Way-too-early 2021 MLB starting rotation rankings

Bradford DoolittleFeb 10, 2021, 07:00 AM ET
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Last week, we took a snapshot of the lineups across Major League Baseball as we begin to look forward to the scheduled opening of spring training. Today, we do the same for the starting rotations.

As with the hitters, there is still room for a little last-minute juggling. When the Los Angeles Dodgers secured reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer last week, that took the top remaining free agent off the board. Some quality starting pitchers remain on the market and are looking to secure deals even as most of the industry prepares to head for Arizona and Florida.

Among the notable free-agent hurlers who otherwise would populate this piece are veterans James Paxton, Jake Odorizzi, Taijuan Walker and Rick Porcello. They and several others will impact some teams this season; but right now, we just don't know which teams those will be. Factor these names in if you don't like the way your team looks here.

Pitcher scores below are based on a formula weighting most recent 50 starts, strength of schedule and 2021 projections from my system. The league average game score is 50, though won-lost records were based on simulations that used the pitcher's forecast distribution of game scores, his team's schedule and his generated pitching matchups. The top six starters for each team, based on their projected number of outings, are listed with their scores. Other notable starters beyond No. 6 who figure into the team numbers are listed by name only. Team game scores are rounded to the nearest tenth of a point but there are no ties.

On to the rankings.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Average game score: 54.9 | Game score wins: 95

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Trevor Bauer (Base game score: 58.5 | Game score W-L: 20-11)
2. Walker Buehler (GSc: 58.2 | GSc W-L: 20-11)
3. Clayton Kershaw (GSc: 59.2 | GSc W-L: 19-10)
4. David Price (GSc: 52.5 | GSc W-L: 12-10)
5. Julio Urías (GSc: 49.7 | GSc W-L:11-11)
6. Dustin May (GSc: 48.6 | GSc W-L: 11-11)
Others: Tony Gonsolin

Did the Dodgers absolutely have to have Bauer to repeat as champions? No, they didn't, nor does his acquisition guarantee a thing. But, man, does this team look strong on paper.

On a per-game basis, Kershaw still profiles as the Dodgers' top starter, though I've penciled him in with a slightly lower innings/starts component than Bauer and Buehler. For Buehler, getting through a full season with 32 or 33 starts is really the only thing standing between him and Cy Young contention. For Bauer, the pressure is ratcheted up a notch by the knowledge that he has to be at his best in order to actually be an upgrade to a team already so good. Some might see his $40 million salary as a source of pressure, as well. In any event, these are all good problems for a team's rotation to have.

Price will be one of the more intriguing players to watch early in the season. At his best, he has been every bit as good as the Dodgers' big three. What will his level of play be after a year off? Usually when we talk about a pitcher missing a season, the questions revolve around how his shoulder or elbow is going to respond after an injury or surgery. Since Price opted out of 2020, it was a year of rest and recovery for him. It's possible he could be rusty upon his return. It's also possible that the months of healing will allow Price to turn back the clock, and wouldn't that be a frightening proposition?

Speaking of frightening, Gonsolin was one of baseball's best rookie pitchers in 2020. Here, I've slotted him as the Dodgers' seventh-best starter, and, thus, he gets lumped in as one of the "others." Whether this actually turns out to be the case likely depends on how Dave Roberts sees his extra starters fitting into bullpen roles. But the point is this: Whether you're talking about May or Gonsolin ending up on that "others" line, their presence there means L.A. has got one heck of a deep and talented rotation.

2. New York Yankees

Average game score: 54.3 | Game score wins: 94

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Gerrit Cole (GSc: 66.5 | GSc W-L: 26-8)
2. Jameson Taillon (GSc: 52.6 | GSc W-L: 15-12)
3. Corey Kluber (GSc: 55.5 | GSc W-L: 14-10)
4. Deivi Garcia (GSc: 46.7 | GSc W-L: 11-13)
5. Luis Severino (GSc: 55.3 | GSc W-L: 10-7)
6. Jordan Montgomery (GSc: 49.4 | GSc W-L: 8-9)
Others: Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt

Cole is the top-ranked starting pitcher in baseball, according to the system I developed for this ranking. He is dominant. He's consistent. He's durable. What more is there? Over his past 50 starts, 43 of them have rated as at least good by this methodology (any start in the top half of game scores), two more than any other pitcher. His 12 dominant starts (top 5%) are tied for second, one behind Chris Sale, whose past 50 starts don't include any from the 2020 season, which he missed after Tommy John surgery. Again: Cole is the current best pitcher in baseball as the 2021 season dawns.

After that, as we've written, the Yankees have some big names with good remaining upside and a strong undercurrent of injury-related downside. Taillon and Severino missed all of 2020, while Kluber threw one inning. German missed the season because of suspension. Garcia is just getting his feet wet.

Some notes to keep in mind throughout: Generally speaking, barring other evidence, I've chosen to be optimistic with most injury-related questions when it comes to performance, while downgrading projected starts depending on the best and most recent information. This system is also pretty conservative with youngsters such as Garcia with short big league track records, even though I have incorporated prospect analysis into their rating.

What all of that means for the Yankees is that this might be a somewhat optimistic snapshot of their rotation. Perhaps Kluber is simply done. Perhaps Severino's rehab lingers or he struggles upon his anticipated midseason return. Perhaps Taillon struggles with his transition from a small market to baseball's biggest market. The sheer number of questions the Yankees have in this area means it's unlikely all of the answers turn out to be happy ones for New York.

Or maybe the Yankees end up with baseball's best rotation led by baseball's best pitcher. Things are rarely dull in the Bronx.

3. Washington Nationals

Average game score: 54.1 | Game score wins: 93

Projected rotation by starts made:

Being a 20-game winner by game score isn't the same thing as being a 20-game winner. No-decisions don't factor in because what is being measured is whether you outpitch the other starting pitcher. No matter what happens, you get a "W" or an "L." Still, by this definition of a 20-game winner, only two teams had two: The Dodgers (Bauer and Buehler) and the Nationals.

For the first time last season, Scherzer showed at least some minor signs of decline, and that's reflected in his ratings here. His average modified game score over his past 50 starts was 64.3. When those starts are weighted for recency, the number is 62.7. That's still elite, but the trajectory at least bears watching.

Speaking of trajectory, the career path of Lester is decidedly on the downward slope; and if he can't halt that decline early on this season, it could push the Nationals' rotation depth, especially if Strasburg's injury woes persist. According to these ratings, Lester isn't even one of Washington's five best starters. The lefty has had a tremendous career and will have an interesting Hall of Fame case. Whether we start making that case in the near future depends on how well he responds with his new team during the opening months of the 2021 campaign.

4. New York Mets

Average game score: 54.1 | Game score wins: 93

Projected rotation by starts made:

I've already anointed Cole as baseball's best-right-now pitcher. And if you immediately cursed at me for being an idiot, it's probably because you see deGrom as the right answer to that question. It's a compelling case. Like Cole, deGrom is the full package when it comes to dominance, durability and consistency. His 41 good starts were just two fewer than Cole's, and deGrom also had 12 dominant starts. However, deGrom had zero starts that rated as terrible (bottom 5%).

Simply put, deGrom gives the Mets a strong chance of winning every time out; and about every fourth start, he is just going to shut down the opponent. Of course, the Mets have managed to mess up so many of deGrom's great outings over the past three years it's become a punchline.

Beyond deGrom, the Mets are much in the same boat as the Yankees in terms of having rotation question marks but also considerable upside. Carrasco is a legit No. 2, but Stroman sat out last season, Syndergaard isn't expected back until June and Peterson has a short track record. Still, this projects to be a group that gives the Mets a good chance of winning on any given day, with the potential for much more.

5. San Diego Padres

Average game score: 53.8 | Game score wins: 92

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Yu Darvish (GSc: 60.0 | GSc W-L: 21-10)
2. Blake Snell (GSc: 56.8 | GSc W-L: 18-11)
3. Dinelson Lamet (GSc: 59.0 | GSc W-L: 18-9)
4. Chris Paddack (GSc: 53.4 | GSc W-L: 12-10)
5. Joe Musgrove (GSc: 50.8 | GSc W-L: 10-9)
6. MacKenzie Gore (GSc: 48.2 | GSc W-L: 7-8)
Others: Adrian Morejon, Ryan Weathers

The Padres join the Dodgers and Nationals as the only teams to have three projected 18-game winners (again, according to game scores), though this is perhaps making an overly optimistic assessment of Lamet's ailing elbow. However, even if Lamet doesn't make 27 starts, as suggested here, the winter acquisition of Musgrove deepens the San Diego rotation and raises its floor. Also, the presence of Gore, Morejon and Weathers gives the Padres several sources of potential high-impact upside. And let us not forget: This dazzling portrait doesn't even include Mike Clevinger, who will rejoin this party someday.

6. Cleveland Indians

Average game score: 52.9 | Game score wins: 90

Projected rotation by starts made:

In Bieber, the soon-to-be-former-"Indians" have another pitcher who belongs in the best-right-now conversation. The breakout righty heads up a rotation that is the main reason the cost-cutting Cleveland club isn't projected to be in a downward spiral as a team. This is true despite the loss of Clevinger and Carrasco over the past half a year because of financially motivated trades. Despite those departures, Cleveland figures to have a strong one through four, with young McKenzie blossoming in his first full big league season. Cleveland has plenty to work with for spots five and beyond, as well. It's a group that lacks the same certainty we've had about recent Cleveland rotations in terms of name recognition, but it retains the certainty we've come to accept about an organization that is as good as anyone at developing solutions for its starting pitching.

7. Atlanta Braves

Average game score: 52.2 | Game score wins: 88

Projected rotation by starts made:

In each of the past two seasons, the Braves have had a young pitcher emerge as a Cy Young front-runner. In 2019, Soroka finished sixth in the final balloting, while last year, Fried finished fifth. After with what we saw from Anderson late last season and into the playoffs, it would hardly be a surprise if he gave Atlanta a three-year streak of such pitchers. The thing is, after acquiring veterans Morton and Smyly over the winter, the Braves don't necessarily need to have their young trio all perform like All-Stars. But it might happen, and with quality depth in Wright and Wilson, Atlanta has the potential to field its best rotation in years.

8. Houston Astros

Average game score: 52.1 | Game score wins: 87

Projected rotation by starts made:

This lofty ranking for the Astros might seem like a mild surprise since Houston's depth chart doesn't include Cole or the injured Justin Verlander. Still, even as the Houston system has thinned out from its apex in the mid-2010s, it has remained strong in starting pitching. Greinke and McCullers provide a quality veteran foundation, and the Astros back them with the rapidly ascending trio of Valdez, Urquidy and Javier. And it hasn't been that long since Whitley was the most highly regarded of them all. Those rooting for an Astros nosedive are going to be disappointed.

9. Chicago White Sox

Average game score: 51.2 | Game score wins: 85

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Lance Lynn (GSc: 57.4 | GSc W-L: 20-11)
2. Dallas Keuchel (GSc: 49.9 | GSc W-L: 16-15)
3. Lucas Giolito (GSc: 58.6 | GSc W-L: 20-11)
4. Dylan Cease (GSc: 45.5 | GSc W-L: 10-14)
5. Michael Kopech (GSc: 47.8 | GSc W-L: 9-10)
6. Reynaldo Lopez (GSc: 45.4 | GSc W-L: 5-7)
Others: Jonathan Stiever, Carlos Rodon

The game scores used in this analysis are based on the old Bill James formula, but they incorporate start-by-start adjustments for park effects and the effects on hits from a pitcher's defense and his own ability to induce soft contact. The hits adjustments help to compensate for the bias the original formula has in favor of strikeout pitchers but doesn't get all the way there. Thus, the system might underappreciate pitchers such as Keuchel, who enjoyed a banner debut season on the South Side. Keuchel, Giolito and offseason acquisition Lynn will team to give the White Sox an elite big three. Still, the ceiling for this group will be determined by the pitchers at slots four and beyond. Can Cease find consistency? What will Kopech look like after two years off? Has the ship sailed on Lopez? The answers to these questions will determine whether the White Sox rotation can make the difficult leap from good to great.

10. St. Louis Cardinals

Average game score: 51.1 | Game score wins: 84

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Jack Flaherty (GSc: 58.2 | GSc W-L: 22-12)
2. Kwang-Hyun Kim (GSc: 50.8 | GSc W-L: 15-14)
3. Adam Wainwright (GSc: 49.9 | GSc W-L: 14-13)
4. Carlos Martinez (GSc: 47.9 | GSc W-L: 13-14)
5. Miles Mikolas (GSc: 51.0 | GSc W-L: 12-10)
6. Daniel Ponce de Leon (GSc: 50.9 | GSc W-L: 8-7)
Others: Johan Oviedo

The Cardinals could stand to add another arm, even after the resigning of stalwart Wainwright. Mikolas is coming off surgery, and Ponce de Leon's track record is short. Kim offers upside, as a pitcher who got better over the course of his first season in the United States. But that trajectory could be offset by the severe downward shape of Martinez's career. If that continues, and if Flaherty doesn't reestablish himself as the ace he is penciled in to be, the Redbirds' rotation could drop in the pecking order. Still, the overall picture is one of stability, with only six teams featuring a higher rate of good starts based on recent records.

11. Milwaukee Brewers

Average game score: 50.8 | Game score wins: 84

Projected rotation by starts made:

During Milwaukee's recent run of success, the rotation has often been a matter of putting together players who are coached up in the Brewers' sharp pitching program. This year's group looks to be a cut above that, with Woodruff, Burnes and Houser all having exciting stuff with an upward trajectory. The Brewers hope to get more out of Lindblom in his second season after coming over from Korea. Also, Craig Counsell might have to mix and match at times with the bottom of the rotation. Peralta, who has worked in a variety of roles since arriving in the big leagues, might be the wild card as a still-young pitcher with excellent stuff who hasn't enjoyed a real breakout season. If that happens this year, he joins Woodruff and Burnes as pitchers who can dominate an opponent on any given night.

12. Arizona Diamondbacks

Average game score: 50.8 | Game score wins: 83

Projected rotation by starts made:

This system sees this as at least something of a bounce-back season for Bumgarner, though, frankly, that might be wishful algorithmic processing. Bumgarner is coming off a woeful season. Over his past 50 starts, only 26 rate as good, and he has more terrible outings (3) than dominant (2). Still, for Arizona to justify this standing, Bumgarner is going to have to recover at least some measure of his old form. A similar description also applies in various forms to Kelly, Weaver and Smith. In less uncertain news, this system absolutely loves Gallen, who has shown a propensity for putting up dominant stat lines. The track record isn't a long one, and he was never exactly rated as an elite prospect. Yet the numbers come together to mark Gallen as a pitcher to watch.

13. Miami Marlins

Average game score: 50.7 | Game score wins: 83

Projected rotation by starts made:

The Marlins centered their rebuilding strategy around starting pitching depth. Last season's run to the NL Division Series might have been a false vindication of the pace of the Miami project, but it did show that the Marlins' rotation is a group that must be reckoned with for some time to come. The nation got a sense of the collective potential from Alcantara, Lopez and Sanchez, but that trio is really just the beginning. Sanchez and Lopez give the Marlins something of a John Smoltz-Tom Glavine dynamic, but the real timeline for the Marlins will depend on how quickly the likes of Garrett and Edward Cabrera can force their way into the mix.

14. Minnesota Twins

Average game score: 50.7 | Game score wins: 83

Projected rotation by starts made:

The Twins were at least mentioned as a fit for Bauer during the offseason, and it's certainly true that dropping Bauer onto the top of this group would have shaken things up. For now, what we have in terms of offseason development for the Minnesota rotation is that low-volume, high-quality lefty veteran Rich Hill departed and his doppelganger, Happ, was brought in. Odorizzi is gone, replaced by, so far, no one, though it remains logical that Odorizzi could become his own replacement. What the Twins' rotation screams for is a top-of-the-heap ace, which Bauer might have been, and which Berrios can be on any given day. Among the younger upside options who should see some big league action this year, the one to watch is Duran. Still, the Twins' rotation will remain deeper than it is dynamic, which is a bigger issue in October than it is during the regular season.

15. Cincinnati Reds

Average game score: 50.4 | Game score wins: 82

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Sonny Gray (GSc: 55.5 | GSc W-L: 19-12)
2. Luis Castillo (GSc: 58.6 | GSc W-L: 20-11)
3. Tyler Mahle (GSc: 48.5 | GSc W-L: 11-13)
4. Wade Miley (GSc: 43.7 | GSc W-L: 7-12)
5. Michael Lorenzen (GSc: 47.8 | GSc W-L: 9-10)
6. Tejay Antone (GSc: 47.8 | GSc W-L: 8-9)
Others: Jose De Leon, Jeff Hoffman, Tony Santillan

Losing Bauer hurts, no doubt, but if the Reds drop out of the tepid NL Central race this season, it won't likely be due to the rotation. Gray and Castillo remain an excellent one-two combo, and there is some upside in the move of Lorenzen into the rotation. Mahle is solid, but Miley is coming off a difficult season and will have to fight off the likes Antone and De Leon to stay in the top five. Also, Hoffman will be worth watching. Any new pitcher who comes into the Derek Johnson-led pitching program merits watching; but in Hoffman's case, you get the added wrinkle of a five-year veteran who has finally escaped Coors Field.

16. Philadelphia Phillies

Average game score: 50.4 | Game score wins: 82

Projected rotation by starts made:

The Phillies have a terrific foundation with a top two of Nola and Wheeler, and they have the exciting upside of young righty Howard, who saw considerable big league time in 2020. That trio joins Eflin to give the Phillies a chance to field an above-average rotation. However, the real drama will concern the fortunes of late-winter acquisitions Moore and Anderson, who join holdover Velasquez as veterans trying to regain former success. Moore was once one of baseball's more promising pitchers, but the lefty spent last season putting up big numbers overseas. His last good season in the majors was more than a half-decade ago, so the odds of seeing Moore return to All-Star status aren't great. Still, with limited options, Dave Dombrowski's signing of Moore is intriguing. As for Anderson, he is coming off a terrible season in Toronto after putting up a string of three straight good seasons for the Brewers; he is the prototype of a bounce-back candidate. If Dombrowski finds success with Moore and Anderson, the Phillies will have a nice rotation that mixes depth, the dynamism of two ace-level pitchers, youth and veteran stability.

17. Boston Red Sox

Average game score: 50.2 | Game score wins: 82

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Eduardo Rodriguez (GSc: 54.4 | GSc W-L: 17-12)
2. Nathan Eovaldi (GSc: 51.4 | GSc W-L: 15-14)
3. Garrett Richards (GSc: 47.6 | GSc W-L: 12-15)
4. Nick Pivetta (GSc: 48.6 | GSc W-L: 11-11)
5. Martin Perez (GSc: 44.3 | GSc W-L: 7-12)
6. Chris Sale (GSc: 61.2 | GSc W-L: 10-5)
Others: Tanner Houck, Connor Seabold

Setting up a preseason depth chart in baseball is as much art as science. You weigh track records of durability, comments from the teams and anticipated performance, then come up with a number that makes sense at the time. Nothing can swing a team's projection more in one direction or the other than misfired playing time projection. There are two reasons we bring this up for Boston: Sale and Perez. In Sale's case, despite coming off a missed season, he is head and shoulders above his Boston rotation mates but isn't expected to return to the mound until well into the season. Perez, on the other hand, carries the worst projection among those in consideration for major rotation roles, but he also might be the one Boston pitcher capable of working a large volume of innings. The Red Sox have tried to temper expectations for a rapid return by Sale. Yet the ultimate fate for the Red Sox's rotation might be decided by the final tally of innings for Sale in relation to those of Perez. Suffice to say, the more Sale, the better.

18. Los Angeles Angels

Average game score: 49.5 | Game score wins: 80

Projected rotation by starts made:

This rotation is just so ... Angels. That is, there are plenty of familiar names and even a certain amount of stability in the group's collective forecast. Yet, it's hard to look at the one-through-seven outlook and conceive of any way to describe it that would really excite Halos fans. Heaney is a good pitcher. In a better rotation, he would be a three or a four. Bundy and Cobb have been up and down, and if they both hit big in 2021, Orioles fans will move one step closer to the conclusion that the universe hates them. Quintana has taken a significant step back over the past couple of years. And while Ohtani remains as fun to watch as any player in baseball -- no matter what he is doing -- seeing him pitch at this point is kind of like watching Joe Montana over his last couple of years in the NFL: You see the ability and you hope for greatness, but you also fear he could break apart at any moment. Good names. Middling projection. More downside than up. It's the Angels.

19. Colorado Rockies

Average game score: 48.9 | Game score wins: 77

Projected rotation by starts made:

As hard as everyone has been on the Rockies lately, you have to give Jeff Bridich & Co. credit for putting together a sustainably solid starting rotation, one almost entirely composed of homegrown pitchers. While I called the Colorado lineup baseball's worst just last week, the overall Rockies outlook isn't quite that bleak. And this group is the reason why. While Gomber is never going to make Rockies fans forget about the star he (and some prospects) were traded for -- Nolan Arenado -- Gomber does project to give Colorado a one through five that should keep the team competitive on most days. There is the always-needed caveat that Gomber will have to prove he won't implode from the challenge of pitching so often at Coors Field, but if he does, he is another capable rotation player for Bud Black. At the top of the Rockies' rotation is Marquez, who because of his Coors-skewed stat line might never get his due as a legit front-line starter.

20. Oakland Athletics

Average game score: 48.8 | Game score wins: 77

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Chris Bassitt (GSc: 50.8 | GSc W-L: 16-15)
2. Sean Manaea (GSc: 51.4 | GSc W-L: 15-14)
3. Jesus Luzardo (GSc: 51.6 | GSc W-L: 16-13)
4. Frankie Montas (GSc: 51.3 | GSc W-L: 14-13)
5. Mike Fiers (GSc: 43.1 | GSc W-L: 7-12)
6. A.J. Puk (GSc: 45.5 | GSc W-L: 5-7)
Others: Daulton Jefferies, Paul Blackburn

Oakland has consistently managed to fashion a playable rotation no matter how underwhelming projections make them look. The need to do that might be diminishing, as the A's now have a group of young pitchers with a short track record who could add some needed dynamism to the normal professionalism of the Oakland rotation. Luzardo and Montas are both ascendant, with Luzardo perhaps on the verge of stardom. Jeffries should get some starts this season. Then there is the wild card: Fearsome lefty Puk will again try to establish himself after a string of injury setbacks. The A's won't push him too much this season, but Puk has the potential to give Oakland another ace-level starter. There are a lot of moving parts in this picture, which is why once again Billy Beane and David Forst turned to professional "known quantity" Fiers to add stability.

21. Toronto Blue Jays

Average game score: 48.4 | Game score wins: 76

Projected rotation by starts made:

As the Blue Jays try to move from a rising team to a legitimate championship contender, the work of this starting rotation will be under the spotlight. Ryu is terrific. And if he can stay healthy, Pearson has the makings of a bona fide ace. That's a good beginning. After that is a cluster of familiar veterans who lately have shown more of a propensity for getting blown up than for consistency. It's the collective work of Ray, Matz, Stripling, Roark and Thornton that will determine how far Toronto goes this season. Still, assuming the Blue Jays hang in contention over the first half, one would expect them to make a big push for a splashy in-season addition to boost the ceiling for this group.

22. Tampa Bay Rays

Average game score: 48.3 | Game score wins: 76

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Tyler Glasnow (GSc: 55.8 | GSc W-L: 21-13)
2. Ryan Yarbrough (GSc: 48.5 | GSc W-L: 15-16)
3. Josh Fleming (GSc: 45.9 | GSc W-L: 12-17)
4. Michael Wacha (GSc: 44.0 | GSc W-L: 8-14)
5. Shane McClanahan (GSc: 43.5 | GSc W-L: 6-11)
6. Luis Patino (GSc: 46.3 | GSc W-L: 5-7)
Others: Trevor Richards, Brendan McKay

Gone are Snell, Morton and the injured Yonny Chirinos. That trio took with them the ability for this system to forecast a contending Rays rotation. Still, this is an organization that has earned the benefit of the doubt. One pitcher missing from the projection is Chris Archer, whose signing was officially announced Tuesday. Archer's recent track record would not improve this outlook. In fact, had Archer been signed to a minor league deal, I might not have mentioned him. But he has a big league deal, and because it's with the Rays, you almost assume he'll look like a different pitcher than the one who struggled in Pittsburgh. Anyway, given the youth of Rays rotation candidates such as Fleming, McClanahan, Patino, McKay and Brent Honeywell, if Tampa Bay ends up with an elite rotation by the end of the year, it would hardly be a surprise. That's what the Rays do: They prevent runs.

23. Kansas City Royals

Average game score: 48.1 | Game score wins: 75

Projected rotation by starts made:

The Royals are set up well to have a breakout rotation. There is a solid veteran foundation in place, with Minor returning to Kansas City to join Keller and Duffy. Bubic and Singer both got some essential exposure to the big leagues last season and should be the better for it. The next wave of young K.C. rotation players will include Lynch -- perhaps the best of the bunch -- and Kowar. Not far behind them, whether it's this season or next, will be 2020 first-rounder Asa Lacy. This should be a competent rotation in 2021, and it has the potential to be quite a bit more than that.

24. Detroit Tigers

Average game score: 47.7 | Game score wins: 74

Projected rotation by starts made:

It's appropriate that the Tigers' rotation bumps up next to Kansas City in the rankings, because there are a lot of similarities between the starting staffs of the two American League Central rivals. I like the Royals' veteran foundation (Minor, Keller, Duffy) a bit more than I like the comparable group in Detroit (Boyd, Fulmer, Urena and Turnbull). However, would you rather have the five young Royals starters mentioned above (Bubic, Singer, Lynch, Kowar and Lacey) or the Detroit group of phenoms that includes Skubal, Mize, Manning and Alex Faedo? It's a tough call. Happily, it's an argument that will be settled on the field during numerous head-to-head matchups over the years to come.

25. Chicago Cubs

Average game score: 47.5 | Game score wins: 73

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Kyle Hendricks (GSc: 54.3 | GSc W-L: 18-13)
2. Zach Davies (GSc: 46.8 | GSc W-L: 13-16)
3. Alec Mills (GSc: 48.1 | GSc W-L: 14-15)
4. Trevor Williams (GSc: 45.3 | GSc W-L: 11-16)
5. Adbert Alzolay (GSc: 47.8 | GSc W-L: 11-13)
6. Kohl Stewart (GSc: 39.8 | GSc W-L: 3-7)
Others: Tyson Miller, Cory Abbott

As mentioned, the version of game scores used in this methodology adjusted the actual hit totals allowed by pitchers on a game-by-game basis for defense (using Statcast-based expected averages) and the pitcher's ability to induce soft contact. This latter trait is one that is only borne out over a huge sample of outings, so it was deployed with caution. That I did this at all was entirely because of Hendricks, whose mastery is not done justice by game score and, frankly, by a lot of other metrics. And for all my trouble, the system still underrates Hendricks, who is probably my favorite pitcher to watch in baseball right now. The cast around Hendricks is quite a bit different, as the small-town Cubs had to pare down payroll because of the limitations of their market and the limited reach of their brand. (The last sentence was sarcasm, if you can't tell.) Gone are Lester, Darvish and Quintana. In is a group of fairly anonymous starters. Davies is an established big leaguer who fills out a rotation well but is miscast as Hendricks' No. 2, if that's how it shakes out. Williams is another established, lower-rotation pitcher who might be asked to give more than he has given in the past. If there is upside to be found in this mix, it'll come from Mills and/or Alzolay. Depth is lacking.

26. Pittsburgh Pirates

Average game score: 46.3 | Game score wins: 69

Projected rotation by starts made:

If you're scratching your head, trying to figure out just who in the heck those pitchers slated for the Pittsburgh rotation are, you're not alone. The 2019 Pirates -- remember 2019? -- rostered Brault and Keller but also now-departed veterans such as Musgrove, Trevor Williams, Taillon, Archer and Lyles. The teardown has been rapid and extreme, and we won't be able to judge the results for several years. For now, Pirates fans can hope that Keller, Brault and 2020 rookie Brubaker find their collective foot and start the process of establishing a foundation for Pirates staffs of the future.

27. San Francisco Giants

Average game score: 46.0 | Game score wins: 68

Projected rotation by starts made:

The system doesn't love the Giants' rotation right now, but I suspect this is a moderate underrating of the San Francisco staff. The new Giants regime has done good work resuscitating veterans, and that's been true for both pitchers and hitters. Gausman is the prime example of that on the pitching side, and his decision to re-up with the Giants over the winter speaks well of the culture that's under construction. Cueto is another year removed from surgery and he too could be underrated by this projection. Also, Wood and DeSclafani are new to the program. On one hand, you want to point to that as a reason they might be in for some surprise improvement. On the other hand, they came over from the Dodgers and Reds, respectively, two clubs that have advanced pitching programs in place. Chances are this will be a capable, if unspectacular, Giants rotation.

28. Seattle Mariners

Average game score: 45.9 | Game score wins: 68

Projected rotation by starts made:

1. Marco Gonzales (GSc: 51.2 | GSc W-L: 18-16)
2. Yusei Kikuchi (GSc: 45.7 | GSc W-L: 12-17)
3. Justus Sheffield (GSc: 47.8 | GSc W-L: 13-16)
4. Justin Dunn (GSc: 42.2 | GSc W-L: 8-16)
5. Ljay Newsome (GSc: 41.9 | GSc W-L: 5-10)
6. Nick Margevicius (GSc: 42.9 | GSc W-L: 5-10)
Others: Chris Flexen, Logan Gilbert

Mariners exec Jerry Dipoto said over the winter that Seattle will deploy a six-pitcher rotation in 2021. Because of workload anxieties over the shortened 2020 season, we'll probably see a lot of that sort of thing at various times across the majors during the next few months. Dipoto has added that his motivation isn't just to save innings but also to provide extra developmental days for young starters such as Sheffield, Dunn and Gilbert. It's an approach that makes sense on paper, especially for a team not expected to be ready for contention this season. In any event, it's an experiment worth following, both for its effects this season and in the years to come -- when those young pitchers are asked to carry heavier workloads.

29. Texas Rangers

Average game score: 45.3 | Game score wins: 66

Projected rotation by starts made:

Dealing away Lynn over the winter was rough, but given Texas' timeline, it probably had to be done -- and, in reality, was probably done too late. Still, in Dunning, Rangers fans will get an immediate look at Lynn's replacement, and they might well like what they see. One pitcher to keep an eye on during spring training is the former Brave, Foltynewicz, who has had some high-level success during a major league career that also has been marked by wild inconsistency. He has a big arm, or used to have a big arm, but his metrics showed a stunning downward trajectory in 2020, albeit in a small sample size. If his stuff is back, we should know pretty quickly, and a resurgent Foltynewicz is a pitcher whom the Rangers could flip when trade season arrives.

30. Baltimore Orioles

Average game score: 44.4 | Game score wins: 63

Projected rotation by starts made:

Means slots as Baltimore's No. 1 starter, and he is the one pitcher on staff who projects as an average or better hurler. He is not really the guy who would be the No. 1 starter for a contending team, but that's not really his fault. The presence of Hernandez in camp will send some attention the Orioles' way, but there is no real reason to think he'll help the team; over his past 50 starts, his average game score is 44.3. That average, weighted for recency, is 41.5. Beyond that, Orioles fans will join the Pirates faithful in hoping the young starters who should get a shot this season start to lay roots. Kremer, Akin, Zimmermann, Baumann and Lowther all fall into this category.