We have a legitimate blockbuster trade, as the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Mookie Betts and David Price from the Boston Red Sox.
Winners of seven consecutive National League West titles but still looking for their first World Series championship since 1988, the Dodgers added one of the top five position players in the game, although Betts can be a free agent after the 2020 season.
ESPN baseball writers Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break it all down:
So who went where on Tuesday night?
The Dodgers, Twins and Red Sox made a three-team trade, and the Angels and Dodgers completed a separate deal -- here's where everyone involved landed.
Los Angeles Dodgers get:
Luis Rengifo (in separate deal)
Boston Red Sox get:
Minnesota Twins get:
Los Angeles Angels get:
Joc Pederson (in separate deal)
Did the Dodgers just make the biggest move of the offseason?
Doolittle: Everything we say here is prefaced by the fact that we have to look at this as a one-year proposition for the Dodgers. Betts, 27, has been adamant about going into the open market after this season and given the possibility of a contract in the $300 million-$400 million range, and who could blame him? The Dodgers will be as likely to land Betts as anyone, but we can't assume that this is anything more than a one-year marriage.
That being the case: I don't think this trumps the Yankees' signing of Gerrit Cole as the biggest transaction of the winter. I'd also rate the impact of the Angels' signing of Anthony Rendon ahead of this. In both case, those teams were getting many years of impact production. For the Dodgers, it's all about whether Betts gets them over the hump this year so they can end that championship drought.
Schoenfield: As much as I love the acquisition for the Dodgers, the answer is no. The Dodgers were already heavy favorites in the NL West. They won the division by 21 games last year and I projected them about 12-13 wins better than the Diamondbacks before the trade, so the Dodgers could probably still win the division with Mookie Wilson in right field (and he's 63 years old).
I go with Gerrit Cole. Even though the Yankees will be heavy favorites in the American League East, the Rays project as a more formidable chaser there than the Diamondbacks in the NL West. A starting pitcher can make a much larger impact in the postseason, so Cole also increases the Yankees' odds of winning the World Series more than Betts does for the Dodgers. You could even argue that a player who will most help a team win a close division race is the "biggest" move -- say Josh Donaldson in Minnesota if the AL Central is tight.
What does L.A.'s Opening Day lineup look like with Betts in it?
Doolittle: Since the Dodgers open against the Giants, they'll probably get to roll out their primary lineup since San Francisco's top starter candidates are all righties. So we're looking at:
RF Mookie Betts
1B Max Muncy
3B Justin Turner
CF Cody Bellinger
SS Corey Seager
LF A.J. Pollock
2B Gavin Lux
C Will Smith
As it happens, I just did some rating of lineups, and adding Betts does indeed vault the Dodgers over Houston for the best everyday lineup in the majors. No doubt that was one of their primary motivations for pulling off the deal. Getting an everyday right-handed hitter in Betts does give the Dodgers more of a fixed lineup, though Muncy, Bellinger, Seager and Lux are all lefties.
Schoenfield: Frightening. I think this has a chance to be one of the best lineups in National League history. The Dodgers led the NL with 886 runs last season and think of the potential improvements for 2020:
-- A full season of Mookie Betts in the outfield.
-- A full season of Gavin Lux at second base, and even though he's a rookie, he has All-Star potential. Dodgers second basemen hit .239/.327/.440 last season. Not bad, but I'll take the over for Lux.
-- A full season with Will Smith as the starting catcher. Dodgers catchers hit .228/.322/.412 -- boosted by Smith's impressive .253/.337/.571 line in 196 plate appearances. Dodgers catchers will be better in 2020.
--Possibly a better season from Corey Seager as he's another year removed from his Tommy John surgery. He had a 113 OPS+ last year, above average, but he was at 134 in 2016 and 126 in 2017. He could be 20 runs better at the plate.
You do lose Joc Pederson's 36 home runs, but you still have Chris Taylor, A.J. Pollock, Enrique Hernandez and Matt Beaty for left field. Plus maybe the best bench in baseball (Taylor, Hernandez, Beaty, Austin Barnes). The Dodgers' 886 runs last season was the most by an NL team since the 2007 Phillies scored 892. With Betts and full seasons from Lux and Smith, they might score 900.
The Dodgers won 106 games last year. How much better does Betts really make them?
Doolittle: There's no doubt that Betts is an upgrade. However, it might not be one that's apparent in the standings, because the Dodgers were and remain a team likely to win 95 to 105 games or so. To me, any notion that L.A. might have needed to make this splash because of the goings-on in San Diego or Phoenix is silly. The range of possible 2020 outcomes overlapped for all three of those teams already, but not by very much. Now the overlap is even more narrow. Still, the bottom line has not changed: The Dodgers are overwhelming favorites to win and, likely, dominate the NL West. This trade will ultimately be judged by what happens after the Dodgers clinch another division crown. And because he's a pitcher, it would be less than shocking if Price ends up tipping the scales more this autumn than Betts.
Schoenfield: According to BaseRuns, the Dodgers should have won 110 games last season. So despite losing Hyun-Jin Ryu in free agency, they might have improved anyway! Of course, it would be foolish to predict 106 wins again -- the over/under before the Betts trade was 98.5 from one betting site -- but Betts projects as about a 4-win upgrade in right field.
So this move is for October, right? How much will Betts help L.A. in the postseason?
Doolittle: As mentioned, the trade gives the Dodgers more of an everyday look since there is no real weakness in Betts' game and manager Dave Roberts won't have to do as much shift-changing during games as if he were Joel Quenneville. This makes L.A. a tougher postseason matchup from just an X's and O's standpoint. More than that, though, Betts is a real catalyst who will put pressure on opponents from the opening pitch in a way that the occasional Pederson leadoff splash doesn't. Betts doesn't just make the Dodgers' lineup better; he should make it more consistent. They gain in batting average, contact ability, speed, defense, you name it. All of those things can tip a short series.
Price gives L.A. a big October three of Clayton Kershaw, Price and Walker Buehler, though it can also use Dustin May if he continues his emergence. That would free Price up to become the stretched-out, super-starter-reliever hybrid he was for Boston in 2018. And, sure, it's possible that the Red Sox are getting out from under Price at just the right time. But he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings last season and has a decade's worth of ace pedigree. That's not nothing.
Schoenfield: I think the key is Betts helps bring some right-handed balance to the lineup. Is that a big deal? It should help. Consider the Dodgers' performance against right-handers and left-handers in the postseason over the past three Octobers:
RHP: .216/.310/.412
LHP: .235/.326/.369
OK, they haven't done that well against either side, although they have hit with a little more power against right-handers and they've faced some tough righties along the way (five hits in 12 innings against Justin Verlander in the 2017 World Series, nine hits in 12 innings off Stephen Strasburg in last year's National League Division Series). It's worth noting, I suppose, that Betts hasn't been a great postseason performer, hitting .227/.313/.341. Which maybe means he's due.
The Dodgers did give up a lot for one year of Betts. Grade this trade for L.A.
Doolittle: The Dodgers have more than enough depth to repopulate their roster in upcoming seasons, and if Betts leaves after one year, they'll get a solid compensatory draft pick and will be able to reinvest his salary slot in another star-level player. In the short term, the Dodgers aren't giving up anything that meaningfully affects their 2020 World Series chances. Was the trade necessary? Not really, and that holds true for both Betts and Price. But there was also no reason not do it, especially because it has the added benefit of keeping Betts away from San Diego and Arizona, who were both buzzing around him in the rumor mill. Grade: A.
Schoenfield: There's no doubt the Dodgers' reluctance to make a big offseason move in recent years has irritated Dodgers fans, but they did trade for Yu Darvish at the 2017 deadline and Manny Machado in 2018. And let's be honest: If Kenley Jansen and Kershaw had performed better at various spots in October, they might have won a couple of World Series the past three years. Anyway, I love the trade, as the Dodgers have plenty of organizational depth and their payroll flexibility in upcoming years means they might even consider re-signing Betts as a free agent. Grade: A.
What about the Red Sox: What's their ceiling for 2020 without Betts?
Doolittle: It's looking mediocre. Given the lack of depth and health concerns around their rotation, the Red Sox still profiled reasonably well because of a lineup that looked dynamic. Now, not so much. This deal knocks my ranking of their everyday lineup from eighth down to 13th. That's with Verdugo playing mostly every day. The area the Red Sox needed to be special in is now middle of the pack. And the rotation, which already looked thin, is a big question mark. This was a move to create flexibility for a future run. Boston can certainly make a run at a wild card, but this trade hurts the Red Sox in the short run more than it helps the Dodgers.
Schoenfield: Given the uncertain health of Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi, winning the division was always going to be a difficult task. Minus Betts, those odds go way down, even if Sale and Eovaldi can somehow deliver 60 starts.
The offensive core is still strong, however, and while I have Boston behind the Yankees and Rays, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of 90 wins and a potential wild card. A lot will have to go right for that happen, but it's likely that second wild card in the AL will be a tight race among three or four clubs.
Grade this trade for the Red Sox. Did they get enough?
Doolittle: Getting out of Price's deal is a big financial reprieve for the Red Sox. Given what the front office clearly saw as a likely Betts departure, I'd give this a solid B-plus. You can't get value-for-value on a one-season basis for a player like Betts. My usual beef with this kind of a deal is that you should never punt a season in which you have a reasonable chance to make the postseason. This deal isn't an out-and-out punt, but there are a lot of question marks about the Red Sox right now, and the decision to secure the value Betts represents tells me they saw those same questions.
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At the same time, I keep coming back to the thought that without the luxury tax structure in place right now in baseball, this would not have happened. The Red Sox ought to be able to top the market to keep Betts in place while also throwing money to fill other holes. Was incenting the value-salvaging move of dealing a marquee player like Betts away from the only team he's known -- one of baseball's flagship teams -- really what we want the luxury tax to be doing?
Schoenfield: Verdugo was a 3-win player in 377 plate appearances last season, so it's not silly to project him as a 4-win or even 5-win player as a full-time regular. You'll definitely take five years of that for one of Mookie Betts given that you weren't going to re-sign Betts.
The nice thing about Verdugo is that he's definitely a plus glove in right field, but good enough to move over to center when Jackie Bradley Jr. departs as a free agent (or is traded). But the big bonus is getting Brusdar Graterol from the Twins, a pure upside play with his upper-90s velocity. It's the kind of arm you love to gamble on, and given what the Red Sox are trying to do, betting on a high ceiling is the way to go, even if it doesn't work out. So you have Verdugo, who has a high floor, and Graterol with a high ceiling. I give Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom an A.