Once during every winter meetings, agent Scott Boras descends from his suite to answer media questions about his clients or some larger issue hovering over baseball. At least that's the billing this session is given.
But really, it's a performance, with some lines seemingly prepared and practiced, perhaps even laundered through some Boras Corp office focus group, or ad-libbed. You have to pick through a lot of the words and translate them to find the fragments of truth and substance. In fairness to Boras, a lot of baseball executives and players speak similar dialects of this opaque offseason language, albeit in a little less grandiose manner than the agent who represents Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon and others.
Some of the phrases that need decoding this time of year:
1. "There are ___ (fill in the blank with a number between 1 and 30) teams interested in ____ (fill in the blank with a player's name), according to a source."
This is a common refrain used by agents to create the specter of a fervor of interest, mostly for the benefit of what could be anxious family members of the player in question. That the agent is the source is transparent to everyone in the industry, because the agent is the only person in position to know, unimpeachably, how many teams have actually expressed interest in a given player.
And, of course, the number of teams with interest is mostly meaningless because a lot of teams have varying degrees of interest -- and some of it is in passing. During a meeting between an agent and a team, the two sides could quickly rattle through a list of clients -- "Sure, I could have interest" -- before focusing on the fourth quarter of the bowl game played on the big screen.
As one agent said this fall in speaking about a particular team and player, "They said they have interest. And I guess we're going to find out what that means."
2."Sure, my client is open to talking with anyone."
This is what agents have to say, because the more bidders there are, the better it is for the player. It's more likely that the player has already told the agent, Hell, no, I'm not playing there. My wife hates it there. Or, possibly, Hell, no, I'm not playing there. My wife's family is from there.
The odds are good that among the upper echelon of free agents, a number of teams have already been eliminated from consideration.
3. "Yes, I'd be open to talking about an extension."
This is a smart player refrain for anyone nearing free agency or the end of a long-term deal for two reasons: It's unlikely but still possible the response from your team will surprise you, and to tell reporters that you really don't want to stay with your current team means drawing the ire of some fans who are attuned to that kind of information. And who needs some drunk yelling at you from the bleachers all summer about your desire to play somewhere else?
This answer is so ubiquitous that it's meaningless.
4. "My client is just looking to go somewhere he has a chance to win."
Never forget the silent addendums: Yeah, he wants to win -- as long as that team pays within decent range of what his market value is. Yeah, he wants to win, but if a perennial loser has by far the best offer, we'll take a look at that, too.
5. "State taxes aren't really a factor."
State taxes can always be a factor. Executives from Texas teams know they work from an advantageous position, just as California officials know their state's taxes can be difference-making for some players.
6. "Who wouldn't love the opportunity to play for his hometown team?"
This is something that agents will say in an effort to lure another potential bidder. Actually, a lot of players prefer to have their own space to do their work, away from friends and family. I remember having a conversation with a longtime player who had the power to steer himself back to where he was born and raised, but passed. "It's just too much to deal with," he said, sounding like a scientist who preferred the solitude of a lab.
7. "My client would consider a multiyear deal."
Typically, this is said by an agent for a player who needs to take a one-year deal in order to rebuild value before hitting the market again. But yes, if there is a team willing to make a whopper offer in spite of last year's slump, the Captain Obvious agent says the player will listen.
Have the O's hit new lows?
Boog's BBQ has been part of Camden Yards since the ballpark opened in 1992, a grill owned and operated by Boog Powell, the hulking first baseman who played 14 seasons with the Baltimore Orioles from 1961 to 1974. Powell finished his career with the Indians and Dodgers, but it was entirely unremarkable that he returned to Baltimore to stand underneath the rising smoke beyond the center-field stands to serve ribs and cheerfully chat with fans. The strong relationship between the community and its adopted sons has always been unusual.
Frank Robinson, the Hall of Famer who died last winter, went back to the Orioles as a manager before graduating into their front office, and when I spoke to him over the phone the day he left the organization, he was so tearful that he could barely speak. Jim Palmer, the franchise's preeminent pitcher, has been part of the city's landscape for his entire adult life, as a broadcaster after his playing days were over. Cal Ripken Jr. and Billy Ripken were raised in the area, played in the big leagues for their father, and built a ballpark used for youth baseball -- and now Cal lives in Annapolis and Billy in Fallston, Maryland. Even Orioles who grew up elsewhere would live there year-round, including Ken Singleton, Mike Flanagan, Al Bumbry and others, out of the fondness for the people.
Within that longstanding context, the team's decision to waive Jonathan Villar, the team's best player last summer, is soulless, and incredibly disrespectful to what is left of the Orioles' fan base.
Villar, 28, is not an elite player, but he has been a good player for the Orioles, and was one of the few pieces of the 2019 team that any Baltimore fan could count on. Appearing in every Orioles game, Villar scored 111 runs, hit 24 homers among 62 extra-base hits, stole 40 bases, and according to this FanGraphs' metric, he was baseball's best baserunner in 2019. Villar generated 4.0 WAR, the highest on the team.
Because of all of that production, Villar was in line for a good raise through arbitration: According to MLBTradeRumors, Villar's salary might have climbed from $4.83 million in 2019 to about $10.4 million for 2020 if Baltimore had offered him arbitration.
But the Orioles don't want to pay him that, not when there is an enormous number of free-agent second basemen who can be signed much more cheaply, and not when the team is tanking. (If you prefer, the polite term is "rebuilding.")
Baltimore won 47 games in 2018, slashed its payroll dramatically for 2019 and won 54 games last summer. Think about that: The Orioles won 101 games over the past two seasons, fewer than the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees won in 2019, and the same number won by the Twins. Baltimore's run differential over 2018-19 is minus-522.
The Orioles lost 18 of their 19 games against the Yankees last season, and were outscored 151-83 -- an average of about 3 ½ runs per game. The Yankees' hitters had an OPS of 1.018 against Baltimore, higher than Anthony Rendon's OPS for the season. The competition was so one-sided that even New York fans seemed to lose their taste for blood: If you toss out the Opening Day crowd at Camden Yards of 44,182, the average attendance for Yankees-O's games in Baltimore dropped by almost 15% this year. As Sarah Langs of MLB.com notes, there were five games between the teams in Baltimore this year with an attendance below 20,000 -- two more than in any other year in the past 10 seasons.
The Orioles have been open to trading Villar, so the fact that they couldn't find a suitable deal tells you that the rest of the industry believes he would be at least somewhat overpaid with an arbitration of $10.4 million. But he should be worth more to the Orioles than any other team, as an accomplished, recognizable player -- and it's not as if Baltimore has many financial commitments. Only first baseman Chris Davis and pitcher Alex Cobb have money guaranteed for next season and beyond.
These are trying times for the Orioles' ownership, which suffered an enormous legal defeat in its recently resolved case against the Nationals and Major League Baseball. But for Orioles fans, that is a fight among billionaires that should have little bearing on their experience. What longtime Orioles fans see is that Adam Jones is gone, and so are Manny Machado and Buck Showalter, and it may be many years before Baltimore is again relevant in the hypercompetitive AL East.
Of all the players on the team last year, Villar provided the most bits and pieces of hope. In keeping with an Orioles ethos, he played every day. But for a pittance in savings, the team will apparently jettison Villar -- and let's be honest -- a couple of million dollars saved on second base in 2020 will have no bearing on whether the team is competitive in 2025. For baseball owners willing to cut payroll to almost a minimum and field a horrendous team, tanking means banking.
In other related news, this winter there will be no Orioles fanfest, an event where Baltimore baseball fans could migrate for a weekend every January, to get autograph from Boog, have a conversation with Cakes, to catch a glimpse of Earl or Elrod. The Orioles used to do an exceptional job in fostering familiarity with a player like Jonathan Villar, but instead, they're designing a team to lose.
The Astros and Cubs demonstrated this strategy might pay off, but in Baltimore it's a dangerous play. Whenever the club's leadership decides it wants to re-engage, it has to hope that fans who have been given no reason to hope will reciprocate. For now, the team is alienating customers, ignoring them, with a sales pitch that seems to be Give Us Your Money Because We Promise Our Underlying Analytics Are Sound.
News from around the major leagues
It might be that the best way for Major League Baseball to deal with the question of restructuring its minor league affiliations would be to punt on the issue for now, and deal with it in a few years. MLB and minor league baseball are nearing the end of a 10-year agreement, at the close of the 2020 season. If the sides work out a shorter deal -- three or four or five years -- then this would table the issue for a time, allowing for more discussion about facility quality and a possible reduction in the number of affiliates and minor leaguers.
MLB has bigger issues looming, most notably the increasingly ugly labor standoff with the MLB Players Association. The collective bargaining agreement is set to expire in December 2021.
• It's possible that left-hander Rich Hill could sign a contract this winter. But because he had primary revision surgery, he won't be ready for the start of next year, and he could wait to audition for teams in the spring as he makes his way back from the elbow procedure.
In an injury-plagued 2019 season with the Dodgers, Hill had a 2.45 ERA in 13 starts, striking out 72 and walking 18 in 58 ⅔ innings. The Dodgers like to compile a volume of starters, and Hill already has a working relationship with L.A.'s medical staff, so re-signing with the NL West champions on spec could make sense for both sides. But he also could be a fit in Boston, the area in which he lives in the offseason after playing high school ball less than 10 miles from Fenway Park. With injury questions hovering over Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox need a high volume of cheaper rotation options, and if Boston starts well in the 2020 season, he could represent a midseason upgrade.
• Sources say Major League Baseball is leaning toward altering a pickoff move rule, with the change meant to promote more action on the bases.
Under the forthcoming rule, left-handed pitchers will be required to step off the pitching rubber before attempting a pickoff to first base. Under the existing rule, left-handed pitchers have always had an inherent advantage over their right-handed counterparts because they could throw to first base without being required to break contact with the rubber -- and because of this, lefties like Andy Pettitte and Terry Mulholland perfected their pickoff moves that effectively forced baserunners to remain anchored to first.
MLB's hope is that because left-handers will have the same requirements as right-handed pitchers, baserunners can be more aggressive in taking leads. As more and more pitchers throw at higher velocity, hitters have adjusted their swings to try to drive the ball -- with the result being more homers, but also more strikeouts, and a reduction in other game action.
Last spring, MLB asserted its right to the union to implement a rule for 2020 that each reliever would have to face at least three batters, to curtail the growing practice of managers summoning a parade of matchup relievers. The number of relievers used in each game continues to grow in an effort to exploit the perceived matchup advantages, and conversely, starting pitchers are used less.
Some small-market teams have argued against this particular rule change, which they say works to the advantage of big-market teams that can more readily afford talented, accomplished relievers effective against right-handed and left-handed batters.
These two rules were among those tried in the independent Atlantic League in the second half of the 2019 season.