Edwin Diaz turned away from home plate as Cody Bellinger completed the Dodgers' stunning comeback victory with a game-winning slide Wednesday night, and the Mets' closer lowered his chin, tugged his cap down on his forehead and began the lonely walk to the visitors' clubhouse. The Mets have had a lot of disappointment in the first two months of this season, some terrible losses, but this was a low point.
They are 27-28, six games behind the Phillies and 2½ behind the Braves in the National League East; there are more than 100 games to play, still plenty of time for a turnaround. The Mets could win tonight and split the series with the Dodgers, and the rotation of great promise could get hot and overtake Philadelphia. Robinson Cano could come back from his hamstring injury and play better, and perhaps there will be a time when Jed Lowrie, the team's big free-agent signing of the winter, will be healthy and contribute. If that happens, the Mets could be measured buyers before the July 31 trade deadline.
But as soon as next week's amateur draft is completed, the Mets should prepare for two possible postures -- that of buyer, and that of seller. A big seller.
If there is no turnaround, the Mets should execute what one executive referred to as "a Preller" -- a significant teardown of an expected contender. In the winter of 2014-15, A.J. Preller became Padres general manager and went all-in, in an effort to win immediately, with disastrous results: Despite the additions of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, James Shields and others, at great cost to the team's farm system, San Diego actually won fewer games. Preller then did a complete reversal, unloading veterans and adding prospects such as Fernando Tatis Jr. (in a Shields trade), Manuel Margot (for Kimbrel), Anderson Espinoza (for Drew Pomeranz) and Chris Paddack (for reliever Fernando Rodney, in the summer of 2016).
The Mets should never cut their payroll to the bone and tank in the way the Padres did, but if there's no turnaround, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen should adopt the same strategy and flip some of his most valuable veterans for major-league-ready or high-end prospects. In the push to win this year, Van Wagenen traded some of the best assets in the Mets organization, most notably outfielder and former first-round pick Jarred Kelenic, who is having a monster season in the Mariners' organization and was just promoted, and pitcher Justin Dunn, who, similarly, is progressing in 2019.
Diaz blew the Mets' lead Wednesday, but he is still widely regarded as an elite closer. At age 25, he's got 35 strikeouts in 22⅓ innings, and if the Mets were to dangle him in the market, he would immediately become the most coveted reliever available, amid the likes of Shane Greene, Ken Giles and Francisco Liriano. This might be a good time for the cost-conscious Mets to move Diaz, because he's about to get very expensive -- through arbitration, he'll probably see his salary jump from $607,245 to something north of $7 million, the benchmark established by Kimbrel when he was eligible for arbitration for the first time in 2014.
The Mets would likely extract big offers for Diaz, and similarly, they would get good return for Noah Syndergaard, who will be eligible for free agency after the 2021 season, and Zack Wheeler, who hits the open market in the fall. Neither has pitched well, but each bears the promise of an in-season turnaround -- and you'd figure any acquiring team would have ideas about how to make that happen. At the very least, each is capable of protecting a bullpen by pitching deep into games.
The Mets could listen to offers for Jacob deGrom as well, but presumably the team's ownership would not consider a trade of the face of the franchise.
Underneath the struggles of Cano and catcher Wilson Ramos, the strange-but-true injuries of Yoenis Cespedes and the scapegoating of manager Mickey Callaway, there are reasons for hope for the Mets moving forward. Michael Conforto has blossomed, Pete Alonso is a Rookie of the Year candidate, Amed Rosario is getting better and Jeff McNeil has demonstrated he is a more-than-capable major leaguer.
If the big rebound never comes for the Mets -- and even if it does -- the great lesson from this year is a win-now plan is destined to fail unless there is ownership willingness to spend significantly, in cash and prospects. The Mets traded prospects for Cano and Diaz, but they needed other pieces and a big bump in the payroll; their all-in plan was something of a half-measure. The Red Sox won the 2018 World Series by strip-mining the farm system for Kimbrel and Chris Sale, but also by signing J.D. Martinez and building the highest payroll in baseball.
If that kind of spending is not possible for Van Wagenen -- and there is absolutely no indication that the Wilpons, big-market owners who have typically carried midmarket payrolls, will unlock their wallets -- then he needs to replenish the farm system ASAP. He has the means to do it, by making the right choices and picking the right prospects.