It finally happened! Just over a week after Manny Machado signed with the San Diego Padres, Bryce Harper is headed to the Philadelphia Phillies. If your team missed out on the two most coveted stars of the winter, there is still some hope for a late splash -- but the pool of available players thins out fast.
The big two
Dallas Keuchel (3.3 WAR): It's easy to see why the analytics departments would say Keuchel is a bad risk at $100 million, if that is indeed what he was expecting. He doesn't throw hard, he's 31, the strikeout rate isn't good and he had some shoulder issues in 2016 and a neck problem in 2017. Still, this is the kind of bulldog you'd love to have on a staff, and I view him like Mark Buehrle, as a guy I think will continue to remain effective into his mid-30s.
Craig Kimbrel (1.7 WAR): At this point, you have to wonder whether Kimbrel's best chance at a big multiyear deal is if somebody gets hurt in spring training. The Red Sox are ready to move on, with Dave Dombrowski and team chairman Tom Werner both calling his return extremely unlikely in recent days. His yips last October didn't help, no matter his track record as one of the most dominant closers of all time.
Veterans who might provide help
Gio Gonzalez (1.8 WAR): He still projects as essentially a league-average starter, although his walk rate increased to borderline unacceptable and his strikeout rate declined. His history of durability should be viewed as a plus. Oakland still feels like a possible destination. Or how about San Diego, as a less expensive alternative to Keuchel, where he'd be somebody who can hold down a rotation spot for a season until some of the kids are ready.
Denard Span (0.8 WAR): Span is coming off a solid 1.9-WAR season, although he was below replacement level in 2017, when the Giants played him in center field and he was a defensive liability. Basically, you're looking at a second-division starter or a fourth outfielder on a good team. Maybe a return to San Francisco to play left field, unless they really believe in their kids.
Adam Jones (0.6 WAR): That projection explains why there hasn't been much interest in Jones. The defense clearly no longer plays in center field, the OBP has always been low and the power dropped to just 15 home runs. He could probably help somebody -- like the Indians -- as a platoon corner guy, but that's not somebody you want to give $10 million to.
Carlos Gonzalez (0.3 WAR): Meh. The players can whine that the owners are screwing them over, but Gonzalez has been worth 0.2 WAR combined the past two seasons. Look, he was a really good player at his peak, but he can't hit lefties, he had a sub-.700 OPS on the road last year, and his defense is average at best and maybe worse. He'd be a nice veteran pinch hitter/role player, but that player barely exists anymore. Really, these 13-man pitching staffs are what's hurting a lot of these veterans more than some deep conspiracy to not pay them. Gonzalez will land somewhere, and it wouldn't be shocking if he has a good season, but I wouldn't want to pay too much to find out.
Worth a flier for someone
Martin Maldonado (0.7 WAR): A good defensive catcher who can't hit, but if Jeff Mathis can get a two-year, $6.25 million deal, Maldonado should be able to get something similar.
Logan Morrison (1.0 WAR): He mashed 38 home runs for the Rays in 2017, and the Twins seemed to get him on a bargain, one-year deal. Instead he battled injuries and hit .186. He wasn't that good in 2015 and 2016. It wouldn't shock me if he has played his last game in the majors.
Carlos Gomez (0.3 WAR): Struggled to a .208/.298/.336 line with the Rays, but he had a 1.7 WAR season with the Rangers in 2017. He's now 33, a better defender in right than center, and comes with some baggage, which is one reason he has played for four teams in the past four seasons. Again, the players can cry about the free-agent freeze, but I don't see any reason to pay Gomez $5 million when there's little upside and a younger player might provide the same production for the league minimum. That's the simple reality for a lot of these guys.
Evan Gattis (1.1 WAR): Again, there's not going to be much demand for a DH coming off a .284 OBP, even if he did belt 25 home runs in 407 at-bats. He caught only four innings last year but ostensibly could still be a backup or third-string catcher. Another type of player whose roster spot has been taken up by extra relievers.
Relief pitchers
Among those unsigned are Ryan Madson (who indicated he may sit out the season), Tony Sipp, Jim Johnson and Nick Vincent. Have arm, will travel. Any of these guys could help a team in 2019 or post a 5.50 ERA. They're relievers.