This year's field for the National High School Invitational -- a 16-team tournament held each spring at the USA Baseball complex in Cary, North Carolina -- was very promising, with three likely first-round prospects, another who would be a first-rounder if he were clearly willing to sign this June, and many prospects for the second through fifth rounds. I attended the first two days and, in general, saw great work from the best pitching prospects but was rather disappointed with the premium bats.
• Right-hander Brennan Malone of IMG Academy in Florida was the star of the first day, pitching in the last game of the day at Coleman Field, the stadium at USA Baseball's complex in Cary. Malone was 92-95 for much of his start, tapering off toward the end of his outing, and threw the fastball for strikes. His slider was 80-82, and he had great confidence in the pitch, using it regularly for called strikes to left- and right-handed hitters. He showed a slower curveball that was more of a show-me pitch and a solid changeup that he trusted enough to double-up on, even to a righty. Malone has a very quick arm and a compact arm action, extending well over his front side, but his fastball doesn't seem to miss bats in the zone like I'd expect. He would be a possible first-rounder in any draft class, but this year, he's clearly one, and he's one of a few candidates for the title of second-best prep arm in the class after Matt Allan.
• It was a tougher slog for the high-profile prep hitters at the event, including Hagerty High School (Oviedo, Florida) center fielder Riley Greene, who started his NHSI with a swinging strikeout and never quite got on track. His most consistent issue was just mistiming pitches -- out in front of offspeed stuff, late on a couple of fastballs -- so while his swing itself looked good and he has great hand speed as a hitter, it would be hard to claim he has an above-average hit tool based on this week. He ran better than I had anticipated, and I would think he could end up above average on defense in an outfield corner, but his reads in center this week weren't good.
• C.J. Abrams showed his tools better this week, although he also swung and missed more than you'd like for a premium high school prospect. Abrams, from Blessed Trinity HS in Georgia, is an 80 runner who has the tools to stay at shortstop and maybe end up above average there, although there also were moments when he seemed unaware of game situations and failed to cover a base he should have covered. At the plate, however, he has a flat swing, and he waved at a handful of pitches on which he was either too late to start his hands or simply had no chance to make contact even with a good swing. Both he and Greene are considered likely top-five picks by execs I've asked, but I don't think either helped his cause this week.
• Jack Leiter of Delbarton HS in Morristown, New Jersey, is indeed the son of longtime big leaguer and current broadcaster Al Leiter, who was in attendance at the event and saw his son dominate in an outing on Thursday night. Leiter was sitting 90-92 early, touching 94, and had his way with a weak lineup -- his team won 17-0 -- by pounding the strike zone with the fastball and an above-average to plus curveball at 74-77 that he threw to right- and left-handed hitters. His delivery is the cleanest I've seen on a pitcher so far this spring, and he's right on line to the plate every time. Leiter is committed to Vanderbilt and is expected to be a very difficult sign, if he's signable at all, but he has come out like a first-rounder so far this spring, and I would expect teams with the largest bonus pools to try to coax him into a pro career given how good he has looked and how weak this draft is.
• Kendall Williams, Malone's teammate at IMG, threw on Thursday against Abrams' Blessed Trinity squad, punching out 10 in six innings while sitting 90-92 with what looked like two distinct breaking balls and an 81-83 mph changeup. He's more projectable than Malone or Leiter at 6-foot-6 and starting to fill out, with a huge stride toward the plate that's so long his arm can be a tick late as he tries to catch up. I could definitely see him ending up with a fastball that's consistently 94-95, and the curveball especially looks like it'll be a weapon -- he trusted it enough to throw it to the inside corner against right-handers to try to get a called strike. He's committed to Vanderbilt, too.
• Some quick hits on other prospects of note in the event: Catcher Darius Perry (La Mirada HS, California) has improved by leaps and bounds behind the plate from last summer but now needs to show he can do more in the batter's box, with a powerful but somewhat grooved swing and too much noise before he really gets the bat head going, which I think might be part of why he swung and missed a lot. ... Outfielder Jason Hodges (Marist HS, Chicago) has a great baseball build and frame, but he's well behind where he needs to be at the plate, as he didn't work the count at all and showed a long swing with his weight on his front side too early. ... Right-hander Landon Sims (South Forsyth HS, Cumming, Georgia) was 88-91 with no fastball life and had trouble throwing strikes, with a cross-body delivery that results from him starting on the extreme third-base side of the rubber. ... IMG's Josh Rivera, a third baseman committed to Florida, took some solid at-bats and played well at third, although I think he's in the range in the draft where he'd be better served going to college and trying to work his way up to the top two rounds. ... Two 2020 prospects of note: RHP/3B Jared Jones of La Mirada was 92-94 with a very fast arm and a power 80-81 mph curveball with very tight spin, although there's some violence in his delivery and he showed below-average command and control; right-hander Max Rajcic of Orange Lutheran was 88-91 and missed a lot of bats with his fastball in and above the zone, pairing it with a big two-plane curveball at 76-78.
• Elon right-hander George Kirby could sneak into the last part of the first round on the back of his three-pitch mix and the general paucity of college starters in this year's draft, although I think there are enough reasons to think he might be a reliever in the long run and that he's more of a second-rounder in a typical class. Kirby pitched at Towson University on Saturday but was roughed up for 10 hits and five runs in four innings. Kirby was 90-96 for most of his outing, with about a 2 mph drop-off when working from the stretch (so 92-96 from the windup, 90-94 from the stretch), with an above-average changeup at 85-87 with good arm speed and fading action and an inconsistent curveball at 78-84 that generally had good shape but which Kirby didn't always finish well out front. His delivery isn't great; his front leg is very stiff when he lands, and his arm is late, without a ton of hip rotation to help generate velocity. He has a good pitcher's build at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds and definitely has room to fill out, but I think the probability of him having starter command and holding up is too low for him to be a first-rounder.