When you think of the most obvious, traditional trade deadline deal, chances are it involves a closer on a noncontender moving to a contender that has a back-of-the-bullpen hole to fill. For the noncontender, it's a matter of trading a luxury item -- in the form of low-stakes, present value -- in exchange for what you hope will be higher-stakes value down the road. For the contender, it's a finishing-piece kind of move.
In that way, the deal Saturday in which the San Diego Padres picked up closer Trevor Rosenthal from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for outfielder Edward Olivares and a player to be named later is a pretty normal-looking trade in what is just about the most abnormal trade deadline in a generation.
Rosenthal is a successful reclamation project for the Royals, who picked him up on a minor league deal over the winter. He's a Kansas City native who had his best seasons in St. Louis while pitching there for first-year Royals manager Mike Matheny. While Rosenthal never actually got to pitch in front of his hometown fans this season, he saved seven games for K.C. while posting strikeout rates right out of his salad days with the Cardinals. The underlying metrics underscored his improvement over a horrific 2019, with velocities as strong as ever and improved spin rates, according to StatCast data. Most importantly, while Rosenthal can still be a bit of a high-wire act, he at least no longer looks like a more erratic version of Steve Dalkowski, as he did last year when he walked 26 batters in 15⅓ innings.
Rosenthal will attempt to fill the void opened up by a season-ending elbow injury suffered by all-world Padres fireman Kirby Yates. The San Diego relief staff projected to be one of baseball's best entering the season, with Yates holding down the back end one season after he saved 41 games with a 1.19 ERA. Even before he went on the injured list, Yates struggled, and the rest of the bullpen pecking order was thrown into minor chaos. For the season, San Diego relievers rank 24th in ERA, 20th in fWAR and 22nd in win probability added, per FanGraphs. Not exactly a championship performance.
The high-leverage opportunities in lieu of Yates have been handled by a committee of veterans that has included righties Emilio Pagan and Craig Stammen, along with recently ailing lefty Drew Pomeranz, who returned from the IL on Saturday. Pomeranz was dynamic before he went on the IL, and if his shoulder injury proves to be a blip and Rosenthal can hold down the ninth, Pomeranz has the versatility to give the Padres something like what the Brewers have gotten from Josh Hader in recent seasons (at least in terms of role if not actual results). But if Rosenthal can successfully play the part of Yates as an understudy unexpectedly called to center stage, then manager Jayce Tingler can deploy his bullpen after the fashion by which it was designed (with Yates holding down the ninth inning).
This matters, because after being a popular sleeper pick during the eternal offseason of 2019-20, the Padres' rebuild is fully awake. While the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers seem to be lined up for yet another NL West title, in a league that could feature three sub-.500 playoff teams San Diego is well positioned to land a No. 4 seed in this year's expanded playoff. And things being as they are, there is no difference between being a division champ and a 4-seed.
Still, discussion of seeding is less important for San Diego than discussion of how they match up in a short series. The Padres will need Rosenthal, who has a career 0.69 postseason ERA over 23 outings -- including 4⅔ scoreless frames in the 2013 World Series -- to help bring the bullpen into focus. San Diego also helped its offensive depth by acquiring first baseman Mitch Moreland from Boston as well as catchers Austin Nola from Seattle and Jason Castro from the Angels. But over the next couple of days, the big step for Padres general manager A.J. Preller is to win a crowded race for a potential Game 1-type starter.
That's not to say Chris Paddack or Dinelson Lamet couldn't handle a Game 1 turn -- both clearly could. But how daunting would the Padres look if, say, they lined up at the start of a series with Lance Lynn, Paddack and Lamet?
In Olivares, the Padres parted with a midlevel prospect who has tools but is unpolished, which makes him a very Royals kind of pickup. As in the preseason deal in which San Diego shipped Franchy Cordero to Kansas City with righty Ronald Bolanos in exchange for lefty Tim Hill, Preller is exchanging spare talent for low-cost, short-term help at the big league level. He'll have to up the ante to win the race for the Rangers' Lynn or another starter who appears to be on the market, such as the Los Angeles Angels' Dylan Bundy or the Arizona Diamondbacks' Robbie Ray. Lynn has another year left on his contract, Bundy has one more year of arbitration eligibility and Ray is in a walk year. Adjust your trade asking price accordingly.
San Diego has one of baseball's deepest prospect lists, so when it comes to matching the offers of other buyers, it's less a matter of means than will. The question for the Friars, and all the teams pursuing these arms: How all-in will you go in a season with a 16-team playoff and, possibly, no home-field advantage once you do get to October?
How Preller and the Padres handle the next couple of days, especially now that their biggest need has been addressed, will tell us a lot about how this season's weird structures are viewed by front offices across the game.