseball. The next inning, Cobb asked the umpires to check Robertson's uniform. In the eighth inning, Cobb asked them to check the glove of the Chicago first baseman. There had been an overflow crowd in Detroit for the game and after Robertson retired the final batter, the fans stormed the field and carried the enemy hurler off on their shoulders.
OK, I can't leave you hanging. Here are the five lowest No-Hitter Scores, all against less-than-stellar offensive teams:
201. Burt Hooton, Cubs, 4/16/1972 vs. Phillies
No-hitter score: 23.75
Game score: 87
Opponent: .236 average, 3.22 runs per game
Hooton's no-hitter came in the second game of the season (just his fourth career start) and included seven walks to go with seven strikeouts.
202. Dean Chance, Twins, 8/25/1967 vs. Indians
No-hitter score: 23.66
Game score: 86
Opponent: .235 average, 3.45 runs per game
Chance walked five, struck out eight and allowed an earned run in the first inning. Chance had 15 games in his career with a higher game score, including a 14-inning start in 1964 in which he allowed just three hits and no runs (game score of 116).
203. Bill Stoneman, Expos, 10/2/1972 vs. Mets
No-hitter score: 23.41
Game score: 89
Opponent: .225 average, 3.38 runs per game
Stoneman's second career no-hitter came in the first game of a doubleheader in the final series of the season against a bad Mets lineup that didn't even include its best hitter in Rusty Staub. Stoneman walked seven to go with nine K's.
204. George Culver, Reds, 7/29/1968 vs. Phillies
No-hitter score: 22.92
Game score: 84
Opponent: .233 average, 3.35 runs per game
Culver's game score is tied for third-lowest of the 205 no-hitters (Francisco Liriano and Cliff Chambers both had an 83) as he walked five, fanned four and allowed an unearned run.
205. Juan Marichal, Giants, 6/15/1963 vs. Colt .45s
No-hitter score: 22.66
Game score: 90
Opponent: .220 average, 2.86 runs per game
Marichal's game score isn't terrible, but this was one sorry Houston offense so that made this the "easiest" no-hitter on the list. It was the only no-hitter of Marichal's career, but he would have a more famous game a few weeks later: A 16-inning shutout in a duel against Warren Spahn (Willie Mays finally won it with a home run off Spahn).
As you might expect, due to the low batting averages of their opponents, our 2021 no-hit heroes don't rank so well via No-Hitter Score. Musgrove comes in at 75, Means at 192, Rodon and Miley tied for 199th.
So are no-hitters becoming too cheap?
Circling back to the question. I still find no-hitters exciting, although like most things in baseball circa 2021, it's much more exciting if it's your team celebrating. Padres fans who waited 52 years to see one of their own pitch a no-hitter will long remember Musgrove's game. As an individual achievement, it's obviously the memory of a lifetime. Of the 205 no-hitters on my list, only 24 of the pitchers threw more than one. All-time greats like Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Steve Carlton never threw one, while Chris Heston, Bud Smith and Philip Humber (a perfect game, no less) did.
Certainly, the stature of the pitcher factors in. Nolan Ryan became a legend due to his seven no-hitters. A Jacob deGrom no-hitter would be more interesting than a Wade Miley no-hitter. While four in a span of a few weeks feels like a lot, they are still rare -- although with 40 since 2010, a little less memorable. I remember when I was younger I could recall all the recent no-hitters; now I know why, considering there were just 13 in the entire decade of the 1980s.
So I say enjoy the moment. You can still complain about the all the strikeouts.