On June 10, the evening of the 56th MLB first-year player draft, some happy amateur baseball star -- probably Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson -- will become the 55th player to be picked first overall. Yes, there have been more drafts than players picked first. We'll get to that.
Assuming he eventually reaches the majors, Torkelson will become the third Torkelson to play at the highest level of his sport. There was Red, a pitcher who won two games for the 1917 Cleveland Indians. There was Eric, who was a running back for the Green Bay Packers in the 1970s. I bring up the history of Torkelsons for two reasons. First, when I was a kid, one of my favorite nuggets of trivia was that Eric Torkelson was the brother of Peter Tork of The Monkees. The second reason I bring it up is that the trivia nugget was wrong: It traced back to an on-air gaffe by Howard Cosell.
Whether it's Torkelson or someone else whose name is called first, we know a couple of things about that player, whoever it will be. One, he's talented. He is viewed by people in the know as the best draft-eligible ballplayer in the country. Two, that doesn't necessarily tell you what kind of career he is going to have.
The career outcomes of top overall picks have been wildly disparate. There have been Hall of Famers. There have been All-Stars. There have been average players who lasted a long time. There have been average players who didn't last very long at all. There have been a few players who never even played in the big leagues. Let's rank them.
Methodology
The rankings are built from my system for rating player seasons, known as AXE. Careers are rated according to a combination of an aggregate AXE score, the combined score for the player's 10 best seasons, and a per-season replacement value, which adds a boost for longevity. Prorated 10-year scores were used for active players with fewer than 10 seasons played.
In addition, each season is assigned a score of 1 to 10, based on seasonal AXE rating. The distribution and rough description of each 1-to-10 rating is as follows:
All draft data was taken from baseball-reference.com.
Rankings
1. Alex Rodriguez, 1993, selected by Mariners (picked as a shortstop)
Seasons: 22 | Career score: 1,464
Season score breakdown:
10: 2
9: 2
8: 5
7: 5
6: 3
5: 1
4: 4
The first of three players who ended with the kind of career their selecting team envisioned when they landed the No. 1 pick.
2. Chipper Jones, 1990, Braves (SS)
Seasons: 19 | Career score: 1,362
Season score breakdown:
9: 1
8: 4
7: 5
6: 8
4: 1
Never had a bad season.
3. Ken Griffey Jr., 1987, Mariners (OF)
Seasons: 22 | Career score: 1,336
Season score breakdown:
9: 1
8: 5
7: 4
6: 2
5: 6
4: 4
Perhaps he hung on a year or so longer than he should have, but there's no complaining about Junior's career.
4. Adrian Gonzalez, 2000, Marlins (1B)
Seasons: 15 | Career score: 1,238
Season score breakdown:
8: 3
7: 4
6: 4
4: 4
A-Gone had a nice combination of All-Star-level performance and longevity, though we can't say it is 100 percent certain that the past tense is locked in for him just yet.
5. Joe Mauer, 2001, Twins (C)
Seasons: 15 | Career score: 1,237
Season score breakdown:
8: 2
7: 4
6: 3
5: 6
Mauer had a fairly short career and a number of average seasons, but his peaks were special and more than justified his hometown team's selection of him in 2001.
6. Bryce Harper, 2010, Nationals (OF)
Seasons: 8 | Career score: 1,216
Season score breakdown:
10: 1
7: 5
6: 1
5: 1
As with all the active players, Harper could move up this list, or he could move down, and the direction he goes will perhaps depend on how close he comes to replicating his special 2015 campaign.
7. Darryl Strawberry, 1980, Mets (OF)
Seasons: 17 | Career score: 1,207
Season score breakdown:
8: 2
7: 4
6: 3
5: 4
4: 4
The Straw Man had more than a half-decade's worth of special seasons, but he'll always leave us wanting more.
8. David Price, 2007, Devil Rays (LHP)
Seasons: 12 | Career score: 1,174
Season score breakdown:
8: 2
7: 1
6: 5
5: 3
4: 1
It has been a solid career for Price, with his potential to add to his résumé still alive, now that he has landed with the success machine that is the Dodgers.
9. Justin Upton, 2005, Diamondbacks (SS)
Seasons: 13 | Career score: 1,172
Season score breakdown:
7: 2
6: 6
5: 3
4: 2
Upton didn't stick as a shortstop, obviously. (Now it's kind of hard to even look at him as a shortstop.) But he has had a nice run.
10. Harold Baines, 1977, White Sox (1B)
Seasons: 22 | Career score: 1,159
Season score breakdown:
7: 1
6: 10
5: 8
4: 3
This is why you don't do the "if X is in the Hall of Fame, then Y should be." Even though Baines' excellent career was a whole lot of good-not-great, you can't draw the Cooperstown line at his performance record.
11. Carlos Correa, 2012, Astros (SS)
Seasons: 5 | Career score: 1,147
Season score breakdown:
8: 1
7: 2
6: 1
5: 1
These are still early days for Correa, who was a hit for the Astros in 2012. But as the injuries have piled up, it has become fair to wonder how many 4s and 5s are in his future, as opposed to more 7s and 8s.
12. Stephen Strasburg, 2009, Nationals (RHP)
Seasons: 10 | Career score: 1,129
Season score breakdown:
7: 2
6: 4
5: 4
Call it a hunch, but I look for Strasburg's next half-decade to be full of 7s and 8s.
13. Gerrit Cole, 2011, Pirates (RHP)
Seasons: 7 | Career score: 1,124
Season score breakdown:
8: 1
7: 2
5: 3
4: 1
The best seasons for Cole have been the most recent ones, a trend the Yankees would like to see continue for the next few years.
14. Rick Monday, 1965, Athletics (OF)
Seasons: 19 | Career score: 1,120
Season score breakdown:
7: 1
6: 5
5: 8
4: 5
The first top overall pick, Monday had a very good career, though injuries prevented a Hall of Fame-level trajectory. Even so, his legacy goes beyond what he did on the field.
15. Pat Burrell, 1998, Phillies (3B)
Seasons: 12 | Career score: 1,103
Season score breakdown:
7: 1
6: 4
5: 4
4: 3
A terrific hitter for a long time, Burrell was a bit mono-skilled for a No. 1 pick, but he eventually helped the Phillies win a World Series.
16. Darin Erstad, 1995, Angels (OF)
Seasons: 14 | Career score: 1,099
Season score breakdown:
8: 1
6: 4
5: 2
4: 7
That 8-rated season for Erstad came in 2000, when he hit .355. He didn't top .300 in any other season.
17. Andy Benes, 1988, Padres (RHP)
Seasons: 14 | Career score: 1,093
Season score breakdown:
6: 7
5: 3
4: 3
3: 1
Benes' best years were early in his career, and though he lasted 14 mostly above-average seasons, he never had a campaign like what you'd hope for from a top pick.
18. Josh Hamilton, 1999, Devil Rays (OF)
Seasons: 9 | Career score: 1,090
Season score breakdown:
9: 1
7: 3
5: 5
Can a biography be captured in a small statistical capsule? Hamilton's season score breakdown should put future baseball researchers into investigative mode.
19. Bob Horner, 1978, Braves (3B)
Seasons: 10 | Career score: 1,084
Season score breakdown:
6: 4
5: 5
4: 1
Horner was a record-breaking home run hitter at Arizona State, and after the Braves snagged him with the first pick in 1978, he skipped straight to the majors. He wasn't overmatched at all, but injuries eventually got him.
20. B.J. Surhoff, 1985, Brewers (SS)
Seasons: 19 | Career score: 1,074
Season score breakdown:
6: 3
5: 11
4: 5
I'm trying to avoid the "they could have picked X" thing for the most part, but it's hard to do with Surhoff. Among those picked within five slots of him in 1985 were Barry Bonds, Barry Larkin and Will Clark.
21. Jeff Burroughs, 1969, Senators (OF)
Seasons: 16 | Career score: 1,073
Season score breakdown:
7: 2
6: 1
5: 5
4: 8
Burroughs' American League MVP award in 1974 looks pretty bizarre through the prism of modern metrics, but he won the voting that year by a good margin. It was, at least, one of his two 7-rated seasons.
22. Tim Belcher, 1983, Twins (RHP)
Seasons: 14 | Career score: 1,064
Season score breakdown:
7: 1
6: 2
5: 5
4: 5
3: 1
In 1983, Belcher was picked first overall by the Twins, and he did not sign. He then was picked first overall by the Yankees in the old January secondary-phase draft in 1984. Then he was picked by the Athletics a month later from the free-agent compensation pool because Oakland lost pitcher Tom Underwood to the Orioles (a big reason that mechanism is no longer a thing). Then Belcher was traded to the Dodgers in 1987 as the player-to-be-named-later in the deal that sent Rick Honeycutt to Oakland. All of this happened before Belcher debuted in the majors. In 1988, he helped the Dodgers win the World Series and went on to have a fine career.
23. Floyd Bannister, 1976, Astros (LHP)
Seasons: 15 | Career score: 1,061
Season score breakdown:
7: 1
6: 3
5: 4
4: 7
Bannister had some good seasons as a power lefty, though not for Houston. He was one of the AL's better lefties toward the end of his time with the Mariners. Then he had his best seasons for the White Sox, including the 1983 AL West champs.
24. Mike Moore, 1981, Mariners (RHP)
Seasons: 14 | Career score: 1,058
Season score breakdown:
7: 2
6: 2
5: 1
4: 8
3: 1
Moore tended to vacillate according to the level of the team around him. Twice he finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting, but he also twice led the AL in losses.
25. Phil Nevin, 1992, Astros (3B)
Seasons: 12 | Career score: 1,055
Season score breakdown:
7: 1
6: 3
5: 2
4: 6
This isn't fair, but I'll do it anyway: Nevin was picked five spots ahead of Derek Jeter.
26. Jeff King, 1986, Pirates (SS)
Seasons: 11 | Career score: 1,047
Season score breakdown:
6: 4
5: 1
4: 6
After the 1996 season, the Royals traded for King, Jay Bell from the Pirates and Chili Davis from the Angels. A lifelong Royals fan, I had just moved to Kansas City for the first time and was really excited. It did not work out, and I was confused. Then I read Bill James, and now you are reading my words on this website.
27. Ben McDonald, 1989, Orioles (RHP)
Seasons: 9 | Career score: 1,022
Season score breakdown:
7: 2
6: 2
5: 3
4: 2
A long, hard-throwing righty, McDonald was as hyped as they come as a prospect. He struggled with command and consistency at the big league level, and though he had some good seasons, shoulder injuries got him before he could ever get on a sustained run.
28. Dansby Swanson, 2015, Diamondbacks (SS)
Seasons: 4 | Career score: 1,017
Season score breakdown:
5: 3
4: 1
Swanson is just getting started, but as the Braves try to maximize their window of contention, they need him to become more than average.
29. Mike Ivie, 1970, Padres (C)
Seasons: 11 | Career score: 1,009
Season score breakdown:
6: 2
5: 2
4: 7
Ivie quickly moved from behind the plate as a professional and ended up as a corner type of utility player, mostly a first baseman. Because he could really hit only lefties, he never quite became a regular.
30. Shawon Dunston, 1982, Cubs (SS)
Seasons: 18 | Career score: 1,008
Season score breakdown:
5: 8
4: 9
3: 1
Dunston had tools, including a powerful throwing arm and good pop off the bat, but his career was undermined by his proclivity for swinging at everything that entered the zip code of home plate.
31. Delmon Young, 2003, Devil Rays (OF)
Seasons: 10 | Career score: 968
Season score breakdown:
6: 1
4: 8
3: 1
Always perplexing, Young's lack of plate discipline killed his attempts to translate his exciting minor league performance into sustained big league excellence.
32. Bill Almon, 1974, Padres (SS)
Seasons: 15 | Career score: 967
Season score breakdown:
5: 3
4: 12
There are a couple of these guys on the list: the 1970s type of shortstops who couldn't hit a lick, yet their managers kept running them out there. Of the two, Almon ended up as an often-useful utility player.
33. Dave Roberts, 1972, Padres (3B)
Seasons: 10 | Career score: 957
Season score breakdown:
6: 1
4: 8
3: 1
Not that Dave Roberts.
34. Kris Benson, 1996, Pirates (RHP)
Seasons: 9 | Career score: 955
Season score breakdown:
6: 1
5: 4
4: 4
Another hyped prospect, Benson might have been on track to fulfill his promise before he had Tommy John surgery after his second -- and best -- season. He was up and down after that and probably received more scrutiny than he deserved because of the antics of his ex-wife.
35. Tim Foli, 1968, Mets (SS)
Seasons: 16 | Career score: 940
Season score breakdown:
5: 1
4: 12
3: 3
This is the other 1970s shortstop referred to above. Foli had 11 seasons with 300 or more plate appearances. His best OPS+ in those seasons was 83. But that season was 1979, and he was the everyday shortstop of the "We Are Family" Pirates. Foli rated as an above-average defensive shortstop, but he never won a Gold Glove.
36. Luke Hochevar, 2006, Royals (RHP)
Seasons: 9 | Career score: 923
Season score breakdown:
5: 2
4: 5
3: 2
The next two pitchers taken in 2006 after Hochevar were Greg Reynolds (minus-1.5 career WAR) and Brad Lincoln (0.4). The next five after that -- all taken in the top 11 -- were Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer.
37. Ron Blomberg, 1967, Yankees (1B)
Seasons: 8 | Career score: 904
Season score breakdown:
6: 1
5: 3
4: 4
Blomberg will always be remembered as baseball's first designated hitter.
38. Paul Wilson, 1994, Mets (RHP)
Seasons: 7 | Career score: 800
Season score breakdown:
5: 3
4: 3
3: 1
Wilson, Jason Isringhausen and Bill Pulsipher were supposed to head up baseball's next great rotation -- "Generation K," they were called. Injuries got them all, though Isringhausen went on to have an outstanding career as a closer.
39. Matt Anderson, 1997, Tigers (RHP)
Seasons: 7 | Career score: 797
Season score breakdown:
5: 2
4: 5
You just won't see this happen again: a team picking a reliever first, even if he threw triple digits, as Anderson did before he was hurt. Anderson's 26 career saves are the most by a top overall pick, so there you go.
40. Danny Goodwin, 1971 & 1975, White Sox & Angels (C)
Seasons: 7 | Career score: 791
Season score breakdown:
5: 1
4: 6
Clearly, Goodwin was a talented player. You don't get picked first overall on two occasions four years apart if you don't have ability. But his destiny as a trivia answer underscores why there is only so much you can glean from draft position in baseball.
41. Tim Beckham, 2008, Rays (SS)
Seasons: 6 | Career score: 742
Season score breakdown:
5: 1
4: 5
Beckham is still at it, and his overaggressive approach at the plate means his solid power still doesn't offset his subpar defense, but give him credit for perseverance. At one point, it looked like he would wash out altogether.
42. Shawn Abner, 1984, Mets (OF)
Seasons: 6 | Career score: 715
Season score breakdown:
5: 1
4: 5
Invented baseball in a cow pasture on the shores of Otsego Lake in Cooperstown, New York, in the late 1830s. Or was that a different Abner?
43. Bryan Bullington, 2002, Pirates (RHP)
Seasons: 5 | Career score: 639
Season score breakdown:
4: 3
3: 2
And you wonder why Pirates fans have become so jaded. ... Bullington was a signability pick, a pitcher taken five slots ahead of Zack Greinke. After things didn't work out stateside, he ended up putting up some nice numbers in Japan before his chronically ailing shoulder flared up again.
44. David Clyde, 1973, Rangers (LHP)
Seasons: 5 | Career score: 639
Season score breakdown:
5: 1
4: 4
Once, Clyde was the poster boy for pitcher abuse: After being drafted at age 18 by the Rangers, he was rushed directly to the majors as a ticket-selling gambit. He threw a lot of pitches in those outings, eventually got hurt and never had much of a big league career. Now he is the poster boy for a group of major leaguers from his generation who have been overlooked by the MLBPA in their efforts to improve the player pension plan over the years.
45. Matt Bush, 2004, Padres (SS)
Seasons: 3 | Career score: 467
Season score breakdown:
6: 1
4: 2
Bush flamed out as a position player. Then he made it to the majors as a short reliever, showing a lot of promise in that role. Injuries intervened, however, and we're waiting to see if he has another comeback in him.
46. Al Chambers, 1979, Mariners (OF)
Seasons: 3 | Career score: 443
Season score breakdown:
4: 3
Chambers barely made a dent in the majors, and he is the one player on this list I had to google in order to find a fact rather than check a fact. Turns out, he was once envisioned as "the next Jim Rice." It turned out that he was not the next Jim Rice.
47. Adley Rutschman, 2019, Orioles (C)
Seasons: 0 | Career score: 0
Kiley McDaniel's third-ranked prospect. We're all eagerly awaiting his arrival.
48. Casey Mize, 2018, Tigers (RHP)
Seasons: 0 | Career score: 0
McDaniel's No. 14 prospect. I promoted him to the majors in my simulation of the 2020 season, and so far, he is 3-3 with a 2.93 ERA in eight starts.
49. Royce Lewis, 2017, Twins (SS)
Seasons: 0 | Career score: 0
McDaniel's No. 15 prospect. Has not played in my simulation.
50. Mickey Moniak, 2016, Phillies (OF)
Seasons: 0 | Career score: 0
Moniak was drafted in 2016, and he's still only 22, but he is at the point where he needs to make a leap pretty soon. He sports a .692 OPS for a minor league career that so far has topped out at Double-A. McDaniel did not rank Moniak among his top 100 prospects.
51. Brady Aiken, 2014, Astros (LHP)
Seasons: 0 | Career score: 0
It has been a tough go for Aiken. The Astros never signed him, largely because of injury concerns discovered after he was selected. He joins Belcher and Goodwin as the only top overall picks who didn't sign. The Indians eventually picked Aiken in 2015, but the injury concerns became injury realities. Last season, he decided to step away from the game. We hope for the best for him.
52. Mark Appel, 2013, Astros (RHP)
Seasons: 0 | Career score: 0
Appel quit the game after the 2017 season without having ascended above Triple-A. The Phillies hold his rights, should he decide to make another run at it.
53. Brien Taylor, 1991, Yankees (LHP)
Seasons: 0 | Career score: 0
54. Steve Chilcott, 1966, Mets (C)
Seasons: 0 | Career score: 0
Chilcott got hurt early in his pro career and never reached the majors. He was taken one spot ahead of Reggie Jackson.