One of the clown-sized shoes on the feet of the 2018-19 free-agent season has finally dropped: According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, Manny Machado has agreed to a 10-year, $300 million contract with the ... San Diego Padres?
Believe it. And believe that it makes sense.
Machado, 26, now owns the largest free-agent contract in the annals of American sports. It's a new mark that may not survive the week, as our attention now turns to the other one of Bozo's dangling kicks, Bryce Harper. With Machado's Dan Lozano-negotiated deal done, that gives Harper's agent, Scott Boras, an obvious final hurdle to clear in bringing his own talks to the finish line. There is no reason why both players should not be in a training camp by the end of the week.
These numbers are staggering in a real-world sense but work fine in the skewed economics of 21st-century professional sports. The $300 million target is kind of ironic, though, now that Machado has hit it. It's the number we've been bandying about for months, so you have to wonder, if a team was willing to meet that price, why on earth did it take so long?
In any event, most of our pre-free-agency stabs at valuing Machado's future justify both the length and the dollars he now actually has coming his way. So it would be disingenuous to suggest that the Padres have overpaid. Projecting 10 years out is always dicey, but Machado can produce $300 million in value in half that time.
On the intangibles front, in San Diego, Machado has a chance to be huge, on the field and off it, as a face of the Padres' budding turnaround. First off, one hard slide at Dodger Stadium could embed him in the collective hearts of Friars fans forever. More than that, this is a franchise that badly needs a hero.
To be sure, Machado is a lightning rod. He has done some dumb things on the field and is famously no Richie Ashburn when it comes to running out ground balls. But when you think about fan acceptance, Machado tends to inspire mass booing, but only in opposing ballparks, not his own. By all appearances, Machado has been well-liked by his teammates. If he produces and the Padres win, this will not be a public relations issue.
Besides, last year's free-agent splash, Eric Hosmer, can be the soul of the rebuild, assuming his production rebounds. He's the firebrand go-getter that Machado does not seem to be. But Machado is the superstar, a free-agent unicorn whom San Diego is locking down early in his prime. His presence takes the heat off the Padres' brightest homegrown bulbs, like Luis Urias and Keith Law's No. 1 overall prospect, Fernando Tatis Jr. The addition of Machado might force some of these young guys to diversify their defensive profile, but that can be worked out.
"Either [Machado or Harper], they are a generational talent," Hosmer said Monday. "They're guys who have done so well, at such a young age, and have so much more left in the tank."
Machado's low-key demeanor is a good fit for the market. For one thing, he won't have to start talking in actual language, as opposed to the clichéd athlete-speak with which he is so comfortable. He doesn't have to climb any trees to rescue any kittens. All he has to do is mash and pay homage to Tony Gwynn and Ted Williams. Then he'll be the biggest deal in San Diego since Ron Burgundy.
From a cold, analytical standpoint, barring injury, the risk the Padres are taking on is comparatively light for a contract of this scope. Again, this all begins with Machado's age and record of production, the biggest factors in all lengthy free-agent deals. Through baseball history, there have been just four shortstops/third basemen who have exceeded Machado's 33.8 WAR by the age of 25. The list:
Alex Rodriguez (46.4)
Arky Vaughan (39.4)
Eddie Mathews (39.0)
Cal Ripken Jr. (34.6)
Machado is the only other one above 30 WAR. That quintet is composed of three Hall of Famers and Rodriguez, who isn't yet eligible but is of obvious Hall of Fame quality. Machado is also consistent, having posted batting lines better than league average in all six of his full seasons, three of them at least 30 percent better than average. He did this while playing often-elite defense, save for his half-season at shortstop last season in Baltimore.
Machado has averaged 5.4 WAR over those six full seasons as he eases into his prime. If healthy -- and Machado has averaged 159 games over the past four seasons -- he's a good bet to justify his deal. That's even before you take into account any extra revenue derived by the Padres for contending seasons, Machado merchandise sales and any boost he may contribute to at the ticket office.
The competitive part of this is the key, of course. Historically, when the Padres have been at their apex on the field, they've drawn well, but the correlation hasn't been as strong since they moved into Petco Park in 2004. After the initial four years of a Petco honeymoon, the Padres have hovered around 11th or so in NL attendance.
Driving that is the fact that the Pads have enjoyed just one winning season since 2008. We can't know for sure if a clear open window of contention will likewise open up the turnstiles, boosting the Padres from the 2.1 million fans they've tended to draw in recent years up to the 3 million mark they cracked the first year the park was open. The ticket sales in San Diego this week might give us an indication of what kind of hibernating fan base has been lying in wait in that market. Last year's number, after the Hosmer signing, was virtually identical to the 2016 number.
The possibility of entering new attendance territory in the long run will ultimately hinge on the development of San Diego's prospects, perhaps the finest group in baseball. With Machado now anchoring this budding roster and bringing the entire rebuild into focus, the Padres have filled the toughest hole there is to fill -- the cornerstone piece. But Machado can't be the only brick in the foundation and, happily enough, the organization is well-positioned to complement him with cost-controlled, high-ceiling talent.
"This just shows where this organization is at," Hosmer said Monday before the deal was struck, "Where we're at, at the process right now, [is] trying to win baseball games. ... It's exciting; it's motivating. Just the talk of having [players like Machado] around here, you can feel the energy in camp."
The payoff may not be immediate. The Padres stack up as a 79-80 win team even after adding Machado and could use some quality veteran innings for their rotation. The only middle-tier or better starter remaining on the free-agent market is lefty Dallas Keuchel, who would fit on the field, but that puts San Diego into the area of "crazy spending."
While some might question the timing here, we can revert to the knowledge of just how scarce free agents at the level of Machado and Harper really are. If San Diego general manager A.J. Preller had taken a cautious approach to this offseason, it probably wouldn't have ruffled many feathers. It wouldn't have generated much enthusiasm either, but patience is always an easy excuse. However, when you survey the free-agency landscape through a multiyear prism, you don't see many comparable talents hitting the market so young. If you have the resources, you have to be in on all such players. There is no guarantee that such an impact player can be signed down the line. When opportunities like this knock, you have to answer the door.
For a couple of days, at least, the Padres are the talk of baseball and the toast of Southern California. The blue-clad fans to the north side are grumbling after the Dodgers' winter of relative inactivity. This will all ebb when the season starts, as the Dodgers are sure to contend once again even without a splashy acquisition, while the Padres likely will not. But here in early spring training, the Padres have served notice that they will not cede the NL West to their hated rivals. That in itself has likely already earned Machado a warm place in San Diego's baseball heart.
This month, down in Arizona, the Padres have stolen the spotlight. After the lights dim and the notebooks are closed, it will be time to get to work, for Machado and for all those young players trying to join him at Petco Park. From there, it's all up to Machado. The opportunity before him is immense.
All it will take is work and effort. That's not too much to ask for $300 million, is it?
Now, Mr. Harper, the next shoe to drop is yours.