The Cincinnati Reds finished 12th in the National League in on-base percentage (OBP) in 2019, ahead of two teams in strong pitchers' parks and the underpowered Miami Marlins. So of course, the Reds just committed four years to a 31-year-old hitter without a position who has posted a .320 or better OBP twice in seven full seasons in the majors. Mike Moustakas might have been a good fit for a lot of clubs, but the Reds were not one of them.
Moustakas at least had a banner season in 2019 -- his second-best offensive year -- and he continued to play solid-average defense at third base. He deserved multiyear offers, especially after two winters of one-year deals, and it's a good sign for MLB's torpid labor market that he got one. But this deal for this team is hard to fathom.
The two main problems for Cincinnati: Moustakas probably exacerbates the team's OBP problem rather than helping it; and he has all of 47 career games at second base, which is the only place the Reds might realistically play him -- and doing so forces them to leave Nick Senzel in center field. Moustakas was more patient last year, his one full season with the Milwaukee Brewers, taking the highest percentage of pitches seen of his career and posting his best walk rate (although it still was just a shade over league average), and he still is a weak spot in the lineup against lefties.
The Reds have to be betting that his increased patience last year wasn't just something related to the Brewers or a one-year fluke but is instead a new skill acquired at age 30 that he will carry forward. That's because if he doesn't maintain it, their lineup is only marginally better; their second basemen, led by the non-tendered Jose Peraza, had a collective OBP of .288 last year.
They're also likely to play Moustakas at second base, a position he has barely played and one that he doesn't seem well-suited to play going forward, given the position's requirement for lateral agility and the fact that his greatest defensive strength, his throwing arm, isn't that helpful there. That's adding him to an already jumbled defensive alignment.
The Reds probably landed the best player in the 2016 draft class in Senzel, an above-average defensive third baseman, but they committed to Eugenio Suarez with a long-term contract. They sent Senzel on a positional carousel that took him through second base -- which seemed like it would be a good fit -- and center, where he was well below-average last year when he wasn't hurt. Second base isn't the safest position, either; but if I had to bet on where Senzel would be more likely to be an average defender, I'd take second base over center field. Now, that's probably off the table for good, unless Moustakas is so bad at second that the Reds bump him to another position.
So for $16 million a year, they're maybe half a win better -- gaining some OBP over their deadweight second basemen from last year, and gaining power; but giving back runs on defense and likely keeping Senzel at a worse position. It might move them past the Brewers -- who have taken two hits now with the losses of Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal -- and the Chicago Cubs, but neither of those teams has started to address their offseason needs. The Reds are too many moves from contention right now, and this is more of a minor upgrade at a major price, especially since they're paying through Moustakas' age-34 season.
• I was a big Jurickson Profar fan back when he was a prospect, but he simply hasn't been the same guy since he returned from a shoulder injury that cost him two full seasons of development and wrecked his throwing. He was heading for a non-tender when the San Diego Padres picked him up for backup catcher Austin Allen, a capable reserve with real power, to take over at second base now that they've traded Luis Urias.
Profar still has a solid approach, but he doesn't make enough hard contact any longer, and until that changes, it's hard to see him as a league-average regular at second. There was some bad luck in his stat line last year -- the .218 BABIP was extreme even for his batted-ball profile -- but this isn't anywhere near the player Profar was once projected to become. I don't blame the Padres for trying, especially at the cost of a useful reserve player they don't need right now, but we're three years into Profar's return and this might just be what he is.