One baseball-related consequence of the COVID-19 crisis is that the approaching trade deadline has more uncertainty than any deadline that has come before -- so much uncertainty, in fact, that as the end-of-the-month deadline creeps closer, our traditional dichotomy of "buyer" and "seller" doesn't seem to hold up. Instead, as you apply all the factors of uncertainty to possible deals, you come away thinking that the likely outcome of this year's deadline will be complete transactional paralysis.
Does that mean we won't see any trades? That could turn out to be exactly what happens, beyond the inevitable bottom-of-the-roster swap or two. Still, a trade market like this could present opportunities for an enterprising general manager, especially if he is backed by an owner who isn't scared stiff by the ugly financial fallout from the pandemic. In other words, maybe we will be pleasantly surprised by a splashy trade or two, even if matching up clubs right now inspires a bout of vertigo.
Never have there been so many obstacles to making a deal:
Teams don't have cash, which means taking on a contract with any money on it beyond this season might not appeal to a club's owner.
The flip side of that is another barrier: Any prospect who might help another club is hard to part with, because he might help your team in the short term -- even if that isn't until next season -- while making the big league minimum.
The pool of buyers is expanded because as many as 20 to 25 clubs might be part of this year's version of a race deep into the season.
The expanded playoff format -- especially if it is played in a bubble that kills whatever home-field advantage that currently exists -- will be so overcome with randomness that there is little point in a team sacrificing a prospect for a short-term roster injection.
You can trade only players who are part of each club's 60-man pool, so the off-the-radar or younger prospects that teams might ordinarily take a flier on can't be moved.
Scouts are not currently allowed to attend games in person, so all assessments have to be done based on video and existing notes.
And then there is the larger issue: Should players be traded under these conditions, forcing them to move to an unfamiliar city?
Are there any conditions in which teams could match up? Maybe.
So now that you're completely uninspired by this outlook on the trade season, let's get into some team-specific issues by examining positional needs for contending clubs. These "holes" have been flagged if they meet three criteria:
1. The team ranks in the bottom half of the majors at the position by wins above average at baseball-reference.com (through games played on Monday).
2. The team projected to finish in the bottom half at that position, according to my forecasts.
3. The team currently has at least a 1-in-3 shot at the playoffs, according to my latest run of simulations. There are currently 20 such teams.
We'll work through this by position, first noting some players who might be available in the acquisition market, or at least would be if this year's context wasn't such a through-the-looking-glass exercise. These are mostly players with expiring contracts. Some are veterans toiling for non-contenders -- insofar as any team is a non-contender in 2020 -- and others are simply names that have cropped up in recent whisper-mill reporting.
Jump to: Reliever | Catcher | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH
STARTING PITCHER
Possible solutions: Chase Anderson, Matthew Boyd, Johnny Cueto, Kevin Gausman, Mike Minor, Martin Perez, Jose Quintana, Robbie Ray, Jeff Samardzija, Drew Smyly, Michael Wacha, Taijuan Walker, Jordan Yamamoto
Overview: The quartet of Giants starters on the list is tantalizing, especially Gausman, whose stuff has been outstanding and who is finishing up an expiring deal. Cueto has been impressive but is expensive. As for Quintana, it's an out-of-the-box notion for a Cubs team that probably can't squander any rotation depth, especially with Tyler Chatwood ailing, but one that needs to bolster the bullpen.
Teams with holes
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles rank 20th in rotation wins above average. This is actually good news: My system ranked Baltimore dead last in the forecasts. This season is found money for the O's. Don't expect them to turn aggressive at the deadline. And if the bullpen keeps going as well as it has, manager Brandon Hyde can expand the innings of that group later in the season if Baltimore continues to hover in contention for a playoff slot.
Chicago White Sox: Early on, the White Sox have had three-fifths of a capable rotation in Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel and, mainly, Dylan Cease. The White Sox can keep running Gio Gonzalez out there as well and could do worse. You just wonder whether Chicago could come up with a better solution than a return to health of erratic Reynaldo Lopez. Gausman, in particular, seems like a great fit, but it's unlikely the Sox would part with much to get him.
One unusual trade chip the White Sox have is catcher James McCann, a free agent after the season who carries outsized value in a catching-starved marketplace. However, catcher is one area where the Giants are well situated for the foreseeable future. Chances are the Sox will work from within, hoping one or both of Lopez and Carlos Rodon becomes healthy and consistent. Otherwise, they'll probably mix and match with openers and piggyback options.
Oakland Athletics: The Athletics, as expected, have one of baseball's best bullpens. The rotation has been a mixed bag, but Oakland always seems to fix this area as the season goes along. Of course, the A's usually have more time to do so than they will get in this 60-game sprint. Oakland will likely muddle along and hope that Sean Manaea gets going, and to that end, he did pick up velocity in his most recent outings.
The A's probably won't take on much money and always seem to have internal options. If Oakland makes a deal, it's hard to imagine it will be to address the rotation. But finding a fourth reliable starter to go with Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo and Chris Bassitt is an important task for a club good enough to win it all.
RELIEVER
Possible solutions: Ken Giles, Mychal Givens, Heath Hembree, Greg Holland, Joe Jimenez, Keone Kela, Ian Kennedy, Brandon Kintzler, Richard Rodriguez, Trevor Rosenthal, Chris Stratton, Tony Watson, Brandon Workman
Overview: If there is a traditional deadline splash, it seems like it will involve one of these names. In Rosenthal, Jimenez, Kela, Kintzler and Workman, there are intriguing options for any team that feels it has to have a closer. Giles would be on that list too, but his health is a concern, and the Blue Jays likely plan to get into the group of contenders.
Teams with holes
Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks' rotation ranks 25th in the majors, a problem exacerbated by a so-so bullpen. Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen have combined for eight quality starts in nine outings. Unfortunately, those are the only quality starts the D-backs have gotten so far.
This is unlikely to be an area that Mike Hazen targets in a trade. Madison Bumgarner's stuff was way down early on, but at least there is hope that his ailing back was the cause. Robbie Ray has struggled, but his best start was his last. If those two get going, the Diamondbacks can narrow their rotation focus to the fifth spot. They can hope Luke Weaver overcomes a terrible start, or they could turn to Alex Young, who has thrown the ball well this season. All of this is crucial for the D-backs, because shoring up the bullpen needs to be how Arizona cashes in any of its trade pieces. When they are still running Hector Rondon out there in leverage situations, it's a problem.
Chicago Cubs: Craig Kimbrel still feels like the key to all of this. Jeremy Jeffress has been a godsend, but the Cubs need more arms to keep from burning through him before we get to October.
Chicago White Sox: The ChiSox have gotten revelatory work from Matt Foster, who has a 15:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 10⅔ scoreless innings. He has started two games as an opener. He and lefty Ross Detwiler give Rick Renteria two swing-man-type relievers to help bridge the gap to the back of the bullpen. There, Chicago has to figure out how to set up Alex Colome. Aaron Bummer is out with a biceps strain, which complicates matters. But as long as the White Sox can stay .500 or better, they can hope to figure out a high-leverage pecking order from within, especially if veteran Steve Cishek can find his form. Still, you would like to see Chicago add another power arm to this mix.
San Diego Padres: The Pads' metrics don't meet our criteria for being listed here, but obviously their relief-pitching outlook is altered by Kirby Yates' injury, so we'll address them. San Diego seems like a good candidate to go after someone like Workman, Kela or Jimenez, and the Pads have the depth of young talent to get something done, even with teams limited to their 60-player pools.
CATCHER
Possible solutions: James McCann, Russell Martin, Tom Murphy, Austin Nola
Overview: As mentioned, the obvious trade targets are slim at the catching position, and McCann is a bit of an out-of-the-box consideration. For one, he's a good player, even if he's blocked by Yasmani Grandal for every-day duty. Then there is his role as a clubhouse leader and the fact that the White Sox are trying to win. Still, given the long list of contending teams who aren't putting up great metrics at this spot, a surplus-for-surplus deal seems plausible. Nola and Murphy, who is currently on the IL, are on the list simply because they are good players on a bad team. Nola's positional versatility gives him added value. Martin is a free agent.
Teams with holes
Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are likely content with their Tucker Barnhart/Curt Casali combo and have already seen promising Tyler Stephenson make his MLB debut this season. Hard to see the Reds making a McCann-level splash at this spot, if only because matching them up with the White Sox doesn't yield any obvious deals.
Cleveland Indians: With Roberto Perez returning this week, the Indians should be fine, even if hopes for him to repeat his breakout 2019 offensive season might be a bit unrealistic. Still, if the Indians are going to add to this roster, they have bigger holes to address.
Colorado Rockies: According to FanGraphs, over the past decade, Colorado catchers have put up a collective minus-0.8 fWAR, the only team with below-replacement performance at the position. It's a persistent sore spot, and so far in 2020, the surprising Rockies are at it again, with a minus-0.5 catcher fWAR that ranks dead last. Adding a backstop of McCann's quality and pushing Tony Wolters down a rung on the depth chart would be huge. But you wouldn't think the White Sox are going to move McCann for future value, so it's a matter of Colorado coming up with the kind of bullpen arms that Rick Hahn needs. It's hard to see a match between these clubs. Martin seems like a possible fit.
San Diego Padres: If we assume the Padres are right that Austin Hedges' defense really does justify playing him as often as Francisco Mejia, then the Pads are likely happy with what they have. And given the complications involving this year's trade market, if San Diego is going to make a push at a position, it will be to fill the hole opened by the injury to Yates.
Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays rank 29th in catcher WAR at both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. They have the pitching depth to get something done with Chicago too. Something between the Rays and White Sox makes sense on paper, but that doesn't mean it'll happen. Again, it's 2020.
Texas Rangers: A nominal playoff contender, the Rangers aren't likely to make a splashy move for a win-now player like McCann.
FIRST BASE
Possible solutions: Josh Bell, Mitch Moreland, Travis Shaw
Overview: First-base trade candidates are also DH trade candidates. Just something to keep in mind.
Teams with holes
Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks are a mild surprise to be on this list. But they'll go with Christian Walker and Kevin Cron rather than adding at this spot, especially given their needs in the bullpen.
Baltimore Orioles: OK. The Orioles' strong start aside, it is probably premature to look at this in-the-throes-of-rebuilding outfit as a deadline buyer. But ... if there is one spot where the marginal upgrade would be most significant, it's first base. After a promising spring that now seems so long ago, Chris Davis has gone back to looking largely helpless at the plate. Nevertheless, it seems more likely that the Orioles will hope he gets hot for a short stretch over the next six weeks rather than adding from the outside.
Milwaukee Brewers: Between the twin bad starts of Ryan Braun and Justin Smoak (26 K's, two walks), first base has been a sinkhole thus far for Milwaukee. Bell is off to a terrible start after his breakout 2019 season, but adding him would bring some considerable pizzazz to the Milwaukee roster. Still, with two years of team control left, the trade cost for Bell might be more than Milwaukee can pay.
SECOND BASE
Possible solutions: Asdrubal Cabrera, Scooter Gennett, Dee Gordon, Tommy La Stella, Whit Merrifield, Jonathan Schoop, Jonathan Villar
Overview: The name that jumps out here is Schoop, an established player on a non-contender having a representative season. Given the injury to Starlin Castro, Cabrera may no longer appear to be a surplus bat for the Nationals. The Angels likely still harbor playoff hopes that can be boosted by LaStella's presence. Everyone always sees Merrifield as a trade candidate except for the Royals. Gennett is a free agent.
Teams with holes
Colorado Rockies: The early results haven't been great, but Colorado mixes it up at this position and still has Brendan Rodgers forever waiting in the wings.
Oakland Athletics: On a roster with few holes, Oakland's plan at second base has been curious ever since the trade that sent Jurickson Profar to the Padres. This is a team that is seemingly made for Schoop.
San Diego Padres: Profar has shown why Oakland was willing to part with him. But now that Eric Hosmer is healthy and back at first base, Jake Cronenworth has gotten more time at the keystone, and that is a better answer than making a trade. The rookie revelation has a .947 OPS that is backed by an expected wOBA of .471, which ranks sixth in the majors. Simply put, he's been killing the ball.
Texas Rangers: Rougned Odor has two more years on his contract after this one. Is there a more frustrating player in the majors to watch?
THIRD BASE
Possible solutions: Kris Bryant, Kyle Seager
Overview: Relax, Cubs fans. It almost certainly won't happen, especially since the Cubs are playing well and a roster shakeup that involves trading Bryant would seem both out of place and tone-deaf. There just aren't many obvious trade targets at third base that would have much impact. Seager is enjoying a resurgent start and, at 32, he's a bit out of step with the Mariners' rebuild. He's also expensive, with $18.5 million on the books for 2021, plus a club option for 2022. The hot corner does not look so hot in this trade marketplace.
Teams with holes
Milwaukee Brewers: Third base has been a hodgepodge so far, with Craig Counsell splitting things up among Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko and Brock Holt. Given the lack of trade options, that's probably how it's going to be at the position for Milwaukee.
Philadelphia Phillies: By calling up rookie powerhouse Alec Bohm, the Phillies have made their move at the hot corner. Bohm bumps Jean Segura to second and sends Scott Kingery back into a utility role. Whether Bohm is ready for an immediate impact is an open question, but this is an exciting development for the Phils.
SHORTSTOP
Possible solutions: Andrelton Simmons, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor
Overview: Obviously, these are way out-of-the-box possibilities. I list Bogaerts and Lindor only because of Ken Rosenthal's latest piece for The Athletic, and I list Simmons only because he's on an expiring deal. Given the lack of realistic options for an every-day shortstop, we'll zip through our contenders who have an apparent hole at the spot.
Teams with holes
Baltimore Orioles: As with the rotation, the Orioles' No. 18 ranking at shortstop is actually good news. I had Baltimore pegged for last. The improvement is driven by the amazing offensive start for Jose Iglesias, who has started about half the games here. The Orioles will hope that continues.
Cincinnati Reds: The Reds might not actually fit the criteria. While they were forecast to rank 29th at shortstop and 17th in wins above average at Baseball Reference, Cincinnati ranks eighth at the position at FanGraphs. The disparity is defense-driven, and if the Reds are happy with Freddy Galvis' efforts with the glove, then they will focus on improving other spots.
Milwaukee Brewers: Luis Urias' season got off to a late start, but early results suggest that Milwaukee will be fine riding his bat at this spot while mixing in Orlando Arcia's glove when needed.
Texas Rangers: The Rangers will live or die at this spot with Elvis Andrus.
LEFT FIELD
Possible solutions: Alex Dickerson, Alex Gordon, Joc Pederson
Overview: Gordon is a five-and-10 guy, but a clause was reportedly added to the contract he signed during the offseason that would allow him to be dealt after June 16. How the unusual season affects that is unclear, but given his ties to Kansas City -- the city and the team -- chances are, if he doesn't want to be traded, he won't be traded. Pederson is intriguing, if only because the Dodgers seemingly had dealt him to the Angels in the offseason. The issue is that L.A. is so good and so deep, what would you be trading him for?
Teams with holes
Given the lack of options at this spot, the story for all the teams who qualified by our "hole" criteria is the same, which is that their internal options will likely supercede any desire to make an acquisition. There were five teams who qualified. Four of them were the Brewers, Orioles, Reds and Rockies. The other one is the ...
Cleveland Indians: Here, we'll cover all three outfield spots for Cleveland. From left field to right, the Indians projected to rank 24th, 25th and 18th in the outfield. So far, they rank 27th, 28th and 27th. It's been worse than we thought, and the situation was brought to the fore this week when Cleveland sent center fielder Oscar Mercado to its alternate-site camp after he posted a .217 OPS over 45 plate appearances to start the season. Given Cleveland's starting pitching depth and the recent controversy surrounding outstanding hurlers Zach Plesac and Mike Clevinger, you have to wonder if there is a move to be made. Perhaps not, but an Indians starter for an outfield bat might be our best hope for a splashy deadline move. And you can't help but wonder if and when they'll make a push for a reunion with Yasiel Puig.
CENTER FIELD
Possible solutions: Jackie Bradley Jr., Jarrod Dyson, JaCoby Jones, Kevin Pillar
Overview: Jones' hot start is probably a mirage, but that shouldn't stop the Tigers from trying to sell high. Beyond that, the others here could fill a need for a team looking to make a defensive upgrade.
Teams with holes
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have watched Austin Hays struggle at the plate with a .519 OPS, but he has played good defense. The best thing for the Orioles, both now and for the future, is to wait for the 24-year-old to return from his rib injury and then, hopefully, begin to show some progress with the stick.
Colorado Rockies: After looking like a budding star last season, David Dahl is off to a .481 OPS start to 2020. You do wonder if one possible avenue for the Rockies is to acquire a glove guy like Dyson or Pillar and move Dahl back over to left field full time. Bud Black has rotated players in left so far.
RIGHT FIELD
Possible solutions: Matt Joyce, Yasiel Puig
Overview: Puig has already tested positive for COVID-19 and, hopefully, recovered. Could that actually boost his value, especially given the number of obstacles in place for trades?
Teams with holes
Arizona Diamondbacks: While Arizona technically meets our criteria to be listed, it's just barely: The Snakes rank 16th in right field, with Kole Calhoun doing a solid job so far. Arizona has bigger question marks.
Chicago White Sox: I have never loved the decision to trade for Nomar Mazara to shore up this position. So far, over just 14 games, he has a .640 OPS and is still hunting for his first Chicago home run. Adam Engel has done enough with the bat to be a positive contributor at this spot against lefties. However, with Leury Garcia out with an injured thumb -- probably for the season -- is it out of the question to make a bid for Puig?
Houston Astros: The Astros are getting by with a pieced-together pitching staff, but if they go outside the organization for help, you'd think it would be for an arm rather than an outfielder. And that would be logical. What's hard to read about the early indicators is that Houston qualifies here because of a dire offensive projection for Josh Reddick. As for the other criteria -- in-season ranking -- the Astros also qualify even though Reddick has hit well. The reason is that the defensive metrics have been poor. That may not be a real concern. So not only are the Astros content with Reddick, but they also have Kyle Tucker ready to step in with Yordan Alvarez out for the season.
St. Louis Cardinals: With Dylan Carlson on the big league roster, the Cardinals have more than enough outfield options. It's a matter of Mike Shildt identifying whom to play and when.
DESIGNATED HITTER
Possible solutions: Miguel Andujar, Shin-Soo Choo, Colin Moran
Overview: Choo will be a free agent, so if Texas falls out of the race over the next couple of weeks -- which won't be easy -- he's a name to watch. So too is Moran, who has had a hot power bat to begin the campaign and is superfluous on the non-contending Pirates, who feature Bell on one corner and soon will have Ke'Bryan Hayes at the other. As for Andujar, well, the Yankees do have a surplus of bats (just ask Clint Frazier), and if the right starting pitcher were to become available, you never know.
Teams with holes
Given the nature of the DH position, where most teams rotate players in and out, we're not going to dive into specific team holes. But among contenders whose production out of that slot has lagged thus far are the Braves, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Padres. Not surprisingly, all are National League clubs.