Executives with other teams have watched the machinations of the Los Angeles Dodgers this winter with a couple of competing thoughts:
First, that Andrew Friedman, who heads up baseball operations for the Dodgers, does not like to sign big, expensive deals. He could have had Giancarlo Stanton last winter and he passed, because he would have had to absorb a big, expensive contract at a time when the Dodgers were cutting payroll.
Second, that the Dodgers seem to be setting up for a big, expensive move. Named Bryce Harper.
Friedman carved out space in his payroll and roster for something along those lines by basically trading three pricey players for one, dealing outfielders Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig and pitcher Alex Wood in return for pitcher Homer Bailey, who is not expected to ever appear in a game for L.A.
Last winter, the Dodgers made an even more imaginative deal to create some financial space, dumping what was left of Adrian Gonzalez in a complicated trade with the Atlanta Braves, who had budget room to make the move. This year, the Dodgers used the Cincinnati Reds' desire to win -- owner Bob Castellini has told peers his club is making a push -- and willingness to add payroll to move some dollars. One of Friedman's peers referred to it as "baseball money-laundering." The Dodgers are shedding about $15 million or so, while the Reds are taking on about $7 million.
The Dodgers are now better prepared to add salary, and they have holes to fill. Moving forward, their challenge will be to find some acceptable middle ground in a negotiation with Harper and his agent, Scott Boras -- somewhere between the record-setting contract that Boras seeks for his client, and for years and dollars that Friedman can live with.
Harper is perfect for the Dodgers in many ways. He hits home runs, he gets on base, he seems to love the October moment, and he would give the franchise the kind of star that L.A. clubs typically need. But if Boras gets his way, the 26-year-old Harper would get a contract that could last until the end of his career -- with a couple of contractual opt-outs and a full no-trade clause along the way.
This is the sort of contract that Friedman passed on last winter, in Stanton.
On a contract of 10 to 12 years, the Dodgers could be taking a gamble that Harper could continue as a National League player into his mid-to-late 30s, manning the outfield. It's possible that in the years ahead, the NL will adopt the designated hitter, but at the moment that is not assured, and last season Harper posted some of the worst defensive metrics in baseball.
There is a working theory among evaluators that Harper, understanding that his free agency loomed, did what he needed to do to stay on the field last summer, shying away from the fences that he had the habit of challenging early in his career. As the theory goes: Once Harper picks his next team and is guaranteed hundreds of millions, he'll be more aggressive in the outfield.
But since Friedman took over the Dodgers, he has generally shied away from this kind of risk, limiting his big-ticket signings in their scope. Kenley Jansen got five years in his deal, Justin Turner four. When Zack Greinke got too pricey, Friedman was not coaxed out of his negotiating position to match the record-setting offer that Greinke received from the Diamondbacks.
Friedman does have the payroll flexibility, as one rival evaluator noted, to make a creative offer with fewer years. In most long-term contracts, club executives understand that in the first years, they are paying the elite free agent less than what the player is actually worth, and then later, as the player's production regresses, he makes the same or even a little more -- which is a way of deferring salary.
The Dodgers could try to sign Harper by paying him what his true value is immediately. Maybe $40 million annually, maybe more. Maybe they offer Harper a three- or four-year deal for the highest annual salary in baseball history, and give Harper a chance to go back out in the market in three or four years, at age 29 or 30.
Officials with other clubs and agents don't believe that Boras would do this. They think Boras would try to fully maximize the greatest leverage he possesses now -- a potential superstar at age 26 -- to get the most guaranteed dollars he can. Alex Rodriguez, a Boras client, got $252 million in a 10-year deal with the Rangers, and then after Rodriguez opted out of that contract in 2007, another 10-year deal, for $280 million. Boras negotiated Mark Teixeira's 10-year deal.
But the great unknown to this point is what Harper really wants. Does he want to set the record for the biggest contract ever, regardless of whether it's with the Phillies or the White Sox or the Giants or some team other than the Dodgers? Or does he really want to play in L.A., which some club evaluators believe. Often, free agents at the top of the market feel an obligation to the union to take the biggest offer on the table, which is how CC Sabathia initially landed with the Yankees, rather than on a team in his home state of California: The Yankees' $161 million proposal dwarfed the Angels' offer of $100 million, the second-best deal on the table.
But if Harper has alternatives from which to choose, so too does Friedman. He could take the more conservative route to improve the 2018 Dodgers. He could give up the prospects necessary to trade with the Miami Marlins to acquire J.T. Realmuto, baseball's best catcher last season, and then sign the second-best free-agent outfielder on the board, A.J. Pollock, a center fielder who is much better defensively than Harper.
The Dodgers' lineup would be deep and balanced, and might look like this:
CF Pollock
SS Corey Seager
3B Justin Turner
2B Max Muncy
C Realmuto
1B Cody Bellinger
LF Joc Pederson/Enrique Hernandez
RF Chris Taylor/Alex Verdugo
Pollock might require a four-year deal at most, for a lot less money, and Friedman could maintain the Dodgers' financial flexibility. That's probably the smart play, the disciplined play.
But conservative choices don't necessarily sell a lot of jerseys, either. Bryce Harper would, and generate a lot of homers and hair-flips along the way.