With nearly all of the top free agents off the market, four of the game's biggest stars have been attached to trade rumors this offseason. Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor would be welcome additions to any team. Over the past four years, each member of that group ranks in the top 10 in FanGraphs wins above replacement. Last season, the group averaged more than 5.0 fWAR, with Lindor's very good 4.4 mark the lowest of the bunch.
We should acknowledge that the team trading one of these players would do so as a cost-saving measure designed to trim payroll, and thus would be expected to be worse in 2020. Given that the Red Sox, Cubs and Indians are all clear contenders, and the Sox and Cubs are two of the wealthiest teams in the game, these are unusual circumstances lacking in sound logic. However, if the team owner is calling for a reduction in payroll, then perhaps trading a star player close to free agency might be the best way to achieve that and get better in the near future, even if it isn't 2020.
Parting with any of these stars would be an incredibly difficult decision, but with the caveat above, here is an argument for and against trading each of the four.
Mookie Betts
For: After winning a World Series in 2018, the Red Sox missed the playoffs last year although they still had a decent 84-78 record. The team has roughly $238 million in payroll on the books for 2020. John Henry would like that amount to be lower, and Betts, 27, will make $27 million next season. The Red Sox have other high-paid players, but most of them have no or negative trade value, meaning Boston would have to include young, cheap players in the trade package, pay down salary or get a bad contract in return.
If the goal is to get under the competitive balance tax, Betts is the only high-priced player who will net decent prospects in return. The dismissal of manager Alex Cora and looming sign-stealing penalties, including potential draft picks, provides further cover to stock a depleted system. If the Red Sox want to trade him, they should do so now, as his value in July could be much lighter and much of the payroll savings would already be lost.
Against: He's Mookie Betts. He is arguably the second-best player in all of baseball, and despite last year's record, the Red Sox are one of the league's better teams heading into the season. The odds of the Red Sox making the playoffs would nosedive without Betts on the roster. It's true the Red Sox risk losing Betts at the end of the season for only a compensation draft pick, but wasting a potential championship run by removing one of the game's best players is inexcusable.
Even if the Red Sox lose Betts after the season, they would still have a solid core with Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, and the financial wherewithal to create a sustained winner. If the Red Sox are hit with harsh sign-stealing penalties, the team's incentive to win now only grows as 2020 presents the team's best opportunity at a championship.
Kris Bryant
For: The former MVP is not likely to have greater trade value than he does right now, and he does have some lingering injury concerns. After averaging 6.9 fWAR per season from 2015 to 2017, Bryant suffered through an injury-riddled 2018 that saw him hit only 13 homers. He bounced back last year with a 31-homer season, but added knee and ankle injuries to his prior shoulder trouble. The Cubs have a weak farm system, a hole in the rotation and a core that might be gone in two years, with Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez eligible for free agency after the 2021 season.
If the Cubs are willing to take another step back in 2020 after a rough 2019, Bryant should provide a decent return that could help the farm system and perhaps the present rotation. If Chicago could get a starter and a young center fielder, and plug in David Bote at third base, it might not take much of a hit for 2020. Waiting until after next season might make more sense; the return would be less, but the Cubs' chances of winning in 2020 probably would be greater.
Against: While Baez is exciting and Rizzo has been very good for a long time, no player has been more important to turning around the franchise than Bryant. From 2015 to 2017, as the Cubs made three straight National League Championship Series and won a World Series, Bryant was the best player in the NL. After a down campaign in 2018, Bryant rebounded with a five-win season (via fWAR, naturally) and he's projected to do the same in 2020.
Bryant, 28, is the Cubs' best player and big-market teams shouldn't be in the business of trading away their best player when trying to contend. Whether the Cubs will admit it, their window of contention is closing, and netting a couple of prospects for Bryant isn't going to open it back up. With their core aging and heading toward free agency, the Cubs should be looking to maximize their chances now. In addition, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arenado have been good options available this offseason for teams looking for a third baseman, lessening the likelihood someone will be willing to give up a massive haul for Bryant.
Francisco Lindor
For: Of the four players discussed, Lindor, 26, has the highest trade value. He has an extra year of team control over Betts, is two years younger than Bryant, plays a good shortstop, lacks injury concerns and his 12.0 fWAR over the past two seasons ranks seventh among all position players. Cleveland can demand and likely receive a haul for Lindor. While the Indians are in good position to make the playoffs after a 93-win season a year ago, they don't have a single outfielder projected to be even average.
If the team could find two average outfielders and maybe a starting pitcher or shortstop replacement between the trade return and money saved, Cleveland might not be any worse this coming season. With the Indians' payroll already low and Lindor under team control through 2021, there isn't as much pressure to trade their star now. The trade deadline might offer Cleveland a better assessment of where it is in terms of contention and still provide a chance to net a healthy return, much like the Indians did with Trevor Bauer last season.
Against: Yes, Cleveland does have multiple holes that could be filled via a Lindor trade, but with payroll down close to $50 million from where it was a few years ago, the team also could fill some of those holes without trading a franchise great. In addition, the payroll flexibility the Indians have could be used to lock up Lindor long term. Trading Lindor might lower the payroll next season, and they might be able to replace his contributions by filling multiple holes, but Cleveland is still searching for its first World Series title in more than 65 years. The Indians already have a solid farm system to help sustain competitiveness, and with their pitching staff and stars like Lindor and the cost-controlled Jose Ramirez, Cleveland should be aiming to win now. Keeping Lindor gives the Indians the best opportunity to do so.
Nolan Arenado
For: After playoff appearances in 2017 and 2018, the Rockies lost 91 games last season and the projections don't look too great for 2020. Arenado is one of the better players in the game, but he has an opt-out clause after the 2021 season. If Arenado is still playing well and the Rockies are not, then Colorado will have paid him nearly $100 million for three really good seasons on bad teams and watch him leave. If Arenado's production drops off and he doesn't opt out, Colorado will be on the hook for another $164 million from 2022 to 2026.
So if the Rockies don't have a plan to contend in the next two seasons, resetting without their biggest salary on the books might be a good idea. And if they are going to do that, they might as well do it now and get their rebuild going. As the rift between Arenado and the front office grows with a war of words through the media, the likelihood that Arenado will opt out without another playoff appearance in Colorado grows.
Against: All the reasons the Rockies might want to trade Arenado now also are the reasons his trade value should be the lowest among the players mentioned in this piece. Arenado has roughly the same contract as Angels free-agent signee Anthony Rendon, but Arenado has an opt-out and the team acquiring him would have to part with some valuable prospects. If a team wanted a player of Arenado's quality, they could have had him at a lower cost last month.
The best-case scenario for a team trading for Arenado, who turns 29 in April, is that he plays well and opts out after two seasons. If he doesn't, then the team could be stuck with an aging, declining player on a big contract. A team trading for Arenado could ask him to waive the opt-out, but that probably would come with an extra cost. The main reason for the Rockies to keep Arenado is that it might be hard for them to get the return he would seem to be worth.