CHICAGO -- Unless some inventive front-office type finds some loophole in the new rules, the trade deadline is cemented this year on July 31 as the last and best opportunity for teams to add talent from outside their organizations.
This is why evaluators across baseball believe there will be a flurry of deals in the last hours and days leading up to the deadline as contenders look to augment their rosters for August, September and perhaps October, and as some teams surrender and look to save add a prospect or two for their farm system and perhaps save a little money from their 2019 balance sheet.
And just about every contending team could be looking to draw from the same pool of players -- the bullpen pieces. "I think there is going to be a big fight among the contending teams to land high-impact relievers," a longtime evaluator said the other day.
Even the New York Yankees, who might have the deepest bullpen in baseball, could use another reliever, in light of the persistent shoulder trouble of Dellin Betances. Part of the reason the Cubs spent big dollars to sign Craig Kimbrel is their anticipation that the prospect cost of trades for the best relievers this summer will be high, at a time when the Chicago farm system is not as robust as that of other contending teams.
The Philadelphia Phillies lead the NL East, but they have suffered a devastating series of bullpen injuries. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the best team in the National League so far, but they will focus on bullpen help, bolstering the group of relievers who work before Kenley Jansen. The Milwaukee Brewers again bypassed opportunities to pay for starting pitching, and will instead need a deep relief corps again. Now that the Atlanta Braves landed Dallas Keuchel for their rotation, the front office will look to stabilize their bullpen -- and they have a great group of young starting pitchers to utilize, either by shifting some into relief roles or through trades.
Some of the different-makers who evaluators believe will be discussed this summer:
• Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians. The two-time All-Star is having a spectacular season, with a 1.01 ERA, and seven walks and 39 strikeouts in 26⅔ innings. The 29-year-old is making $7.1 million this year, $7.6 million next year, and his contract, signed when he was in the Padres' organization, holds a $10 million team option for 2021, with a $1 million buyout.
So any team interested in making a deal with the Indians would not only have to properly compensate Cleveland for one of the best relievers in baseball, but also for the value of a deal that is relatively modest. Hand makes less than the Dodgers' Joe Kelly, who got $25 million over three years with the Dodgers last winter.
Given the challenges of their market and resulting payroll, the Indians will always objectively evaluate offers for players who have outsized value -- and Hand fits that description right now. And the Indians are in the same position of leverage that the Yankees were when they dangled Andrew Miller in the market in the summer of 2016. Cleveland could insist on strong return, or they can simply keep Hand to be their closer in 2020.
Evaluators with other teams believe the Indians will move Hand, because of the volatility of reliever performance, and because Hand's value will never be higher than it is right now.
• Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals. Washington has played better of late, winning 10 of 14, and Doolittle continues to pitch fine, with a 2.89 FIP. He's making $6 million this year, and the Nationals hold a $6.5 option on Doolittle for 2020. Nobody has seized control of the NL East yet, and it's possible that the Nationals will continue to climb back into the race.
But if Washington fades, then it would make sense for the Nationals to at least listen to offers for Doolittle, who turns 33 in September.
• Felipe Vazquez, Pittsburgh Pirates. One of the best trades made by Pittsburgh GM Neal Huntington was the swap of closer Mark Melancon to the Nationals, in Melancon's last months before he reached free agency. In return, Huntington got Felipe Rivero, a left-hander coveted by many teams. Rivero has since changed his name to Vazquez, but he remains dominant -- the left-hander has struck out 43 of the 118 batters he's faced this year. His rate of fly balls has climbed this year, but undoubtedly, other teams would be interested in making a move for Vazquez, who turns 28 next month and will be under team control for years to come.
Vazquez is making $4.5 million this year, and will earn $5.75 million in 2020 and $7.75 million in 2021 -- and then his deal contains back-to-back club options for 2022 and 2023.
The Pirates are known to be very careful and deliberate in their deal-making, and there is industry skepticism that Pittsburgh would trade Vazquez now, years before they really need to consider that possibility. "The ask will be big," said one evaluator, "and they won't move from it."
• Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays. He won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season, and with the Blue Jays in full rebuild mode, it would make sense for them to capitalize on his current value, as if to sell a hot stock. Giles lost the closer's job in Houston and was moved to the Blue Jays in the Roberto Osuna trade last summer, but since joining Toronto, he has rebounded -- he's posting a 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio this season, with one homer allowed in his first 25 innings.
• Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres. One executive noted that his own team would have to make an "objective" assessment would have to be made about whether it was a serious contender or not, and the same could be true for San Diego. The Padres have taken a big step forward this year after years of struggling, playing around .500 following the signing of Manny Machado and the promotion of Fernando Tatis, Jr. -- but San Diego's deficit in the NL West as of this morning is 11 games, and they are one of 10 teams within 6.5 games of each other in the wild-card race. Their chances for making the playoffs remain slight.
In light of those numbers, it's probably worthwhile for the Padres to talk to other teams about Yates, a 32-year reliever having a career year -- he's got 48 strikeouts in 28 innings, with an MLB-best 23 saves. Yates will be eligible for free agency after 2020. The Padres could see what's available in trade, and if nobody meets their demands, they could just keep him for next year for themselves.
• Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks. He's had trouble with his command so far this season, but this is the one time in the baseball calendar when small sample size helps a player -- especially someone like Bradley, who is 26 years old and pitched well each of the last two seasons. With a handful of strong outings, he could allay some of the concerns about his command and restore trade interest -- and any team that acquired Bradley would have him under contractual control through the 2021 season. He's had problems falling behind in the count this year, with a 50 percent first-pitch strike percentage, and has been hurt on his fastball as a result, but he continues to throw hard, with an average fastball velocity of 95.7 mph.
• Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers. He's 30 years old and eligible for free agency after next season, and with Detroit out of contention, this would be the best time for the Tigers to take advantage of his market value. He has allowed just 14 hits in 25 innings.
• Greg Holland, Arizona Diamondbacks. After a mess of a 2018 season, he has pitched much better for Arizona this year after signing a one-year, $3.25 million deal. Holland has allowed just 10 hits in 20⅔ innings -- albeit with 10 walks -- but his experience as a closer will be valued. Holland has 198 career saves, among 308 games finished.
News from around the majors
The Chicago Cubs loved what they saw in Kimbrel's first bullpen session for them here Saturday, throwing his fastball up to 94 mph with explosive late movement, and he had a sharp curveball -- and the spin data he generated was excellent, in the eyes of the Chicago staff. Kimbrel will continue his work at the team's spring training facility in the days ahead.
• Keuchel was supposed to pitch for the Braves' Triple-A team Saturday, but because Gwinnett was rained out, he threw in the bullpen to prepare for a start for Class A Rome on Monday, when he's expected to throw something in the range of 80-85 pitches.
For the Braves, the signing of Keuchel is just about risk-free. For cash only -- no prospects needed for a trade -- they bring in an experienced, accomplished left-hander who could help to stabilize a rotation. The young starters who have auditioned for the spots at the back end of the rotation, like Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, apparently still need some more development time, and if Keuchel is effective, he joins Mike Soroka, Julio Teheran and Max Fried in forming a pretty good rotation. If Keuchel struggles, then the Braves will quickly move on from the four-month financial commitment as they prepare for the 2020 season, with their future payroll flexibility intact.
For Keuchel, there is the possibility of a big reward if he pitches well and heads into free agency off a strong second half; with an excellent showing for the Braves, he could be in line for a three- or four-year deal. But there is also big risk if he doesn't. He turns 32 in January, and any serious struggles this summer will reinforce concerns among teams about the condition of his shoulder.
• Kyle Hendricks starts on Sunday Night Baseball, against Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals, at a time when Hendricks's velocity has spiked by a couple of miles per hour. He still has the lowest average fastball velo in the majors, at 87, but in his most recent start he averaged almost two miles per hour higher than he did in his first start of the season. In conversation Saturday, he acknowledged that he'll sometimes use the extra bit of fastball to close out hitters on two strikes -- pumping up to 90 mph high in the strike zone, perhaps, to surprise opponents who might be looking for his changeup.
• In every draft, there are always questions about which high school prospects might bypass their college commitment, and which will instead sign to play professionally. Kumar Rocker never left any doubt about his intention to enroll at Vanderbilt in the week leading up to the 2018 draft, and on Saturday, he threw a no-hitter against Duke, striking out 19.
"Kumar's commitment was always firm," Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin wrote in an email Sunday morning, "but in the week before the draft, he communicated to the industry that he was going to college. The difference was his mom. She was dead set on school first, and she declared that on day one and never backed off. Never. She never got caught up in anyone else's noise."
The Rockies took a flier on Rocker, drafting him in the 38th round, but he followed through and went to Vanderbilt, as Duke learned firsthand.
Baseball Tonight podcast
Friday: Tony Gwynn Jr. talks about the Padres, about the big hit he got off Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman, and about his dad's effort to hit .400 in 1994; Karl Ravech on the Braves' signing of Keuchel.
Thursday: USA Today's Bob Nightengale on the Cubs' signing of Kimbrel; Keith Law with draft superlatives; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Wednesday: Matt Vasgersian discusses Bruce Bochy's milestone, and how the Phillies respond to the loss of Andrew McCutchen; Boog Sciambi on Clint Frazier's handling of the media, and what players' responsibilities are in dealing with reporters; Paul Hembekides on the Mets' historically bad infield; this week's Power 10.
Tuesday: Tim Kurkjian on the Andrew McCutchen injury, and the Yankees' chemistry; Keith Law with a review of the first round of the draft; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Monday: Conversations with Aaron Boone and Xander Bogaerts; Dave Schoenfield with a review of the weekend; cap talk with Todd Radom.