MLB Stock Watch -- Ranking all 30 teams midway through offseason

Bradford DoolittleJan 9, 2020, 07:00 AM ET
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Welcome to the first Stock Watch of the new decade!

We've got a little less than five weeks before spring training gets going with the first full-squad workouts. The hot stove season seems to be about 80 percent complete, judging by the rate of transactions in the books so far. We've been pretty light on trades this winter, so perhaps a blockbuster or two could still jumble things. But at this point, it feels like if we were going to get some kind of projection-altering trade, it would have already happened. But one hopes that feeling is wrong, because trades are fun.

Meanwhile, there are enough quality free agents remaining on the market that you could still field a credible team out of them. That group is headlined by Josh Donaldson, but other unsigned veterans such as Marcell Ozuna, Yasiel Puig and Nicholas Castellanos could bolster any team's outlook. Still, potential rosters for the coming season have come into sharp enough focus that we can start to assess how much things have changed (if at all) since the Washington Nationals put a bow on their first championship on the night before Halloween of 2019.

That's the essence of what Stock Watch is all about -- seeing how the landscape has shifted since we previously checked in. We chime in with various themes through the run of the series, which is generally from January through September, to align with events on the calendar. Today, we kick off the year with a straightforward look that is as much a set of power rankings as anything.

Some quick technical notes: The power ratings that follow reflect each team's current baseline win forecast, i.e., how each rated prior to a run of 10,000 simulations of the 2020 schedule. The distinction is important this month because the top-rated team by power rating would slip to second if we slotted the teams according to average simulation wins. In other words, the Yankees don't catch much of a break from their schedule, but the Dodgers -- who figure to tower over the National League West once again -- get a nice boost from their upcoming docket. For most teams, the difference between power rating and average simulation wins is negligible.

The "change from last season" notation is simply the team's simulated wins compared to its actual 2019 win total. For teams at the outer edges -- good and bad -- this number tends to be more a result of regression than it is a fundamental shift in talent level. In some cases, as with the Astros, it's a combination of both. Losing Gerrit Cole is going to hurt, no matter how you slice it, and it's not going to help ward off projected regression for a team that won 107 games.

I've also listed how the teams rank in run scoring, run prevention and team defense with ballpark effects removed, making the comparisons apples to apples. Alongside those numbers, I've noted where the teams finished last season in those areas.

Finally, the probabilities listed simply reflect how many times during the simulation run a team won a thing -- won a division, made the playoffs, won a pennant, won it all. The best thing about this time of the year is no team is completely ruled out of a postseason berth. Well, almost no team. This time there was one exception -- sorry, Orioles fans. But take solace in the knowledge that we've still got those five weeks until spring training and those quality veterans are still dangling on the market.

1. New York Yankees

POWER RATING: 99.2
WIN FORECAST: 99.3 | CHANGE FROM LAST SEASON: -3.7
DIVISION%: 71.0 | PLAYOFF%: 91.5
PENNANT%: 30.6 | TITLE%: 19.7
UNIT RANKINGS: Park-neutral Run Scoring: 5 (Last year: 2) | Park-neutral Runs Allowed: 3 (Last year: 13) | Defense: 16 (Last year: 16)

In most of the comments here, I'll try to chime in with a remaining weakness of some significance that a team's profile reveals, mostly because there is still time for teams to do something about these apparent roster shortcomings. With Cole on board, New York has top-five projections in both scoring and run prevention, with a rotation and a bullpen that also rank in the top five. The only possible thing to nitpick about is the defense. DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge are fine defenders, but even with them, the Yanks are probably looking at a middle-of-the-pack defense. With a pitching staff that projects to lead the majors in strikeouts, I'm not sure it matters.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

If you want to complain about the Dodgers not outspending the Yankees and Angels for Cole and Anthony Rendon, respectively, that's fine. Beyond that, it's hard to understand some of the venom that's been pointed at the Dodgers this winter over a perceived lackadaisical approach. This is not an easy roster to upgrade from the second and third tiers of free agency, and these numbers don't even reflect a farm system that just this week Baseball America described as one of the five best in baseball.

3. Houston Astros

You're reading those unit rankings correctly: My system rated the Astros first in run creation, run prevention and defense last season. The drop-off in defense projected for 2020 probably isn't a huge deal, if only because projecting team defense is at best an uncertain science. The void left by Cole's departure is a big deal. The Astros have been cash-strapped this winter as their young core matures into higher income tiers. Forget replacing Cole -- I currently have the Astros just kind of crowdsourcing the final couple of slots in their rotation. Still, while there is more uncertainty about the Astros than there has been the past couple of years, let's not lose sight of just how much talent remains in Houston. The Astros might not romp to another American League West title, but they remain the clear favorite to win the division.

4. Washington Nationals

For all the talk of regression that's already taken place in this piece and with the gut-punch departure of Rendon, the Nationals still look like a rock-solid ballclub and a moderate favorite to overtake the Braves in the NL East. (Though the Braves might still have a splash or two left in them this offseason.) Part of Washington's outlook to consider is that regression might actually work in the Nationals' favor because of how bad they were during their first 50 games of the 2019 season. The Nats ended up as the team we thought they were -- a team that could win it all -- but they barely got that far because of a two-month stumble. The starting rotation is baseball's best as the season approaches and a bullpen that was weak in 2019 now looks like a solid middle-of-the-pack bunch because of much-improved depth.

5. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox look good on paper but their standing is tenuous. First, consider how close their power rating is to the Indians, Athletics, Rays and Twins just behind them, not to mention how far away it is from the Yankees. Boston's outlook is still bolstered by its historic 2018 campaign. However, for this group to look more like those champions instead of last season's also-rans, it needs to position itself against a possible decline from J.D. Martinez and a likely regression from Eduardo Rodriguez. However, right now the aim seems to be more about trimming payroll than filling in the gaps. Given the hyper-competitiveness of the American League, balancing the short- and long-term outlooks will be a major challenge for new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom.

6. Cleveland Indians

Despite themselves, the Indians still look like the favorite in the AL Central, though at the moment, I wouldn't trade the rosters of either the Twins or White Sox for that of the Indians given a multiyear window to consider. Cleveland once again needs its rotation to function as one of the best and most durable in baseball in order to contend. There are still good outfielders on the market who could help this roster -- Castellanos and Ozuna both jump out -- but it seems clear the Indians aren't interested in springing for either one.

7. Oakland Athletics

Right now, Oakland's offseason report card is full of incompletes as the A's wait for bargains to slip down to their level of spending. Nothing they do is likely to affect this outlook, which is pretty darned good as it is. The A's could probably use a couple of cheap veteran options for the rotation, just to provide stability and depth. Similar observations have been made in recent seasons, only to have Oakland proceed to flash its MacGyver-like ability to fashion a quality rotation out of whatever is lying around. This time, though, the A's have the additional factor of upside. If young starters A.J. Puk, Frankie Montas and Jesus Luzardo all break through in a sustainable fashion at the same time in 2020, this is a team that could move from good to great in the blink of an eye.

8. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' run-prevention model is a wonder to behold. This season, they could crowdsource their efforts as they've done so well in recent seasons. But they might not have to if a rotation led by Blake Snell, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow remains healthy. Tampa Bay always backs its pitchers with a quality defense, and this year looks no different. The offense looks productive at the bottom line, but it's highly dependent upon the collective isolated power of the group. You'd like to see the Rays cut down on their strikeouts a bit for consistency's sake.

9. Atlanta Braves

The Braves are coping with the departures of Brian McCann, Dallas Keuchel and, for now, Donaldson. Even more than that, they are dealing with the fact that their 97 wins last season was six more than their run differential suggested they should have had. Nevertheless, a reunion with Donaldson gets Atlanta almost back where it was at the end of last season. Given the competition in the division, Braves fans should cross their fingers.

10. Minnesota Twins

Forget last year's 101-win season. The Twins aren't battling their recent selves -- they are trying to emerge from what looks like a closer division on paper than it was last season. Cleveland's slow decline is part of that, as is the potential rise of the White Sox. Right now, Minnesota's rotation rates as the 19th-best in the majors, but is still the second-best in the division. If short-term bandages such as Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe can keep the group stable behind Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Homer Bailey, the Twins can look forward to working in Michael Pineda and Rich Hill as the season unfolds. However, they have to hope neither Cleveland nor Chicago takes off in the way the Twins did a season ago.

11. New York Mets

The Mets' offense probably deserved to get a little more credit for its performance last season, even taking into account the 53-homer season by rookie Pete Alonso. Part of the underappreciation is surely do to with park factors, but New York ranked seventh in the majors in OPS+, just to cite one park-neutral metric. While another 50-homer season from Alonso is unlikely, this year's group could be even better. One situation to watch: What if Robinson Cano doesn't bounce back? After all, he is coming off his worst season in 11 years and is 37 years old. Will new manager Carlos Beltran be willing to sit him? Also, a big challenge for Beltran will be to paper over what looks like a lackluster defensive profile for this year's team.

12. Los Angeles Angels

The addition of Rendon could give the Angels an elite offense, and the signing this week of catcher Jason Castro gives L.A. another elite defender. There is still work to be done with the pitching staff. The Angels' rotation projects to be a middling group at best, while the bullpen lacks both impact and depth. It will be up to new manager Joe Maddon to move his pieces around successfully in hopes of a possible midseason splash near the trade deadline. That is, unless general manager Billy Eppler has something up his sleeve over the rest of the offseason -- something that doesn't involve dealing away superprospect Jo Adell.

13. San Diego Padres

The Padres are movin' on up, though it'll take a major breakout for San Diego to threaten the Dodgers in 2020. San Diego has a nice mix of stable veterans for its rotation, which could be bolstered by the ascension of prospects like MacKenzie Gore. Rookie manager Jayce Tingler will have the luxury of one of baseball's best bullpens to help keep his rotation fresh. San Diego will have Fernando Tatis Jr. in his second season and can hope for improved production from Manny Machado. It only gets better from here.

14. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals haven't really done anything this offseason that would convince projection systems to overlook a good deal of regression. Losing Ozuna, if he signs elsewhere, hurts the on-paper outlook in the short term, but reinvesting in him might not make sense given the imminent arrival of young outfielders Randy Arozarena and Dylan Carlson. The Cardinals are doing what they do, and generally speaking, it works out fine. And as mediocre as this projection looks, it still rates them as a soft favorite to repeat in the NL Central.

15. Philadelphia Phillies

Hey, it's not just me -- the Phillies continue to land right smack in the middle of most projections this winter despite adding Zack Wheeler to the rotation and Didi Gregorius to the infield. The NL East is tough, but it's not a hopeful outlook for the Phils. There are still a lot of good arms in the bullpen. Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola have had better seasons than they put up in 2019. Andrew McCutchen will return from injury. Further removed from surgery, Gregorius has a lot to prove in his make-good season for Philly. And this group gets a fresh start with new manager Joe Girardi.

16. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs won six fewer games than expected based on their run differential in 2019, and in theory, that should work in their favor going forward. But given the collective age of their pitching staff, the lack of offseason activity and a lack of prospects coming up ready to contribute, why would we expect the Cubs to be better than they were last year? Chicago can still contend, mostly because the Cubs still have an outstanding group of position players. But first-time manager David Ross will have his work cut out for him as he tries to extract maximum production from his aging staff.

17. Chicago White Sox

This was not contrived: The White Sox are breathing down the Cubs' proverbial neck by the numbers and, because of the soft bottom of the AL Central, actually came out with a tiny edge in average simulation wins. Could this really be the year the White Sox catch the Cubs? For that to happen, the White Sox need to get development from their young starting pitchers beyond ace Lucas Giolito. Reynaldo Lopez, who careens from dominant to clueless from week to week, injury returnee Michael Kopech, second-year righty Dylan Cease -- these are the guys who will determine how much progress the White Sox make this season.

18. Milwaukee Brewers

Do the Brewers really know more than our projection systems? Well, of course they do. They prove it every year. That said, the team that featured baseball's most manic offseason appears to have taken a step back. The NL Central race is in reach for each of the top four teams, and might not be out of question for even the Pirates. But 2020 is the season in which we find out if Milwaukee's process really does have the Brewers operating on a higher plane than the rest of us.

19. Texas Rangers

That the Rangers project to be middling might not be a big surprise to anyone. But the perceived strengths and weaknesses of this club continue to be upside down. After adding Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, the Rangers have a top-to-bottom competent starting rotation that projects as a top-10 group. Yet despite the apparent stability to what's long been a problem area, Texas' strikeout-laden offense continues to look like a problem, particularly when you filter out Globe Life Park. Oh, about that: Texas will move across the parking lot this season to Globe Life Field, a new, retractable-roof facility that will be more habitable during the sweltering summer months.

The dimensions for the new park were released recently, and among the differences, the left-field power alley will be 18 feet shorter than the old park and the fences will be shorter. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that GLF will be a launching pad, especially if the roof is closed the majority of the time. Right now, we just don't know. For these projections, I've used a mix of factors from the other retractable-roof facilities while trying to account for the dimensions. Frankly, it's a crapshoot. But if the Rangers don't make more consistent contact, it won't matter anyway.

20. Cincinnati Reds

Speaking of upside-down teams: The Reds finally have an enviable pitching operation but need a lackluster offensive group to get better for Cincinnati to truly contend in a highly winnable division. If I'm a Reds fan, my fantasy is for Joey Votto to bounce back with one more MVP-level season to lead a resurgent attack. That might not be realistic, but Votto should at the very least continue to get on base. Newly signed Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama isn't a likely star -- he'll be 32 in April -- but he should be another good OBP source. What would really help is a breakout season from Nick Senzel.

21. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks and Brewers operate in a similar fashion except that in Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Josh Hader, Milwaukee has more star power. Arizona came up with some of that last season, its first in a while without franchise fixture Paul Goldschmidt, with the stunning MVP-level performance of Ketel Marte. Like the Brewers, Arizona had a deep roster of average-ish players, a great manager in Torey Lovullo and consistent ability to help players improve. Marte will be a fascinating player to watch in 2020. Even in this age of midcareer breakouts, few have gone from where Marte had been to where he was last season. Just how much of it is sustainable? The answer to that question might determine to what extent the D-backs are able to separate themselves from .500.

22. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays should be more competitive this season with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading a young, power-laden lineup that needs to cut down on its whiffs. The rotation has more name recognition with Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson joining the roster. The group appears to be long on control and short on missed bats. However, the bullpen, led by resurgent closer Ken Giles, looks like a strong group. Hanging with the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox probably isn't in the offing for 2020, but the Blue Jays should be a better club and fun to watch with Vlady, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. bashing now and well into the future.

23. Pittsburgh Pirates

After several years with mediocrity as an upside, the Pirates have turned their tight-fisted operation over to new GM Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton. They'll try to fine-tune what hasn't exactly been a formula for success in today's game, with a group of aggressive, high-contact hitters without elite power. They need another power breakout or two like the one they got last season from Josh Bell. Shelton was part of a staff in Minnesota that quickly developed the ability to help hitters and pitchers alike get better. The Pirates have had some success with that as well, and it has to continue with the new personnel, given their inability to paper over problems with spending.

24. Colorado Rockies

Projecting the Rockies is always complicated by their park factors, which is a battle their executives have been fighting ever since the franchise was founded. Thus I can't say with certainty that their offensive projection isn't at least in part a product of methodology. Subjectively, I'd guess the Rockies aren't the worst-hitting team in the majors. After all, they have Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story, and other teams, like the Orioles and Tigers, do not. However, it's not just me. FanGraphs ranks the Rockies' hitters 25th in projected WAR. Last season, Colorado finished 28th in road scoring. There are real problems here. And here's what the Rox did to bolster their attack since the end of last season: bupkis.

25. Kansas City Royals

The Royals appear to be more or less unchanged from last season, with regression accounting for any perceived bounce-back from their second consecutive 100-loss season. That and what looks like a more promising bullpen group. There is hope for some positive momentum this season if some of K.C.'s young pitchers start to break through. Also, the Royals have had some luck with second-chance development, with the headliner in that group being Jorge Soler. There are some candidates on the roster to follow that path and in doing so, validate the Royals' process. So keep an eye on Brett Phillips, Maikel Franco, Bubba Starling and the like. They aren't likely to propel the Royals to a Cinderella season or anything, but success with players like that validates what an organization is doing. And it's essential for teams in smaller markets.

26. Detroit Tigers

The rebuilding plans of the Tigers and Royals are kind of dovetailing together, with both teams at least a year behind the White Sox and probably more than that, since Chicago at least has a few players anointed as future stars. It's hard to say that about either Detroit or Kansas City just yet, though the Tigers hope they will soon have a couple of such candidates in recent top picks Casey Mize and Matt Manning. There are a couple of differences between K.C. and Detroit. The Tigers have added veterans C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop. It's tough to call either a bounce-back player -- both were pretty good last season yet still encountered a tepid free-agent market. Those two, along with 2019 breakout pitcher Matthew Boyd, give Al Avila some possible fodder for midseason deals, assuming Detroit doesn't defy this forecast. K.C. has been more focused on second-chance players who might help the team going forward.

27. San Francisco Giants

I still don't think the Giants did the wrong thing in hanging on to Madison Bumgarner last season. If you've got a chance to win, you try to win. Otherwise, what are you doing? And it wouldn't have exactly been a fitting swan song for Bruce Bochy without MadBum. But now Bumgarner has moved on to Arizona and Bochy is retired for the time being. The rebuild is fully on for the Giants as they become the team of Farhan Zaidi and Gabe Kapler. Zaidi has already proved that he can find diamonds in the rough after getting outstanding play in 2019 from Mike Yastrzemski and Donovan Solano. Well, Zaidi actually proved that when he was with the Dodgers, but he's proved that the ability is portable. A step back further into rebuild mode looks likely for San Fran this season, but take heart, Giants fans, this shouldn't be a long process. Zaidi is smart, the ballpark is a gem and the market is strong. This is an organization with an awful lot of resources.

28. Seattle Mariners

The Mariners went through a brisk makeover at the hands of Trader Jerry DiPoto, but it's unclear how all of this will add up. We've discussed before the problems that come when a spate of teams hits reset at the same time. Not all of those rebuilding plans will be successful. Contrast Seattle with Arizona, which also adopted a "soft rebuild" option, trying to restock the organization without bottoming out. It's a tough needle to thread. The Diamondbacks appear to lack elite star potential among their prospect base, at least in terms of having someone in the top 30 or so of the rankings. But they've remained competitive at the big league level. The M's, on the other hand, pulled off a coup by landing top-15 prospect Jarred Kelenic from the Mets and have another highly ranked prospect in Julio Rodriguez. But their "soft" rebuild saw a plummet to 94 losses in 2019. If you're going to lose that many games, wouldn't embracing a full-scale reset have made sense?

29. Miami Marlins

The Marlins have added a number of low-cost veterans to stabilize their position group. None of Francisco Cervelli, Jesus Aguilar, Matt Kemp or Corey Dickerson really moves the needle. New infielder Jonathan Villar might do so, but none of this adds up to a breakout season on paper. However, if some of Miami's toolsy prospects start to bob up into the majors, having some competent veterans around to learn from can't hurt. And if the veterans produce, they become trade fodder.

30. Baltimore Orioles

The new Orioles regime got a late start last winter, so this offseason is in some respects the start of the clock on the rebuild set upon by GM Mike Elias and his staff. The process will require patience. I didn't love the club's decision to sidestep Villar's raise in arbitration by dealing him to Miami. Trading good players when you don't have to rarely sits well with me. In the long run, it's of no real consequence. More important is the development of 2019 top pick Adley Rutschman and whomever the Orioles take with the No. 2 pick in Omaha, Nebraska, this June. On the field, the short term looks grim. Baltimore was the one team that failed to make the playoffs in any of my 10,000 simulations.