Every variable MLB contenders must consider at unusual trade deadline

Now we know that the Philadelphia Phillies are all-in in this very strange Major League Baseball season following their Friday deals to make over baseball's worst bullpen. But not all teams are going to be that aggressive after weighing all of the variables that are in play leading up to the Aug. 31 deadline -- many of them unique to 2020.

Some teams -- even good teams likely to be part of the 16-team playoff field and with legitimate chances to win -- are probably going to pass on deals because of one or more of those variables.

This week, front-office executives helped to define a lot of the considerations that are on the table as teams decide whether to do what the Phillies did and expend at least some resources to get better.

Variable No. 1: Do you believe a coronavirus vaccine will be identified and implemented before the 2021 season?

How each team answers this question could have direct bearing on how willing it is to give up value to improve the 2020 team.

"You're probably going to have a lot of teams who are going to play this conservatively," one long-time official said. "Their team has lost money this year, and if there is no vaccine and maybe no fans in the stands in 2021, they might not be willing to take on more debt.

"On the other hand," he continued, "you probably will see a few teams that get aggressive and bet that there is a going to be a vaccine and fans in the stands, and they'll be more comfortable taking on a salary."

Front offices are filled with really smart evaluators of baseball talent. But the most valuable information for club owners before the trade deadline, as teams shape budgets for next season, could be what they know about vaccine research.

2: What will the changing financial landscape look like in 2021?

Some front-office officials and agents assume that there will be a general rollback in some of the salary numbers -- especially for veteran free agents who sign one-year deals -- because of the losses rooted in empty ballparks. But will it be a 5% reduction this year? Will it be 10%? Will it be less than expected?

A lot of this will depend on the financial wherewithal of each ownership group -- because not all MLB checkbooks are created equal. The Blue Jays are one piece of the Rogers Communications world, so they are perceived by folks in the industry as being excellent candidates to take advantage of a depressed trade and free-agent market. The Dodgers and Yankees, obviously, can assume greater risks because they have greater assets. On the other hand, the Marlins are believed by other teams to be in rough financial condition after such a bad year for revenue. Some owners, such as the Phillies' John Middleton, will be prepared to spend; others will not.

3: How important is winning in 2020 to your team?

The Washington Nationals overcame repeated deficits in the regular season and postseason to take their first title, and though Washington could aspire to become the first MLB club to win back-to-back World Series since the 1998-2000 Yankees, there isn't a lot of pressure on the Nationals to win -- especially now that Stephen Strasburg, the World Series MVP, is out for the rest of this season.

The Phillies, on the other hand, have some pressure to win in the second year of their marriage with Bryce Harper, their first year with manager Joe Girardi and their 12th year since their most recent championship. The Dodgers haven't won a World Series in 32 years, and even in the midst of a truncated season, with a title L.A. could finally shift the conversation from Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershiser highlights of 1988 to something their younger fans witnessed.

4: How important is winning in 2020?

Let's face it: For some teams, players and owners, this is a bootleg season that will never bear the kind of success enjoyed over a 162-game journey. That's why a number of players opted out and why there is an assumption among a lot of officials that the enormous number of injuries is probably significantly augmented by players and teams who don't put as much stock in what happens this year as they do in 2021. There might be some players using minor injuries to walk away from these unusual circumstances, and there might be front offices -- especially for bad 2020 teams -- that wouldn't mind if players coping with injuries would prefer to focus on being right for 2021.

5. How much value can you glean from a trade-deadline acquisition?

In a normal year, the deadline would be July 31, and any acquired player would have about 60 games to recoup the value surrendered in a trade. In this weird season, only 27 days will remain in the regular season after the Aug. 31 deadline. That's five or six starts for a rotation piece, 10 to 12 appearances for relievers, 100 plate appearances for a position player. What's that really worth?

6. Will the season actually reach its conclusion?

Baseball seems to have a handle on how it will handle coronavirus outbreaks, if not the virus itself. When there's a positive test, teams shut down, players quarantine, and those infected are isolated. For all of the postponements related to the Marlins, Cardinals, Mets and Reds, there seems to be no indication -- yet -- that baseball has come close to a shut down. Rather, MLB is almost halfway through its journey to get the postseason TV money it covets. "They're plowing ahead," one GM said.

However, it's still possible that the sport could be derailed if five or six teams face outbreaks together or if a really prominent player or staffer got very, very sick (or, God forbid, worse). Teams will be leery of giving up too much in a trade because for the first time since 1994, it's inherently possible that the postseason will be shut down. No team wants to give up a ton of assets to add immediate and expensive help without getting the chance for return. Some teams will be very careful about this -- to the point of inaction.

7. Will a targeted player actually want to participate?

Some players have grown comfortable working under the health and safety protocol with their respective teams -- but would that be the case if a player is dealt? For example: What if the Marlins, a team that had the first major outbreak, traded for a veteran. Would that player be willing to go? Or would he follow the example of other players and opt out?

As the Phillies demonstrated: There will be teams that make deals before the Aug. 31 deadline. But some officials continue to assume that many clubs will be scared away from pricey trades because of all of those variables that are in play.

Notes from around the majors

Zach Eflin starts for the Phillies on Sunday as a living example of how the small samples of statistics and performance can be deceiving. Eflin carries a 5.14 ERA, ranked 200th among pitchers with at least 10 innings in this season. But the batting average on balls in play against Eflin this year is an absurdly high .438, second-worst in the big leagues among all pitchers with at least 10 innings (the Mets' Edwin Diaz is first, with a BABIP of .500).

Eflin's underlying metrics are much, much better than his ERA -- in fact, his xFIP of 2.37 is 10th best among all pitchers with at least 10 innings. So far, Eflin has a career-high ground ball rate of 1.50 and 23 strikeouts in 14 innings. He said in conversation Saturday that he's fully aware that he has pitched with some bad luck, that in a couple of starts, he has seen poorly struck balls bloop in for hits. "You know, you forget it the moment that it happens," he said. "I don't really pitch with too much emotion."

Late last season, Eflin went back to attacking hitters with his two-seam fastball and improved dramatically, doubling down on his self-image as a pitcher who throws strikes, keeps the ball down in the zone and gets outs early in the count with weak contact.

• Eflin on Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto: "He's one of my favorite players in the league. No flash, no nothing -- he just goes out and plays and plays hard, and anything that comes out of his mouth you respect."

• The Red Sox began the process of selling off parts from what seems destined to be one of the worst teams in franchise history, swapping pitchers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree to the Phillies. Presumably, there will be other players on the move, such as reliever Matt Barnes, outfielders Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kevin Pillar and first baseman Mitch Moreland -- players who are eligible for free agency in the fall. It makes sense for the Red Sox to flip those players for controllable assets.

That said, it would be self-destructive for Chaim Bloom, Boston's new head of baseball operations, to deal star shortstop Xander Bogaerts, a possibility mentioned the other day by Ken Rosenthal. There is analytical logic to consider such a move: Bogaerts' no-trade protection would vest in the first week of September, and with a big class of high-end shortstops set for free agency following the 2021 season -- from Francisco Lindor to Javier Baez to Corey Seager -- the Red Sox could deal Bogaerts for return now to fuel the rebuilding process and aim to snag Lindor or one of his peers in the open market in '21.

Here's the enormous complication that is developing for Bloom, however: Because of Boston's horrific showing this year, the clock on his time with the Red Sox might have already started ticking. Bloom executed the trade of Mookie Betts, but he was not responsible for it; that was ownership's call. In the public domain, however -- and in the eyes of Red Sox fans -- it happened on Bloom's watch, followed by the team's historically awful pitching performance. Plus, Red Sox leadership has shown itself to be incredibly fickle, boomeranging from Theo Epstein -- who went from legend to persona non grata after his departure -- to Ben Cherington to David Dombrowski.

Unless Bogaerts loudly demands a trade, a decision to move him would only inflame the perception of Bloom among Boston fans -- and perhaps some frustrated players. Bogaerts is one of the pillars right now -- the best and most consistent hitter, someone respected for his consistent good nature. However, rival evaluators view him as below-average defensively, and they have questions about how long he can remain at shortstop and whether he needs to be moved to another position sooner rather than later.

But with Betts gone and Alex Cora gone and the team looking so bad and the pitching so thin -- amid great uncertainty about what Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez will provide going forward -- a trade of Bogaerts now would be dangerous. In a small market in which public reaction doesn't matter as much, sure, you could deal away every star and focus all your assets on building the best possible roster. In a big market such as Boston, however, you have to keep somebody, and Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers need to be those anchors.

• Yankees staffers walked away from their recent four-game series with the Red Sox very impressed by outfielder Alex Verdugo because of his skill set -- his ability to hit, throw, run -- and because of his energy. Boston has looked very flat, and Verdugo stood out like a lighthouse beacon with his passionate play. "That guy's a player," one staffer said.

• Some officials at the team level believe that Major League Baseball should adjust and back away from its intention to compel clubs to play as many of the 60 games on their schedules as possible through seven-inning doubleheaders. Because of the Cardinals' outbreak and postponements, for example, St. Louis had to play three doubleheaders in five days following 16 days of down time, including many days in which they couldn't hold a workout because of health and safety protocol. This is a competitive disadvantage for the Cardinals, Marlins, Phillies, Mets, Reds and all other teams that missed games, for sure, and also for the teams they play against because those clubs must also scramble to find pitching, fill innings gaps and keep their everyday players on the field at heightened injury risk.

• Toronto shortstop Bo Bichette has fewer than 300 at-bats in the big leagues, and he's currently down with a knee injury. But one high-ranking rival evaluator has seen enough, apparently. "It's pretty clear he's a superstar," the evaluator said, a comment made so casually that it reminded me of the time two months into the 2012 season that Oakland executive Billy Beane mentioned that rookie Mike Trout was the best player.

I asked: The best player on the Angels?

"No, the best player in baseball," said Beane, who turned out to be more than prescient.

• Shane Bieber has struck out 65 of the 150 hitters he has faced this year, and there have been only 10 at-bats in which an opposing batter came to the plate with a runner in scoring position against him -- and those hitters are 0-for-10 with six strikeouts.

• Bryce Harper is off to an exceptional start, and Paul Hembekides sent along these notes about what he's doing well:

Harper has been aggressive early in counts: He's swinging at the first pitch with 50% frequency, on pace for the highest mark of his career (fourth among 163 qualifiers this season).

Harper has been defensive in two-strike counts: He has eliminated his leg kick with two strikes while producing a .258 BA (on pace for career high) and taking a higher percentage of balls to the opposite field. The league is batting .166 with two strikes.

He's punishing mistakes: Harper is fouling off 31% of pitches in the strike zone (lowest in career) while slugging .880 on those pitches (highest in career).

• Veteran lefty Scott Kazmir will make what will probably be his last start for the independent Sugar Land Skeeters on Tuesday at a time when a lot of teams are looking for pitching. Kazmir's fastball was clocked in the low 90s in his previous start for the Skeeters.

• Even by Mike Trout's lofty standards, he has been doing a lot of home run damage, hitting 10 in his first 23 games. He has steadily improved during his career -- making an adjustment, for example, in dealing with the high fastballs that pitchers have consistently thrown to him. Earlier in the week, I reached out to Angels staffers to ask what Trout has been working on.

The responses were interesting: Trout really hasn't changed since last year, but he is getting pitched to more often because of the presence of Anthony Rendon behind him in the Angels' lineup. The underlying numbers bear this out. Year to year before 2020, Trout has seen a lower and lower percentage of pitches in the strike zone, and last year, that number plummeted to 40.1%.

This year, 48.5% of the pitches thrown to Trout have been in the zone, easily his career high, and after posting a walk percentage last year of 18.3%, his walk rate is down to 7.7% in 2020. In this case, there's a lot of early evidence that having Rendon in the on-deck circle is compelling opposing pitchers to be more aggressive in going after Trout.

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