Before we head into the stretch run of the abbreviated 2020 Major League Baseball season, contenders will have one last chance to help themselves at this year's MLB trade deadline on Aug. 31. Each day as we count down to the deadline, our panel of MLB experts will weigh in on the key questions facing teams and players before their chance to make a move passes.
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These are the topics our panel has hit so far (click the links or scroll down to see the answers):
What is your boldest MLB trade deadline day prediction?
Bradford Doolittle: The Rangers will deal Lance Lynn. Lynn would be the biggest get for any team looking to make a deadline splash, and when you consider where the Rangers are in the big picture, it seems like the crowded market for him will spur some contender to give Texas what it wants. Lynn is an October Game 1 starter who is absolutely at the top of his game and has another year left on his deal after this one.
David Schoenfield: The Padres, having already added Trevor Rosenthal, Mitch Moreland, Austin Nola and Jason Castro, go all-in and acquire Clevinger from the Indians for rookie pitcher Luis Patino and first baseman/outfielder Josh Naylor. Editor's note: Schoenfield got both Clevinger to the Padres and Naylor going to Cleveland right!
Dan Mullen: Joey Gallo goes to the Rays as the biggest hitter to move at the deadline. Tampa Bay is a legitimate World Series threat and Gallo could be an October difference-maker in that lineup with versatility that fits very well with the Rays -- and Tampa Bay has no shortage of prospects who could make a deal worth it for Texas.
Alden Gonzalez: The Texas Rangers will move Gallo. The price is said to be steep, but I now believe, given the activity that took place on Sunday and the conversations that were had all week, that somebody will meet it. The Rangers ended the week with the worst run-differential in baseball and are not on a path to contend any time soon. They need to take advantage of what is clearly a buyers' market at this point, and parting with Gallo, who is controllable through the 2022 season, could be their best opportunity. His value might only decline in the offseason if he keeps slumping like this.
Which team has the toughest decision to make before the deadline?
Bradford Doolittle: The Reds have been underwhelming, and in Trevor Bauer, they have a player who fills a need for pretty much every contender out there, will be a free agent after the season and is at the absolute top of his craft right now. Cincinnati isn't going to fall out of the race in a 16-team playoff field by the end of August. Everything the Reds have done since the end of last season screams "all-in"! Yet if their read is that, one, Bauer is unlikely to stay around and, two, the roster isn't coming together as envisioned, they could move him. It's not like he's a career Red the fans will weep for when he's gone. A team such as the Padres could offer some decent future value. But again, isn't this the season you've been building up for?
David Schoenfield: It should be an interesting couple of days for Brian Cashman. The Yankees are suddenly trailing the Rays. They're going to be playing a lot of doubleheaders to make up for postponed games. James Paxton is hurt, so they could use another starting pitcher. They could trade some of their position player depth - except Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge are all injured at the moment, so they need guys like Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar, who might otherwise be trade bait -- and there might not be a starting pitcher out there worth a Frazier or Andujar anyway.
Alden Gonzalez: The Giants. They entered Friday only three games below .500 and a half-game back of the eighth seed in the National League. Their roster is not good enough to contend in a traditional 162-game season, of course. But can they stay in the hunt for one more month, then make some noise in a few of the short series that will make up October? Certainly. And so, for the second consecutive year, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi might have a difficult decision on his hands. Last year, for what marked Bruce Bochy's final season as manager, Zaidi held back on trading his most coveted assets. This year, he might have second thoughts about dealing Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto.
Jesse Rogers: Take your pick of NL East underachievers among the Phillies, the Nationals and the Mets. Do any of them go for it, or do they try to retool for 2021? The problem with the Mets and Phillies is that they are seemingly always retooling. One of these years, they need to go for it.
Sam Miller: Any team that's thinking of waving the white flag this season. A GM has to really be considering the challenge of holding together the clubhouse right now -- with the extra stresses of the pandemic, of the social isolation and of the COVID-19 protocols - if the message from the front office is "we quit." And, again, giving up is not the obvious choice for any teams, except maybe the Mariners and Pirates. Even the last-place teams are a 9-1 run from being in the playoffs.
Buster Olney: The Astros because it's clear that to win this year, they'll need to add pitching to backfill all of the injuries they've suffered. But on the other hand, Oakland is in a dominant position in the standings, and with Houston facing so many possible departures of veteran free agents over the next two years -- from George Springer to Michael Brantley to Zack Greinke -- the Astros will soon need to focus on fostering younger players.
Who is one under-the-radar name to watch?
Bradford Doolittle: Giants starter Kevin Gausman seems as if he's always vacillating between really good and really bad, though this season, he's somewhere between. His stuff looks terrific, and he is commanding it better than ever, with his strikeouts occurring seven times more frequently than his walks. There is a huge disparity between Gausman's ERA and his underlying numbers, both traditional measures and StatCast-level stuff. The Giants are rebuilding, his contract expires after the season, he doesn't make a ton of money anyway, and lots of contenders could use a starter. This is a guy who could really impact the race for the title, depending on where he might land.
Jesse Rogers: Tony Watson. He has been great for most of his career, and he's off to another good start. Good, left-handed relief is as needed as ever. Watson qualifies. He can get both lefties and righties out, which is important more than ever with the three-batter minimum.
Sam Miller: A trade is not likely, but I have an eye out for Robinson Cano rumors. He has been great again this year (in a handful of games), he could help a bunch of contending teams, and because a trade involving him would be mostly a financial transaction - one team agreeing to pay a bunch of his remaining contract, another team removing itself from that promise - it could be simpler to put together than a trade involving a bunch of unscoutable prospects.
Buster Olney: The Angels' Dylan Bundy, who, at age 27, appears to have put everything together. Odds are that the Angels, whose great and desperate need in recent years has been starting pitching, will keep Bundy, who will become eligible for free agency after the 2021 season. But Bundy is having his best season, and the Angels, seemingly out of contention, should be open-minded about taking advantage of Bundy's current value.
David Schoenfield: Let's go for a long shot. With several teams in need of a closer, what if the Brewers shopped around Josh Hader? He isn't making big money, an important factor for any trade this year. He has three more years of team control, which makes him an extremely valuable trade commodity (and valuable to the Brewers as well). It's possible that the Brewers' 2017-19 window of contention has expired, and given that they have one of the weakest farm systems in the game, they could use some young talent and a bit of a reload. Plus, you can always find relievers, right?
Joon Lee: Jackie Bradley Jr. is as streaky at the plate as a former All-Star can get, but when he gets hot, he gets really hot. The Red Sox center fielder certainly hasn't been lighting it up at the plate this season, hitting .235/.300/.358, but combine his stellar outfield defense, positive clubhouse influence and his postseason experience, could be worth a gamble for a team on the playoff bubble looking for an outfield upgrade.
What is one trade you would make before the deadline?
Bradford Doolittle: I'd like to trade my apartment for a Lake Michigan-friendly yacht I can live on. Oh, we're doing baseball? Well, the Padres should push for someone such as free-agent-to-be Pirates reliever Keone Kela to take over the void opened by Kirby Yates' injury. The bullpen as a group has been disappointing, but it projected well -- with Yates holding down the back end. If the rest of the staff falls into place, having Kela would allow the Pads to operate as they were designed. San Diego is a good, fun team, and you'd hate to see it undermined by high-leverage failures. Surely the Padres have enough swappable young players hanging around their alternate site to match up with the Pirates.
Alden Gonzalez: It'd be fun to put Trevor Bauer on the Dodgers. Given the life that has returned to Clayton Kershaw's fastball and the way Walker Buehler has looked lately, it would give them a dominant rotation, the one area that was somewhat lacking heading into this season. Combine it with that lineup and a bullpen that looks especially deep, and you'd have one of the most talented, deepest teams in baseball history -- for a two-month stretch to end the weirdest season ever. Wouldn't that be fun?
Jesse Rogers: Let's put Nolan Arenado on the Yankees and make their offense injury-proof. The Rockies are fading, which means Arenado is not happy. He wasn't before the season. Nothing this team has done is going to change that. But a move to N.Y.? Arenado would drive himself there. Don't ask me what New York has to give up in return to get him, but the Yankees have pulled a few good ones over the years. With Arenado, the Yankees would be set for this season and many, many to come.
Sam Miller: Send Brandon Belt across the Bay to the A's. That's minimal disruption to anybody's life, the A's get a DH (in case Khris Davis doesn't come out of this slump or to platoon with Davis), Oakland's mostly righty lineup gets some balance, and Giants president Farhan Zaidi gets to catch up with his old pals in Oakland.
Buster Olney: Mike Clevinger to the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays or some other contender for prospects. Teams have struggled in this trade period to define value - and this is part of the reason the Indians probably won't move Francisco Lindor before the offseason. But Clevinger could be an outlier because he could be difference-making to his next team in this weird 2020 season, as well as in 2021 and 2022. The Indians have a relative wealth of starting pitching, Clevinger turns 30 this winter, and of course, the recent health and safety protocol drama demonstrated that teammates don't think Clevinger's presence is absolutely necessary.
David Schoenfield: Bauer to the Dodgers is a really fun idea, but I don't think the Reds are going to punt on 2021. I'll jump on Buster's idea of Clevinger to the Dodgers. Look, they're the overwhelming favorite to win the NL with or without him, and he had some strike-throwing issues in his three starts before Cleveland sent him down for violating protocol, but there's a match here with L.A.'s offensive excess (Keibert Ruiz, Edwin Rios, Joc Pederson) and bullpen excess (Dennis Santana, Mitch White, Caleb Ferguson) to deal from. The 2019 version of Clevinger projects as the No. 3 playoff starter behind Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw (or even ahead of Kershaw).
Who are three teams who should be deadline buyers?
Bradford Doolittle: The Cubs need bullpen help, more for navigating the playoff bracket than for getting into it in the first place. I don't see them piecing things together for a deep October run as things stand, especially because it's difficult to see any of their starters morphing into a playoff super-swing role, like the Nationals had in 2019.
It doesn't look like the Braves can count on filling out their rotation from within, so that's a huge need for a leading contender. And the Athletics need to acquire a quality second baseman.
Alden Gonzalez: The easy choice here is the Yankees, who are really good but are once again dealing with a ton of injuries. They're on the lookout for middle infielders, catching depth and as many quality arms for the rotation or the bullpen as they can find. The Nationals could use a fill-in for their rotation now that Stephen Strasburg has been lost for the year and could stand to add some bullpen help. Then there are the Astros, who are without their ace (Justin Verlander) and their closer (Roberto Osuna) yet are right in the thick of it.
Jesse Rogers: There's little doubt that the Yankees will bolster their roster after experiencing a rash of injuries. They're easy buyers. There are plenty of good choices after that. For example, the NL Central is there for the taking, despite Chicago's lead in the division, so perhaps who's most aggressive at the deadline will make a big difference. Milwaukee could use a starter, and the Cubs and Reds could use relievers.
In the NL West, the Padres seem like a team that will go for it in whatever way that means this season, so let's say the Padres and Reds are two clear buyers -- with the Cubs and Brewers not far behind.
Sam Miller: The Phillies, Rockies and Reds probably have the most to gain from improving right now. All are on the playoff bubble, and all could plausibly win the World Series if they make it to the playoffs. That's true of pretty much every bubble team, but the Phillies, Rockies and Reds in particular could rewrite their franchise trajectories from relative failure (or, at best, mediocrity) to relative greatness. The Phillies could justify the painful (and thus far failed) rebuilding process they went through from 2015 to 2017; the Rockies could win the first title in franchise history; and the Reds could put their six-year run of fourth- and fifth-place finishes behind them. It helps that these teams all have clear areas to upgrade: the Phillies and Reds in the bullpen, the Rockies at catcher and DH.
Buster Olney: The Dodgers need to win a championship and end the streak of 32 years without a title, so if adding payroll or surrendering prospects means acquiring a Mike Clevinger, they should make that happen.
The White Sox spent big on Yasmani Grandal and Jose Abreu and invested in young players - and if they can find another pitcher or two to augment what is a good team, they should spend because their window for success is open.
The Mets are in the midst of being sold, and if they were to reach the postseason with the typical big-market pomp and circumstance, it would only enhance their appearance as a valued asset. The Mets have their problems, but the NL East is wide-open.
David Schoenfield: (1) Reds. If they can squeeze into the playoffs, a rotation with Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo can mirror what Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin did in October. But the Reds need bullpen help, and the offense has been a big disappointment. (2) Braves. Rotation help and maybe third base (Kyle Seager?). (3) Indians. Their advantage is they have one thing that isn't really otherwise available: starting pitching. The offense needs help, of course, and given that the Yankees/Twins/A's/Astros/Rays are all good but flawed, Cleveland should go all-in to try to make 2020 the year its World Series drought -- 1948 -- finally ends.
Joon Lee: The Dodgers have perhaps the most talented roster on paper in baseball, and their record so far during this truncated season certainly reflects that. There's less of a desperation of "win now" given that the team locked in Mookie Betts to a long-term contract, but given the team's struggle to win a World Series despite being one of the best teams annually during the Kershaw era of Dodgers baseball, the team needs to do everything possible to bolster the pitching on the roster, both in the rotation and the bullpen.
The White Sox also present an interesting case in the American League, with many of their young, talented players (between Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez) blossoming this season. This is a team that should be a force to reckon with in the seasons to come, but they could be a threat for the title amidst a chaotic season right now with a couple of moves to bolster the team's pitching corps.
Who are three teams that should be trade deadline sellers?
Bradford Doolittle: The Red Sox are and should be. What a mess. The Mariners have a rare duality going in that they are terrible, yet they have some veterans who fit on other teams - if the money can be worked out. The Pirates should sell everything that is not fastened down, which spares the ballpark and the Clemente Bridge.
Buster Olney: The Royals, who have a nice array of pitchers (Trevor Rosenthal, Greg Holland, Matt Harvey) who might glean value in deals; the Orioles, who've had a surprising showing in 2020 but whose only real chance to make the postseason is as a No. 7 or No. 8 seed; and the Pirates, who have starting pitchers such as Trevor Williams who are attractive to other teams.
Alden Gonzalez: The Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Mariners, Pirates, Marlins and Giants -- teams that were rebuilding heading into this season and will probably continue to fade in the second half -- are obvious choices. But those clubs are also mostly lacking in difference-making major leaguers.
The teams that should really be selling are the Red Sox, Angels and Reds, who could use this as an opportunity to retool faster. It'd be hard to imagine Xander Bogaerts or Rafael Devers going anywhere this year, but Kevin Pillar and perhaps even Christian Vazquez -- if the return is right, of course -- could produce some nice pieces. The Angels could use one of their infielders -- Tommy La Stella, Luis Rengifo, perhaps even David Fletcher -- to bolster a needy pitching staff for 2021. The Reds could capitalize on an opportunity to trade this year's best starting pitcher, Trevor Bauer, and could always re-sign him in the offseason.
Sam Miller: I might go so far as to say none should. Most trade deadline deals are veterans for prospects, but at this point, most scouting on prospects is out of date, and player development programs have stalled. If I were a team trying to rebuild with prospects right now, I'd be very aware of how blindly I'd be plucking. Furthermore, no team (as of Sunday) is more than 5 1/2 games out of the playoffs, which is to say that no team is more than 10 good games from being in a playoff spot,; and few struggling teams with anything to trade -- such as the Red Sox or the Angels -- have had enough time to say that this is their true talent level. (The Nationals were 13-17 after 30 games last year.)
Finally, there's this: Quitting on this season -- and shipping players to new bubbles in the middle of a pandemic -- feels like a violations of a social contract. Team management asked players to risk a lot -- and even sacrifice a lot -- to play for them this season. Uprooting players in the middle of all of this stinks.
Jesse Rogers: San Francisco is a scrappy team and could accelerate its retool with the right move or two at the deadline. Their pitching staff provides an opportunity for some deals, as Johnny Cueto, Tony Watson, Trevor Cahill and even Drew Smyly all have experience other teams could covet. The division is too tough for the Giants to compete this year. Same goes for the Diamondbacks, who were hoping to get a boost from Madison Bumgarner. That didn't happen. Arizona could use a quick retool as well.
Texas had some hopes for this season, but the Rangers aren't on the verge of being an elite team. As with the two NL teams, they don't need a teardown as much as a retool. Building back up for their first full year in their new ballpark -- with fans -- might be the way to go for the Rangers.
David Schoenfield: For many teams, it might come down to this: Is trying to win the seventh or eighth seed and playing the Dodgers or Yankees or Twins worth making a deal for? Or worth NOT making a deal?
Should the Giants be shopping Kevin Gausman or looking to add? Sure, the Red Sox, who already traded two relievers, might have more deals to make (Mitch Moreland, Kevin Pillar, Jackie Bradley Jr., Matt Barnes), but otherwise ... I don't know. The Mariners and Pirates and Angels will look to deal, but don't really have any impact players to trade (Seattle could offer Kyle Seager, but he has a big salary for 2021). I don't think the Angels will trade Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon or Shohei Ohtani -- but Andrelton Simmons is a soon-to-be free agent.
The biggest name who could move before the deadline?
Bradford Doolittle: In a season in which I don't think it makes sense for big names to move around, even those on expiring deals, things seem to be lining up for Mike Clevinger to be dealt away from Cleveland. That's especially true with prospect Triston McKenzie getting the call to make his debut over the weekend. The Indians always seem to churn starters out of their farm system and, let's be honest, in terms of some uninspiring metrics from StatCast, Clevinger looks expendable. Yet his results should mean his stock around baseball is high enough to bring back some kind of impactful help for the Indians' outfield.
Buster Olney: It's worth watching Clevinger. Cleveland talked with the Dodgers last winter about the talented right-hander, and even in a depressed trade market, Clevinger has clear value that could be difference-making this year to a team like L.A., the Padres or the Yankees. He'll turn 30 years old in December and he's likely to get a big raise through arbitration after this season; his value will never be higher than it is right now, because the team that acquires him would know they'd get him for the rest of 2020, '21 and '22. The Indians would have enough rotation depth to withstand his departure, and could maximize possible return now.
Alden Gonzalez: Trevor Rosenthal. He's probably not the biggest name, but high-profile trades might be hard to come by given the circumstances. The 30-year-old right-hander is far enough removed from Tommy John surgery that he's starting to resemble his old self this season. His fastball and his slider are playing up, his contract is expiring, and he's successfully closing games for a Royals team that has no plans of contending this season. It's the perfect recipe for a trade.
Dan Mullen: Johnny Cueto might be a bigger name from what he's done in the past than for who he is now, but he's exactly the kind of player who should have value as contenders look to cover innings in a season filled with starting pitcher injuries. Cueto's 4.35 ERA this season is actually better than it looks when you consider five of his six 2020 starts consist of facing the Dodgers twice, the A's, the Padres and the Rockies at Coors Field. The big question is how much of the hefty remaining sum of Cueto's contract will San Francisco be willing to eat while hanging on the fringe of the expanded playoff picture.
Jesse Rogers: Archie Bradley. Closers are always in high demand at the deadline and this year should be no different. The Diamondbacks have some talent, but their slow start puts them in a position to sell. Bradley's contract status actually makes him the perfect candidate, as he still has another year left before reaching free agency. One-month rentals are tough to gauge, but a year and a month could bring back a decent prospect or two. And Bradley doesn't have to close -- he might make a great setup man for a team like the Padres or Reds.