Dallas Keuchel generally aims at the area just off the outside corner on his arm side -- for the lefty, that means that little alley between the plate and the inside of the left-handed batter's box. He aims at that airspace, he has made his living in that airspace, far exceeding what anybody thought possible in his career, winning the Cy Young Award in 2015 and dominating the Yankees for six scoreless innings in that year's wild-card game.
He's coming off a year in which he had a 3.74 ERA in an American League-leading 34 starts for the Astros, and he could help any rotation.
But Keuchel, born on New Year's Day in 1988, continues to dangle in the free-agent market, under lousy circumstances for him.
The recent industry wariness of performance (and investment) in players in their early to mid-30s has been well-established. But Keuchel has this working against him as well: Teams target high velocity; they train pitchers for high velocity; they trust high velocity. And Keuchel doesn't throw hard.
Of the 57 pitchers who threw enough innings to qualify for ERA titles last season, Keuchel ranked 55th in average fastball velocity -- at 89.3 mph. Only Mike Leake and Kyle Hendricks finished below him in that category. James Shields was 54th, at 89.4 mph.
When the right-handed Leake was a free agent, before the 2016 season, he got $80 million over five years from the Cardinals, but he was three years younger than Keuchel is now, and even just a few years ago, the industry perspective on velocity was different. Shields got $75 million over four years from the Padres before the 2015 season.
J.A. Happ is five years older than Keuchel, at 36. Like Keuchel, he's left-handed, with a little more fastball juice -- he ranked 33rd among the 57 qualified starters in average fastball velocity, at 92 mph. Last season, he had a 3.65 ERA while pitching for the Blue Jays and Yankees, numbers very similar to those of Keuchel.
Some teams that had interest in Happ also did work on Keuchel, understandably, before being scared away by the asking price, and as the Happ bidding played out -- back in early December -- the question was whether any of the interested teams would be willing to give Happ more than a two-year offer. Eventually, the Yankees separated from the pack by arranging terms on a vesting option on a third year. Happ will be paid $17 million annually, and if he throws 165 innings or makes 27 starts in 2020, he'll get another $17 million in 2021.
When Happ signed, there were a lot of teams with a lot of available money. But the landscape is now very different for Keuchel: This late in the offseason, there are far fewer teams willing to spend in the range of what Happ got, because some have exhausted their budget space or are bumping against the luxury tax. Keep this in mind, as well: Keuchel turned down the Astros' qualifying offer of $17.9 million and could be attached to draft pick compensation.
The Phillies seem to have limited interest in Keuchel, and already have sacrificed their top pick to sign Bryce Harper, but they seem unlikely to offer anything beyond a very short-term deal. The Astros haven't been engaged on Keuchel in recent weeks, and while it's possible they could welcome him back, they might want to discount his deal because it's increasingly unlikely he'll be ready at the outset of this season, and because Houston would lose the draft pick compensation it might've gotten if Keuchel had signed elsewhere.
The Padres could use a veteran starter, but they have already spent big on Manny Machado this winter. Keuchel might make sense for the Dodgers if Clayton Kershaw were shut down to the degree that L.A. could count on insurance money, but Kershaw has played catch three of the past four days and seems to be progressing.
For a pitcher as accomplished as Keuchel, there will always be interest, but the clubs that seriously consider him now are vultures, more than likely, looking for a player whose market has been damaged.
The market conditions for an unsigned starting pitcher, with Opening Day just 24 days away, are ugly.