For all practical purposes, the brick and mortar beneath the Mookie Betts trade was laid the day Gerrit Cole agreed to a $324 million deal to be the ace of the New York Yankees, and the construction accelerated when the Boston Red Sox fired manager Alex Cora. Once Boston's primary rivals got the ace they needed, and once the Red Sox lost their most important staffer, the Red Sox situation gained clarity: It's going to be a year of turnover, the crossroad to the next big thing.
Without Cora, without Betts, Boston could still compete for a playoff spot in 2020, and if everything went right for the Red Sox and everything went wrong for the Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, it's possible that the Sox could win the American League East. That latter scenario would require, for starters, many, many injuries manifesting in New York and Tampa Bay and Rafael Devers delivering an MVP performance.
But it's much more likely that this will be remembered as the year the Red Sox reset and took a turn back to consistent relevance, just as the Yankees did in 2016, when they traded Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman, extracted Gleyber Torres from the Cubs and introduced Aaron Judge to the big leagues.
Betts and left-hander David Price, heroes of 2018, are gone, and they won't be the last to be moved. Inevitably, the Red Sox will trade center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., perhaps in the middle of the pennant race; some teams were surprised the Red Sox tendered him a contract last fall. They'll continue to look to move right-hander Nathan Eovaldi in a deal, an effort that would be aided if Eovaldi pitches well early in 2020 and reestablishes some value. The 31-year-old Brandon Workman, who started throwing his curveball over and over and sprouted into one of baseball's best relievers, should be traded to sell high in the volatile bullpen market.
Over the past four seasons, J.D. Martinez has batted .312 with 146 homers and a .985 OPS in 535 games. But he is 32 and owed $62 million for the next three seasons, and unless the idea of a universal designated hitter is resolved before the current collective bargaining agreement expires in December 2021, the Red Sox will be greatly limited in where they might deal him. A lot of National League teams are wary of his defense.
Xander Bogaerts and Chris Sale are each signed for the next four seasons, and presumably, the Red Sox will try to work out an extension with third baseman Devers, who led the AL in doubles and was second in hits last season and might be Boston's next batting title winner. Outfielder Alex Verdugo goes into the everyday lineup in place of Betts -- at a much lower cost -- and right-hander Brusdar Graterol augments an already improving farm system.
But there is a long way to go for Boston to get back to serious contention with the Yankees, a collection of matured stars and big-money acquisitions, and the Rays, with their strong rotation and preeminent ability to develop productive big leaguers on the cheap. The Blue Jays might be ahead of the Red Sox as well as Boston goes through its renewal, now that Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio have reached the big leagues.
The Red Sox will need more than talent to challenge the Yankees consistently. Betts is a transcendent talent capable of lifting Boston, and he is a worker, someone who fretted about his performance and swing constantly, obsessing about getting better. The Angels have that in Mike Trout, the Dodgers have it in Clayton Kershaw, and the Indians in Francisco Lindor. To have that in the best player on the team won't be easy to replicate.
Rival executives and staffers believe that Cora's departure also represents a tangible loss for Boston because of his ability to connect with players, to coax the best out of them. He convinced Betts to hunt fastballs and be more aggressive in the count, encouraged Martinez to lead hitters' meetings that became so important, nudged Devers in his work and helped Bogaerts to relax.
The makeover that has started will be so extensive that the timing is right for the Betts deal, and it avoids what would've been a really complicated decision if the Red Sox happened to hang on at the edge of the wild-card race in July. But there is more to be paid on the credit card bill and the win-now spending that helped to create the World Series contender of 2017 and 2018, and it might be a while before Boston is anything close to what it was.