Tony Clark's decision to make a mountain out of a molehill this week was like a preview of coming attractions for the next two years, a trailer for the forthcoming labor rhetoric. It seems just about impossible to find anyone who takes the words of Atlanta Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos as a face-value indicator of collusion, rather than a sloppy and imprecise description of the general conversations that occur annually between teams.
But this is where we are in the countdown to a showdown that careens toward inevitability, given the many unproductive months in the recent union-MLB relationship. If Clark and the players work from the Fehr-Orza playbook of 1994, then we will see a strike authorization for sometime in the second half of the 2021 season, July or August.
Hopefully, the two sides will have some meaningful discourse before then. In the interim, each side can take steps on its own to improve a product that nobody seems especially satisfied with -- least of all the fans, who continue to slowly trickle away, as reflected in the gradual erosion of attendance and World Series television ratings.
So as the two sides wait for the final game of labor chicken to be played, they can get their own houses in order.
For Major League Baseball, there should be a mandate to address the tanking problem and other noncompetitive behaviors. The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs were pioneers in the strategy, earning industry praise and championship rings, but they have also inspired group-thought that if you aren't good enough to win a World Series, you should quit trying. To paraphrase Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, there might be more competition for the bottom of the standings than the top.
But it makes for an absolutely awful and nearly unwatchable brand of baseball. Four teams won more than 100 games, and on the other pole, a third of the teams lost 90 or more games. The Tigers lost 114, the Orioles 108 (incredibly, an improvement over their 115-loss season of 2018), the Marlins 105. The Yankees obliterated Baltimore, winning 17 of 19 and nearly lapping the Orioles in runs, outscoring them 151-83. The Marlins lost 15 of 19 to the Braves, and 15 of 19 to Washington. The Tigers managed to keep the Indians in the AL Central race: Cleveland took 18 of 19 games against Detroit.
The Tigers scored 38 runs in their 19 games against the Indians. An old saying in baseball was that every team was assured of winning at least 50 games and losing 50 games before each season, and what happened in the other 62 determined the difference between good and bad. That premise is increasingly obsolete. The notion of a foregone conclusion might occur in college football or the first rounds of the NBA playoffs, but it should never happen in a regular-season baseball game -- and too often, it does.
The starting pitchers used to be a great potential equalizer to offset talent disparity between two teams, but cannot be anymore because of the advent of bullpen strategy. So now when teams slash payroll and are designed to be bad, they're really, really bad.
It would be awesome if there was a collaborative spirit between MLB and the union to address the problem of tanking together -- the fact is, the players' association inexplicably failed to make it a priority in the negotiations of 2016. But the issue was born organically among the teams and the teams owe it to the greater good to address it, by doing all that they can to get better. The 2019 Rays, or the Athletics in Billy Beane's tenure, should serve as a working example for other teams that there is an obligation to try to win.
The same is true with service-time manipulation, which is really wage abuse hidden under a more polite moniker. Loopholes in the collective bargaining agreement allow teams to keep major-league-caliber players in the minors and depress service time -- to delay arbitration and free-agency eligibility -- but in the big picture, it's a dishonorable practice.
On the players' side, there needs to be a recognition that the slogging pace of play can make the game unwatchable for a lot of would-be fans. Privately, a lot of players, staffers and club officials complain about the way the game can drag, with eight or 10 minutes between slivers of action.
The swing-and-miss aspect of the game is mostly here to stay, because pitchers throw harder than ever and hitters have altered their swings to adapt to the higher velocity. But year to year, the amount of time between pitches grows. Generally, pitchers take longer than ever to get on the rubber and look for a sign, and generally, a lot of hitters will step out of the box, lingering out of routine or superstition or some increasingly slow process of mentally sorting through pitch-sequencing possibilities. Some players will tell you: That's what I need to do to get ready.
The truth is that the lethargic players need to get over themselves. Get on the mound and throw the next pitch; stay in the batter's box and get ready to hit.
And if that seems incomprehensible, they can think of it this way. How would they feel about a waiter in a restaurant, or anyone selling something, saying he or she needs longer to get ready, and the customers can wait? The baseball product belongs to the players; the players control it. They have the power to make the sport more palatable to the patrons, by competing at a faster pace.
But the games continue to drag, ever longer. Any parent to a teenager knows this: 15-year-olds are not going to sit through four-hour games, because there are a growing number of alternatives, via the magic of phones. A video. A different game. Text chats.
The players need to work harder to draw fans in, because there is more and more competition for entertainment dollars and time that Major League Baseball could once take for granted. The union members shouldn't need a nagging note from commissioner Rob Manfred to make this happen.
News from around the majors
As one evaluator noted, the most relevant model for trade conversations about Mookie Betts of the Boston Red Sox might be the process of Arizona's trade of Paul Goldschmidt last fall. At the time, Goldschmidt was one year away from reaching free agency, and with the Cardinals desperate for a middle-of-the-order hitter -- a star offensive player -- the Diamondbacks pried a three-player package in return for the first baseman, plus a draft pick:
1. Luke Weaver, a former first-round pick who had a 2.94 ERA in 12 starts for Arizona in a 2019 season curtailed by a UCL strain.
2. Catcher Carson Kelly, who had an .826 OPS in 111 games for the Diamondbacks last season.
3. Infielder Andy Young, who hit .271 in 133 games at the top of Arizona's minor league system.
Arizona used the competitive balance pick it got from the Cardinals in the deal to pick outfielder Dominic Fletcher, who had an excellent professional debut for Kane County.
The evaluator noted the history of Chaim Bloom, the new head of baseball operations for the Red Sox, in how imaginative he was in picking players and putting together deals. "I'm sure he'll have a good sense of what the best possible trade [for Betts] might be," the evaluator said.
The more pertinent question might be which teams will be willing to step up and trade prospects for Betts, in the face of an enormous one-year salary -- Betts will probably get somewhere in the range of $27 million to $30 million in arbitration -- and the likelihood that the right fielder will hit free agency.
A reminder of just how good of a player Betts is: Over the past three seasons, only Mike Trout has generated more fWAR (25.4) than Betts' total of 22.4, which surpasses those of Christian Yelich (20.0), Anthony Rendon (19.9) and Alex Bregman (19.5).
• Some observations from evaluators about the free-agent market:
1. There is big-time elite talent available, with Gerrit Cole, Rendon and perhaps Stephen Strasburg available for open bidding, if Strasburg is willing to leave Washington. "It's a great 'A' group," said one evaluator. "But the 'B' group isn't that great." And there is a high volume of third-tier players.
2. There is a complete saturation of catchers beyond their 30th birthday, which will naturally depress the signing numbers for a lot of them. From Russell Martin to Jason Castro, from Austin Romine to World Series hero Robinson Chirinos, there are 18 catchers past their 30th birthday available to the highest bidder.
The 31-year-old Yasmani Grandal is far and away the preeminent player in the group, coming off a season in which he again ranked among the best at framing, while posting a .380 on-base percentage and hitting 28 homers. The Atlanta Braves are among the teams expressing interest; a tandem of Grandal and Tyler Flowers could be exceptional. (Flowers re-signed with the Braves last week, on a one-year deal.)
3. On the other hand, there are very few shortstops, and Didi Gregorius appears to be the best of the group, which should help him.
• With Francisco Lindor headed for a big raise in arbitration, the Indians will again be operating under a tight winter budget, with their focus on someone who could play second base, or third; Jose Ramirez will play third or second, depending on whom the Indians sign.
• The Angels have indicated to other teams they are willing to discuss a possible swap of prospects in their pursuit of a starting pitcher.
• The 39-year-old Rajai Davis spoke in September about possibly retiring, after playing in 14 seasons in the big leagues. He had 25 at-bats for the Mets last season, after serving most of the year in the minors. But Davis is now preparing for another year as a player, full steam ahead.