This year's college pitching crop is the weakest I've seen in the 18 drafts I've witnessed either at ESPN or as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays front office. That's going to be a little scary for teams that tend to flee to the safety of college players in the mid- to late first round when it comes time to make an actual selection and pay someone $2 million. That presents opportunities for the few good college arms in this draft class, including West Virginia right-hander Alek Manoah, who pitched like someone who wanted to go in the top five picks on Friday night against Texas Tech.
Manoah is a large man at age 21, listed at 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, and he backs it up with an arsenal that I think is unmatched in this draft class. Manoah's velocity held at 95 mph from the first inning through the ninth, touching 98 once, with the majority of his fastballs at 95-96 and showing some tailing life on the pitch. He throws a true four-pitch mix, with all three off-speed pitches at least showing above-average, led by a power changeup he throws at 86-88 mph with great arm speed. He throws a curve and a slider with similar velocities yet differing shapes, with the curveball a true two-plane breaker he'd use against right- and left-handed hitters, while the slider was 84-86 mph with more tilt and less roundness; it's more of a chase pitch against right-handers.
Manoah works exclusively from the stretch, which seems trivial to me given his stuff and fairly clean delivery, with an arm slot a little below three-quarters and a stride that puts him right online to the plate. He couldn't have thrown any better on Friday night, with 15 strikeouts and zero walks against the Red Raiders, allowing only two hard-hit balls.
I've spoken to other scouts who have seen Manoah's velocity sit in the 92-94 mph range, breaking out 95-plus later in games when he might need it, so I know Manoah hasn't been this guy every time out. But I don't think there's another college starter in this draft with this kind of complete arsenal and command, so I'd put him in that next tier of players right after the two college bats, Adley Rutschman and Andrew Vaughn, at the top of the 2019 draft.
• Texas Tech third baseman Josh Jung didn't have a great night against Manoah, punching out twice (on a fastball in the zone and a slider well out of it) and grounding out twice, although I doubt he's seen many arms like this at any level of his career to date. Jung does have a simple, quiet approach with a direct path to the ball, with a swing that looks more oriented to line drives than big power.
Jung is rough at third base, not as agile as a typical third baseman in the majors would be, with below-average hands, showing arm strength but a strange throwing motion. We've seen plenty of players who seemed poorly suited to third base become much better in pro ball -- Nolan Arenado comes to mind, as does Atlanta prospect Austin Riley -- so I'm not writing Jung off at third by any means, but I'd like to see more power because he's going to stay on a corner.
• Texas Tech right-handed reliever John McMillon threw 3 ⅔ hitless innings and looks like a typical college reliever who gets picked in Rounds 6-10, with a good arm and below-average command. He was mostly throwing 95-97 mph velocity, coming right over the top with a high-effort delivery, and also showed a low-80s changeup and slurvy 82-83 mph breaking ball.
• The Red Raiders have moved infielder Gabe Holt around the diamond a little bit, and he started in right field on Friday night, which is not the right position for him, for multiple reasons, including a lack of arm strength. He's an above-average runner with some contact skills and probably well-below-average power, and struggled a little on the bases. He did have three of Texas Tech's four hits off Manoah, one a generous scoring call (I thought it was an E6) and one a hard-hit line drive right back up the box. I could see him going in Rounds 4-6.