This year's MLB draft class is weak in many ways. It's one of the weakest I've ever seen at the upper echelon, and it is the weakest college starting pitching crop I've ever seen, period, with maybe two pitchers right now whom I would call first-rounders (WVU's Alex Manoah and Elon's George Kirby). The strength of the class, if there is one, is in college bats, and over the past week I saw four of the best in the group, including the current No. 1 prospect in the class, Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman.
Rutschman is a switch-hitter with power who has shown plus skills behind the plate, maybe more than just plus when it comes to receiving, and a plus arm as well. On Friday night against Cal, he was pitched around a bit, with one intentional walk and one semi-intentional one, but batted both left- and right-handed and had a few cuts both ways. His left-handed swing is much better and looks more natural, in large part because he repeats it so well, with good hip rotation and a strong back side. He turns his front foot over through every swing, though -- a "soft front side" -- which pulls him open through contact and can make a hitter pull pitches foul that one who stays more closed would keep fair. His right-handed swing has more effort to it and his back side collapses, which will pose a problem for contact going forward, although since he'll only bat right-handed infrequently this isn't as much of a concern.
Rutschman didn't have to make a game throw against Cal, who won 3-2 in a game that had nine minutes of action and 34 minutes of Oregon State mound visits, but showed soft, steady hands behind the plate despite a parade of different pitchers. He doesn't have to hit that much to be the best prospect in the class, since he's a no-doubt catcher with power, and has at least shown good plate discipline throughout his career to date (109 walks against 91 strikeouts in two-plus seasons, with a 29-12 ratio this year).
The difference between him and players typically taken at No. 1 overall is one of degrees -- there are little areas for concern here that you might not typically see with a first overall pick. Right now, though, I don't see anyone here likely to surpass him.
• The best pure hitter in the class is Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn, who won the Golden Spikes Award last year by hitting .402/.531/.819, although he benefited, then and now, from weak pitching in the Pac-12. He's off to a similarly absurd start, and there's little doubt that he has that average/OBP/power combination given how he works the count and his smooth right-handed swing, with great balance and what looks like a good angle for power in his follow-through. He's going to be a first baseman in pro ball, with maybe 30 speed and no real skills to play another position, but he was fine there on Friday and doesn't look like he'll end up a DH like many college sluggers do.
The track record of bat-first college first basemen going high in the draft isn't great, but Vaughn has hit better than most of those guys, continues to do so, and at least shows the plate discipline and mechanics to continue to produce. I can't imagine he slips beyond the top five and would think he's a dark horse to go 1-1 if Baltimore wants to cut a deal or has any reservations about Rutschman.
• Arizona State center fielder Hunter Bishop didn't hit for two years as a Sun Devil but is rapidly making up for lost time, as he leads Division I at this writing with 14 homers after hitting just 10 in his first two years. He has also already set a season high in walks with 20. Bishop's power is at least a 70; the Sun Devils tweeted that his first homer in the game I saw on Wednesday night had an exit velocity of 113 mph and launch angle of 24 degrees, which I believe MLB's Statcast folks would call a Barrel2.
The younger brother of Mariners outfielder Braden Bishop, Hunter is a solid athlete but not as talented a runner or fielder as Braden is, and likely ends up in left field between his middling speed and 40-grade arm. His swing works top to bottom, boosted by what must be exceptional hand or forearm strength to drive the ball the way he does. I'd like to see how his plate discipline holds up in conference play, as he seemed to misfire a bit on off-speed stuff on Wednesday, but it's hard to pick apart a two-homer night with another hard-hit lineout.
A few scouts have compared his ascent to that of Hunter Renfroe, who was unproductive his first two years at Mississippi State and then rocketed to the 13th overall pick in 2013. If the draft were held today, Bishop would probably go even higher.
• UNLV shortstop Bryson Stott is also a probable first-rounder, likely to go in the top half of the round if he continues to perform at the plate, since he's a true shortstop with at least average power. In Tuesday's game against Cal State Northridge, Stott showed everything you would want from a defender at short -- good hands, range both ways, and a 60 arm, as well as good instincts. At the plate, though, I see real cause for concern; his swing gets very long from first movement to contact, so while there's power when he gets there, he's going to swing and miss a lot. I also thought his two-strike approach was lacking, more of an emergency swing to try to avoid the swing and miss. He might still be in the back of the first round range for me, given his defensive potential, but I think there's a real question whether he's going to hit.
• Cal center fielder Brandon McIlwain is back and playing again after a four-year odyssey that saw him matriculate at South Carolina a semester early, missing a potential seven-figure payday by skipping the MLB draft, after which he got all of 10 at-bats at South Carolina before transferring to Cal and missing another spring due to the NCAA's anti-player transfer rules. In four springs and three summers, he's had 208 total at-bats between South Carolina, Cal, and two stints in summer leagues, and it showed at the plate, where he looked unable to pick up different pitch types at all. His body looks great and he's running plus, but he is several hundred at-bats behind where he would have been had he signed out of high school or gone to a college where he'd have played regularly.
• Oregon State's leadoff hitter, Alex McGarry, is a redshirt sophomore and thus draft-eligible this year, and he has bounced back extremely well from a broken hamate bone that kept him off the field for all of 2018. He's hitting .356/.484/.603, second on the Beavers in all three categories behind Rutschman, with a simple left-handed swing that produces hard line-drive contact. He's a left fielder without the speed for center, and played some first base on Friday night, but if he continues to hit like this through conference play he's going to end up drafted in the first couple of rounds.