The day Gerrit Cole picks his next team will be a holiday for some team's fan base, for some team's front office. That team -- maybe the Yankees, maybe the Angels or the Dodgers or the Giants -- will have locked down a staff ace for most of the next decade, the best pitcher on the planet (currently) at the absolute apex of his career.
But the other teams will get a call from agent Scott Boras in which he says, in so many words: Gerrit is moving in another direction. That will be a hard moment, a hard day, and the losing bidders will have to quickly pivot.
It won't be easy. As one general manager asked the other day, "Where are all these teams going to find the starting pitching they need?"
It's not only the Yankees, Angels and Dodgers who need starting pitching. The White Sox are pushing to add two veteran starters. The Reds need help, and so will the Nationals if Stephen Strasburg doesn't re-sign. The Phillies, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres and others are looking for starting pitchers.
This is where the losers in the Cole bidding could turn:
The Yankees: A rival executive said, "I keep hearing that the Yankees need an ace -- but don't they already have that?"
It's a point well-taken. Luis Severino missed almost all of 2019 because of injuries, making just three starts, but in 2017 he finished third in the AL Cy Young voting, and he got some Cy Young votes in 2018 after posting a 3.39 ERA. He'll be 26 on Opening Day next year and is arguably in the prime of his career. Masahiro Tanaka, who slots in as the No. 2 or No. 3, has averaged 30 starts over the past four seasons, going 50-31 with a 3.98 ERA. Then there's James Paxton, who had a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts, including stretches of dominance. The Yankees have some depth, with top prospect Deivi Garcia, who reached Triple-A at age 20 last season; Jordan Montgomery, who made two big league appearances last year as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery; and J.A. Happ, who had a 4.91 ERA in 31 appearances.
But the Yankees' need for Cole might be about 2021 and beyond more than about 2020, because Tanaka, Paxton and Happ (who has a vesting option for 2021, based on him making 27 starts or throwing 165 innings in 2020) could all be free agents after next season. So if Cole signs elsewhere, the Yankees need to find another sturdy starter -- and they'll have to cull through a market that didn't inspire them to make a big move last winter or last summer. They could call the Diamondbacks about Robbie Ray, or the Indians about Corey Kluber. They could also join the bidding for Madison Bumgarner, although the Yankees, a franchise driven by analytics, would probably examine questions about regression in Bumgarner's stuff.
The Angels: Among the bidders for Cole, this is the team with the most acute need for starting pitching, following the tragic loss of Tyler Skaggs.
As of today, their rotation would comprise Andrew Heaney, Shohei Ohtani (bearing some limitations), the 23-year-old Griffin Canning and Dylan Bundy, just acquired from the Orioles. They need Cole, or Strasburg, with whom they've met. One thing about Strasburg: If he doesn't re-sign with Washington, the Angels could be the best possible fit for him. They have money and a willingness to spend, of course, but they're also located close to his hometown, and the private Strasburg could just go about his business under the shadow of Mike Trout, Ohtani, new manager Joe Maddon and others.
If they don't get Cole or Strasburg, they'll be desperate for depth, and they've demonstrated a willingness to use some of the prospect lot from their improved farm system to make that happen. If they don't get Cole, they could pursue a deal for Ray, or listen to Boston's effort to dump David Price's salary (Price played for Maddon in Tampa Bay). They would look at the next-best free agents -- Hyun-Jin Ryu, Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel.
If the starting pitcher game of musical chairs plays out and the Angels don't get one of the bigger names, keep in mind that owner Arte Moreno felt incredibly burned by the team's short-term free-agent signings last winter -- Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey. Some veteran looking to rebuild value on a one-year deal might not look so good to him.
The Dodgers: Like the Yankees, the Dodgers would probably be fine even if they can't coax Cole or Strasburg.
Walker Buehler has emerged as one of the National League's preeminent pitchers, and Clayton Kershaw is coming off a season of 29 appearances, 178⅓ innings and a 3.03 ERA. Julio Urias is 23, extremely talented and seemingly ready for a year of 25 starts. There's Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling, and the up-and-coming youngsters Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. They could work out a deal to re-sign Rich Hill, who will miss the start of the 2020 season after having an elbow procedure.
But the Dodgers are probably better than any organization at building infrastructure, and if they miss out on Cole and Strasburg, they'll probably keep looking around -- maybe for a younger starter relatively early in his climb up the service-time ladder. The Pirates' 27-year-old Joe Musgrove, for example, could be an interesting project for the Dodgers.
The Giants: There's less pressure on San Francisco to sign Cole than any of the other teams, because nobody really expects the Giants to contend next year, or even in 2021, as they cycle out of the core of championship remnants -- soon, they'll have to move on from Brandon Crawford, who is Cole's brother-in-law, Brandon Belt, and Hall of Fame candidate Buster Posey. Cole would be the new anchor to build around.
But if they don't land him, the Giants won't necessarily scramble to build a competitive rotation without him. San Francisco finished 29 games behind the Dodgers last year.