For the second year in a row, the top of the winter's free-agent class is extremely strong. Last year had two 26-year-old superstars -- Bryce Harper and Manny Machado -- who would end up signing deals of at least 10 years, while this year's group is a bit older with more promise of immediate impact. I think this year's class might be a little bit deeper, especially in starting pitching, although I also see a lot of players who either are or might soon need to be designated hitters, a class of players that has had a hard time finding suitors in recent offseasons.
1. Anthony Rendon, 3B
2020 age: 30 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 6.3 | Career: 27.3
Rendon could have been the No. 1 pick back in the loaded 2011 draft, but he battled a shoulder injury that whole spring and slipped to sixth, where the Nationals were more than happy to select him. The injury bug affected his early career, but his past four seasons have delivered to the Nationals everything they could have hoped for when they drafted him. Rendon has averaged 146 games a year, hit .299/.384/.528 and produced more than 20 WAR, with 2019 his best year yet at 6.3 bWAR/7.0 fWAR. He's an elite hitter across the board, with outstanding plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills as well as plus power, and has a simple swing that I think will hold up better as he ages than many swings would.
The two knocks on him going into free agency are his defense, which has declined from great to merely good over the past two years, and his age, as he's heading into his age-30 season, and any long-term deal will take him to age 35 or beyond. He's very clearly a $30 million-plus-per-year player right now, and should be for several more seasons thanks to his OBP skills, his power and his ability to play a skill position well. The question is how long might he hold serve as an all-around superstar.
Signed: Angels, seven years, $245 million
2. Gerrit Cole, RHP
2020 age: 29 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 6.9 | Career: 23.4
We saw the best of Cole this postseason, and a little bit of how things can go wrong for him. The lure for teams is that for the past two years he has been a lot more of the former than the latter now that the Astros have helped unlock the ace within. Houston traded for Cole after the 2017 season and got him to pitch up more with his four-seamer, which led to a lot more missed bats and fewer pitches out of the zone. He's also more consistent mechanically, which could be a result of him not overthrowing when in trouble in the count and losing his delivery in the process.
FanGraphs' pitch values have Cole's fastball as the most valuable in the majors in 2019, worth about 36 runs above average, and his slider in the top 10 ... yet he has, or I guess has had, a plus changeup that has become his least-used pitch. I don't think this means Cole would be even better with a different pitch mix, but he's not going to average 97 mph forever. Maybe knowing that changeup was there before would give a team more confidence in giving him the kind of deal he's going to demand -- seven years or more at $30 million a year would probably be the starting point.
Aces like Cole do not hit the market often, but he is a rotation maker and fits the primary need of multiple contenders this winter.
Signed: Yankees, nine years, $324 million (opt-out after 2024)
3. Stephen Strasburg, RHP
2020 age: 31 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 6.3 | Career: 32.6
Strasburg peaked at the right time, reaching 200 innings in 2019 for just the second time in his career and posting his second-best WAR by both versions, right as he heads into a market that has only one starter clearly better than he is available in free agency (Cole). Strasburg has always had this upside, and with almost 33 WAR for his career, he has more than justified going first in the 2009 draft, even though Mike Trout is at more than double that WAR total.
The key to Strasburg's success this past year was his increased use of his two best off-speed pitches -- his power curveball, which was the most valuable curveball in the majors in 2019 per FanGraphs, and his plus changeup with good arm speed and late fading action. So while he still throws hard, averaging 93.9 mph on his four-seamer according to Statcast, he has been much better by throwing other pitches.
The big knock on Strasburg is his lack of durability. In eight full seasons, he has qualified for the ERA title just three times, falling three innings short in a fourth. He reached the threshold just twice in the past five seasons, missing about 10 starts in 2018 with injuries to his shoulder and neck. The 2017 and 2019 versions of Strasburg were $30 million pitchers; it's merely a question of how much of that version you think you're going to see over the next seven or so years.
Signed: Nationals, seven years, $245 million
4. Zack Wheeler, RHP
2020 age: 30 | B/T: L/R
2019 WAR: 3.5 | Career: 9.7
Wheeler has pulled a Mike Minor-type turnaround of sorts, missing two full seasons and a good chunk of a third to come back and become a mid-rotation or better starter. Wheeler has ripped off two well-above-average full seasons as a starter since his return, making 60 starts over 2018 and 2019, with career-high fastball velocity in 2019 as well. He's a fastball/breaking ball guy who has never quite had the average third pitch to go with them; FanGraphs has his splitter just a shade below average the past few years, and he does have enough of a platoon split to factor into valuing or projecting him.
I get the sense he's going to get four-year offers, and, hey, good for him, but the last time he went four seasons without missing significant time to injury was 2011 to 2014. Even three years feels like a bold bet on him staying healthy, although he's a $20 million-plus pitcher when he does.
Signed: Phillies, five years, $118 million
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
2020 age: 33 | B/T: R/L
2019 WAR: 5.1 | Career: 13.5
Ryu's comeback season was perfectly timed, as he's heading into free agency off a year in which he led the majors in ERA and was worth about 5 WAR across 29 starts. It also marked the first time he had pitched a full season since 2014, and only the second time he pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title (after his rookie year of 2013). Despite missing most of the previous four years, he was throwing as hard as ever in 2019, and his changeup was the third most valuable one in the majors, per FanGraphs -- good enough that he is still very effective against lefties even without a plus breaking ball, as he has ditched his slider in favor of a true curveball.
Ryu is 32 now, has already had a major operation to repair the labrum in his throwing shoulder plus a minor operation on his left elbow, and missed more than half of 2018 with a torn groin muscle. If you could sign him for a year, he'd be a $25 million guy, even accounting for the risk that he'll miss time to injury. If he's going to get three years, I'd look for a discount on the AAV to reflect his age and his lack of a track record of durability.
Signed: Blue Jays, 4 years, $80 million
6. Didi Gregorius, SS
2020 age: 30 | B/T: L/R
2019 WAR: 0.6 | Career: 16.6
I'm going to make the bold claim that we should just ignore Gregorius' 2019 season, as he was coming off Tommy John surgery and never performed anywhere near the level he showed in 2017 and 2018, when he was worth more than 4 WAR per season and showed big power against right-handed pitching while playing plus defense. There is a risk in assuming that he'll just get back to that level, but the limited history of position players undergoing Tommy John surgery indicates that players typically return to their prior level of offensive performance.
He's a mediocre-to-low OBP hitter with plus power, especially for a shortstop, and a below-average runner with great instincts who has shown plus range since he was a prospect. He's also the only every-day middle infielder available in free agency this winter, and that alone might push him to four or five years at $20 million per, which would be a bargain if he gets all the way back to his 2017-18 production.
Signed: Phillies, one year, $14 million
7. Josh Donaldson, 3B
2020 age: 34 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 6.1 | Career: 44.8
Alex Anthopoulos' one-year gamble on a Donaldson bounce-back paid off in spades, as the former MVP played in 155 games, was worth 6.1 bWAR/4.9 fWAR and even played above-average defense at third base, all after a 2018 season ruined by shoulder and calf injuries. Now 34, Donaldson might be in line for the big payday he never got during his peak years because he didn't play his first full season until he was 27.
He's starting to have a little trouble with good velocity, but made up for it last year with outstanding ball/strike recognition. The market will probably give him three years, but I would project him to decline over that period, and would sign him if I expected to contend in 2020 and was willing to deal with decreasing production -- or perhaps a move to first base.
Signed: Twins, four years, $92 million (team option for 2024)
8. Yasmani Grandal, C
2020 age: 31 | B/T: B/R
2019 WAR: 2.5 | Career: 16.1
Grandal is an analytical favorite thanks to great framing and consistently high walk rates, but he gets mixed reviews from teams that have employed him for (1) how he has worked with pitchers -- a particular complaint from Padres and Dodgers personnel -- and (2) below-average blocking skills. He's a great hitter for a catcher, and the balance of all of his defensive pros and cons tips in his favor as well. He also has been extremely durable at a position that takes a physical toll on players. He's an easy three-win upgrade for the majority of teams in the majors, and there isn't another clear every-day catcher available in free agency. Even with his mixed reputation among pitchers, he should get the three-to-four-year deal he sought last winter and couldn't find.
Signed: White Sox, four years, $73 million
9. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
2020 age: 30 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 3.6 | Career: 13.4
Like so many free agents this winter, Odorizzi is coming off the best year of his career. But he also has a solid track record of durability that few starters on the market can match. He has made at least 28 starts in six straight years and has thrown at least 143 innings in all of those seasons, reaching 159 innings in five of the six. (The low-water mark came not because he was hurt but because he wasn't that effective.)
Odorizzi worked on improving his mechanics last winter, trying to sync his upper and lower halves, and saw his velocity jump on all pitches, while the Twins also had him work more with four-seam fastballs up and cutters down or down/glove-side, making his fastball a true out pitch for him. He's also throwing more strikes and did an exceptional job of keeping the Happy Fun Ball in the park in 2019. He'll turn 30 in March, has that history of taking the ball, and is such a good athlete that it's easier to accept this Odorizzi as the new baseline. He should see four-year offers that push him past $80 million.
Re-signed: Accepted one-year, $17.8 million qualifying offer to return to Twins
10. J.D. Martinez, DH/OF (Did not opt out of contract and will stay with Red Sox)
2020 age: 32 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 3.3 | Career: 23.9
If Martinez had opted out of the last three years and $62.5 million on his contract, I would have argued that he would have been doing the Red Sox a favor. As good as he has been for Boston, the Red Sox could have put that money to far better use elsewhere on the roster, and they have some young players they could have cycled through the DH spot in his absence. Martinez's offense, although still well above average, dropped quite a bit from 2018, and he was just third or fourth among AL designated hitters in offensive production, depending on whether you count Austin Meadows. His average exit velocity dropped, his hard-hit rate dropped and his rate of "barrels" -- an MLB-defined metric that refers to balls hit within a joint launch angle/exit velocity range that's very likely to produce hits -- was the lowest he's had in the past five seasons. He's still good, but players with his skill set often don't age well.
11. Madison Bumgarner, LHP
2020 age: 30 | B/T: R/L
2019 WAR: 2.5 | Career: 32.5
Will Bumgarner be paid for the pitcher he is today or the one he was five years ago? Granted, he's still a solid mid-rotation starter and should be highly courted even with the two aces on the market this winter -- Bumgarner's first full season since 2016 saw him cross 200 innings, show a tick more velocity and generate more than 3 WAR for the Giants, who elected to keep him rather than trade him at the July deadline. He has become more homer-prone between his reduced stuff and the juice in the ball itself, although his curveball has become so much more effective than his slider -- relying less on velocity than the latter pitch -- that I wonder whether that will define his next phase as a pitcher. He threw his curve 18% of the time in 2019, but it accounted for just one of the 30 homers he allowed. As long as he checks out physically, he's probably in line for offers of three to four years in the range of $18-20 million a year.
Signed: Diamondbacks, five years, $85 million
12. Mike Moustakas, 3B/2B
2020 age: 31 | B/T: L/R
2019 WAR: 3.2 | Career: 17.1
Moustakas has signed one-year contracts the past two winters, but after posting the second-best wOBA and wRC+ of his career last year while playing solid-average defense at third, he really should be in line for multiyear offers this winter. He has become a patient enough hitter against right-handers that he's no longer an OBP liability, and while I don't think he suddenly figured out how to hit lefties in 2019 (when he had a reverse platoon split), he has at least been competent enough the past two years that he doesn't need a platoon partner. He can fill in at first base as well and can move to second in an emergency, adding a little to his value. He'll play at 31 next year, so a three-year deal probably doesn't get you too far into his decline years, and perhaps the uptick in his walk rate will compensate for any loss of bat speed in that time span.
Signed: Reds, 4 years, $64 million
13. Nicholas Castellanos, RF/DH
2020 age: 28 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.7 | Career: 7.1
Castellanos went from Detroit to the Cubs for two fringe prospects at the trade deadline and promptly had the month of his life: He hit .348/.385/.713 in August, with a career high of 11 homers in the month, four more than he had hit in any other month in his entire major league career. He regressed much of the way back to his normal level in September; his launch angle was no different with the Cubs, and he made just slightly harder contact, not enough to explain the big spike in his production. He's an average power guy with low walk rates and a below-average defender in right. He does have good bat-to-ball skills and a swing that should generate more hard contact; he just lacks a track record. As an average-ish regular, he's probably a $15 million-a-year guy, maybe a little more if you believe there's untapped upside here for a 28-year-old.
Signed: Reds, four years, $64 million (opt-out after 2020)
14. Marcell Ozuna, OF
2020 age: 29 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.2 | Career: 19.5
The Cardinals traded for Ozuna coming off a 5-WAR season with the Marlins, and while he has been productive for St. Louis, he hasn't repeated that career year in which he hit .312 off a .355 BABIP, neither of which is likely to recur regularly. He's a solid regular with plus power and erratic walk rates, chronically vulnerable to sliders down and away (sliders accounted for more than 40% of his swing-and-misses in 2019, the vast majority out of the strike zone), a 55-grade defender in left and a 45 defender in center. Because he'll play at just 29 next year, however, he's one of the better candidates on this market for a long-term deal of four years or more, with the main risk being that if he loses any bat speed, he'll quickly become a bench player.
Signed: Braves, one year, $14 million
15. Michael Pineda, RHP
2020 age: 31 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.5 | Career: 11.0
Pineda returned from missing a year and a half due to Tommy John surgery to have a very good bounce-back year for the Twins, one in which he compensated a little for lost arm speed with better command and a much-improved changeup. The safe approach is that this is what he is going forward, a starter good for 2-3 WAR who has the size for durability but did miss a lot of time with one injury. But I could see one or more teams hoping that another year since the surgery will mean increased velocity, which would help not just his fastball but his slider, once a plus pitch but below average last year.
Pineda still has about five weeks left on a suspension for a positive test for the diuretic hydrochlorothiazide (often prescribed to reduce high blood pressure), so he's available for only five months out of the 2020 season, although he will be postseason-eligible. I'd pay him like a mid-rotation starter, and probably go to three years to spread out any discounting for his five-sixths of a season in 2020.
Signed: Twins, two years, $20 million
16. Kyle Gibson, RHP
2020 age: 32 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 0.3 | Career: 9.6
Gibson had a strange year in 2019, with a career-high strikeout rate and career-best average velocity on his fastball (up to 93.8 mph thanks to some offseason training), but also career-worst BABIP and HR/fly ball rates, so his ERA of 4.84 put him barely above replacement level and his FIP (which assumes some of those BABIP and HR spikes were random or bad luck) had him around league average. His slider is an out pitch and he does get ground balls, but his fastball gets hit very hard -- more than half of the homers he gave up and nearly 70% of the batted balls he allowed with 100+ mph exit velocity came on fastballs, which he threw only about half the time. He has been durable, throws hard and has that swing-and-miss pitch; he's a good candidate for a change of scenery with a new team that changes his pitching plan to see if there's more in here.
Signed: Rangers, three years, $30 million
17. Brett Gardner, OF
2020 age: 36 | B/T: L/L
2019 WAR: 4.0 | Career: 41.6
Gardner was a launch-angle guy before it was cool. A no-power slap hitter at the College of Charleston, he hit just nine homers in more than 1,700 minor league plate appearances, and through his age-29 season in the majors, he had 23 homers in more than 2,200 PA. His 28 homers in 2019 alone marked a career high, even though he turned 36 in August, and despite losing speed over the years, he's still a capable regular in center. His age might -- or should -- limit the duration of contract offers he receives, but for two years and $40 million or so, he'd be a great every-day center-field option for a lot of teams, including his only major league employer to date.
Signed: Yankees, one year, $12.5 million (team option for 2021)
18. Wade Miley, LHP
2020 age: 33 | B/T: L/L
2019 WAR: 2.0 | Career: 10.8
Since the start of 2018, Miley has thrown 248 innings with a 3.52 ERA (126 ERA+, so, way above league average) and 4.21 FIP, while he hasn't missed a start since July 12 of last year. His cutter, his best pitch in 2018, was right around average in 2019, while his changeup turned out to be his most effective pitch, with hitters swinging and missing at nearly 18% of the changeups he threw. The cutter/changeup profile is unusual, but he has made it work for more than a full season now, and the underlying data on those two pitches especially is positive -- and his curveball isn't too bad either. He has had no luck finding multiyear offers the past two winters, but he is worthy of a two-to-three-year deal at well over $10 million per.
Signed: Reds, two years, $15 million (team option for 2022)
19. Tanner Roark, RHP
2020 age: 33 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.0 | Career: 19.3
Roark is as steady a starter as it gets, with four straight seasons of 31 or more starts, 165 or more innings and 2-plus fWAR, although the leaguewide home run surge hasn't done him any favors. Even a midseason trade to Oakland in 2019 couldn't help him keep the ball in the park, as he gave up 14 homers in just 10 starts for the A's. His slider, long his best pitch, had less break in 2019, which made it less effective but also could have been the result of the altered baseball this past season. He's a durable fourth starter as is, but if MLB does make the baseball less aerodynamic for 2020, look for Roark to benefit more than the average pitcher does.
Signed: Blue Jays, two years, $24 million
20. Cole Hamels, LHP
2020 age: 36 | B/T: L/L
2019 WAR: 3.0 | Career: 58.7
Hamels wasn't quite the same guy in 2019, perhaps related to the shoulder fatigue that eventually caused him to skip a start in late September, with his average fastball down a little and the pitch less effective overall. He has had a plus-plus changeup since he was first drafted in 2002 and his cutter has proved to be a solid second weapon to help him generate more ground balls, but his fastball has become more hittable and his walk rate last year matched his career worst. He'll pitch at the age of 36 next year and still has enough velocity to be effective for a few more years, but he needs to keep adjusting his pitch mix to get away from the four-seamers that hitters squared up too often in 2019.
Signed: Braves, one year, $18 million
21. Ivan Nova, RHP
2020 age: 33 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.1 | Career: 13.9
He's a durable fourth or fifth starter type who rarely walks guys but has stopped missing bats, with a career-worst strikeout rate in 2019. Nova's curveball has long been his most effective pitch, but it wasn't working for him in 2019, with a lower spin rate than he had in 2015-17, missing fewer bats and getting hit harder, so he used it less often than ever. If a team thinks that's because of the Happy Fun Ball, he's a good low-salary flier to take, since he provides innings anyway and might see his strikeout rate increase if he can spin the curveball like he did before.
Signed: Tigers, one year, $1.5 million
22. Howie Kendrick, UT
2020 age: 36 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.6 | Career: 32.9
He's 36, but Kendrick made a little tweak to his swing in 2019 that boosted his launch angle and resulted in a bona fide career year, and could even get him a two-year deal this winter. He gets his hands a little lower before coming through the zone, with the results obvious -- career highs in average, OBP, slugging and homers, as well as his best marks in the Statcast era for exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate and in expected outcomes on balls in play. He didn't play a full season, and the Nats spotted him well, using him against lefties (against whom he hit .376/.421/.615) and only some righties; I'd consider that a template for how to use him going forward. He's still average or so at second base, although I imagine that won't last much longer; a team that has a spot at second and a solid utility infielder could find good value here.
Signed: Nationals, one year, $6.25 million
23. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, OF
2019 age: 28
2018 WAR: N.A. / Career: N.A.
The slugging left fielder for Yokohama in the Japanese leagues was posted this winter after a down year in which he didn't even lead his team in home runs -- Neftali Soto and Jose Lopez both outhomered him. He was second in the Central League in strikeouts, fanning in 25.3% of his plate appearances. With a heavy build that's trending the wrong way, he's limited to left field or first base, although he has played a little third over the past few years. Although he's not out on his front side like many NPB hitters (the way Ichiro would swing), the way he rolls his front foot makes me question how well he'll hit lefties in MLB. He has plus power with patience, enough that some team might be willing to try him out for a year and see whether it can work with him on keeping his front side strong through contact.
Signed: Rays, two years, $12 million + posting fee.
24. Edwin Encarnacion, DH/1B
2020 age: 37 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.8 | Career: 42.6
Encarnacion is about to turn 37 and should be used only as a designated hitter, but his power/patience combination has held up quite well even well into his 30s. He doesn't crush fastballs the way he did three or four years ago, yet he still can catch up to enough of them that he's not vulnerable to pure velocity -- at least not so far. I'm always skeptical of bat-only guys in their mid-to-late 30s, and given the market we've seen the past two winters, I think most GMs tend to agree, so I'd expect Encarnacion to get a lot of one-year offers from American League teams, maybe for up to $10 million.
Signed: White Sox, one year, $12 million (team option for 2021)
25. Avisail Garcia, OF
2020 age: 29 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.0 | Career: 7.0
Garcia had one huge year, fueled by a BABIP spike to .392 that couldn't last and a drop in his strikeout rate that turned out to be a fluke, and outside of that has played like a fourth outfielder the rest of his career. He has fringe-average power, doesn't walk enough (career walk rate of 5.9%, with a 5.8% showing in 2019), and plays average defense in an outfield corner. He'll turn 29 in June, young enough that I'm sure someone else will try to take a shot at him and see whether it can at least get more loft in his swing for power. He's probably just the player he has been outside of that outlier season, a good extra outfielder and right-handed bat off the bench.
Signed: Brewers, two years, $20 million
26. Brock Holt, INF
2020 age: 32 | B/T: L/R
2019 WAR: 1.0 | Career: 7.5
Holt missed the first two months of 2019 with a scratched cornea and a shoulder impingement, but that turned out to be much ado about nothing for the superutility man, who could play second base every day for a number of teams. The versatile infielder/outfielder is coming off his two best offensive years by wRC+ (109 and 103), and if he doesn't get a starting job somewhere, he's a great four-position utility player who can serve as a strong left-handed bat off the bench.
Signed: Brewers, one year, $3.25 million (team option for 2021)
27. Shogo Akiyama, CF
2020 age: 32 | B/T: L/R
2019 WAR: N.A. | Career: N.A.
Akiyama is a very durable true center fielder, playing exactly 143 games in each of the past five years, and he has more raw strength than you might expect, getting to 20-plus homers in the NPB for three straight years. He'll turn 32 in April, however, and there's a fair question of whether his swing -- getting his front foot down so late, with late hip rotation and a long path from his loading position to the zone -- will translate to MLB. I could see teams offering him a one-year deal here if he really wants to come play in the U.S., but he might find better offers in Japan, where he has been one of the better hitters on Seibu for several seasons.
Signed: Reds, three years, $21 million
28. Homer Bailey, RHP
2020 age: 34 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 1.8 | Career: 5.9
Bailey hadn't thrown a complete season in the majors since 2013, but had his longest and most productive season since then in 2019, so with all due respect to Lucas Giolito, Bailey had a better case for AL Comeback Player of the Year. Bailey made 31 starts for two teams and was worth 1.9 bWAR/2.9 fWAR, his highest total in either metric since that 2013 season, working with a splitter that became more dominant as the season went on and using it more than ever before. Pitching for two teams in ballparks that suppress home runs didn't hurt, and I wouldn't bet on Bailey finding this success in Colorado or his old home of Cincinnati, but a one-year offer for him to make 30 starts and be around league average would make sense for most contenders.
Signed: Twins, one year, $7 million
29. Julio Teheran, RHP
2020 age: 29 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.7 | Career: 19.5
Teheran has lost the huge velocity that marked him as a top-10 prospect six years ago, but he has compensated for it by becoming one of the only true sinkerballers among MLB starters. His ground ball rate overall is well below the major league median at just 39%, but it's around 54% off his sinker, and that might be key to his ability to continue working as a starter given his velocity slide and below-average control. His four-seamer is more homer-prone now, although he actually had an eight-start stretch in May and June, covering 44 innings, when he didn't allow a single home run and posted a 0.81 ERA despite unimpressive peripherals. I think that's a harbinger of his future -- throwing more sinkers is his best shot at remaining a starter, given his high walk rates and the fringy offerings in the rest of his repertoire.
Signed: Angels, 1 year, $9 million
30. Dallas Keuchel, LHP
2020 age: 32 | B/T: L/L
2019 WAR: 2.1 | Career: 20.5
Keuchel signed at midseason and was huge for Atlanta, posting a 3.75 ERA in 112 innings, although his underlying stats were a bit less promising and his velocity was still down even after the extra two months of rest. Keuchel is a strong ground ball pitcher who lives at the knees and fares better when umps are giving him the low strike, although the bottom of the strike zone is a nebulous target subject to change at the whim of umpires and MLB. He also has had trouble on and off with keeping his mechanics consistent as he comes down the hill, which can lead to higher walk rates than he can sustain given his low velocity and high HR/fly ball rates. He'll turn 32 in January, and, after throwing only about two-thirds of a season, should be good for a full workload, just at the level of a fourth or fifth starter rather than the high-end guy he once was.
Signed: White Sox, 3 years, $55.5 million (vesting option for 2023)
31. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH
2020 age: 33 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.4 | Career: 21.2
Abreu would have been a highly coveted free agent looking at four-year deals ... if this were 1998. He had 33 homers, 123 RBIs and a .284 average, and once upon a time that was what got you paid. Today's teams will look at him as a bad first baseman who should be a DH, a hitter who seldom walks and someone who has a higher risk of declining in his mid-30s than most players because of his lack of athleticism and so-called "old man's skills." The good news is he can still catch up to velocity; the bad news is that he doesn't hit breaking stuff, and he's going to see more of that the more he shows he can't hit it. I'd be surprised if he's still a 1-WAR player by 2022, and although the market might disagree, I think he's a one-year-to-be-a-DH player.
Re-signed: White Sox, three years, $50 million
32. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
2020 age: 34 | B/T: R/L
2019 WAR: 1.9 | Career: 30.7
Gonzalez couldn't find an employer until late April, made four great starts for the Brewers, then two not-so-good ones, and hit the injured list for two months with a "dead arm," possibly the result of ramping up without a spring training because he signed so late. He came back and was about league average as a starter from late July to the end of the season. I see no reason he can't do the same for 25 starts this year, maybe more, as long as he's signed in time to get a normal spring routine in.
Signed: White Sox, one year, $5 million (team option for 2021)
33. Cameron Maybin, OF
2020 age: 33 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 1.5 | Career: 14.8
A little Yankees pixie dust and voila! -- Maybin is a valuable player again, thanks to an improved launch angle that led to career-best barrel and hard-hit rates last season. If he'd gotten this help in his prime years, he would have been a star, but now he's probably looking at one-year deals and hoping to play enough to show he can still contribute on defense despite a negative (below-average) UZR as a left fielder in 2019. I'd take a shot on him as a backup who might end up being more than that if you have the playing time or have an every-day outfielder with injury concerns.
34. Kole Calhoun, OF
2020 age: 32 | B/T: L/L
2019 WAR: 2.3 | Career: 15.9
Calhoun went from a senior signed in the eighth round of the 2010 draft to a six-year run as the Angels' every-day right fielder, averaging about 2.7 WAR per season in that span. He's coming off a career-best 33 home runs -- thank you, Happy Fun Ball -- but has never posted an OBP of .350 or higher, hasn't had a .250 batting average since 2016, and at 32, his decline might have been masked by the baseball itself. He is still an above-average defender in right and profiles as a solid every-day option as long as his power holds up.
Signed: Diamondbacks, two years, $16 million (team option for 2022)
35. Will Smith, LHP
2020 age: 30 | B/T: R/L
2019 WAR: 2.1 | Career: 4.4
Smith went to the Giants in a mid-2016 trade, threw 18⅓ innings for San Francisco, then had Tommy John surgery that kept him out until 2018. Since his return, however, he has been nails: 118⅓ innings, 167 strikeouts, just 30 unintentional walks, a 2.66 ERA, a 2.17 FIP and just over 3.0 WAR by both versions. He destroys left-handed batters, striking out exactly half of the 144 lefties he has faced in the past two seasons while walking just two, and has held right-handers to an OBP below .300 in the same span. He's the best left-hander on the market and the reliever I'd be most comfortable giving a three-year deal this winter.
Signed: Braves, three years, $39 million (team option for 2023)
36. Will Harris, RHP
2020 age: 35 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 2.1 | Career: 7.8
Discarded by the Dave Stewart-led Diamondbacks, Harris has been a consistent above-average reliever for Houston for the past four seasons, averaging 56 innings and more than 1 WAR per year. He works with a plus curveball and a cutter that took a big leap last season in effectiveness without any real change in its physical characteristics (velocity, spin rate, movement). He is quite useful for any bullpen because he gets left-handed hitters out, with a reverse platoon split for his career, and because he has been durable and used intelligently by Astros manager AJ Hinch. He's the rare reliever in this market I'd give two guaranteed years.
Signed: Nationals, three years, $24 million
37. Adam Wainwright, RHP
2020 age: 38 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 1.9 | Career: 36.0
Wainwright turned 38 in August but had his best season since 2014, making 30 starts for only the second time in that span. He maxed out all of the incentives on the contract the Cardinals gave him for 2019, turning a $2 million base salary into $10 million in total compensation. Since the start of 2018, he has been throwing his four-seam fastball less than ever before, and he uses his famed -- and still very effective -- curveball just as often as he uses the four-seamer, an approach that should work until either his fastball slips to the mid-80s or he can't spin the curveball anymore. I assume he'll go back to St. Louis, the only major league team for which he has pitched, but if he goes out on the market, there should be one-year offers in the $7-10 million range. As long as those wheels stay on the wagon, he'll be able to help someone.
Re-signed: Cardinals, one year, $5 million (plus $5 million in performance bonuses)
38. Jonathan Schoop, 2B
2020 age: 28 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 1.6 | Career: 13.2
Schoop's breakout 2017 season looks like an outlier now, even after he bounced back with the Twins after a disastrous 2018 season that saw him post a .266 OBP with two clubs. Schoop has plus power and generally posted good contact rates for someone whose only real attribute at the plate is his ability to hit home runs, but he swings far too often, chasing pitches out of the zone more than he should. He swung at 43.5% of pitches he saw outside of the strike zone last year, which would have ranked him in the top (or bottom) 10 in the majors had he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Hitters can have success at that level -- Javier Baez does -- but you have to either make more contact when chasing pitches out of zone or do a lot more damage when you connect.
Schoop is 28, young enough that you could still hope to make some adjustments to his approach but also old and experienced enough that a significant change seems unlikely. I'd still take a shot at a one-year deal for him to see what my hitting coaches could do, maybe a base salary in the $6-8 million range with incentives if he plays full time.
Signed: Tigers, one year, $6.1 million
39. Asdrubal Cabrera, INF
2020 age: 34 | B/T: B/R
2019 WAR: 1.7 | Career: 28.1
Cabrera is a useful backup infielder who can handle regular playing time at second or third, is overtaxed defensively at short and has good pop for his position. His walk rate spiked to a career-high 11.1% last year, a level he hadn't approached since 2008. Given his age and the previous 10 years, I'm inclined to think that's a fluke.
Signed: Nationals, one year, $2.5 million
40. Eric Sogard, INF
2020 age: 34 | B/T: L/R
2019 WAR: 2.6 | Career: 7.4
It looked like Sogard's career might be over after an atrocious 2018 season, when he had 113 plate appearances for the Brewers and hit .134/.241/.165, "good" for a 14 wRC+ (100 is average, and no, that 14 is not a typo). He signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays, quickly earned a promotion back to the majors, and had the best year of his career, more than doubling his career totals in home runs (going from 11 to 24) and WAR (from 1.9 to 4.7, per FanGraphs).
Is it sustainable? His launch angle has increased substantially over the past two years, going from an average of 12.8 degrees to 18.3 degrees, and that's probably sustainable. He played at 33 years old in 2019 and saw his exit velocity and hard-hit rates bump up, which seems really unlikely at his age and is far less likely to hold up into his mid-30s. He does offer some positional versatility, able to handle second base and the corner outfield spots. Even factoring in some regression, a one-year deal at $6-8 million would have some value for the club.
Signed: Brewers, 1 year, $4.5 million (team option for 2021)
41. Rick Porcello, RHP
2020 age: 31 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 1.2 | Career: 19.9
Porcello has been quite durable, making 32 or 33 starts in each of the past four seasons, but picked the wrong year to stop missing bats. His fastball velocity held, but his slider velocity dropped by 1.7 mph from 2018; even with greater break in both dimensions and an identical spin rate, the loss in velocity seems to have made the pitch far less effective. But there was also some real flukiness to his season: Porcello was brutal with runners in scoring position, giving up a .314/.407/.571 line, and that's completely out of character for him. I doubt his Cy Young 2016 is recurring anytime soon, but there's some natural regression (upward) coming here and he's a solid innings guy in the fourth spot of a rotation.
Signed: Mets, one year, $10 million
42. Hunter Pence, OF
2020 age: 37 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 1.7 | Career: 31.3
Pence certainly looked finished after a minus-0.8 fWAR performance in 2018, thanks to a .258 OBP and injuries that limited him to 97 games. He got healthy this past season, narrowed his stance, got more upright at the plate and hit .297/.358/.442 for a 128 wRC+, his highest mark since 2013. He played only 83 games around groin and back injuries, and he's entering his age-37 season, so banking on him for a full year would be rather optimistic. But he showed there's still some life in his bat, especially against lefties, and should be a target for teams that could use a right-handed DH/occasional corner-outfield option.
Signed: Giants, one year, $3 million
43. Yasiel Puig, OF
2020 age: 29 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 1.4 | Career: 20.0
Puig set the world on fire when he debuted for the Dodgers in 2013, but he appears to have peaked at age 22 and has slid gradually downhill ever since. His bat has been at or just below league average for a corner outfielder over the past five years, with 2019 falling right in the middle of that range, while on defense he's capable of making highlight plays (and throws) but grades out no better than average. He's a passable regular for now, but given the arc of his career, it looks as if he's well into the decline phase most hitters hit in their early 30s, and I think the risk of him hitting the cliff in the next few years is quite high.
44. Robinson Chirinos, C
2020 age: 36 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 3.8 | Career: 13.0
Chirinos didn't get his 100th major league at-bat until his age-30 season, and through 2019 he has played only about four full-ish seasons as a catcher, even though he's a pretty good hitter for a catcher, always drawing walks and hitting for some power. This is who he has always been -- he had huge walk rates in the minors too, although he hasn't made as much contact in the majors. He's a mediocre defender, below average in framing and throwing runners out, but his bat has made up for it when he's been given playing time. He'll turn 36 in May, so I doubt he's going to get long-term offers; if you're a GM who has a good backup catcher or a catching prospect you want to ease into the role, Chirinos would be great on a one-year deal.
Signed: Rangers, one year, $5.5 million (team option for 2021)
45. Brett Anderson, LHP
2020 age: 32 | B/T: L/L
2019 WAR: 2.5 | Career: 10.0
Anderson had the lowest strikeout rate of any qualifying starter in 2019, just 12.1% of opposing batters, yet was still worth 2.7 bWAR/2.0 fWAR thanks to a low walk rate and the third-best ground ball rate among starters. It's not a formula that would work in every ballpark, but Oakland definitely favors a pitch-to-contact guy who gets ground balls. Anderson has spent parts of 11 seasons in the majors, and 2019 was just the third time he has pitched enough to even be a qualifying starter ... but every time he has done so, he has been good. He's worth another one-year deal for a team in a big home ballpark.
Signed: Brewers, one year, $5 million (plus $2 million in performance bonuses)
46. Tyler Flowers, C
2020 age: 34 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: -0.1 | Career: 7.7
Flowers is a great pitch framer with power. I suppose that's enough to make him a fringe regular, even though he's not a good receiver, posted a .319 OBP last year and struck out in a third of his plate appearances. That's an indictment of umpiring to me, but FanGraphs' WAR, which incorporates pitch-framing runs for modern catchers, had him at 2.1 fWAR last year. If you buy those framing figures, he should be a starter for a bad team or a part-time catcher for a good team in 2020.
Signed: Braves, one year, $4 million
47. Ben Zobrist, INF
2020 age: 39 | B/T: B/R
2019 WAR: -0.1 | Career: 45.2
Zobrist might choose to retire, but if he wants to play again, there should be plenty of interest in him as a multipositional reserve who still showed last year, even with a difficult off-field situation, that he can help a team with his on-base skills. September stats can be very misleading because of the uneven nature of competition that month, but it's all we have from Zobrist after his return from personal leave, and he hit .284/.377/.388 in 77 PA with just 12 strikeouts, well in line with his 2018 OBP/walk rates.
48. Martin Perez, LHP
2020 age: 29 | B/T: L/L
2019 WAR: 0.2 | Career WAR: 5.7
Perez had a six-start stretch from mid-April to mid-May during which he gave up 10 runs over 44⅔ innings with 41 strikeouts and 13 walks, and it really looked as if the Twins had found gold with this signing ... but it didn't last, and he posted a 6.17 ERA over 112⅓ innings the rest of the year. He's pretty durable, and he's left-handed, and the cutter the Twins gave him is an effective pitch. I don't know where the plus changeup he once had has gone, and he doesn't throw enough strikes. I just see a guy who can throw a lot of innings and whom every tinkering team will want to try to fix.
Signed: Red Sox, one year, $6 million (team option for 2021)
49. Brian Dozier, 2B
2020 age: 33 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 0.7 | Career WAR: 24.5
Dozier is probably never going to be a 4-plus win player again, but his 2019 showed he can still help a team in a part-time role or even as a soft regular. His 2018 line was suppressed by a flukishly low BABIP, but his BABIP came up in 2019 as he made harder contact with the largest launch angle he's had in the Statcast era. A second-division team could give him a year to be its second baseman.
Signed: Padres, minor league contract
50. Travis d'Arnaud, C
2020 age: 31 | B/T: R/R
2019 WAR: 1.0 | Career WAR: 3.3
I had d'Arnaud as a top-10 prospect in the game at one point, but his major league career has been wrecked by injuries: He has had 400 PA in only one season, 2014, and has appeared in 100 games only three times. If he's healthy enough to catch, his bat is above-average for the position, so he's a decent fit for a team with another catching option in need of a backup who's more than just a 25-game-a-year guy.
Signed: Braves, two years, $16 million