Zack Wheeler was the third-best starter on the market this winter, and if you're a contending team that didn't want to bid on either of the big two -- Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg -- because the contracts for those two pitchers are likely to reach seven years, he was the best option available. The Philadelphia Phillies seemed to agree, paying Wheeler more than anyone thought he'd get (I think) on a five-year deal and potentially moving this team, which has fallen short of the playoffs in two straight years in which it was projected to get there, closer to an actual postseason berth.
Wheeler has been a 4-win starter the past two seasons by both systems, ranking higher in FanGraphs' WAR because it tries to factor out the Mets' below-average defense, and the Phillies need everything he brings. They had just one starter who was worth more than 2 WAR last season, Aaron Nola, and only two starters, Nola and Zach Eflin, who threw at least 140 innings. As much as the Phillies' failure to reach the playoffs last season was a function of their Opening Day relief corps imploding with enough force to leave a crater in the bullpen, their rotation didn't help much either, and the lack of innings from their starters probably exacerbated the bullpen problem. As long as he's healthy, Wheeler is a 3.5-win improvement over whoever he's replacing in the Phillies' rotation.
Giving Wheeler five years feels really risky, though. He missed all of 2015 and 2016 and half of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery and multiple subsequent arm injuries that didn't require further surgeries, although since he returned at the start of 2018, he has made 60 starts and thrown 377⅔ innings with a 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP. He has qualified for the ERA title three times, having debuted in 2013, and the Phillies are now paying him to be healthy for five years, which seems optimistic.
That said, he's also a well above-average starter, one who will likely benefit a ton from playing in front of a better defense and working with a better catcher in Philly. He fits the Phillies' greatest need -- an impact starter who also should be able to soak up innings. Cole or Strasburg would have done that too, but I expect both to get six- to eight-year deals, and in that context signing Wheeler to five years, while still risky, may be less risky than the best alternatives.
This shouldn't be it for the Phillies, even if this ends up being their biggest move of the winter. Their rotation now has Nola, Wheeler, Eflin and a lot of question marks. Eflin seems like a solid third starter but was hurt by the Happy Fun Ball and some strange choices in his pitch mix last year. Vince Velasquez has never qualified for the ERA title and doesn't have enough of a breaking ball to get lefties out consistently. Jake Arrieta will be coming back from season-ending elbow surgery and was not very effective prior to that. Spencer Howard, the team's best pitching prospect, probably won't be ready for the majors until midseason. The Phillies are probably still a starter short of a full Opening Day rotation worthy of contention, and that's before considering the depth most contending teams require to get through a season.
One of those depth options, Cole Hamels, signed with the Atlanta Braves the same day on a one-year, $18 million deal that seems like it could be great value for the team, especially given the limited risk of any deal that covers just one year. Hamels is 36 and not as durable as he once was, but even in his two seasons interrupted by injuries (2017 and 2019), he still cleared 140 innings and was comfortably above average. Even getting a 110 ERA+ -- his low-water mark in the past 10 seasons -- in 150 innings would justify this salary for the Braves, the defending NL East champs and a team that has a lot of starting pitching prospects it could package together in a deal for a bat.
Adding Hamels makes making that kind of trade much easier, as he gives the Braves four clear starters going into the season. That means they have four or maybe five prospects or young major leaguers -- Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Patrick Weigel and maybe Ian Anderson -- who could, in theory, be their fifth starter in April. I would think any trade package that includes two of those five would get the attention of teams looking to move established players who are a year or two from free agency.