The other day, a high-ranking baseball executive referred to a time when most teams operated very, very differently than they do now, and remembered how aggressively clubs used to pursue a wild-card entry into the playoffs, how they would be willing to overpay in a midseason trade to merely reach the postseason.
Really, it was just a decade ago. But given the explosion in baseball analytics and the change in the rules for postseason berths, with wild-card entrants guaranteed only one game, the executive said, teams have a different perspective. "Nobody's going to be hyperaggressive if they think their only shot [for the playoffs] is a possible wild card," he said. "Nobody thinks that way anymore."
This is important to remember in framing the upcoming trade market, because it appears that half of the division races will be regarded by front offices as locked down.
The Dodgers, Astros and Twins already have leads over their divisional brethren of 10 or more games, and while the 1978 and 2011 Red Sox and the 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers are infamous examples of how big leads can be blown, the numbers strongly suggest that the best and perhaps only chance for the Indians, Angels, Rangers, A's, White Sox, Rockies, Padres and Diamondbacks is via the wild card. And other teams in those divisions, such as the Mariners, Giants and Royals, can sell early, conscience-free.
Because of the polarized nature of those three division races, evaluators acknowledge that this summer's trade market could greatly favor the buyers -- because fewer teams might be in the market for roster additions, because half the divisions will be regarded as settled business, and there may be more sellers right away.
More sellers, fewer buyers; more supply, less demand. A buyer's market.
The three division runaways might already be impacting possible deals. The Twins have a 10½ game lead over the Indians, 11½ over the White Sox, and according to FanGraphs, Minnesota's chances for reaching the postseason stand at an overwhelming 97.9 percent. On paper, Dallas Keuchel could be a fit. Keuchel would upgrade the Twins' rotation depth, unquestionably.
But if the Twins were to sign Keuchel to a one-year deal, his only significant impact would be in the postseason -- and teams are rarely inclined in this big-data era to pay heavily in that way. The Cubs did it in 2016 when they traded Gleyber Torres and others for Aroldis Chapman, at a time when Chicago had an overwhelming lead in the NL Central; Theo Epstein said then that the move was made to win the World Series. But the Cubs were in a unique place in their history, pursuing their first title in 108 years.
The Twins, Dodgers and Astros probably won't overpay for anything these days, given their current context.
If there are fewer buyers, as it appears, then teams such as the Phillies, Braves, Yankees and Rays could benefit. The Yankees need a starting pitcher, and as they talk with Keuchel about a possible deal, they have the leverage of understanding that there are plenty of other market options to consider -- Madison Bumgarner, the Jays' Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, the Mariners' Marco Gonzales, perhaps Mike Minor of the Rangers and Matthew Boyd of the Tigers. Even if the Yankees, Braves and Phillies wait out the high prices, they're probably bound to get somebody decent.
A common practice of sellers is to try to dump salary close to the trade deadline, leaving big-market teams in a commanding position to grab more expensive veterans -- an advantage the Phillies might have over the Braves, because the Phillies are flush in available dollars and Atlanta has very little flexibility.
All of these developing conditions, some club evaluators say, could impact Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel as long as they remain unsigned.
"Those guys better get off the board sooner rather than later," said one evaluator, "because they're going to find interest in them bogged down by the trade market, soon."