Have I mentioned yet that it's a bad draft class this year? I've been involved in 18 drafts now, between my time with the Blue Jays and the past 13 years with ESPN, and it's the worst college pitching crop yet, while the high school pitching crop is definitely down from the past few years -- at least where the first round is concerned. There's some depth in the prep class, both hitters and pitchers, so teams with multiple picks may still do very well, but the first round is likely to be dominated by hitters as teams flee to the perceived safety of position players, especially college guys.
1. Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State -- Rutschman is the safest bet to go No. 1 overall. He's a no-doubt catcher and a switch-hitter with plus power, giving him both a high floor -- barring injury, he's at the absolute worst a longtime big leaguer due to his defense -- and the ceiling of someone who will make many All-Star teams because his power output should put him near the top of his position.
2. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal -- Last year's Golden Spikes winner has cooled off just slightly, and is down to (checks notes) .370/.525/.681, so I'm not really sure what my point was with that. He's the best pure bat in the class with a quiet approach and clean right-handed swing that produces hard contact and above-average power, along with probably the best plate discipline in the class. He's also a 5-foot-10, right-handed-hitting first baseman, which gives some teams pause because that's a bad profile historically and because players like him have, in truth, no actual floor.
3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage High School (Texas) -- I'd draw a line below the first two names before the second tier, which comprises the top four prep kids in the class, led by the most famous and oldest among them in Witt. The son of the No. 3 overall pick in the 1985 draft could go even higher (I keep hearing the Royals are focused on him at No. 2) as a true shortstop with potentially plus defense, a huge arm, good instincts and a history of hitting. He does have some backside collapse in his swing and he hasn't faced great competition this spring, which, along with his age (he turns 19 in June), slides him below the two college bats at the top.
4. Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (Seattle) -- Carroll gets raves for his athleticism, speed, feel to hit and range in center field, and he has the hand strength and swing to get to above-average power down the road. In fact, his arm is the only tool that doesn't project to more than average. He's 5-foot-10 and a bit small, which I keep hearing as a negative, but if he were 6-foot-3 he'd be in the mix to go first overall. Given how many hitters who are under 6 feet but have the hand and wrist strength to drive the ball are succeeding in the majors now, this should be a non-issue.
5. C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (Roswell, Georgia) -- Abrams is an 80-grade runner who has the physical ability to stay at shortstop, although he needs more work there and could just end up in center field to take advantage of his ridiculous speed. The only player in the class who is definitely faster is UNC-Wilmington shortstop Greg Jones, who has to move to the outfield and doesn't have Abrams' ability at the plate. Abrams projects to hit for average but not power, with a short, slashing swing that puts the ball in play, and he needs to show better plate discipline to profile as a classic leadoff type who gets on base and uses his speed.
6. Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (Oviedo, Florida) -- Greene cost himself a little bit at this year's National High School Invitational tournament at the USA Baseball complex, showing more swing-and-miss than scouts expected to see from him, although his swing is sound and he has plus hand speed, missing more due to timing than any mechanical issues. He's a future left fielder who needs to work on his reads on fly balls, so the hope is that his hit and power tools both end up above average to plus so that he profiles as at least a regular in a corner.
7. J.J. Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt -- Bleday does it unconventionally -- he looks like he's swinging an ax but doing it uphill -- yet he has produced both at Vanderbilt and on the Cape last summer, including 21 homers so far this spring to tie for the national Division I lead with Kody Hoese at Tulane. He's a right fielder with the arm and power to profile as a regular there all the way to the majors, but teams will have to accept the unorthodox swing as part of the risk.
8. Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State -- Bishop didn't produce at all in his first two years with the Sun Devils but exploded out of the gate this year, briefly leading the country in home runs, showing a better eye while making much harder and more consistent contact at the plate, elevating him from Day 1 afterthought to likely top-10 pick. He's a center fielder now who will end up in left, and he hasn't been as productive in Pac-12 play, doing much more damage against nonconference competition.
9. Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia -- Manoah has turned everything up a notch in the past month. I couldn't have seen him any better, as he was still hitting 95 mph in the ninth inning in a 125-pitch shutout of Texas Tech (and yes, the Mountaineers have consistently pushed Manoah a batter or two further than they should), showing a four-pitch mix with both his changeup and slider working as swing-and-miss offerings. He's physically ready at 6-foot-6, 260 pounds, and other than his habit of pitching exclusively from the stretch, there isn't a concern about his delivery. I think he's the best bet in a terribly weak college pitching crop to become a league-average starter.
10. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian -- Lodolo is the top lefty in the draft, and will probably be the first pitcher drafted this year, as he's been throwing up to the mid-90s along with a huge slider that misses left- and right-handed hitters' bats, with better results across the board this year, including a big cut in his walk rate. He comes from a slightly lower slot than most starters and the slider is often out of the zone, reminiscent of Andrew Miller in college, so there are some very modest concerns about him staying a starter in the long run, but he has at least midrotation upside as well.
11. Matt Allan, RHP Seminole HS (Sanford, Florida) -- Allan is the top prep pitcher in the class thanks to a curveball that is plus right now along with a solid-average fastball that's regularly 92-95 mph but plays a little below that due to lack of life.
12. Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor -- Rutschman is the top catcher in the class, but Langeliers' defense isn't far behind. Although he doesn't have the hit or power tools to match Rutschman, Langeliers is performing well this year, especially in light of a broken hamate bone he suffered in the season's first weekend.
13. Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV -- Stott is an above-average defensive shortstop who has produced at the plate with some help from UNLV's hitter-friendly environment, although there's length to the swing that I think may hurt his ability to hit for average in the long run.
14. JJ Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (Houston) -- Goss will probably get picked in the 20s but on merit belongs a bit higher, as the 6-foot-3 right-hander throws 91-95 mph to go with an above-average slider, showing an improved feel for a changeup and an aggressive approach.
15. Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College -- Rutledge was at the University of Arkansas last spring but transferred to two-year San Jacinto, putting him into this year's draft class, a smart move as he's been regularly clocked throwing up to 98 mph complemented with an upper-80s cutter, and getting some deception from a short arm stroke despite a 6-foot-8 frame.
16. Michael Busch, 1B, North Carolina -- Busch is a disciplined hitter with quick hands and hard contact that has led to solid power production, with 12 homers so far this spring for the Tar Heels, although he's limited to first base and may be below-average there.
17. Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (Texas) -- Baty has some of the best power in the draft class and has good feel to hit too, along with more athleticism than you would expect from someone his size, but third base is very much a work in progress and he'll be 19½ on draft day.
18. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech -- Jung has a strong track record of hitting for average, with his power potential an unanswered question, showing good plate discipline but struggling a bit against better-quality stuff. He's at third base now but will need work to stay there.
19. Will Wilson, SS, NC State -- Wilson is expected to move to second base in pro ball but has shown the power to profile there, with 15 homers last spring and 13 already this year for the Wolfpack. He has plus bat speed but a slightly grooved swing that leads to some swing-and-miss.
20. Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove Community HS (Illinois) -- Priester has been throwing 93-95 mph in shorter stints and was at 90-94 for me in a full-bore outing limited to five innings when his team won via mercy rule. He's a strike-thrower, with an arm action he can repeat, and an above-average curveball he uses for swings and misses and for called strikes.
21. Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy -- Malone has been up and down this spring but did well at NHSI, working with 92-95 mph velocity to go with an above-average breaking ball clocked in the low 80s that he used to miss bats and get called strikes, making up for a fastball that played down from its velocity. With a potentially average changeup, he has the three-pitch mix and the delivery to project as a starter.
22. Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky -- Thompson was hurt much of last spring, missing almost two months with a sore left elbow, but has been healthy so far this spring with an above-average fastball/curveball combination that might put him in the top 10 if he didn't have a medical concern or such late elbow pronation in his delivery.
23. Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy (Statesboro, Georgia) -- Espino was throwing up to 99 mph last summer but has seen his velocity waver this spring, sometimes back in the upper 90s and sometimes down to 90-95, with a hard slider to go with it. But he's a smaller 6-foot right-hander with effort, a category teams have increasingly avoided in the high first round.
24. George Kirby, RHP, Elon -- Kirby wouldn't be a first-rounder in a typical year, but it's a weak college pitching crop and he does have above-average stuff, up to 95 mph velocity along with both an above-average curveball and changeup. He doesn't repeat his arm swing well and the fastball gets hit in the zone.
25. Jack Leiter, RHP, Delbarton School (New Jersey) -- Al's son, Mark's nephew, Mark Jr.'s cousin ... Jack Leiter has a lot of bloodlines in his favor, along with one of the draft's best deliveries and two above-average pitches in the fastball and breaking ball. He's also committed to Vanderbilt and may be unsignable at any price.
26. Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M -- Shewmake is one of the toughest hitters to strike out among top prospects in the draft class, although he also has less power than the other major bats this year. He's not a long-term shortstop and could move to second or third in pro ball.
27. Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson -- Davidson is a true shortstop with power but has scared teams with his proclivity to swing and miss, especially after a dismal showing in the wood-bat Cape Cod League last summer.
28. Nasim Nunez, SS, Collins Hill HS (Suwanee, Georgia) -- One of the draft's best defensive shortstops, Nunez has also begun switch-hitting in the past year so he can gain some extra value from his speed while batting left-handed. He's only 5-foot-9 and, while strong for his size, projects to just 40 power, so he'll need to hit and get on base to profile as a regular.
29. Carter Stewart, RHP, Eastern Florida JC -- The eighth overall pick last year, Stewart has not shown the same quality of stuff this spring as he did in 2018. He's working more with 92-95 mph velocity to go with a curveball that's a 60 rather than a 70, adding a slider and changeup and coming across his body far too much in a delivery that needs an overhaul from professional coaches. I still think he'll slip into the first round to a team that sees opportunity here.
30. Maurice Hampton, OF, Memphis University HS -- A two-sport commit to LSU, Hampton ranks 107th on our football recruiting board as a safety/defensive back, but should be looking at a $2 million bonus in the baseball draft as a strong athlete with some feel to hit, although he has to use his lower half more to unlock his power potential.
31. Jimmy Lewis, RHP, Lake Travis (Texas) HS -- Lewis is a projectable right-hander who's been up to 95 with a promising slider, a good delivery and plenty of athleticism to give hope that he'll still repeat his mechanics even as he fills out.
32. Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane -- Hoese is tied for the Division I lead in homers with 21 and has a solid swing that has always led to high contact rates. He was draft-eligible last year but didn't sign with the Royals as a 35th-round pick. He'll turn 22 in July, so he's the oldest hitter on this list.
33. Ryan Pepiot, RHP, Butler -- Pepiot misses a ton of bats -- he has 103 strikeouts in 62⅔ innings, a 39 percent rate -- with great deception in his delivery and high spin rates, boosted by a power curveball with two-plane break.
34. Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri -- Misner came out of the chute strong but has faltered in SEC play as he's faced better pitching; he has hit .216/.362/.324 in conference play, with a 33 percent strikeout rate. He's extremely toolsy, above average in four of the tools, but you've got to hit first for the others to matter.
35. Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State -- A 6-foot right-hander, Jensen has one of the biggest fastballs in the class, regularly working at 97-99, with a lightning-quick arm, albeit with a long arm action and lack of a plus second pitch.
36. Hunter Barco, LHP, The Bolles School (Jacksonville, Florida) -- Barco can be 90-95 from a low three-quarters slot that gives him deception, especially against left-handed batters, but he has had command and control issues and his breaking ball has been inconsistent. He's a solid athlete who also has plus power as a hitter.
37. Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell -- Johnson came into 2019 with just five innings pitched under his belt, as he's a converted infielder who just started working as a pitcher in his second year at Louisburg JC before transferring to Campbell. He'll sit 92-95 and has touched 97 with a surprisingly good delivery, but his secondary stuff lags, as you might expect.
38. Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS, San Diego -- Cavaco is a solid athlete with a mature frame and some present power, projecting to end up at third or second, with a big step in the bucket at the plate that leads to questions about his long-term hit tool.
39. Chase Strumpf, 2B, UCLA -- UCLA should see several players drafted in the top three or four rounds, led by Strumpf, who first committed to the Bruins as a high school freshman. He's had a down year after a huge sophomore season that saw him hit .363/.475/.633 and still might get him into the sandwich round.
40. Tyler Callihan, INF/C, Providence HS (Jacksonville, Florida) -- Callihan can hit, but he lacks a position. He can really hit, though, with a smooth left-handed swing, bat speed to turn around velocity and enough loft to get to above-average power. And he really has no position, although to his credit, he has tried to catch some and isn't awful back there. I think the team that thinks he has some chance to work out behind the plate is the one that takes him, figuring even a 5 percent chance of a star is worth the shot.
41. Gunnar Henderson, SS, John T. Morgan Academy (Selma, Alabama) -- Henderson is the flavor of the week right now, as his season is about to end and directors have been running in to see him. The basketball/baseball star has some power potential and probably profiles at third base, with questions about his bat speed.
42. Andrew Dalquist, RHP, Redondo Beach (California) HS -- Dalquist is a projection right-hander who's lean and athletic and will flash 94, but pitches at just fringe-average right now. He can spin a breaking ball and has solid command and control for his age, so if he goes to college he's likely to be productive as a freshman even as we wait for his velocity to improve.
43. Sammy Siani, OF, Penn Charter HS (Philadelphia) -- Siani's brother Mike signed an over-slot deal with the Reds in the fourth round last year, and Sammy is probably a little better as a prospect, with more present power, above-average speed and quick hands at the plate.
44. Logan Wyatt, 1B, Louisville -- Wyatt is second in Division I in walks with 51, three behind Rutschman, although he's limited to first base and hasn't shown the big power you'd expect from his 6-foot-4, 230-pound build, producing more doubles power and high OBPs.
45. Blake Walston, LHP, New Hanover HS (Wilmington, North Carolina) -- Walston is one of the few pop-up arms this spring, enticing because he's projectable, won't turn 18 until September and has an above-average breaking ball, although he's considered a tough sign.
46. Josh Wolf, RHP, St. Thomas HS (Bellaire, Texas) -- Wolf has shown arm strength before, but he has calmed down his delivery more this spring, and still has plenty of projection left in his 6-2, 165-170-pound frame, needing work on more consistent secondary stuff.
47. Yordis Valdes, SS, McArthur HS (Hollywood, Florida) -- Valdes is a very young prep shortstop who won't turn 18 until October and projects to stay at the position with future plus defense but a bat that's a few years away.
48. Kyren Paris, SS, Freedom HS (Oakland) -- Paris is a potential plus defender at short and above-average runner who's a long way off with the bat, needing to add strength to show he can turn on velocity when he gets to pro ball and has to use a wood bat.
49. John Doxakis, LHP, Texas A&M -- The most interesting man in the draft will work with a fringy fastball but has a solid pitch mix and good deception as well as plus control.
50. Ethan Small, LHP, Mississippi State -- A redshirt junior who missed a year due to Tommy John surgery, Small hasn't regained his pre-surgery velocity but has improved substantially as a pitcher, with a better breaking ball and better control, striking out 44 percent of the batters he has faced this season.