Welcome to June! It is a time of assessments in the baseball world. Assessments by us, fans and pundits. Assessments by teams, about themselves and about individual players. Enough real numbers are in the books where it's time for teams to declare their intentions for the 2019 season and in doing so, they have to make crucial judgments about their players and players they might like to acquire.
That's the theme of this month's Stock Watch. We are selecting the biggest surprise and disappointment for each team to date. By and large, this is a glimpse of those who have most overachieved and underachieved their preseason forecasts; however, additional context was given sway when making the selections. You can also read this as a laundry list of those most likely to regress to expected patterns: Many of the surprises here won't fare as well the rest of the way, while many of the disappointments will begin to perform more according to established patterns.
As for the team ratings and probabilities that are always a part of Stock Watch, for the first time this season we have grouped the teams according to buy, hold and sell status according to their current probability of earning a postseason spot. That number was determined by running 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. The basis of the simulation model is the author's power rating formula, which is expressed below as "win forecast." These revised forecasts determine the order in which teams are listed.
BUYERS
1. Houston Astros
WIN FORECAST: 106.4 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +4.1
DIVISION%: 99.6 | PLAYOFF%: 99.9
PENNANT%: 38.6 | TITLE%: 23.8
Surprise: Michael Brantley. Brantley's numbers are a dead ringer for those from his career season in 2014. The only thing is he was 27 then and he is 32 now. Turning back clocks is only part of what makes the Astros' operation so dynamic.
Disappointment: Jose Altuve. Altuve is on pace to finish more than 3 wins shy of his fWAR projection. His leg issues are the explainer for this trend. No one doubts that Altuve will produce if he gets a healthy stretch. However, at 29, the duration of his lower-body maladies is concerning. He is, after all, a second baseman.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
WIN FORECAST: 105.6 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +4.9
DIVISION%: 99.5 | PLAYOFF%: 100.0
PENNANT%: 45.5 | TITLE%: 25.5
Surprise: Cody Bellinger. Bellinger entered the season forecast to put up around 4.1 fWAR. Pretty good. He's on pace to have 12.3. In other words, he has taken a first-division level of play and added a Mike Trout-like heap of production onto it. It's just not supposed to happen.
Disappointment: Chris Taylor. You could go with A.J. Pollock here since he wasn't producing even before going on the injured list. We'll give him a pass because of the malady. Instead, we will pick on Taylor because his season numbers leave him well off his projected pace. However, it has been good the past three weeks or so, justifying the fact that the deep Dodgers keep playing him on a regular basis. Taylor's shortfall is far from tragic, but L.A. has been so good, it's hard to see anyone as a major disappointment.
3. Minnesota Twins
WIN FORECAST: 102.1 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +3.8
DIVISION%: 98.4 | PLAYOFF%: 99.4
PENNANT%: 21.8 | TITLE%: 11.0
Surprise: Jorge Polanco. Minnesota has nine regulars currently on pace to exceed their preseason forecast by at least 2 wins. They have just one player on pace to fall 2 wins short -- Nelson Cruz, who has been really good but missed a chunk of time with injury. As for picking one player here, Polanco's unlikely charge into the American League MVP race gets the narrow nod over reconstituted starter Jake Odorizzi.
Disappointment: Willians Astudillo. No one on Minnesota is disappointing. Astudillo isn't an every-day player and really doesn't belong in this spot either. However, he is below replacement, meaning he's not forcing his way into more playing time. Because we love him so much and he's so fun to watch, that is the closest thing to a disappointment in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Of course, all this means is that there is a heck of a lot of bad regression to watch for on the Minnesota roster, which would be a concern if the Twins played in another division.
4. New York Yankees
WIN FORECAST: 98.1 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +2.8
DIVISION%: 60.2 | PLAYOFF%: 96.6
PENNANT%: 19.7 | TITLE%: 10.4
Surprise: Domingo German. Tough call here between German and Gio Urshela. We'll go with German's development into an early-season ace, a much-needed wrinkle in the Yankees' semi-miraculous first half. Yes, he's showing signs of slowing down. That doesn't diminish what German helped to do in keeping New York afloat.
Disappointment: J.A. Happ. This is picking on Happ a bit. He really hasn't been that bad save for an unnatural spike in his HR/FB rate. The Yankees are another team for which it's hard to pin the disappointment tag. Almost all of their projection shortfalls are related to injuries rather than performance.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
WIN FORECAST: 95.2 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +0.0
DIVISION%: 32.1 | PLAYOFF%: 91.2
PENNANT%: 11.8 | TITLE%: 5.7
Surprise: Austin Meadows. Take your pick with these guys. Could have gone with Meadows, Avisail Garcia, Brandon Lowe, Tyler Glasnow or Tommy Pham. Really, though, how could you not pick Meadows? He's on pace for 6.7 fWAR, and please don't claim to have seen that coming. Meadows spent parts of three seasons accumulating 742 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, at which he hit .264. So far this season, he's leading the AL at .356.
Disappointment: Daniel Robertson. There haven't been many Rays off their projection schedule based strictly on performance. Robertson is the exception. After seemingly establishing himself as a top-notch super-utility player in 2018, he has hit .204/.309/.287 thus far. That looks a lot like his 2017 line, and if Robertson doesn't get it going soon, the Rays will have plenty of contenders to soak up his playing time.
6. Chicago Cubs
WIN FORECAST: 92.8 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -2.0
DIVISION%: 65.0 | PLAYOFF%: 88.2
PENNANT%: 21.3 | TITLE%: 9.3
Surprise: Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has turned around a slow start and become one of baseball's must-see pitchers with a run of Maddux-like mastery that recalls his 2016 success. Hendricks' ability to pitch in the zone has allowed him to work deep into games, a trait that is increasingly rare among big league starters. Big arms? Great. Huge strikeout rates? Lovely. But every organization should be trying to turn out a Kyle Hendricks or two as well.
Disappointment: Kyle Schwarber. Yu Darvish would be an easy choice here, and Daniel Descalso has been dreadful. We'll give Schwarber the nod for career-to-date reasons. Rather than becoming the third wheel of a Bryzzo-led big three in Chicago (which is what Javier Baez has become), Schwarber is hitting .221. He's hitting .227 for his career. Yeah, he walks and hits the occasional long ball. However, batting average with Schwarber does tell a story: He has yet to become a consistent producer in Chicago.
7. Boston Red Sox
WIN FORECAST: 89.4 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +0.0
DIVISION%: 7.7 | PLAYOFF%: 64.9
PENNANT%: 6.5 | TITLE%: 2.9
Surprise: Rafael Devers. Sometimes a surprise is that a good young player develops more rapidly than expected, or to a surprising degree. That has been the case for Devers, whose attempt to make more contact has of late been accompanied by in-game examples of the raw power he exhibits during batting practice. Devers has hit all nine of his homers since May 3.
Disappointment: Jackie Bradley Jr. Bradley is showing signs over the past week or so, as Marv Albert might say, but his season line (.190/.290/.316) remains anemic. Bradley's defensive metrics to date are way down as well.
8. Milwaukee Brewers
WIN FORECAST: 87.9 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +1.5
DIVISION%: 21.5 | PLAYOFF%: 61.1
PENNANT%: 7.3 | TITLE%: 2.4
Surprise: Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff has turned into the bulwark of a Milwaukee rotation that has seen a good bit of flux. He's on pace to give Milwaukee 180 innings this season, which is by itself a huge number. The Brewers don't have as much of a margin for error with their relief staff as they did a season ago.
Disappointment: Jesus Aguilar. Given the dual putrid starts of Aguilar and Travis Shaw, it's fairly miraculous that Milwaukee remains in prime contending status in the National League Central. Shaw at least has a wrist injury as an explanation. Aguilar simply has not hit. The lack of batting average is one thing, but Aguilar has an isolated power figure of just .115. He doesn't bring enough other stuff to the table to carry that number.
9. Philadelphia Phillies
WIN FORECAST: 87.8 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +1.3
DIVISION%: 43.3 | PLAYOFF%: 61.4
PENNANT%: 8.2 | TITLE%: 2.7
Surprise: J.T. Realmuto. Already widely viewed at the game's best catcher, Realmuto has continued his all-around ascension during his first year with the Phillies. His hitting remains elite for a backstop, but this season he has added gaudy framing numbers to the mix.
Disappointment: Odubel Herrera. Disappointing in so many ways.
10. Atlanta Braves
WIN FORECAST: 87.8 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +1.3
DIVISION%: 47.2 | PLAYOFF%: 63.2
PENNANT%: 8.2 | TITLE%: 2.6
Surprise: Mike Soroka. There could have been a number of young Braves starters who might have ended up in this slot. Soroka is the one to emerge first, for now, anyway. He might not qualify for the ERA title -- it would be close at his current pace -- but consider that the lowest qualifying ERA ever for a pitcher 21 or younger is 1.39 by Harry Krause of Connie Mack's 1909 Athletics. Soroka is currently sitting at 1.41.
Disappointment: Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz has taken a couple steps back from his breakout 2018 season. His ERA sits on the wrong side of 6.00, but he did have some elbow soreness earlier in the season. His strikeout rate seems to be on the upswing in his past couple of outings, so perhaps Folty is on the upswing.
HOLDERS
11. St. Louis Cardinals
WIN FORECAST: 84.1 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -3.3
DIVISION%: 8.9 | PLAYOFF%: 35.9
PENNANT%: 3.4 | TITLE%: 1.2
Surprise: Paul DeJong. DeJong has typically hit in the spot behind Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt, and ahead of Marcell Ozuna. It feels like the Cardinals' lineup should be making scoreboards spin, but while DeJong and Ozuna have produced, Carpenter and Goldschmidt have limped through more than a quarter of the season now. DeJong has taken off even with the name-brand stars ahead of him slumping, adding a cool 100 points to his OPS of last season.
Disappointment: Matt Carpenter. Carpenter is hitting .225/.337/.402. At this time last season, he was at .225/.333/.414. Two months later, Carpenter was in the MVP conversation. The Cardinals would like to see a repeat of that pattern.
12. Cleveland Indians
WIN FORECAST: 83.1 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -3.0
DIVISION%: 1.5 | PLAYOFF%: 17.7
PENNANT%: 0.7 | TITLE%: 0.3
Surprise: Carlos Santana. Maybe it isn't a surprise. Santana has a .907 OPS, up from his .766 mark last season with the Phillies. If you remove that 2018 stain, Santana is at .851 for the Indians going back to 2016. Maybe it was just Philadelphia.
Disappointment: Jose Ramirez. Ramirez has been the most disappointing player in the big leagues so far in 2019. He has gone from a bona fide MVP candidate to a player who right now is below replacement level. Every bit of his offensive game has gone missing. At the end of last August, Ramirez's OPS was .996, and he had been over 1.000 for most of the 2018 campaign. Since then, he's at .625, and you can't help but wonder if the extreme fly ball tendencies that drove Ramirez's power breakout last year are now cracking him in the kneecaps.
13. Colorado Rockies
WIN FORECAST: 82.8 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +1.9
DIVISION%: 0.3 | PLAYOFF%: 24.2
PENNANT%: 1.4 | TITLE%: 0.3
Surprise: German Marquez. Marquez has become the ace of a struggling Rockies rotation, on target to lead the NL in innings pitched with an ERA+ 47% better than league average.
Disappointment: Kyle Freeland. Life as a Rockies pitcher is to perpetually exist on the edge, as hometown hero Freeland knows better than anybody. After finishing a deserved fourth in last season's NL Cy Young balloting, Freeland's ERA and home run rates spiked, leaving him with a minor league demotion to find himself. A finesse pitcher, Freeland lost his feel for his changeup, among other problems, and he was getting hammered as a result. There's plenty of time to turn this frown upside down.
14. Oakland Athletics
WIN FORECAST: 82.0 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +2.6
DIVISION%: 0.1 | PLAYOFF%: 13.9
PENNANT%: 0.6 | TITLE%: 0.3
Surprise: Frankie Montas. Montas was on the right track last season, but the addition of a splitter and improved command has made him one of this season's breakout pitchers. He has added more than 3 strikeouts per nine innings to his rate over 2018. Roger Craig would be proud.
Disappointment: Jurickson Profar. Profar was much improved during his final season with Texas, though he still wasn't the star-level player as the prospect wonks once foresaw. Could the A's finally unlock that potential? So far the answer is no. Profar is hitting under .200 and sports the worst defensive runs saved total (minus-7) of any second baseman in baseball.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
WIN FORECAST: 81.8 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -4.8
DIVISION%: 0.2 | PLAYOFF%: 19.8
PENNANT%: 1.1 | TITLE%: 0.2
Surprise: Ketel Marte. You can check all the online player ID codes you want -- this is indeed the same Ketel Marte. It wasn't that long ago that Marte was a weak-hitting, OK-glove shortstop for the Mariners. Now he's a power-hitting center fielder for the Diamondbacks. The progression of his slugging average over the past four seasons: .323, .395, .437, .518.
Disappointment: Archie Bradley. When the Diamondbacks earned a postseason berth in 2017, Bradley -- developed as a starter -- became a do-everything reliever, too valuable to move out of the bullpen. Now there is some talk that he's too invaluable to stay there. To a certain extent, it's unfair -- Bradley has had some rough hit luck this season and is not too different a hurler than he was in 2018.
16. Cincinnati Reds
WIN FORECAST: 81.3 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +0.6
DIVISION%: 4.6 | PLAYOFF%: 21.5
PENNANT%: 2.1 | TITLE%: 0.6
Surprise: Derek Dietrich. Last season, Dietrich hit 16 homers -- a career best -- in 551 plate appearances. That translates to homers in 2.9% of his trips to the plate. This season, he's already hit 17 dingers, going deep in 11.1% of his PAs. Pose all you want, Derek.
Disappointment: Joey Votto. Expressed as an emoji, this is that frown-with-tears one.
17. Texas Rangers
WIN FORECAST: 80.9 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +1.0
DIVISION%: 0.1 | PLAYOFF%: 10.6
PENNANT%: 0.3 | TITLE%: 0.1
Surprise: Joey Gallo. It has been a remarkable transformation for Gallo. He struck out 2.6 times for every walk in 2017 and was at 2.8 in 2018. This season, that number is 1.8 and he has added 70 points to his batting average. When this guy gets the bat on ball, good things happen.
Disappointment: Rougned Odor. Odor looked as if he had learned the joys of plate discipline in 2018, but the bottom has dropped out of his game this season. He's still walking more than he used to, but the strikeouts are up 10% over last season and he now whiffs one out of every three trips to the plate. He might never get it.
18. Washington Nationals
WIN FORECAST: 78.9 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +0.3
DIVISION%: 5.0 | PLAYOFF%: 10.6
PENNANT%: 0.7 | TITLE%: 0.2
Surprise: Max Scherzer. Certainly nothing positive Scherzer does at this point could be termed a surprise. Still, as disappointing as the Nationals have been, there haven't been many positive developments. Scherzer might be 3-5, but he definitely has not been part of the problem. In fact, his FIP (2.13) is his best yet. The surprise here is that only this year's Nationals could leave a pitcher like Scherzer with a losing record.
Disappointment: Juan Soto. Soto is another unlikely candidate for his slot, because his offensive numbers are almost exactly as they were during his historic rookie season. No, the disappointment here is in the science of forecasting. Not that it's unreasonable, but the assumption by the algorithms is that a player so young would improve markedly, even from a level so high. That's he has stayed the same is more a validation of his performance than a condemnation, but those 5-win forecasts might not come to fruition for Soto just yet.
19. New York Mets
WIN FORECAST: 78.7 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -1.0
DIVISION%: 4.5 | PLAYOFF%: 10.1
PENNANT%: 0.6 | TITLE%: 0.2
Surprise: Pete Alonso. Who was the scout who suggested Alonso would have trouble with non-fastballs during spring training? Alonso, at last check, is on pace to hit 53 home runs and break Aaron Judge's rookie record.
Disappointment: Robinson Cano. All along, it felt as though Cano's performance would be the litmus test for the Mets' offseason approach, and it kind of felt as though it could go either way, just because of Cano's age and the Mets' generally bad karma. So far, it could hardly have gone worse. Cano's worst OPS was .778, his mark as a rookie way back in 2005. This season, he's at .658.
SELLERS
20. Los Angeles Angels
WIN FORECAST: 78.6 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -0.2
DIVISION%: 0.2 | PLAYOFF%: 5.1
PENNANT%: 0.1 | TITLE%: 0.1
Surprise: Tommy La Stella. A 30-year-old who more than doubles his career home run total in just 56 games to start 2019? Yeah, that's a surprise.
Disappointment: Zack Cozart. Cozart has had all sorts of injury problems this season, so you hate to pick on him. Still, his .124/.178/.144 line was compiled over 97 plate appearances. It has been a rough go for Cozart in California.
21. San Diego Padres
WIN FORECAST: 76.2 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -0.2
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 3.5
PENNANT%: 0.2 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Kirby Yates. Yates is such a new name on the dominant-reliever front that you might forget that he's 32 years old and since 2014 has played in the majors for the Rays, Yankees, Angels and, now, Padres. Last season was his first really big campaign, but he's been nearly spotless in a more leveraged role in 2019, allowing just three runs over his first 26 games.
Disappointment: Manny Machado. You sign for $300 million, you've got to do better than .250/.339/.420. Machado will hit better than this. Well, he'd better.
22. Chicago White Sox
WIN FORECAST: 73.2 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +3.3
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.7
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Lucas Giolito. Giolito has been remarkable to watch this season, with his 8-1 start and 2.54 ERA. What's crazy is the only thing he seems to be doing differently is trusting himself to pound the strike zone. It can't really be that easy, can it?
Disappointment: Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez was the first of the in-progress wave of young White Sox starters to hit the majors, unless you count Carlos Rodon as part of this wave. He's really treading water in terms of development this season. Sometimes the stuff is good, and sometimes it disappears without warning. Manager Rick Renteria has tried to give Lopez a long leash. He has been good in third-time-through-the-order spots in the past. This year, he's getting drilled with a 1.225 OPS over 81 batters faced in that situation.
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
WIN FORECAST: 71.4 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +0.5
DIVISION%: 0.1 | PLAYOFF%: 0.6
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Josh Bell. In his age-26 season, Bell has gone from average to awesome -- .330/.393/.678 with 18 homers and 54 RBIs. And he has done it by becoming less disciplined at the plate. If the Bucs actually make a run at a playoff spot, Bell would draw plenty of MVP support.
Disappointment: Chris Archer. Well, let's see. The Pirates traded Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows (and prospect Shane Baz) to the Rays for Archer. Before he was hurt, Glasnow was an early Cy Young front-runner. Meadows is producing like an MVP candidate. Meanwhile, Archer is below replacement. Not good.
24. Seattle Mariners
WIN FORECAST: 67.5 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -5.1
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Daniel Vogelbach. Vogey! Look, it was always apparent that Vogelbach had take-and-rake potential. It's just that his lack of performance in the Show, along with industry trends, left him increasingly looking like a Four-A player. He's doing this at the highest level this year, though, and he's fun to watch.
Disappointment: Domingo Santana. Santana hit 30 homers for Milwaukee a couple of years ago, but his game is one-note enough that when the Brewers' depth improved in 2018, Santana was left without a regular role. His offense has been decent in Seattle, but that defense -- he's at minus-23.8 runs per 150 games, per UZR. That leaves him at roughly replacement level overall.
25. San Francisco Giants
WIN FORECAST: 66.5 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -1.2
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Pablo Sandoval. Given his decline in numbers and once panda-like physique, you had to think Sandoval's days as a positive, regular contributor were likely over. He's hitting .286/.317/.571 in a semiregular niche role, and given his postseason résumé, you have to wonder if the rebuilding Giants will find him a contender for which to contribute during another October run.
Disappointment: Brandon Crawford. At 32, Crawford is hitting .210/.288/.328 with average defensive metrics. This is just one example of why the Giants are rebuilding.
26. Kansas City Royals
WIN FORECAST: 64.3 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -2.9
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Alex Gordon. Hunter Dozier should probably get the nod here because after all, Gordon is a former All-Star. Still, Gordon's season has been amazing. Two years ago, he looked cooked as a hitter, though he still gave the Royals excellent defense and baserunning. He was better last year and this season, at 35, he has his best OPS since 2011.
Disappointment: Ryan O'Hearn. O'Hearn might be too young to really drive any expectations, but the Royals have tried very hard to make him a platoon regular at first base. He's hitting under .200 over 167 at-bats in 2019 and, for his career, he has a .485 OPS in 73 plate appearances against lefties. He has power, but needs to find a way to contact the ball with a modicum of consistency.
27. Detroit Tigers
WIN FORECAST: 64.0 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -2.2
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Matthew Boyd. Wow. Boyd has really emerged, filling the ace void opened up by Michael Fulmer's injury. Boyd has added nearly 3 strikeouts per nine innings over last season and more than doubled his strikeout-to-walk ratio. His FIP has fallen from 4.45 to 2.76. What do those Driveline folks put in the water cooler?
Disappointment: Jeimer Candelario. Candelario wasn't a big-time prospect, but he was a youngish regular who hit 19 homers in the majors last season at age 24. This season, he's hit just two homers in 156 at-bats and was demoted to Triple-A. He was since recalled but is on the injured list with a shoulder problem.
28. Toronto Blue Jays
WIN FORECAST: 63.7 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -4.2
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Ken Giles. Giles has allowed just three runs in 20 innings as Toronto's closer and his strikeout rate (15 per nine) is even higher than it was at his peak in Houston. Having an elite high-leverage short reliever is that important for Toronto, but Giles might look mighty enticing on the trade market, especially for those teams that lost out in the Craig Kimbrel sweepstakes.
Disappointment: Randal Grichuk. Grichuk is in his age-27 season and it might be his worst one yet. He still hits the ball hard and with a good power streak, his average and isolated power numbers can regress to his norm. But he just doesn't seem destined to ever develop the plate discipline he needs to truly become an elite hitter.
29. Miami Marlins
WIN FORECAST: 63.2 | CHANGE FROM MAY: +2.9
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Jorge Alfaro. Meh. Slim pickings here. We could have gone with unheralded Harold Ramirez, of whom nothing was expected yet he's on place to produce more than 2 fWAR. But with just 78 plate appearances, that would be premature. Alfaro is a good catcher who has mostly been what you'd expect. However, he is outperforming his forecast mostly because of a nice power spike at the plate. No, he's no Realmuto, but he's a solid pickup for the Fish.
Disappointment: Starlin Castro. Castro has a club option for next season that has no chance of being exercised, so with a big start at the plate, it's possible he could have attracted some attention on the trade market. He wouldn't have garnered much more than a second- or third-tier prospect and some cash relief for Miami, but he could have been the kind of professional bat some teams like have off the bench for a playoff push. Instead, he's on pace to finish 1.6 wins below replacement.
30. Baltimore Orioles
WIN FORECAST: 56.6 | CHANGE FROM MAY: -2.6
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Surprise: Trey Mancini. Mancini and Pedro Severino have performed well for the woeful Orioles, and if they are lucky, perhaps Baltimore will find them new homes. Mancini sports a 138 OPS+ and can play three corner positions. He's a righty hitter without any kind of platoon split and he is in just his third team-controlled season. That's a résumé that's worth something, right?
Disappointment: Mychal Givens. Givens opened the season as Baltimore's closer, but with a 5.33 ERA and six homers allowed in 25⅓ innings, hopes of manufacturing some trade value for him seem remote.