Via WAR, Manny Machado has been a six-win player in three of the past four years, missing when he had some terrible luck on balls in play in the first half of 2017 -- even though his batted-ball data remained consistent -- and he has reached 5.0 WAR in four of his five full, healthy seasons in the majors. He's an elite defensive third baseman who could slide over to shortstop if needed, although the San Diego Padres actually need him far more at third. And he has enough power to hit 25 to 30 homers despite playing half his games at Petco Park.
The Padres had the worst team on-base percentage in the majors last season at .297, with a .301 OBP from their third basemen and a below-average weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 94. Machado will be an immediate boost across the board to their offense, and the player he's actually replacing (probably rookie Ty France) wasn't likely to be worth more than about a win even in an optimistic scenario. They were looking at below-average defense at third in 2019, just as they got in 2018, and maybe average offense this year. Machado is easily a five-win improvement and could be more.
The Padres' window of contention likely starts next year, rather than right now, since their first wave of high-ceiling prospects -- Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack, Luis Urias and Francisco Mejia -- likely will reach the majors to stay this season and form the core of a 90-win Padres roster in 2020 and beyond. Machado's presence makes it easier to forecast that the team will get to that level. I don't think they were more than a 70- to 75-win team this year, depending in large part on how much and how well those rookies play for the big club, but I had already written in a few places that I thought they might contend in 2020 and very likely would by 2021.
This deal bumps that schedule up a year, as by 2020 all four of those prospects would have at least half a season of major league experience. In 2018, the Padres had just three hitters qualify for the batting title and not one was a league-average hitter. Between internal options and now the addition of Machado, they should have above-average offensive production at six lineup spots for 2020 -- and that's before thinking about how much better their defense will be with Machado, Tatis and Urias manning their infield.
As a result of the deal, the Padres do have a top-20 prospect in their system who's now blocked, third baseman Hudson Potts. He's about two years away from the majors but would have significant trade value either now or -- if they wait -- in July if he goes off in Double-A. Potts has plus power and has made himself into a competent defender at third. He has performed well despite being young for every level at which he has played, since he was a 17-year-old senior when he was drafted in the first round, but is vulnerable to velocity inside and likely will be challenged more this year with a promotion to Double-A. I think he's a regular, a low-OBP slugger who can probably play average defense.
With the modern emphasis on players who can produce while they're making little to nothing over the minimum, Potts could be one of the two lead prospects in a deal for a major starting pitcher. That is still the team's biggest need as the Padres wait for their best pitching prospects, nearly all of whom spent 2018 in High-A or Low-A, to reach the majors.
The National League West also just got a bit more competitive for 2019, which may not mean much for the Padres' odds of contending but does make life harder for the other teams in the division that might be hoping to compete for a wild-card spot, notably the Dodgers and Rockies. It's probably a marginal difference, but with playoff spots often decided by a single game, it's at least worth noting that the teams in the West now have a slightly tougher schedule than they did a few days ago.
And finally, how nice is it to see a major league team spending money instead of telling us they don't have any? The Padres are hardly a large-market club -- I have to think they'd feel better about their payroll if they could dump Eric Hosmer's albatross of a contract -- yet they saw the value in adding a six-win player who filled a long-term need and whose most productive years should align with their next window of contention. Coming just 24 hours after the Cubs' owner made the disingenuous claim that his team had no more money -- not that the Cubs didn't want to spend it but that they actually didn't have it, as if they were at risk of missing payroll next Thursday or something -- this is news that all baseball fans should welcome.